Morning Digest: Why second-term governors like to wait before saying whether they'll run a third time

Tim Walz, Tony Evers, and several of their colleagues are keeping everyone guessing

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (credit: Tim Walz campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

MN-Gov

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, who has yet to say whether he'll seek a third term, tells MPR's Brian Bakst that he'll probably make a decision "sometime in June, sometime this summer" in order to "give folks the opportunity"—presumably, the opportunity to prepare campaigns to succeed him should he opt to retire.

In states without term limits, governors entering the final half of their second or third terms often put off such announcements until the conclusion of upcoming legislative sessions to avoid being perceived as lame ducks.

Though skeptics were certain Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire would not run a third term, she kept everyone waiting until the end of the session in 2011 to prove them right. Her successor, Jay Inslee, somewhat more credibly held off making a decision about a fourth term in 2023, again waiting until lawmakers had concluded their work.

Walz nodded toward this in his comments to Bakst, saying, "I think we’ll take a look at this legislative session." Exactly what he plans to take a look at is not entirely clear, but Democrats will no longer control both chambers after Republicans tied the state House in November. Legislators must wrap up by May 19.

Similarly, in neighboring Wisconsin, where Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is weighing a similar situation, one recent report said he's likely to wait until the legislature finishes its work on the state budget by the end of June.

Walz and Evers are not the only governors in this particular boat. As Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota noted last month, seven incumbents currently serving their second or third four-year term could seek reelection, which would beat the previous record of four.

The other two-termers include two Republicans, Idaho's Brad Little and Iowa's Kim Reynolds, and two Democrats, Connecticut's Ned Lamont and Illinois' J.B. Pritzker. Meanwhile, Republican Greg Abbott has already said he'll run for a fourth term in Texas.

Then there's Vermont Republican Phil Scott, who could run for a sixth term next year—but that comes with a sizable asterisk. Vermont, along with neighboring New Hampshire, is one of just two states that still elects its governors to two-year terms. Ostermeier explains in a new analysis that shorter terms of one, two, or three years used to be the norm, with four-year terms largely catching on in the 20th century. The last state to join the quadrennial club was Rhode Island in 1994.

The Minnesota GOP tries to hijack a tied House

Senate

MA-Sen

Rep. Jake Auchincloss is not ruling out a challenge to Sen. Ed Markey in next year's Democratic primary, telling WCVB on Sunday, "I am considering running for reelection as a member of Congress." The congressman added, "I don't rule things out proactively. I want to be of service." The possibility of an Auchincloss bid was first reported a day earlier by WPRI's Ted Nesi.

Auchincloss, a Marine veteran and member of the City Council in Newton, got his chance to join the House when the previous occupant of Massachusetts' safely blue 4th District, Joe Kennedy III, likewise sought to unseat Markey in the primary in 2020. Kennedy lost by 55-45, but Auchincloss was more fortunate, defeating his nearest rival by a 22-21 margin in a race that was not called until several days after the election.

Markey, 78, has been in Congress since winning an election for the House in 1976. He's currently the second-longest serving member after Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley and is 12th on the all-time list. Auchincloss is just 36, but age would not be the only contrast. Markey has long been one of the most outspoken liberals on Capitol Hill while Auchincloss has openly embraced a more moderate profile.

NH-Sen

Republican Jack Franks, a real estate developer who does not appear to have run for office before, tells WMUR's Adam Sexton that he's considering a bid against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. Franks also did not address whether he'd defer to former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who narrowly lost to Shaheen in 2014 and is thinking about another run.

Governors

AZ-Gov

Far-right Rep. Andy Biggs, who previously brushed off questions about his interest in running for governor, said on Tuesday that he's considering a bid and filed paperwork with the state ahead of a possible campaign against Democrat Katie Hobbs next year.

Following the news, conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who hadn't ruled out running himself, endorsed Biggs, according to the Arizona Republic's Laura Gersony, even though he hasn't actually launched yet. Another potential GOP candidate, state Sen. Jake Hoffman, did the same, praising Biggs as "a good friend and fellow patriot."

But Biggs, a member of the Freedom Caucus and an ardent ally of Donald Trump, would likely face a primary showdown with businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson, who hasn't announced herself but already has Trump's support. A bit awkwardly, Trump issued that pre-endorsement at an event last month hosted by Turning Point USA—which is run by Kirk.

