242 Comments

NOT "The Downers."

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Definitely not.

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Balloteers!

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I like that!

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how about downbies?

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Ballotites.

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How about the DeeBees?

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Deutsche Bahn.

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I like this. I'm pronouncing it in my head with a Chicago accent, as if it was "the bees." Also a great logo opportunity.

And DB also echoes "database" which we all probably like, too.

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Just filled up my tank to go on my trip over the weekend. Paid$2.90/gal, how about you all??🤔

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Slight just above $3 in NJ.

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I'm in New Smyrna Beach, Florida for reference👍

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Well over $3 in CO.

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$3.99 in California. Prices are down and are expected to go lower after Labor Day. Good News!

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$3.60 in central PA

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Where pray tell are you paying under $4 in California. Costco Tustin (OC) is $4.37 and regular stations in Irvine are 4.70.

The current gas I'm using I paid 3.09 for in Arizona.

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Van Nuys, in the middle of the San Fernando Valley. I saw that price at two stations.

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In the Bay Area (I live in Berkeley) prices are still above $4.

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I WISH I could find $3.99! But its definitely gotten lower in Sacramento. I paid $4.25, almost 40 cents cheaper than this time two weeks ago...

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3.19 yesterday, in Portland, Oregon.

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$3.39 SW Florida

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Gasoline, what's that? :-) I'm laboring on Labor Day weekend, and taking public transit and walking to and from work, as usual. I have tomorrow off and have big ideas of doing a 4.5-mile urban hike, but it may rain too much.

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I just paid $3.49, but that's above average for my area. (Didn't want to bother driving farther on "moving day" traffic. Leases all roll over 9-1 in the Boston area.)

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2.70 in coastal SC

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In TN a bit under three right now.

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Three what? What race, according to whom?

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Sorry responding to the gas price question.

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Oh. I thought it might have been some screwy presidential polling.

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How about DBers?

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I was going to say Downballotters, but since people like short names, I think you've got the winner!

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That was my first thought as well, but I admit it's not especially creative.

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If we want to be creative, we could call ourselves something like "InTheWeeders," but it won't catch on.

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Many (most?) polls underestimated Trump's margins in 2016 and 2020. Is there any reason to believe this won't happen again? Why or why not?

I would guess that this has been discussed before but, as a casual DKE lurker, I haven't seen it. Any links would be appreciated.

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I read recently that pollsters in 2016 and 2020 when they were conducting their polls some folks would answer “F you I’m voting for trump,” which wasn’t counted because well they didn’t complete all the poll questions. This cycle apparently polls are including these partial responses in their polls.

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If that's true, that was a bad malpractice.

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I'll take a stab at it: Clinton's support was softer than acknowledged, more of an "I suppose so" than solid YES commitment. 2020 seemed less about Biden, but a "retention" vote on Trump. Now, Harris has the edge in energy, momentum (especially going into early voting).

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As I recall from various articles and podcasts, data experts draw distinctions between 2016 and 2020.

In 2016, the error wasn't as as bad as 2020. It's just remembered as worse because of the awful surprise at the top of the ticket. It was likely tied to a low representation of white non-college voters. But there's plenty of evidence that it also was exacerbated by late deciders (thanks, Comey).

In 2020, the error was actually worse, particularly for congressional races. The pandemic may have been the main reason. More Democrats were home to answer calls, and some may have hesitant to go to the polls because they took Covid more seriously.

We can hope that pollsters have now overcompensated by weighting non-college voters more heavily so that their turnout models now favor Republicans. After two straight presidential elections of underestimating Republicans, it wouldn't be surprising if they did overcompensate. At the same time, non-college white voters who are suspicious of calls from pollsters are more paranoid and insane than ever.

There's going to be some systemic polling error. Until the results are in though, we won't know how how much or in which directions.

I did find some interesting articles in researching your question:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-polls-were-mostly-wrong/

https://www.pewresearch.org/methods/2021/04/08/confronting-2016-and-2020-polling-limitations/

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/04/why-election-polls-were-wrong-in-2016-and-2020-and-whats-changing.html

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I would even go so far as to say 2016 was barely an error — leading by 3 and winning by 2 (in the popular vote) is extremely close to accurate. It was the state polling that was crap — basically Hillary hit her margins and Trump took almost every undecided voter.

