Morning Digest: Wisconsin GOP tries to cling to power by banning something no one's doing

And Republicans in seven other states have a similar idea

Wisconsin Democrat Ryan Spaude (center), with supporters (credit: Ryan Spaude for Assembly Facebook)

Leading Off

WI Legislature, WI Ballot

Wisconsin is one of eight states where voters will decide whether to pass an amendment to bar non-citizens from voting in local elections, a measure that Republicans hope will help them retain control of the state Assembly—even though it would have no impact on how elections are currently conducted anywhere in the state.

"I’m not aware of any municipalities or counties in Wisconsin that are practicing that, allowing noncitizens to vote," acknowledged Sauk County GOP chair Jerry Helmer, who is campaigning for a Democratic-leaning seat in the legislature, in an interview with NOTUS' Em Luetkemeyer. But Helmer nonetheless insisted that "this is a measure that we need to take before it does begin to happen."

Republican lawmakers are putting the "Wisconsin Citizenship Voting Requirement Amendment" before voters at a time when Donald Trump and his allies have been spreading conspiracy theories about votes being cast by residents who aren't American citizens. (The plan, which is the only measure on the statewide ballot, is not identified by a number or letter.) 

While Washington, D.C., and a handful of jurisdictions in California, Maryland, and Vermont allow non-citizen residents to participate in municipal elections, federal law still prohibits them from casting ballots in federal contests. Opponents of proposals like Wisconsin's say they're unnecessary and argue they could result in racist harassment against Latino voters.

But Badger State Republicans hope the amendment will give their candidates a popular talking point just before an election that could see them lose their majority in the Assembly for the first time since the 2010 red wave.

The state approved new legislative maps to replace Republican gerrymanders that the state Supreme Court struck down late last year—new boundaries that finally reflect Wisconsin's swingy nature.

Donald Trump, according to data from VEST from Dave's Redistricting App, carried 50 of the 99 new Assembly districts in 2020 under the new map. While that's still a bare majority in a state that Trump narrowly lost four years ago, it's a world of difference from the 64 to 35 split in his favor under the old maps. The GOP, not coincidentally, goes into next week with an identical 64-35 majority in the lower chamber.

Democrats are determined to make the most of this opportunity, fielding candidates in 97 of the Assembly's 99 districts—their most in more than a decade. Republicans, by contrast, are contesting 84 races. Wisconsin Public Radio recently previewed the key races to watch across the state, though perhaps to his frustration, Helmer's battle against Democrat Karen DeSanto did not make the list.

The state Senate, by contrast, is likely to remain in GOP hands because only half the chamber is up each cycle. However, Democrats are still hoping to make gains next week to position it for more success in 2026.

Republicans, though, think that they can overcome these new maps in part by highlighting their support for the noncitizen voting amendment. As Luetkemeyer notes, Republicans have been knocking on doors to promote it, something one county chair argues fits well into the GOP's nativist "America first" mantra. 

Republicans further up the ballot also sense an opportunity. Eric Hovde, writes Luetkemeyer, has "been voicing his opposition to noncitizen voting throughout his campaign" against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin.

Not every GOP Assembly candidate, though, is placing the amendment front and center. When WPR asked Patrick Buckley, a Republican seeking an open swing seat around Green Bay, to name the top three things he heard from voters, he exclaimed, "Economy, economy, economy." Still, Buckley's website implores his would-be constituents to vote "yes" on the amendment to "protect our democracy."

His Democratic rival, Ryan Spaude, also did not list non-citizen voting as a top concern in speaking with WPR. Spaude instead said that voters have emphasized their cost of living, followed by disappointment with "gridlock." And in competitive races across the state, Democrats have highlighted abortion rights.

GOP-dominated legislatures in seven other states have also placed amendments on the ballot to bar non-citizens from voting. The only other swing state in this bunch is North Carolina, where, in the inverse of the situation in Wisconsin, Republicans are counting on their newly gerrymandered maps to protect their supermajorities in the legislature.

But just like in Wisconsin, Tar Heel State Democrats see North Carolina's version of the amendment as a ploy to boost the GOP.

"Our Constitution already calls for citizens-only voting," state Rep. Sarah Crawford told Carolina Public Press. "We don’t need a specific amendment, and I believe that this was just a political tool to try to drum up more conservative voters and create fear and confusion about what is happening or is not happening in our elections."

The other six states that will consider banning non-citizens from voting are Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, and ​​South Carolina. One municipality could go in the other direction, however: Santa Ana—a city of about 300,000 in Orange County, California, that voted for Joe Biden by a 68-30 margin four years ago—will consider whether to allow "noncitizen City residents" to take part in local elections.

House

CA-16

Assemblyman Evan Low earned an endorsement from Gov. Gavin Newsom on Monday, just ahead of the all-Democratic general election for California's 16th District. Low faces former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo in the contest to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo in this safely blue seat in Silicon Valley.