CO-Gov

State Rep. Scott Bottoms, described as "one of the most conservative and controversial members of the legislature" by the Colorado Sun's Jesse Paul, announced on Sunday that he'd run for Colorado's open governorship next year, making him the first Republican to do so. Paul adds that state Sen. Mark Baisley, who's been teasing a run since last year, is another possible GOP candidate.

Bottoms joins Attorney General Phil Weiser, who kicked off his own bid for the Democratic nod earlier this month. Other major Democrats are likely to join, while the GOP's cupboard is considerably barer.

TN-Gov

Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who began airing a new round of TV ads immediately after winning reelection last fall, has confirmed she's looking at a bid to replace term-limited Gov. Bill Lee next year. In an interview with radio station WCLE on Monday, though, she did not specify a timetable for making a decision.

Legislatures

PA State House

Democratic state Rep. Matt Gergely died on Sunday after suffering a medical emergency last month, sending Pennsylvania's closely divided House back into a 101-101 tie.

That deadlock will be resolved in a special election on March 25, which was called on Tuesday by Speaker Joanna McClinton. Nominees will be chosen by local party leaders rather than primary voters.

Ever since Democrats unexpectedly won back the House in 2022, it's been up for grabs repeatedly thanks to multiple special elections. One of those was won by Gergely himself, who locked down the seat vacated by fellow Democrat Austin Davis after he was elected lieutenant governor by racking up a 74-25 landslide in February of 2023. He was unopposed for reelection last year.

But Gergely's district, numbered the 35th and located in the Pittsburgh suburbs, isn't quite so blue as his gaudy showing—in fact, the largest special election overperformance by any Democrat during Joe Biden's tenure—might indicate. (Prior to Davis, the seat was represented by Gergely's brother, Marc, who later pleaded guilty to corruption charges.)

According to brand-new calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris defeated Donald Trump 58-42, very similar to Biden's 57-41 win four years earlier. Notably, the Democratic margin remained unchanged despite Pennsylvania's 3-point slip to the right in November, though turnout was down slightly for both sides.

Unlike in early 2023, when the departure of Davis and another Democrat, Summer Lee (who'd just been elected to the U.S. House), led to weeks of uncertainty about who would control the chamber, there won't be any ambiguity this time. Earlier this month, when Gergely was absent, Republicans conceded the speaker's race to McClinton in exchange for certain concessions, like being able to bring bills to a vote on the floor with the support of just 25 members.

Judges

WI Supreme Court

Judge Susan Crawford just launched her first TV ad buy ahead of the pivotal April 1 election that will determine whether liberals retain control of the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Crawford, who has the support of state Democrats, says she's spending seven figures on broadcast and cable to air two new ads. In the first, a narrator touts her as "she's the prosecutor who locked up violent criminals, the judge who’s kept them off the streets, and the leader who fought for abortion rights."

The second, meanwhile, goes after her opponent, Republican Brad Schimel, a former state attorney general who recently went up on TV himself. The spot charges that he "let 6,000 rape kits sit untested for two years, while survivors waited for justice." (After his first two years in office, the state had tested just nine kits.)

The narrator then says that Schimel "let domestic abusers walk with no jail time" and concludes by saying that he "gave a plea deal to a man caught with thousands of files of child pornography" after the man's attorney donated "thousands" to his campaign for attorney general in 2014.

As News 3's Jessica Arp explained in 2018 when these attacks first surfaced during Schimel's reelection bid, attorney Matthew Huppertz began making $500 monthly donations to Schimel's first campaign for attorney general while negotiating a plea deal, ultimately totaling $6,000.

Two weeks after Schimel was sworn in, the defendant, Andrew Lambrecht, accepted a deal and received a three-year prison sentence, the mandatory legal minimum. Schimel lost his bid for a second term by less than 1 point to Democrat Josh Kaul.

Mayors & County Leaders

Boston, MA Mayor

Josh Kraft has decided to challenge Mayor Michelle Wu, Politico's Kelly Garrity reports, and is hoping to announce early next month. Kraft, who is the son of New England Patriots owner Robert Kraft, has not publicly confirmed he'll take on his fellow Democrat in this year's contest.