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Being off by 5% isn't an error? In many fields, that would be not only an error but more than a sufficient discrepancy to be the difference between success and disaster. Clearly, politics is one of them.

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It was a 1 point diff in 2016, not 5 pts. I agree 2020 was a different beast.

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Oh right, yes.

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They also have had screwy crosstabs for elderly people, though. Less so since Harris substituted for Biden, but I don't think we should trust any crosstabs.

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Progressives were so obsessed with COVID back then and wanted everyone to stay at home forever with permanent lockdowns. I made fun of the ones who stayed at home completely. I called them “lockdown lovers”.

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Nobody wanted that. Don't troll. What some sensible people wanted was a complete lockdown for 2 weeks when that might have wiped out the early Covid strain from the country completely.

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Back then on DKos there were posters saying that.

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There were people saying they wanted everyone to stay home forever? I doubt they actually wanted that. But even if so, you're talking about a tiny lunatic fringe of stupid people. I know you are stridently anti-progressive, but you really ought to curb that tendency, because engaging in tendentious trolling is likely to eventually bring you to the attention of the moderators for disrupting collegial discussion.

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Who? Name names, please. I certainly wish there had been actual lockdowns to try to save people’s lives, and may have commented as such, but I certainly do not remember anyone pushing for permanent lockdowns.

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COVID restrictions cost Democrats VA-GOV in 2021.

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So, you have no evidence. Got it.

I would advise while being on a progressive election website maybe don’t punch down against people in your party on a brand new website. You’ll get unwanted attention quickly and it’s supposed to be a refresh for everyone. You can get your point across without walking the line of trolling.

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Indeed.

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That doesn't mean the restrictions in place weren't reasonable.

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They weren’t. I got depressed being isolated. I rarely wore masks and never got COVID.

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And a lot of us lost loved ones due to people like you who refused to isolate or wear masks. Because you assumed you didn't get it due to being asymptomatic.

Also, "I didn't wear a mask or isolate and I was fine" is not the same as "the restrictions were unnecessary."

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I think they were too much. Thank God CO wasn’t as strict as other states.

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Are you sure you're on the right website? Selfish people usually aren't Democrats. Boo hoo on your depression! Almost everybody was depressed, and many of us not only lost friends and colleagues but thought we were all gonna die in that plague! Be glad you didn't have the misfortune of living in the country's primary port of entry, where every freakin day for a month and a half was like September 11, 2001 with ambulances going by every 20-30 minutes, taking more patients to their deaths, and the next month was almost as bad. But sure, just focus on yourself and troll us. I'm losing patience with you very quickly!

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This kind of broad-brush, evidence-free attack on "progressives" writ large doesn't have a place here.

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Possibly but it may not be as much of a concern this year as opposed to 2016 and 2020 simply because of the following dynamics:

-No concern anymore about social distancing preventing canvassing and GOTV activity for Democrats in turning out voters.

-Sentiment towards Kamala Harris as the Democratic Presidential Nominee being stronger than both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden's campaigns as Democratic Presidential Nominees.

-Trump really not running a campaign different from 2016 or 2020.

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He actually is running a campaign different from the last 2, because he's so singularly focused on revenge this time and has much more motivation, as a convicted felon, to keep himself out of prison.

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True although from the standpoint of the last two presidential elections, it’s really Trump being Trump.

And I think the singular focus on revenge is what’s going to harm him in November. I don’t know by numbers but I suspect that back in 2020 there were a handful of loyal Republicans who got disillusioned by Trump’s petty antics post-Biden’s victory. Most Republicans in general though stayed loyal.

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There were certainly a fair number of people, whether Republicans or more likely Republican-leaning independents, who voted Republican downballot but voted for Biden, and I believe they made the difference in some states.

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A worthwhile question. But my answer is: we don't know. Polls could be largely correct, or wrong, in either direction. I think it is poor analysis to assume that just because a pollster, or group of pollsters, erred in one direction once, or even twice, that it will happen again. That there's something fundamental about 2016 and especially 2020 that makes it so that pollsters are helpless to do anything other than underestimate Trump again. I will say that my assumption is that we're headed for a repeat of 2020, so anything showing Trump winning I am assuming is overestimating him, and anything showing a big Harris win is underestimating Trump. But that's just my gut feeling! No way to know for sure yet. A group of pollsters became so convinced after 2020 that the only way to accurately model elections was to just manually increase the number of Republicans in their samples - they fell flat on their faces after the 2022 midterms, as traditional pollsters fared much better.