OH-01

The House Majority PAC has canceled the rest of its ad reservations for Ohio's Cincinnati-based 1st District, AdImpact reports, reflecting confidence that Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman will defeat Republican Orlando Sonza next week. A week ago, the super PAC cut $1 million in TV time; the latest move scraps its remaining $900,000 booking.

You can stay on top of all of these late cancellations by bookmarking our House race triage tracker.

PA-08

Noble Predictive Insights' new survey for Inside Elections shows Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright turning back Republican Rob Bresnahan 50-43 in the first—and maybe only—poll that anyone's released of the expensive battle for Pennsylvania's 8th District.

NPI also shows Cartwright running well ahead of his party's statewide ticket in a former Democratic stronghold that has swung hard to the right over the last decade. Donald Trump outpaces Kamala Harris 49-46 in this northeastern Pennsylvania constituency, which matches his 51-48 victory over the Scranton-born Joe Biden in 2020. The firm also finds local voters deadlocked 44-44 in the Senate race between another Scranton native, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, and Republican Dave McCormick.

Cartwright secured his sixth term by a narrow 51-49 margin in 2022, and both national parties have been treating his race against Bresnahan as a top priority. The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC and DCCC had deployed almost $11 million in independent expenditures through Monday, while the Congressional Leadership Fund and NRCC have thrown down over $7 million to help Bresnahan.

Ballot Measures

CO Ballot

Sen. Michael Bennet recently announced that he opposes a ballot measure to institute a top-four primary system in Colorado, which makes him the most prominent state Democrat to urge a "no" vote on Proposition 131. Gov. Jared Polis and the state's other U.S. senator, John Hickenlooper, are backing the "yes" side.

Mayors & County Leaders

San Diego County, CA Board of Supervisors

Democrat Terra Lawson-Remer, a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, faces former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer in an expensive race that will decide whether Democrats will keep their four-year-old majority on the board.

The seat the two are competing for, the 3rd District, favored Joe Biden by a 63-34 margin in 2020, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App. Republicans, though, are hoping that Faulconer's profile will give him an opening in what is an officially nonpartisan contest. Some of the ex-mayor's allies have openly courted crossover voters with messaging declaring, "After voting for Kamala, don't forget, vote for Kevin." 

Faulconer became one of the California Republican Party's rare rising stars when he won the 2014 special election to succeed scandal-ridden Mayor Bob Filner, and it looked like it would only be a matter of time before he ran statewide. Shortly before he was termed out, he seemed ready to make good on his promise when he began talking about challenging Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2022, but conservatives soon complicated those plans in more ways than one.

After Newson's detractors collected enough signatures to force a recall vote against the governor in 2021, Faulconer decided to run as a replacement candidate. The self-described "vanilla" politician, though, was overshadowed by far-right radio host Larry Elder, whom Newsom's team was more than happy to elevate. The recall failed 62-38 and, to add insult to injury, the former mayor took a distant third place with just 8% on what proved to be a meaningless second question asking who should replace Newsom.

Faulconer is trying to revive his once-prominent career by harnessing anger with the status quo back home.

"I am not going to let San Diego County turn into Los Angeles or San Francisco," he told Politico's Christopher Cadelago this month. "Why are people leaving San Francisco? Because of the homelessness and all the crimes going on."

Lawson-Remer and her allies have responded by arguing that Faulconer did a poor job addressing homelessness when he had the chance.

"All he did as mayor was push homeless people into poor neighborhoods so his rich buddies wouldn’t see them," labor leader Brigette Browning told Cadelago. "He pretends like he’s this middle-of-the-road frat boy neighbor. If you’re a member of the yacht club, he’ll be your buddy. But how many people are members of the yacht club?"

Lawson-Remer, whose 2020 victory gave Democrats their first majority on the five-member Board of Supervisors in more than 30 years, is also reminding voters that a Faulconer victory would be a boon to local and state Republicans.

"Republicans statewide desperately would love to be relevant again," she argued to Cadelago. "And they think, ‘Oh my God, maybe this guy can do it' … He’s like the last Republican."

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Ruben Gallego (D): 51, Kari Lake (R): 43 (48-47 Harris) (Aug.: 47-44 Gallego)

• AZ-Sen: Data Orbital (R): Lake (R): 45, Gallego (D): 45 (50-42 Trump) (April: 48-44 Gallego)

• FL-Sen: Mainstreet Research for Florida Atlantic University: Rick Scott (R-inc): 50, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 46 (53-44 Trump) (Aug.: 47-43 Scott)

• MI-Sen: Emerson College for RealClearWorld: Elissa Slotkin (D): 48, Mike Rogers (R): 46 (49-48 Trump) (early Oct.: 49-44 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV: Slotkin (D): 46, Rogers (R): 43 (47-44 Harris) (early Oct.: 47-43 Slotkin)

