252 Comments

Considering that Emerson missed by 4-7 points for the GOP in 2022, those are some good polls.

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TX # looks encouraging

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What is encouraging about them? Just the general high enthusiasm? Or are you seeing county-level numbers anywhere? Indications of favorable partisan split?

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The presidential top line seems to be aligned with current already voted population, not necessarily the final electorate. So behind 7 pt is plausible.

Cruz only up 1 in this T+7 sample. The undecided are R leaning. But judging from huge turnout from the suburbs with a lot of newcomers, they may not that much like him. He probably has higher negative in the DFW outer suburbs than DT.

I wouldn’t assume the undecided R leaning section automatically breaking for Cruz.

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The TX senate one is an eye opener. Maybe it is a real possibility Allred can win. I've been kind of dismissing polls showing him within striking distance, as this is a common pattern - D senate candidate in red(dish) state polling like 3-4 points behind GOP incumbent, but only in the low 40s, ends up losing by 10-15. BUT given Cruz's struggle against Beto in 2018, and given Allred at 47%, and given the Pres toplines are not that favorable, and given Emerson's lean - maybe this can happen.

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Ted Cruz is the most unlikable Republican in America; everyone hates him(the John Boehner quote about Cruz is classic)

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Al Franken had a great one during their few years in the Senate together. “I like Ted Cruz more than most of my other colleagues like Ted Cruz. And I hate Ted Cruz.”

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It’s not out of the realm of possibilities for Cruz to lose. After all, Beto only lost to him in 2018 by less than 3% points.

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GEORGIA EARLY VOTE:

As of this morning, 1,929,628 people have voted in Georgia.

Mail Ballots ("Absentee")

– 115,405 accepted (of 116,161 returned)

– 308,952 requested

In-Person Votes

– 1,814,223 (225,388 added yesterday)

TOTAL EARLY VOTE:

– 1,929,628

– 26.8% of all active registered voters.

– 38.6% of Georgia’s total 2020 turnout!

https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout

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Just 75k lower than this time in 2020, closing every day. Looks like 2024 early voting will pass 2020 early voting day-for-day this weekend. Likely to exceed 4 million early votes by next Friday.

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Getting slightly redder from yesterday’s voting.

My hunch the banked votes are a slight tinge of pink. Adding in the mail requests that would likely coming in as votes (some were already in, just not processed and logged into the poll book yet, like Pres Carter’s vote), the total EV would be a tiny tinge of blue. Quite different from the 2020 Blue early vote.

Guess the final election date vote won’t be super red either.

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TargetEarly has R's winning GA's EV by 4.6% in 2020. Modeled party.

At ED-14, D's were up 0.2%. Currently, R+2.4%.

Those are at 1.639 mil cast, so a smidge behind the most current numbers.

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TS modeled party has been way off in Georgia for the last two cycles. Ignore it, or take it with a giant grain of salt.

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Also each R held congressional districts has about 6-7% of the votes come from 2020 EDay voters. D district has 3-4%. So a slightly heavier cannibalization of EDay R voters, worth about 2% of the current volume.

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UPDATE 2:30pm: An additional 127,444 Georgians have voted in-person today.

UPDATE 5:30pm: So far today, 189,408 more Georgians have voted in-person.

UPDATE 8:30pm: Today, 201,561 Georgians have voted in-person.

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NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTE

A total of 1,705,686 people cast Early In-Person Votes. North Carolina is one of the states that has surpassed one million votes. So far, 101,613 Mail Ballots have been returned of 408,573 requested. Registered Democrats and registered Republicans are running neck-and-neck, with Dems having a tiny edge of approx 10.500. The joker is how Independents, which account for 31.6% of the Early Vote, will break.

In-Person Early Votes: 1,595,073

Party split: 34.5% Democrats, 33.9% Republicans, 31.6% Independents

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/

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Very heavy yesterday from rural west. Might be starting to cannibalizing EDay votes now.

Looking at the racial/partisan/geographic distribution, the already banked votes is a tinge pink, like I said about GA. Counting the still outstanding VBM, the total EV looks slightly Blue.

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Hasn’t early vote always cannibalized the E-Day vote? I appreciate the ongoing analysis but I think we’re only talking about the margins. Analyzing early day voting is just analyzing over-all voters but in a different mode. Add it all up and we got mostly the same numbers in the end.

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No. As right now only a very small % of early voter in Georgia are pulled from EDay voters.