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His an interesting thought I had today. The incumbency factor is interesting to look at as well. In 2020 Trump was about +2.7 compared to polling, but if you look at 2012 Obama was +3.7 compared to polling and even 2004 Bush was +1. I think a lot goes into this but I would guess a driving factoring is haters who favor change are slightly over sampled in polling due to the factor that they are more likely to voice their displeasure in polls. I would also say Trump's ground game was superior to Biden's in 2020 due to social distancing factors and I expect that not to be the case in 2024.

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Interesting idea. Have you checked in non-pres races? Governors, Senators? It makes some sense that those not reachably by polls might be uninformed and when voting just say "well, let's stay the course." There has long been an idea that undecideds break for the challenger, but I don't think that's held up, at least not strongly - I just don't know how actual polling margins are affected.

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Here are some notables from 2022

Governor

DeSantis +7.9

Abbott +.5 (pretty close)

Walz +3.4 (Not Surprising!)

Whitmer +9.6 (LOL!!)

Senate

Warnock (+2.3 regular, runoff not so much but kind of weird one)

Kelly +4.3

Bennett +6.2

Cortez Masto +2.4 (enough to flip race)

Ron Johnson -2 (Major error not focusing on this race!)

Murray +9.8

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Thanks

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Are those increases over the margins in the previous election for each candidate?

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These are over performances of the incumbent compared to polling average and what models predicted the outcome to be. Bottomline, at the end of the day incumbent usually outperform their polling averages. I am guessing because at you get a slight over sample of the vocal minority who are ready to toss the candidate out of office. Of course the original premise went back to the polling error in 2020 and reasons for it.

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I always get nervous when it gets closer to Election Day, but as it's approaching Labor Day when people really start to properly tune in, more grassroots GOTV and organizing/canvassing on the ground is required than ever, because the thought of another 2016 keeps me up at night. As long as Kamala can keep Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and MAYBE eek out Georgia or North Carolina she wins hands down and the Trump horror show ends permanently!! 💙🇺🇲🌊🙏

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If he's still alive in 4 years, don't be surprised if he runs again, even from prison. He might be the undead presidential candidate!

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We can always use Trump's help for fundraising. :)

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I would almost make a wager that he will definitely not be alive to run again if it weren't so damned morbid. Frankly, I am not confident he'll actually make it til the Election.

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One never knows, though. Who expected Dick Cheney to still be alive?

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Dick Cheney received a heart transplant. Medical science, last I checked, does not have the ability to perform a brain transplant and, even if such a thing were possible, it would not keep trump alive.

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Ok, that's very funny! But still, I doubted Cheney would survive a single term.

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Trump's problem is that he loves fast food, which he won't hesitate to grab when given the chance. If he invested in healthier food options such as the mediterranean diet, he might have more energy.

Then again, no real diet would change Trump's personality for who he's been his whole life.

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Allegedly in part due to paranoia about being poisoned.

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He should have a Royal Taster to address that problem.

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Hahaha. Possibly!

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WEEKEND AT DONNIE’S

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I know it is morbid, but I dread the time when Trump actually does die because I fear his supporters will not handle it well . I fear we will see a bunch of conspiracy theories about his death and ensuring chaos and violence.

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I think this mainly depends on how unhinged he reacts to his defeat to kamala and the ultimate aftermath

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Yes, but unless they believe he's undead or something, his death will cause the cult of Trump to weaken greatly. I'd like to see him serve time in prison before he dies, though.

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I really believe Trump has become Lonesome Rhodes, the name character Andy Griffith played in the film A Face in the Crowd.

Like Trump, Lonesome Rhodes became famous and he let his fame consume him to the degree where he became arrogant and narcissistic. Rhodes ended up losing everything in the end.

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Except when was Trump not arrogant and narcissistic?

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Trump has primarily been arrogant and narcissistic because of the celebrity he's become but it wasn't always this way as much. When he first started off in real estate, his personality was considerably much calmer, at least if you're looking at older clips of him talking about his business as far back as in the early 80's.