• MI-Sen: Susquehanna Polling & Research (R): Slotkin (D): 48, Rogers (R): 47 (52-47 Harris)

• MO-Sen: GQR (D) for Lucas Kunce: Josh Hawley (R-inc): 49, Lucas Kunce (D): 46 (mid-Sept.: 52-48 Hawley)

• NV-Sen: SSRS: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 50, Sam Brown (R): 41 (48-47 Trump) (Aug.: 50-40 Rosen

• TX-Sen: University of Texas at Tyler: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 47, Colin Allred (D): 45 (51-46 Trump) (June: 45-42 Cruz)

• CA-22: Emerson for Inside California Politics and The Hill: Rudy Salas (D): 47, David Valadao (R-inc): 45 (56-42 Harris) (late Sept.: 45-45 tie)

• CT-05: Emerson for WTNH, WCTX, and The Hill: Jahana Hayes (D-inc): 49, George Logan (R): 45 (48-48 presidential tie) (mid-Oct.: 49-46 Hayes)

• NY-17: Emerson for PIX11 and The Hill: Mike Lawler (R-inc): 49, Mondaire Jones (D): 44, Anthony Frascone (WFP): 1 (50-47 Harris) (early Oct.: 45-44 Lawler)

• NY-18: Emerson for PIX11 and The Hill: Pat Ryan (D-inc): 51, Alison Esposito (R): 42 (49-48 Trump) (early Oct.: 48-43 Ryan)

• AZ Ballot: SSRS: Abortion amendment: Yes: 60, No: 39 (Aug.: 62-35 Yes)

• FL Ballot: Mainstreet Research: Marijuana amendment: Yes: 60, No: 34 (note: needs 60% to pass) (Aug.: 56-29 Yes)

• FL Ballot: Mainstreet Research: Abortion amendment: Yes: 58, No: 32 (note: needs 60% to pass) (Aug.: 56-21 Yes)

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: David Binder Research (D) for Daniel Lurie: Daniel Lurie: 26, London Breed (inc): 23, Aaron Peskin: 18, Mark Farrell: 17, Ahsha Safai: 4. In final round of simulated instant runoff: Lurie: 55, Breed (inc): 45. (All candidates are Democrats.) 

Emerson's last Michigan poll was conducted for a different client, Nexstar. 

Ad Roundup

This brings a close to our daily ad roundup for 2024, which we've been pleased to share with you this cycle. While a few late ads will trickle through, most final ads are now airing, since ad buys are usually made a week at a time. The Morning Digest, however, will continue right through Election Day and beyond!

• MD-Sen: Angela Alsobrooks (D)

• ME-Sen: Angus King (I-inc)

• MI-Sen: Elissa Slotkin (D); Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Slotkin

• MT-Sen: American Crossroads - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc); SLF - anti-Tester

• NE-Sen: Dan Osborn (I) - anti-Deb Fischer (R-inc); Retire Career Politicians PAC - anti-Fischer

• NV-Sen: SLF - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• PA-Sen: PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R) (here, here, and here); American Crossroads - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc); SLF - anti-Casey

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) and the DSCC - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc)

• WI-Sen: Tammy Baldwin (D-inc) - anti-Eric Hovde (R); Hovde - anti-Baldwin; SLF - anti-Baldwin

• IN-Gov: Jennifer McCormick (D) - anti-Mike Braun (R)

• MO-Gov: Mike Kehoe (R) - anti-Crystal Quade (D)

• NH-Gov: New Hampshire Democratic Party - pro-Joyce Craig (D) and anti-Kelly Ayotte (R); Ayotte (R) - anti-Craig

• CA-13: House Majority PAC - anti-John Duarte (R-inc)

• CA-16: Evan Low (D)

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D); Salas - anti-David Valadao (R-inc) (in Spanish)

• CA-34: United Democracy Project (AIPAC affiliate) - pro-Jimmy Gomez (D-inc)

• CO-08: HMP - pro-Yadira Caraveo (D-inc)

• MI-07: HMP - anti-Tom Barrett (R)

• MN-02: Angie Craig (D-inc)

• NE-02: Tony Vargas (D)

• NJ-07: HMP - pro-Sue Altman (D)

• NM-02: HMP - anti-Yvette Herrell (R) (in Spanish)

• NY-19: Marc Molinaro (R-inc)

• OH-09: Derek Merrin (R) and the NRCC - anti-Marcy Kaptur (D-inc)

• OR-05: HMP - anti-Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-inc)

• PA-10: Scott Perry (R-inc) - anti-Janelle Stelson (D)

• FL Ballot: Smart & Safe Florida - pro-marijuana amendment

• FL Ballot: Vote No On Amendment 4 - anti-abortion amendment

• NE Ballot: Protect Our Rights - pro-abortion rights amendment and anti-abortion restrictions amendment