Ex. About 20% of 2020 votes were cast on EDay. If a random set voted now, considering some portion would died/moved out/decided not to vote, and some new voters will replace them, a random level canibalization should have about 15% EDay voters in current EV.

In reality, White voters have about 6-7% canibalized from EDay, non white some 3-4%.

Going into the last week, these could be higher.

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GOP data is serving an essential end of pro-Trump propaganda, which is heavily geared toward painting him as a formidable, “strong” figure whose triumph over the “weak” Kamala Harris is inevitable. This illusion is essential to Trump’s electoral strategy, goes this reading, and GOP-aligned data firms are concertedly attempting to build up that impression, both in the polling averages and in media coverage that is gravitationally influenced by it. They are also engaged in a data-driven psyop designed to spread a sense of doom among Democrats that the election is slipping away from them.

https://newrepublic.com/article/187425/gop-polls-rigging-averages-trump

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This fits perfectly with my perception. One additional effect is that it messes up Democrats' minds and potentially depresses volunteer activity and leads to misallocation of resources. Arguably, that may have led the Dems to under-invest in winnable House seats and maybe WI-Sen and overinvest in House races that were in the bag.

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I think the campaigns themselves, at least, know better than to trust manipulated data.

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I cannot find the link now, but I saw a couple of articles that mentioned democratic campaign heads starting to doubt their own internal polling. I'm sure they're wise this time, but there was some indication that some may have been duped then.

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Oct 23·edited Oct 23

Here is one article.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

The errant surveys spooked some candidates into spending more money than necessary, and diverted help from others who otherwise had a fighting chance of winning.

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Paywalled. Any chance you could post a gift link? (We long since cancelled our NYT subscription in disgust and protest at their editorial policies.)

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Note that the poll aggregators, such as 538, were overwhelmed by these polls in 2022 (clearest case - PA Sen, where they were off by 5 points. This cycle, only the Washington Post's aggregator is excluding these red wave polls, and low and behold they show a steady race, with Harris up 2 in PA, MI, and WI, Trump up 2 in AZ and GA, and basically a tie in NV and NC.

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There is another aggregator – the name escapes me – based only on polls that 538 give a high rating. If someone recalls and has the link, please share it here.

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FLORIDA EARLY VOTE

Statewide, Republicans increased their lead yesterday, but Democrats are still outperforming them in 44 of Florida’s 67 counties.

@FloridaGOP +111,322 over @FloridaDems

– Democrat: 845,413 (37.6% – down from 39.3%)

– Republican: 954,657 (42.4% – up from 40.5%)

– Other: 451,088 (20% – down from 20.2%)

TOTAL: 2,251,158

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/

Brandon Meyer’s numbers are from slightly earlier and hence lower.

https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1848853115686293589#m

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EARLY VOTE – NATIONALLY

(UPDATED 9pm) At least 26,501,060 people have now voted. In-Person Early Votes: 10,749,808 • Mail Ballots Returned: 15,716,782. Early Votes have been cast in 43 states plus DC. Nine states have passed one million votes:

CA 2,856,166•

FL 2,813,807•*

GA 2,154,818•

NC 1,705,686•*

TX 1,679,305•

MI 1,309,097•

VA 1,205,062•

OH 1,135,610•

PA 1,120,904•

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

*) States that report party registration: CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, FL, IA, ID, KY, ME, MD, NE, NV, NJ, NM, NC, OR, PA, RI, SD, WV.

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(UPDATED 9pm) Another 25 states have at least 100,000 votes:

TN 988,940•

AZ 916,688•

IL 869,886•

MA 818,904•

CO 759,403•*

WA 618,980•

NJ 525,879•*

IN 476,673•

WI 475,460•

LA 438,273•

MD 397,430•*

MN 337,633

NV 332,668•

NM 246,469•

IA 211,569•

AR 173,577•

CT 173,180•

NE 170,842•*

UT 166,735•

ID 164,453•*

ME 163,699•

MT 156,332•

OR 143,496•

SD 138,072*

KS 116,570•

VT 113,240•

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(Updated 9pm) States with less than 100,000 votes:

HI 74,484•

RI 64,566•

DC 60,369•

KY 59,187•

SC 52,361•

ND 44,945•

WY 29,891•

DE 24,787•*

WV 10,553•

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Where are you getting these numbers? SC hit 126k on Day 1. https://scvotes.gov/south-carolinians-break-record-on-opening-day-of-early-voting-period/

It was a new record but there is so little history of early voting here can’t really say if there is any impact but it is another data point implying there is no lack of enthusiasm.