Of course, Mary Trump and Fred Trump's son have been upfront about who Trump is and how he was always this way. However, as he became more powerful and wealthy, his arrogance and narcissism dramatically increased.

Lonesome Rhodes in A Face of the Crowd embodied many of the same characteristics that Trump has. The only difference is that Rhodes was not privileged before he became a celebrity.

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I don't know that I agree, just because I would argue MAGA has been almost entirely taken over by QAnon type thinking now.

I think the vast majority refuse to believe he's dead. That or they insist that Harris/Biden/Hillary/the deep state has him killed.

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People survived after Elvis died, and I suspect they will find a way to manage after Trump is gone as well.

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I thought either Downies or the far more tongue in cheek Downuts were the natural options.

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Downies works for me.

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Downuts would harken back to "Swingnuts" for the followers of SSP, but the term Wingnut was much more popular then than now. (And Swingnut was a closer play on it.)

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I was only making a play on donuts.

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The Balloteers?

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This one rolls off the tongue the nicest.

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Downnuts ain't bad, BTW

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I'm hearing that said in Homer Simpson's voice.

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As you probably should.

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Doh!

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All the ballot initiatives are passing. However, the abortion ban after the first trimester is out polling the abortion until viability question. Whichever gets more votes becomes law.

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Also the senate race only has a one-point lead for incumbent Fisher (R) over Dan Osborn. Hard to believe but amazing if true.

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Probably not true.

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only speculation, but this could be a race where 80% of late deciders vote Republican or just simply a bad poll

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I actually believe that the congressional race could be won by the Democrat; money is pouring into the race from everywhere

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It'll be interesting to see if the Neb approach finally is an abortion strategy that works for the GOP.

One question: Can voters vote for both amendments? If so, that's a huge (and unfair) advantage for the first trimester amendment, because many (most?) pro-rights people will vote for both while a lot of anti-choice people will also vote for it. The viability amendment won't enjoy that cumulative benefit.

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Yes, of course they can vote for - or against - both amendments.

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Here are my 31- and 14-day polling averages for the states and the nation. I weight every poll equally but omit internals and some partisan outfits that I don't trust (Ras, Trafalgar, etc). For the state 14-day averages, the number of polls is in parentheses.

AZ: 31-day H+0.1, 14-day T+0.5 (4)

GA: 31-day T+0.7, 14-day H+0.7 (4)

MI: 31-day H+1.4, 14-day H+1.8 (6)

NV: 31-day H+2.4, 14-day H+1.8 (4)

NC: 31-day T+0.1, 14-day H+0.2 (5)

PA: 31-day H+1.2, 14-day H+0.8 (5)

WI: 31-day H+3.8, 14-day H+3.8 (4)

US: 31-day H+3.0, 14-day H+4.0

Looks pretty good for Harris overall. Of course polls were too favorable to Dems in 2016 and 2020, but that seems less likely this year as the generic ballot (D+2.3 in 538) is only modestly better than 2022 and behind 2020. The 14-day PA average doesn't look very good, but it's a somewhat right-leaning group of polls: Fabrizio, Emerson, Bloomberg, Redfield + Wilton, and Wick. All things considered, I would much rather be us than them at this point.

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I can't edit the post. The US 14-day average has 26 polls, not 4.

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If you click on the three dots at the bottom of your post, there should be an edit function.

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Only on the computer, not on mobile last time I checked.

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Insider Advantage

800 LV each

August 31 only

Arizona

49/48 Trump

Georgia

Tie

Nevada

48/47 Trump

North Carolina

49/48 Trump

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According to Fivethirtyeight this pollster was the 4th-most accurate in 2020 FYI

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This is a republican pollster, and they were the worst in 2022. On average, they had a GOP +7 bias. The day before election, they had Oz beating Fetterman by 2. Fetterman won by 5. They had Shapiro winning by 7, he won by 14. They had Whitmer and Tudor tied in Michigan. Whitmer won by 10. They had Kari Lake beating Dobbs by 11. Lake lost. They are really bad.

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Taking AZ as an example, Lake in a nosedive and pro-choice referendum solidly ahead (as it seems now) doesn't sound like enough Trump voters to me?

