Putting aside the top-line races, Dems are still very much poised to take the House. NY-04, NY-19, and NY-22 are all just waiting to be called. We are ahead in PA-10, NE-02, AZ-01, and AZ-06. People smarter than me think IA-01 is also in danger of flipping. Kaptur and Susan Wild are in absolute nail-biters, but the remaining vote is friendly turf in both cases. No other D incumbent is in any danger as of yet (apart from an obvious data error in IL-13).
Bohannon has now pulled ahead of Miller-Meeks with most of the remaining vote in Johnson County (bluest county in Iowa). Looks like Selzer got one thing right at least.
We may have some gains in the CA House races. In CA-13 Adam Gray (D) is leading with 51.5% over John Duarte (R-inc) who won in'22 by under a 1K margin. CA-27 is almost a dead heat, with Mike Garcia (R-inc) with 50.3% over George Whitesides (D). That one will have to wait on counting all the votes. Over in Riverside Co in CA-41 Will Rollins (D) is leading with 52.1% over Ken Calvert (R-inc) who has held a seat since 1993. Good riddance to Calvert if these numbers hold up! Another GOP incumbent might lose in CA-45. That is Michelle Steel with 48.7% losing to Derek Tran (D) who now has 51.3% of the vote. Things don't look as good in CA-22, where David Valadao (R-inc) is up 54% to 46% over Rudy Salas (D).
The most endangered Dem-held seat in CA is the OC district that is open because Katie Porter ran for Senate. So far so good: State Senator Dave Min (D) is at 55.2% over his GOP opponent to hold it for the CDP.
In all California races it is important to wait for the late counted votes if things are at all close. It looks like we may pick up four seats, but we aren't there yet.
Lots of work left to do, but let's take a short break and get back into the fight; everyone who worked hard this election, Thank You and keep your head held high
Big dropoff from Trump to Sam Brown in Clark, where he is losing to Rosen by 46K. I think that margin will keep growing and save her. Also, Rep. Susie Lee not out of the woods yet, up by 2,600 votes but should win.
@RalstonReports
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7m
For those crazy enough to be awake, Clark updated with 167K votes and it's over for Harris in NV. What Trump did was remarkable and I couldn't have (didn't) predicted it: He played her to a draw in Clark w/900K votes counted. These indies are not who we thought they were.
I'm one of those crazy (or, more accurately, distraught) ones who can't sleep. It's kind of amazing how many of the signs we all reasonably looked to and the realistic assumptions we made turned out to be false. Hope we take the house. Seems unlikely. Hope we hold the losses in the Senate to as few as we can.
The House is impossible to call at this point. Could go either way. Too many votes still out in too many races and I’m sure there will be several recounts.
As for president, it’s pretty clear that this country is not ready to elect a woman and that it wants a perceived “strongman” to run things even if he is a disgusting human being and a criminal. The country has abandoned any sense of right and wrong.
I think the biggest problem is that 72% of the country is dissatisfied with the direction of the country. As delusional as that impression may be, I don't know how the incumbent party can win with those kind of metrics.
I am about to look at the 67 County map of Florida but I am pretty sure we got destroyed in the Hispanic vote; if we can't effectively message to the Hispanic population here we are not in the ballgame(the voter universe here is such that only that group could change the trends currently swamping the Democratic party); no matter how much money and time is spent(which doesn't mean that we should just give up the fight)
It's definitely that here in Florida(Hispanic consolidation); I must admit I saw 2 things that I was relying on that I used that went badly for my prognostication; 1\the Selzer poll drop and 2\the Ralston Nevada prediction of Harris carrying his state; I trusted both of them due to reputation and thought our side had done its job
One thing else that gave me an overconfident feeling was very early last night, Nancy Pelosi released a public statement saying 'Democrats had the votes to win the House'; again by her reputation for knowing how to 'count votes', I am naturally thinking it bodes very well for the Democratic party
Baldwin has taken the lead. Slotkin is down by 14,000, but only 82% of Wayne County has reported. Casey is down 1%, but there still a number of votes from SE PA to countl
I am officially pessimistic.
I think she wins NE-02, MI, and WI, and that's it.
Not giving up, but think we are in deep trouble.
62 and 65 respectively Trump on NYT right now. They have been fairly accurate.
Not nearly as many mail in ballots then though
No posts here?
I'm on #3. How is it going?
CBS: Harris running behind NC
I'd much rather be Trump right now than Kamala, that's all
I feel like it's way too early to say that.
Just looking at the numbers. Still a path for both for sure.
Putting aside the top-line races, Dems are still very much poised to take the House. NY-04, NY-19, and NY-22 are all just waiting to be called. We are ahead in PA-10, NE-02, AZ-01, and AZ-06. People smarter than me think IA-01 is also in danger of flipping. Kaptur and Susan Wild are in absolute nail-biters, but the remaining vote is friendly turf in both cases. No other D incumbent is in any danger as of yet (apart from an obvious data error in IL-13).
Just as I post this, NY-22 is called. The first flip of the night - Dems finally kicked the football in Syracuse.
Bohannon has now pulled ahead of Miller-Meeks with most of the remaining vote in Johnson County (bluest county in Iowa). Looks like Selzer got one thing right at least.
