These are over performances of the incumbent compared to polling average and what models predicted the outcome to be. Bottomline, at the end of the day incumbent usually outperform their polling averages. I am guessing because at you get a slight over sample of the vocal minority who are ready to toss the candidate out of office. Of course the original premise went back to the polling error in 2020 and reasons for it.
Here are some notables from 2022
Governor
DeSantis +7.9
Abbott +.5 (pretty close)
Walz +3.4 (Not Surprising!)
Whitmer +9.6 (LOL!!)
Senate
Warnock (+2.3 regular, runoff not so much but kind of weird one)
Kelly +4.3
Bennett +6.2
Cortez Masto +2.4 (enough to flip race)
Ron Johnson -2 (Major error not focusing on this race!)
Murray +9.8
Thanks
Are those increases over the margins in the previous election for each candidate?
These are over performances of the incumbent compared to polling average and what models predicted the outcome to be. Bottomline, at the end of the day incumbent usually outperform their polling averages. I am guessing because at you get a slight over sample of the vocal minority who are ready to toss the candidate out of office. Of course the original premise went back to the polling error in 2020 and reasons for it.