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Lake is toasted. Really unpopular amongst indies in AZ. won't be surprised if Gallego win is close to double digits. Ofc, abortion referendum won't help her.

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I contend Lake was triaged in mid-August(if not sooner); she has little (if any)party support; simply a toxic candidate that won't be financed going forward (especially with Trump hoovering up the lion's share of all national fundraising)

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Said this on Discord.

Top line actually very good. GA Harris +1, NC/NV Trump +1, AZ near tie.

They don’t dare to post the crosstab, just a faint image on the website. They don’t seem to be internally consistent though. Don’t seem to be a set of weights that you can reconcile the sections with the headline. Tend to think they are pure faked.

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Are you able to give us your thoughts on the latest polls other than this one above.. I'm especially interested if you believe that many are credible at all..??for example, the Trafalgar posted just below👇👇👇

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The bow tie guy at Trafalgar hasn’t checked into a mental facility yet? Hmm, he ate his words.

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disregard all this...amazing how these pollsters got essentially the same result in everyone of the states...

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Trafalgar

1080 LV ea

8/31

Pennsylvania

47/45 Trump

Michigan

Tie

Wisconsin

47/46 Trump

Sorry no crosstabs for either of these via X atm

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Trafalgar isn't a serious pollster. They add Republicans to whatever actual survey result they get until it feels right to them.

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Robert Cahaly just says Republicans lead by 1-2 points, and he misses by however much he is off by, which varies from. A little to a lot. He's not a serious pollster.

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I suspect he actually just makes up numbers, whether that's whole cloth or through his BS house "unskewing" special sauce. I don't say that lightly.

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He admitted it. He adds a certain amount to Trump to reflect what he believes is an “invisible” Trump vote not picked up by the polls. He obviously does the same with Republican statewide candidates, which is how he made a fool of himself in 2022.

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It seems that both Trump and RFK Jr absorbed the elite cultural value that holds that a lawsuit is how you express your displeasure with a situation irrespective of the chances of success.

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It's a little late and maybe if he offered to foot the total bill for reprints, he'd have a case. But he probably lacks the brain power to deduce that.

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Yeah, some article said the first ballots go out Friday in NC?

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NC is the first state in the nation to start early and mail voting! Sept. 6, baby.

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Let him sue. It's only going to bleed him supporters who will likely flock to Kamala Harris.

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Why do you think they will? Everything we've seen suggests they'd be more likely to support Trump.

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Good point.

I believe RFK Jr already bled his most liberal supporters who likely have already gone to Kamala Harris. I don’t know about going to Jill Stein.

Only RFK Jr supporters I can think of who would support Trump are those who have conspiracy theory inclinations like RFK Jr.

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And since that's all he's got...

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One wonders how RFK Jr will fair after the presidential election. He'll still practice as a defense attorney but I don't know if as many people will consider him given his association with Trump.

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He was already a weird kook before this campaign, though.

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Yes indeed.

Although back in the 2000's I never looked at RFK Jr as a weird kook. He was quite effective as an attorney fighting against environmental justice. He exemplified a lot about the Kennedy family and their aspirations.

Back in 2003, when I was just getting on board with John Kerry's presidential campaign, it was still non-controversial for RFK Jr's endorsement to have weight. Kerry of course was an exception as he had a decades-long association with the Kennedys (he after all was on JFK's yacht back in I believe the late 1950's/early 1960's) and Ted Kennedy endorsed his campaign early on in the primary process.

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That said, I will admit that even back in the 2000's, RFK Jr was still picking fights with CNN over biased coverage. Unlike other Kennedys, he relishes attention and gets sensitive when he's being criticized.

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How do you see who liked a post that isn't your own?

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Ha-ha.

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Apologies. Good question. I've yet to figure that out myself. I'm sure it's intuitive. Probably.

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Don't know how to do that while at the site but I get an email that includes the name of the person who liked a comment.

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Isn't that just your comments?

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yes, my bad!

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I don't believe you can. I don't even think I can.

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That's a little odd.

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I keep hearing that women and young people are leading a voter registration surge; anyone have best sources information to check on this??..in the past I usually referenced Michael MacDonald at UF; others?? Thank you

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You'll want to check out Tom Bonier: https://x.com/tbonier/

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Thank you; this is what I was inquiring about

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