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My numbers are from Michael McDonald’s Election Project. The link and time-stamp is in my first post. McDonald updates his numbers when he receives official state file updates from the various Secretaries of State. This means there is likely to be a lag in a few of his numbers – such as in this case South Carolina.

That’s great news from SC! I notice they don’t post a precise number.

*) NB. I often simply update my post and change the time stamp.

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Ahh, that makes sense. Weird though as the numbers were available yesterday. But good to know those numbers may be under counting.

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Note that they didn’t post a precise number in that press release. This may well mean that SC was still tabulating, and that they had not yet completed their report.

If you look at my post today about the Florida Early Vote, there are two links. Brandon Meyer posted "updated" numbers last night, after polls closed – but these are lower than McDonald’s numbers which are taken from the Florida SoS’s report.

Anyways, McDonald’s lag is why I often use other sources for the numbers in my posts about the EV in individual states.

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Very good point. Found the actual report at https://scvotes.gov/elections-statistics/voter-participation/ which shows that after 2 days we’re at 254,533 votes.

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Texas goes quite fast, almost at 5% of the registration per day. It also looks like the rurals go faster.

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"The Los Angeles Times editorial board was preparing to endorse Kamala Harris for president, but then the owner of the paper ordered them not to make any endorsement in the most consequential election on the ballot."

https://nitter.poast.org/keithboykin/status/1848835876714950681#m

https://ktla.com/news/local-news/los-angeles-times-wont-make-endorsement-for-president-report-says/

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The owner of the LA Times is a South African who is friends with...Elon Musk.

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Well dat be dat. Birds flock together. Or rather, turds go down a toilet together.

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Did you notice that I posted about this yesterday? The latest is that the editor has resigned in protest.

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No, I missed that. I saw the story today, retweeted by Michael MacDonald. Big wow if the editor resigned!

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VA-02: Incumbent R now up only 46-45 in Wason poll after being up 5 last month: https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2024-10-23.html

Harris leads 48-46 and Kaine by 7 here.

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I believe that’s a +2 improvement for Kamala as well from a tied race.

CNU/Wason is pretty good in VA so I’d take these numbers. District-specific polls continue to show, at worst, a 2020 style environment.

Interestingly enough, too, Younking and Lara Trump are headed to VA-1 of all places to rally…

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VA-02 was Biden+2 in 2020, so these results seem reasonable. I'm glad to see that Missy Cotter Smasal is not that far behind Harris and Biden's numbers.

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VA-2 should’ve been a top target for Dems but two things.

1. There are so many other better targets to get us to a majority.

2. Losing a Biden seat in what was a pretty good year for Dems was a worrying sign. But, VA-2 is an interesting seat and always has been due to the strong military presence. With all the political realigning in this country, they don’t seem to have budged that much. I still think of them the same way I thought of them back in 2006 when I first got nerdy about politics.

Reading in the Digest that Dems have spent $13m on Susan Wild blows my mind. That used to be a Senate race sum. Also mentioned in the Digest is Ashley Ehasz, who should be pissed they’re cancelling ad buys there for a NJ seat. We will never win PA-1 if we don’t try. Keep the money in Philly! Oh, NJ-7 is another one. Malinowski got hung up to dry when he could’ve won but we didn’t try. Thankfully, they’re figuring it out and shouldn’t do that again.

With how little ticket splitting is happening, if it’s a Biden seat, it should be a target. $13m to Susan Wild is, well, wild. Make it $10m bc economic principle of diminishing returns means that extra $3m is buying how many votes for Wild? Could that buy us two other seats?

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Just as a reminder that mail-in ballots can take a while to count I sent mine in 10/12 and only got confirmation last night that it was counted. Not too many competitive races in my corner of the state (CO-06).

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There’s a lot of anecdotal stories on Threads of people in Nevada who have not had their ballots counted yet despite returning them a while ago (more pertinent to Washoe than Clark)

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My vote and my wife's were counted within a couple of days here in California. We dropped them into a local drop box.

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Oct 23·edited Oct 23

Hey guys I just have a question about Nevada that I was hoping for some clarification on from some of our more analytic members.

First, the GOP now has a firewall and not us. Everyone keeps saying that the Others will now vote Democratic or lean so, however people have obviously been voting including this group and there doesn't seem to be any indication that they are voting democratic if Republicans now have a mini firewall of their own.

Second, in person voting is going on and isn't the bread and butter of the Machine supposed to be able converting those votes? I mean the Culinary Union literally coordinates time off for people to vote.

