Let's give that poll the benefit of the doubt and assume it's right. Do you suppose it's possible that the issue might be more salient in Ohio than it is nationwide since the situation is playing out in their backyard? Because at least in this thread, the discussion is about Ohio.
I'd have to know more about the current situation on the ground in New York. I don't hear so much about busloads of immigrants coming in from Texas anymore. Is that still happening? And even if it's stopped, is the city still struggling with placement for the thousands that have been brought in? New York City is a uniquely liberal sample, but even there, I suspect the issue has moved to the top of the list for more voters than ever believed it would have four years ago. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a boost in Trump support because of it.
No more busloads from Texas, to my knowledge. Yes on struggling with placement. I have a friend who was evicted from her apartment in February, and it was hard for her to even get a place in a shelter because there was no space. And you are mistaken about NYC being very liberal. Have you noticed who we elect as Mayor?
Sure, pretty much everything is possible. But arenтАЩt most of the other issues listed also playing out in OH? And I suspect for every voter who is scared by the idea of new black people in their state, there is at least an equal number who are offended by the overt racism and bomb threats and influx of neo-nazis. After the actions of Trump and Vance the тАЬsituation in SpringfieldтАЭ is a lot more than just a declining city trying to adjust to an influx of immigrants.
We'll have no better sample come November 6 than Clark County itself. Trump won it by 23 points in 2020. What are you expecting to happen there in seven weeks? If Trump improves his margin there above the PVI baseline for the state, are we allowed to draw any conclusions from that? Or will we just have to assume that Clark Country residents are disproportionately aggrieved at higher prices for eggs?
We actually have a pretty good sample size for this sort of thing already with dozens of food processing towns throughout Middle America that were 90+% white in the 80s and are now majority-minority because of immigration. In most cases, they're more Republican now than they were 35 years ago. The issue can and does move votes, and not in the direction you want it to.
You really think it's mainly immigration and not deindustrialization that's moved votes? I mean, you seem to, but because of your opposition to immigration.
IтАЩm sure I donтАЩt know enough specifically about Clark county to make an informed guess. Certainly if Trump over performs there then a reasonable conclusion could be that a backlash to immigration could have been the cause. But somehow weтАЩve gone from a blanket statement that a plurality of voters declared that immigration was their number one issue (which, citation needed) to it being an Ohio specific issue, to a single county in Ohio where people care about it.
I donтАЩt believe I ever said no one cares about immigration, as stated above it is a huge issue for Trump voters. But so what? TheyтАЩre gonna vote for him regardless. If thereтАЩs polling showing that independents / undecideds have immigration as their number one issue please share, that would be a good argument in your favor.
Regarding the food processing towns, my immediate response is correlation is not causation. As was mentioned upthread or yesterday, in the 80s and 90s we had Democratic Senators and Representatives from ND and SD, now both of those states vote more Republican than were 35 years ago. They certainly arenтАЩt majority-minority. Sure immigration may have been a factor in those towns, but the same thing happened in places without large scale immigration.
My point is simply this, there is absolutely zero evidence that I have seen that Immigration is going to play a major role in this election, if you have any please share it, but I donтАЩt think there has been any the last few times weтАЩve had this discussion (I believe it was with you).
He never provides any citations any time; he has opinions, which is his right, but never anything to actually back it up with but supposition and innuendo
Sorry, no. No matter how many times people try to insist it will be, immigration is just not going to be the major issue of this election.
I guess we'll find out in seven weeks if the plurality of voters who say it is were lying to pollsters.
Is that what a plurality says they are most concerned about now? Not the economy?
HereтАЩs a recent poll https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/ showing immigration as tied for #5 with Violent Crime. ItтАЩs #2 with Trump supporters (no surprise there) but among Harris supporters it received the lowest amount of people saying itтАЩs a major issue.
Let's give that poll the benefit of the doubt and assume it's right. Do you suppose it's possible that the issue might be more salient in Ohio than it is nationwide since the situation is playing out in their backyard? Because at least in this thread, the discussion is about Ohio.
It's played out in New York. Do you think it's our #1 issue? I don't.
I'd have to know more about the current situation on the ground in New York. I don't hear so much about busloads of immigrants coming in from Texas anymore. Is that still happening? And even if it's stopped, is the city still struggling with placement for the thousands that have been brought in? New York City is a uniquely liberal sample, but even there, I suspect the issue has moved to the top of the list for more voters than ever believed it would have four years ago. And I wouldn't be surprised to see a boost in Trump support because of it.
No more busloads from Texas, to my knowledge. Yes on struggling with placement. I have a friend who was evicted from her apartment in February, and it was hard for her to even get a place in a shelter because there was no space. And you are mistaken about NYC being very liberal. Have you noticed who we elect as Mayor?
In the context of the country at large, wouldn't you agree that New York City is more liberal than 95+% of other jurisdictions?
No, and certainly not if you compare it to other big cities.
You could be right about Ohio, though. The last few elections have not been good for Democrats there, generally.
Sure, pretty much everything is possible. But arenтАЩt most of the other issues listed also playing out in OH? And I suspect for every voter who is scared by the idea of new black people in their state, there is at least an equal number who are offended by the overt racism and bomb threats and influx of neo-nazis. After the actions of Trump and Vance the тАЬsituation in SpringfieldтАЭ is a lot more than just a declining city trying to adjust to an influx of immigrants.
We'll have no better sample come November 6 than Clark County itself. Trump won it by 23 points in 2020. What are you expecting to happen there in seven weeks? If Trump improves his margin there above the PVI baseline for the state, are we allowed to draw any conclusions from that? Or will we just have to assume that Clark Country residents are disproportionately aggrieved at higher prices for eggs?
We actually have a pretty good sample size for this sort of thing already with dozens of food processing towns throughout Middle America that were 90+% white in the 80s and are now majority-minority because of immigration. In most cases, they're more Republican now than they were 35 years ago. The issue can and does move votes, and not in the direction you want it to.
You really think it's mainly immigration and not deindustrialization that's moved votes? I mean, you seem to, but because of your opposition to immigration.
IтАЩm sure I donтАЩt know enough specifically about Clark county to make an informed guess. Certainly if Trump over performs there then a reasonable conclusion could be that a backlash to immigration could have been the cause. But somehow weтАЩve gone from a blanket statement that a plurality of voters declared that immigration was their number one issue (which, citation needed) to it being an Ohio specific issue, to a single county in Ohio where people care about it.
I donтАЩt believe I ever said no one cares about immigration, as stated above it is a huge issue for Trump voters. But so what? TheyтАЩre gonna vote for him regardless. If thereтАЩs polling showing that independents / undecideds have immigration as their number one issue please share, that would be a good argument in your favor.
Regarding the food processing towns, my immediate response is correlation is not causation. As was mentioned upthread or yesterday, in the 80s and 90s we had Democratic Senators and Representatives from ND and SD, now both of those states vote more Republican than were 35 years ago. They certainly arenтАЩt majority-minority. Sure immigration may have been a factor in those towns, but the same thing happened in places without large scale immigration.
My point is simply this, there is absolutely zero evidence that I have seen that Immigration is going to play a major role in this election, if you have any please share it, but I donтАЩt think there has been any the last few times weтАЩve had this discussion (I believe it was with you).
He never provides any citations any time; he has opinions, which is his right, but never anything to actually back it up with but supposition and innuendo
Agreed; economy will be #1