The Nates, Cohn and Silver, have attributed the differences in polling accuracy since 2016 are down to tRump either on off the ballot. When he's off, the thinking is that people are responding in a more forthright manner, and the data gathered much more reflects the ACTUAL vote preference of those polled; OTOH, when tRump is on the ballot, there now surfaces what they term the "hidden trump voter", a respondent reluctant or too "shy" to admit his/her preference, thus the infamous "tRump undercount".
And that remains the poll gurus' general posture today, their hedge, as it were, as a call/forecast of a tRump EC win. Let's see if that particular scenario follows through in 2024.
I can sort of follow the analysis but I would not pass a multiple choice test on its contents. That said, if memory serves me well all the votes on abortion access since Roe have gone resoundingly for increased access no matter the redness or blueness of the state. This gives me hope, not enough hope to take my foot off the canvass, phone bank, post card, etc. metal but enough to go to sleep exhausted and wake up in the morning ready to go hard at it again.
If this was a popular vote Trump would not even be in the picture, but because of the undemocratic electoral college the election for President will be a squeaker. But with Husband raising money in Texas and Harris going there to campaign and the Senate race there close it makes me wonder if the Presidential campaign knows something the rest of us are not seeing! With the money advantage and district polls showing House Dems and challengers in good shape my feeling is the Dems capture the House by 5 votes or more. Which leaves me donating my middle-class money to the Senate candidates in Texas and Florida and the independent in Nebraska. Brown in Ohio should squeak through, the rest of the incumbents look like they will be okay, except for Tester who looks lost and Manchin is gone. So with luck or God's help we will hold even or gain one in the Senate! With that the do as little as possible Dems in the governor offices and legislators in the blue states (old and new from the elections) should pass universal vote by mail (as some have done) and combine the local elections with the midterm elections. These reforms boost voter turnout and save tax dollars- wow, Democrats could use for tax cuts for working folks.
If a person who does not participate in any campaign activities is contacted by a pollster and says they are voting for person "Z" and a person who has mailed 300 get out the vote postcards to Michigan and knocked on 100 doors canvasing in their home state of Wisconsin, etc. says they are voting for person "Y" does their poll response have the same weight. If so it seems as though something may off.
The Nates, Cohn and Silver, have attributed the differences in polling accuracy since 2016 are down to tRump either on off the ballot. When he's off, the thinking is that people are responding in a more forthright manner, and the data gathered much more reflects the ACTUAL vote preference of those polled; OTOH, when tRump is on the ballot, there now surfaces what they term the "hidden trump voter", a respondent reluctant or too "shy" to admit his/her preference, thus the infamous "tRump undercount".
And that remains the poll gurus' general posture today, their hedge, as it were, as a call/forecast of a tRump EC win. Let's see if that particular scenario follows through in 2024.
I can sort of follow the analysis but I would not pass a multiple choice test on its contents. That said, if memory serves me well all the votes on abortion access since Roe have gone resoundingly for increased access no matter the redness or blueness of the state. This gives me hope, not enough hope to take my foot off the canvass, phone bank, post card, etc. metal but enough to go to sleep exhausted and wake up in the morning ready to go hard at it again.
Thanks for your activism
The Washington Post link is pay walled; can anyone here help? Thanks
is there a particular article you want from them?
Yes; the one linked above👆; thanks
The last link in David Nir’s excellent article is to a WaPo article.
The one related to the GOTV(I'm sure it's about how bad Musk is at GOTV)
Here is a gift link to the WaPo article.
https://wapo.st/40broAU
Thanks👍
If this was a popular vote Trump would not even be in the picture, but because of the undemocratic electoral college the election for President will be a squeaker. But with Husband raising money in Texas and Harris going there to campaign and the Senate race there close it makes me wonder if the Presidential campaign knows something the rest of us are not seeing! With the money advantage and district polls showing House Dems and challengers in good shape my feeling is the Dems capture the House by 5 votes or more. Which leaves me donating my middle-class money to the Senate candidates in Texas and Florida and the independent in Nebraska. Brown in Ohio should squeak through, the rest of the incumbents look like they will be okay, except for Tester who looks lost and Manchin is gone. So with luck or God's help we will hold even or gain one in the Senate! With that the do as little as possible Dems in the governor offices and legislators in the blue states (old and new from the elections) should pass universal vote by mail (as some have done) and combine the local elections with the midterm elections. These reforms boost voter turnout and save tax dollars- wow, Democrats could use for tax cuts for working folks.
Thanks for your donations
Who are you referring to here?
" the do as little as possible Dems in the governor offices and legislators in the blue states"
Hochul and the corrupt Adams in New York seem like good candidates.
If you are able(thanks for the free link!!); read the article about America PAC GOTV; excuse my language please, but it's a Clusterfuck
Update on NV. The numbers don’t look good:
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
If a person who does not participate in any campaign activities is contacted by a pollster and says they are voting for person "Z" and a person who has mailed 300 get out the vote postcards to Michigan and knocked on 100 doors canvasing in their home state of Wisconsin, etc. says they are voting for person "Y" does their poll response have the same weight. If so it seems as though something may off.