So can't you conclude that either

1) the Machine is working but the Union members are voting Republican in good numbers

Or

2) the Machine is not working at all

So dumbfounded by Nevada right now. I'm just not understanding how one thing can be true but not the other in regards to the Others voting Democrat theory or that the Machine is working for us as it should.

Thanks for the insights

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Let's just see where we are in a week

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The NV numbers concern me.

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llort

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Yup. Somebody needed to hold up a mirror.

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These concerns might be misplaced or unjustified, but I don't think the poster is actually being trollish.

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deletedOct 23
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Omfg I am just asking a question. You will never hear me here advocating for any Republican, no less for Pres. Stop comparing me to trolls. I am trying to understand why what is supposed to be the Culinary Union vote right now is coming in red. Trust me hunny I have no idea why someone would be trying to "infiltrate" the downballot comments section. Lort is right.

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deletedOct 23·edited Oct 23
Comment deleted
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Excuse me??? "SHE CAN STILL WIN ALASKA" was the 2016 SNL post election skit.

You are way too paranoid and basically you're the one trolling me now! I'm not saying offensive things nor am I trolling comments such as you are doing boo! I'm sorry you find my couple of posts a day so upsetting but there is no rule being broken in asking questions or pointing things out same as everyone else! Leave me alone please!!

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Are you Charchuterie?

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I had been out of the comments section for a while and only been back for the last two years. Felt like a minute to me with life and work but you all spent a decade doing it.

Asking about NV is fair and always has been. It is possible that Gina is not trolling and they just need to understand that when it comes to NV, you gotta let go and let god. And Reid. And then listen to Ralston talk about how it is going.

NV is a weird messy state where the Dems can easily gerrymander themselves into a veto-proof majority without being ugly but still lose statewide. Different map same gist, Dina Titus rightly said after the gerrymander, “I got fucked.”

Which, that’s just lazy complaining. Well deserved but she still wins. As are the rest of the slate of Dem candidates all while Trump is competitive statewide.

If they are a troll, they are at least trolling the correct state.

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I'm going with overly dramatic(just my opinion)

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Clark County, where most of the votes typically go for Democrats, reports the voting data much later than the earlier voters. This was the case in 2020 as well as in the Senate race in 2022.

I’m personally not sweating over this right now.

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Thank you.

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Keep in mind that Clark County turnout so long as it’s high won’t assure Harris of a large margin of victory. It might end up being closer, as with 2020 and 2022.

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50% of all ballots in 2022 were by mail in NV. 27% was in person early vote and the rest was Election Day. There are still a lot of mail in votes that are outstanding if voting patterns hold.

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OK thank you for your response. But my big question is that the whole Machine is designed to give the Union time off to vote. That would theoretically be in person correct? And the in person vote is not particularly blue. Thus my question about whether the Union has turned against us or the Machine is not working at all.

Thank you again

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The election is in 2 weeks time(that's 13 days from now); your concerns are noted but please, switch to decaf

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Monmouth national poll:

Harris 47-44 with RVs. Harris 51-46 with "extremely motivated" voters.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_102324/

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Those are nice numbers, made nicer by the fact that they weight on 2020 vote (which as has been discussed could push things artificially to the right.)

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My prior is that weighting on 2020 vote favors Dems in FL and SC (where no one is polling) and the GOP almost everywhere else. In most states I think demographic creep would favor Dems, as 18-21 year olds and other newly eligible voters (young workers moving in, naturalized immigrants, etc) would lean blue and subtractions from the electorate (people dying or retirees leaving the state) would lean red. FL and to a lesser extent SC are big magnets for right-wing retirees and have probably added many more R than D voters. The states where I would expect demographic creep to favor Dems the most are GA and TX.

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I agree

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Not sure about SC, yeah there is an influx of retirees, especially in the Grand Strand area, but there is also decent manufacturing growth with the BMW, Volvo, and Boeing plants as well as some Google data centers. Additionally, I think it was a popular destination for relocation at the beginning of the decade when WFH really took off. I’m in Berkeley County, near Charleston where there is still a significant housing boom and it’s not retirees moving in.

I think there are countervailing trends and my suspicion is that growth in the Low Country and Charlotte suburbs will slightly outpace the growth in Myrtle Beach / Horry County and the state will continue to (slowly) trend blue. Additionally, a lot of the red rural counties are losing population and I don’t think there are still significant Demasaurs around that haven’t switched yet. Upstate area is a wildcard. Greenville / Spartanburg area is also growing but is holding steady in its redness. If the new folks since 2024 are heavily Republican then Trump probably will increase his margin, but there’s not really any reason to believe they are.

