Morning Digest: Why you can't run for a new office and then president two years later

For Glenn Youngkin, Roy Cooper, and Brian Kemp, it's either Senate or White House—not both

Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (credit: Glenn Youngkin campaign Facebook)

Leading Off

VA-Sen

There's plenty of speculation that Gov. Glenn Youngkin could try to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Warner next year, but one long-time Virginia political observer thinks the Republican has his eyes firmly on a more powerful job.

Writing in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, Jeff Schapiro says that Youngkin "has given no indication that he is interested in anything less than the presidency in 2028."

It's a situation that Warner himself might relate to. Intense chatter through much of 2005 centered on the possibility that the Democrat, who was serving his last full year as leader of the Old Dominion, could challenge Republican Sen. George Allen—himself a former governor—the following year.

Virginia is the only state where governors cannot seek a second consecutive term, so there's often a surplus of former or lame-duck governors looking for something new to do.

Warner, however, was also eyeing a White House bid in 2008, and waging back-to-back campaigns would not have been a good idea for reasons just as valid two decades ago as they are today. A victory in 2006 would have forced Warner to deprioritize his new job almost immediately to hit the campaign trail for the presidency, while a defeat would likely have taken him out of the running.

There are other reasons why it's all but impossible to find examples of candidates claiming a new office in a midterm cycle only to quickly gear up to run for president. Presidential hopefuls need to start laying the groundwork long before they officially enter the race, and simultaneously preparing a national campaign while competing in a tough race at home can sap the energies of anyone.

And few voters like it when politicians seek an office they seem to view as a stepping stone to the job they actually want. Richard Nixon found this out the hard way in 1962 when, two years after narrowly losing the presidency to John F. Kennedy, the former vice president sought to unseat California Gov. Pat Brown.

Brown was vulnerable, but he successfully argued that Nixon only wanted to use the governorship as a springboard to the White House in 1964. Californians didn't believe Nixon's protestations that he actually wanted to lead the state.

Nixon, despite the immortal words of his "last press conference," recovered from his 52-47 loss against Brown and successfully sought the presidency in 1968, but that gubernatorial campaign remains a cautionary tale for Youngkin and other modern would-be presidential contenders.

Indeed, at least two top-tier potential Senate recruits, Georgia Republican Brian Kemp and North Carolina Democrat Roy Cooper, seem to understand they can't run in both 2026 and 2028. Kamala Harris also wants to avoid a repeat of Nixon's experience as she considers whether she wants to be governor of California or seek the presidency again.

Warner himself ultimately passed on the 2006 Senate race, which led to more talk that he and Allen would end up facing off for the nation's top job—an early 2006 issue of Newsweek even teased such a matchup in a feature story highlighted on its cover. But this Virginian vs. Virginian faceoff never happened: Warner ultimately announced that he wouldn't run for president, while Democrat Jim Webb's upset victory over Allen ended the Republican's own White House dreams in dramatic fashion.

Warner did run for Virginia's other Senate seat in 2008 following the retirement of Republican John Warner—no relation (though Mark had lost a campaign against John in 1996)—and he easily beat former GOP Gov. Jim Gilmore. The Democrat later survived a surprisingly close 2014 reelection battle against Republican Ed Gillespie, but he had no trouble six years later against an unheralded foe.

Warner, who just turned 70, has yet to confirm that he'll seek a fourth term next year, though he hasn't hinted that he's thinking of retiring. Indeed, Schapiro writes that the senator and his major supporters recently held a meeting that "was largely about the U.S. senator's 2026 re-election campaign."

Special elections are back, baby!

Senate

MI-Sen

The extremely long list of potential Senate candidates in Michigan is starting to sort itself out as various would-be contenders speak up about their interest—most notably former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, whom the AP reported on Thursday is planning to launch a second bid after losing last year’s Senate race in a squeaker.

Earlier in the day, prior to the publication of the AP's story, Rogers said in a social media post that he's "strongly considering" another bid, adding that he had won "more votes than any other Republican candidate that has ever run for Senate in Michigan." The problem for Rogers is that he still won fewer votes than Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who beat him by 19,006 votes, to be precise.

One factor that may have contributed to Rogers' loss—and in a race that close, any culprit might be to blame—was his inability to explain just exactly where he lived. A headline from the Michigan Advance asked, "Where is Mr. Rogers' neighborhood?", a question we never got a satisfactory answer to.