We may have some gains in the CA House races. In CA-13 Adam Gray (D) is leading with 51.5% over John Duarte (R-inc) who won in'22 by under a 1K margin. CA-27 is almost a dead heat, with Mike Garcia (R-inc) with 50.3% over George Whitesides (D). That one will have to wait on counting all the votes. Over in Riverside Co in CA-41 Will Rollins (D) is leading with 52.1% over Ken Calvert (R-inc) who has held a seat since 1993. Good riddance to Calvert if these numbers hold up! Another GOP incumbent might lose in CA-45. That is Michelle Steel with 48.7% losing to Derek Tran (D) who now has 51.3% of the vote. Things don't look as good in CA-22, where David Valadao (R-inc) is up 54% to 46% over Rudy Salas (D).
The most endangered Dem-held seat in CA is the OC district that is open because Katie Porter ran for Senate. So far so good: State Senator Dave Min (D) is at 55.2% over his GOP opponent to hold it for the CDP.
In all California races it is important to wait for the late counted votes if things are at all close. It looks like we may pick up four seats, but we aren't there yet.
I hope Harris wins with PA, MI, WI, NE-02, and either AZ, GA, and/or NV.
Fundamentally the issue is that Democrats don’t know how to talk to ordinary Americans.
It's over. Trump sweeps the battleground, GOP probably wins all Senate but AZ. House will be tight
I haven't seen the rust belt called for him yet.
It's not looking great, but there's still small hope.
Sure.
Fox has called PA.
Lots of work left to do, but let's take a short break and get back into the fight; everyone who worked hard this election, Thank You and keep your head held high
Nevada. Good and bad news from Ralston
Big dropoff from Trump to Sam Brown in Clark, where he is losing to Rosen by 46K. I think that margin will keep growing and save her. Also, Rep. Susie Lee not out of the woods yet, up by 2,600 votes but should win.
@RalstonReports
·
7m
For those crazy enough to be awake, Clark updated with 167K votes and it's over for Harris in NV. What Trump did was remarkable and I couldn't have (didn't) predicted it: He played her to a draw in Clark w/900K votes counted. These indies are not who we thought they were.
I'm one of those crazy (or, more accurately, distraught) ones who can't sleep. It's kind of amazing how many of the signs we all reasonably looked to and the realistic assumptions we made turned out to be false. Hope we take the house. Seems unlikely. Hope we hold the losses in the Senate to as few as we can.
Honestly I am not convinced taking the House is a good thing; having the Republicans with a 1 seat margin may work to our favor
That's crazy but we need to find out why; we are missing something somewhere that money spent will not fix
Based on what’s out, Casey, Baldwin and Slotkin all still have a shot. Might be toughest for Baldwin.
Anything there would be good news but Trump will gaslight all the way
I think it might be toughest for Slotkin....unless the Wayne County portion left is all Detroit.
Actually I think they both win and it's Casey who loses(needless to say, I am probably last place in that bobka contest)
Depends on what's left in Philly with Casey. Looks like Baldwin will eke it out though. Now we'll see about Rosen
I am pulling for Casey of course, but I would have thought he was safest of the 3
The House is impossible to call at this point. Could go either way. Too many votes still out in too many races and I’m sure there will be several recounts.
As for president, it’s pretty clear that this country is not ready to elect a woman and that it wants a perceived “strongman” to run things even if he is a disgusting human being and a criminal. The country has abandoned any sense of right and wrong.
Agreed👍
We do have a turnout issue among what I consider natural Democratic voters(and money spent is not a solution)
I think the biggest problem is that 72% of the country is dissatisfied with the direction of the country. As delusional as that impression may be, I don't know how the incumbent party can win with those kind of metrics.
We do have a history of isolationism and xenophobia(unfortunately imo)
I am about to look at the 67 County map of Florida but I am pretty sure we got destroyed in the Hispanic vote; if we can't effectively message to the Hispanic population here we are not in the ballgame(the voter universe here is such that only that group could change the trends currently swamping the Democratic party); no matter how much money and time is spent(which doesn't mean that we should just give up the fight)
Our Senate candidates are consistently out running our top of ticket(we have to figure out what we are missing; or is it unique?)
Actually most of the Senate candidates are running below Harris. It's just that the Republican Senate candidates are running further below Trump.
Agreed👍 I kind of jumbled the post; mainly it's just a strong Trump showing
If we are winning Illinois and New Jersey by only 4-6%; we have a lot of analysis to do
Seems like the story is pretty much the same everywhere.....Hispanics. The big underperformance in Illinois is Cook County. Most of the suburbs held.
It's definitely that here in Florida(Hispanic consolidation); I must admit I saw 2 things that I was relying on that I used that went badly for my prognostication; 1\the Selzer poll drop and 2\the Ralston Nevada prediction of Harris carrying his state; I trusted both of them due to reputation and thought our side had done its job
Ralston and Selzer definitely comes out of this with their reputations most in tatters.....especially Selzer.
One thing else that gave me an overconfident feeling was very early last night, Nancy Pelosi released a public statement saying 'Democrats had the votes to win the House'; again by her reputation for knowing how to 'count votes', I am naturally thinking it bodes very well for the Democratic party
Illinois by 8
Thanks👍 I need to go over the updated numbers but we need to look at why it's 'only' 8
Baldwin has taken the lead. Slotkin is down by 14,000, but only 82% of Wayne County has reported. Casey is down 1%, but there still a number of votes from SE PA to countl
Plus let's keep eyes on Gallego and Rosen
Jon Ralston says Rosen will win. Outstanding vote probably favors Gallego.
Trump is consistently out running his ticket(it's kind of unique)