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There is a long established history of people reporting that they voted for the winning candidate even if they didn't so a +4 Biden sample may actually be a +2 Biden sample. Also demographic changes in the electorate should favor us as well. There are more young voters, minority voters, and a larger percentage of the white vote should be college graduates than in 2020. (This works both ways )

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I saw someone posted here a few days ago about an amazing statistic(if it's true); that college educated whites now outnumber non-college whites(I don't know if this is factually accurate)

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GoUBears posted the ACS estimates of 2019 v 2023 (which are probably usable as functional shorthand for the 2020 and 2024 populations). Essentially he/she/they suggested that there are 3.7 million more whites with college degrees over 25 in 2023, and 6.1 million fewer whites without a college degree in 2023. In not a statistician but I believe that’s a net shift of 9.8 million, a staggeringly large number.

The figure of both these demo cohorts being at roughly 70 million total I think was more of an estimate and not from the ACS survey/study. Also, bear in mind that this only accounts for the 25+ age bracket, so that’s a large demographic cohort of potential voters being excluded.

I’ll let people better at math than I extrapolate how that may effect the electorate/voting outcomes

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That's the one; thanks for updating

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Oct 23·edited Oct 23

Depends on the definitions, but yes, we may well be at that point. Per the ACS (whose accuracy in making precise statements is debatable, but their stated MoEs are generally under 100k), among non-Hispanic whites over 25, those with an associate's (which side of the divide they get measured on varies), bachelor's, and/or graduate degree numbered 1.5 million fewer than their counterparts in 2023. That gap's been narrowing by about 2 to 2.5 million per year per their figures, but I'm not entirely sure how the numbers work out for that. We see somewhere north of 3 million deaths per year, roughly 2/3 of them being white, and most of them being seniors. White women are certainly earning degrees at a higher rate, but for men, the increase is marginal (see below). Perhaps remote learning during the pandemic is the underlying factor.

My guess at the rate with degrees for whites by gender and age based on ACS data:

25-34: women 59% vs. men 48%

35-44: 60% vs. 50%

45-50: 51% vs. 45%

65+: 40% vs. 45% (and this will certainly be more dramatic for those over 80, who have far higher death rates than the group at large)

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Those spending decisions point to a DCCC offensive strategy

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Also notice that all the Democratic incumbents who look to be safe are in suburban light blue or purple districts. Yet another sign of suburban strength.

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You nailed it; college education and surbuban women(just like2022; but with an overall more engaged Democratic party base)

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Yup. And key thing is that Trump is toxic for suburban voters here, especially women.

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Which ones?

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The Digest?

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Some Wisconsin stats, incorporating a big absentee dump this AM and the first day of in-person voting (which drew a shade under 100K statewide). I'm not sure exactly what to make of these, but it looks like liberals and older Republicans are both coming out to the polls.

Overall turnout: 16.1%

Dane: 20.0%

Milwaukee: 15.6%

WOW counties: 20.2%

BOW counties: 17.5%

Dane-adjacent: (Rock, Sauk, Iowa, Green, Jefferson, Columbia): 15.8%

Blue enclaves (Eau Claire, La Crosse, Portage, Menominee, Ashland, Bayfield, Douglas): 15.8%

Rest of state (quite red): 13.6%

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In this, the best sign I see for Dems is the weak rural R turnout. The worst sign is that the WOW counties lead the state in the in-person category (they had 5% turnout just yesterday, compared to say 3% for Dane and 2.5% for Milwaukee). As in other states, we are seeing committed Republicans coming out at the start of early voting.

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Which levelled off in VA, PA and GA. NV hasn't... yet.

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WOW, particularly Waukesha, is definitely an area I'm watching closely. We saw pretty significant t movement lefteard in recent years. Jr's still quite Republican, but losing it 60-40 is a LOT different than losing it 75-25, especially with how many people live there.

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BOW being Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago? I usually call those the Fox valley. That area is light red, Trump won those counties by 7, 10, and 4 respectively in 2020.

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Are any candidates for Portland Mayor not corrupt or crazy(some are both)? Any locals want to give updates?

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Which Portland?

(I have read about unwary travelers who booked flights and ended up on the wrong coast.)

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Imo the R's are somewhat cannibalizing their E-day vote; am I misinterpreting these numbers posted above?

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Maybe. Probably easier to assess that by this time next week.

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