Even a month before Election Day, reporters were unable to learn where Rogers—who had returned to Michigan just the year before after moving to Florida following his 2014 retirement from the House—laid his head at night.

Rogers claimed he and his wife lived with his brother and his wife in a "one-and-a-half bathroom" townhouse in Genoa outside of Detroit, though neighbors told the Detroit Free Press' M.L. Elrick they'd never seen the ex-congressman.

Meanwhile, Rogers was registered to vote at a different address in the township of White Lake, 40 minutes to the west. Yet even as of October, Rogers wasn't actually living there because the home lacked a certificate of occupancy—despite the fact that his campaign had said two months earlier that he did live there. (On top of that, Rogers' voter registration in Florida had remained active until May.)

It's not clear whether Rogers ever moved into the White Lake residence, but he at least has plenty of time to finally fix the problem that may have cost him a seat in the Senate.

Rogers, of course, is merely one of a zillion Michigan Republicans who could run to replace retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Another one whose name also previously came up, wealthy businessman Kevin Rinke, likewise signaled his interest on social media this week.

"One thing is for sure: Michigan is open for the taking," Rinke posted. "Stay tuned." A bit cryptic, but there's no mistaking intentions.

Whether Rinke, who expressed interest in running for governor last year, can actually win, however, is less clear. He lost the 2022 GOP gubernatorial primary to conservative commentator Tudor Dixon 40-21, in key part because he was decidedly less Trumpy. (A Free Press editorial endorsed him as "the least dangerous choice for Republican voters with no good options.") Rinke also considered a Senate bid last cycle but didn't go for it.

But two people Rogers and Rinke won't have to worry about are former NFL coach Tony Dungy and former state Attorney General Mike Cox—the man who narrowly beat Peters in 2002.

Dungy, a Wolverine State native who lives in Florida, took to social media Thursday evening and wrote that the next senator from Michigan "won’t be me." And while Cox’s name also came up following Peters' announcement, he just put $1 million of his own money into the exploratory committee he set up last month ahead of a possible bid for governor.

Governors

CT-Gov

New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart now says she'll decide whether to run for governor "sometime in the fall" after previously indicating she'd make up her mind by the end of the month. That earlier timetable apparently referred only to the creation of an exploratory committee, which she talked about at a press conference earlier this week.

At that same event, Stewart also compared herself directly to Donald Trump.

"We knew what we were getting when he won," Stewart said. "We knew that everything that's happened in the last week, all the executive orders, we knew that was going to happen, because he's the type of leader who says he's going to do something and does it. He doesn't waffle. And I'm that same type of leader."

Trump lost Connecticut last year by a 56-42 margin.

IL-Gov

Democrat J.B. Pritzker, who's one of several two-term governors who could seek a third term next year, says he'll "have to make a decision over the next few months," reports Politico's Shia Kapos.

Pritzker added that "lifting up the people of Illinois and putting us in a better position excites me" but also said that "families of politicians go through a lot" and indicated his family's preferences would be "part of the decision-making process." Many governors in Pritzker's position wait until the conclusion of the current legislative session to make an announcement about their plans; in Illinois, the session is set to end on May 31.

MI-Gov

A new poll of a hypothetical Republican primary for governor finds Rep. John James with a huge lead over several potential rivals.

The survey, conducted by OnMessage for Harbor Strategic Public Affairs, puts James in front with 46% of the vote while the nearest competitor, state Sen. Aric Nesbitt, takes just 6%. Former state Attorney General Mike Cox, meanwhile, is at 4%, and wealthy businessman Kevin Rinke brings up the rear with 3%. Thirty-five percent are undecided.

The poll's sponsor says it is "not affiliated with any candidate that is considering or has announced for office."

Mayors & County Leaders

Detroit, MI Mayor

City Councilman Fred Durhal announced Wednesday that he was joining what's already a crowded race for mayor of Detroit. Durhal, a Democrat who served in the state House during the previous decade, launched his effort by touting his background in government.

Other Races

SD-LG

Republican state Rep. Tony Venhuizen was sworn in as South Dakota's new lieutenant governor on Thursday, following his unanimous confirmation by both chambers of the legislature. Venhuizen was tapped by Gov. Larry Rhoden, who was just elevated to the state's top job after Kristi Noem was confirmed as Donald Trump's Homeland Security secretary.

Rhoden will also pick a replacement for Venhuizen, who is the son-in-law of former Gov. Dennis Daugaard and was also his former chief of staff. Venhuizen later held that same post under Noem.