Firstly, circumnavigating a ban is a big no no, so don’t do that. Part of the reason the mods moved to here is exactly for that reason, so they have total control over moderation.
You’re not owed an explanation. This is their website, you are a guest and just like any person who causes problems in your own home can be kicked out immediately, they can do that here too. Second, don’t spam, everyone can read you perfectly ok the first time.
Thirdly, your behavior in the September 12th thread was probably why. Don’t attack other members you disagree with in personal ways. Especially, to a long term member. Also, in case you were unaware, this is a pro-Democratic website. If you just posted the data, canned the snide swipes at Democrats and stopped trying to instigate problems you’d have a much better chance of staying a member. As it sits, you’ll probably be rebanned because you openly admit to flaunting the moderators decision to ban you.
By BJed I presume you mean "bojoed", which is Daily Kos terminology for banned, with the skull and crossbones icon Kos uses for such (ex-) members' "mojo."
The board said North Carolina will send out absentee ballots to military and overseas citizens by Sept. 20. Other absentee ballots will be sent by Sept. 24 to voters who requested ballots by mail, including those who use the Visually Impaired Portal (VIP) to request and return their ballots.
LOL thank you. Yes! We do give people a lot of rope. But it’s also important to remember that this is not just a message board but a community. If regulars start feeling like they don’t want to participate here because of a handful of assholes, that’s a real problem that can lead to a death spiral.
2 weeks ago from today, I filled my gas tank here in New Smyrna Beach, FL, paying $2.90\gal; today, filling up again at the same location for my weekend trip, I paid $2.80\gal; how about you all??
Mostly in the $3.00's/3.10's here for regular, with some dipping into the 2's. I filled up for $2.85/gal at an Exxon here in Gaithersburg, MD yesterday because I bought a car wash to go along with it, resulting in a 30 cents discount per gallon.
If anyone wants to roflmao at current Republicans in disarray; please check out the tweet that Laura Loomer just posted to Lindsey Graham(it was possibly sent Wednesday or perhaps Thursday, sorry for not being positive; it's easily found; I saw it on Kos)
So, who had Loomer and MTG having a Twitter flame war accusing eachother of racism and referencing "the Arby's in your pants" on their bingo card for this afternoon? Anyone?
In a nutshell; 'Lindsey, everyone knows that you are gay; and that's OK, no one is going to hold that against you, so it's time for you to come out of your closet; you and I have that in common, we both like men'
Apparently Trump addresses this publicly yesterday on Truth; then later actually deleted the post!!; Lmao; his campaign is in complete disarray; hoping Loomer remains on that plane; apparently, MTG and Lindsey Graham are still posting against Loomer!!.. Lol; hoping this just gets better
Charlie Sykes has a comment that popped up on the front page of substack this morning on Loomer that is excellent. With Trump carting her around like a puppy dog, I can't understand how any thinking Republican or Indie can support that man.
It's far from the worst thing he's done, and I don't see why anyone would expect that to be the last straw for all those dishonest, authoritarian Republican politicians.
It doesn't have to be all of them, just enough at the margins. Unfortunately, for Republican politicians, they have seen what happened to each and every one that challenged their orange God.
I hope it wasn’t. Yes, the comments were on the aggressive side and, I agree, obnoxious. When it was suggested to that individual that they be less abrasive though, they conceded that was a valid point. Unless the desire is for this site to be an echo chamber with no dissent allowed, there was nothing just from yesterday’s posts that was ban-able for a first offense imo. There should certainly be room for discussion about if COVID restrictions went too far, albeit in a much more polite way. But since the comments are still there, unlike those from this thread, I’m thinking it is not the same person.
Don't know how much economic inflation is going to impact the election but I have a doozy...pure greedflation as far as I am concerned. I needed to change the sensor lights on my garage door. Called "garage door company...local and family owned". $329 to replace sensor lights and brackets. I said no thanks. Went to Home Depot! Package of sensor lights for my brand gagage door incl. brackets $39.95. Called by handyman who installed them for $60. $99.95 total cost and "expert" wanted $329...and their guy admitted it would only take 30 mins. That is greedflation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I had a similar thing with the latch to the trunk of my car. It was jammed so I couldn't close the trunk. A Honda dealer quoted $900, but I ordered the part off Amazon for $20, and even doing this in a wheelchair, I had the part installed in under 30 minutes, and it works like new.
I also lost the only key I had with me for the Honda, and the dealership wanted $435, but a local locksmith was out in 45 minutes and charged $160. Great young guy who I've already recommended 3 times.
Don't think that is the case. People in my condo complex have used this company in the past and were totally satisfied. Their work was good and their prices reasonable. It seems like they have jumped on the inflation bandwagon more than anything else.
I'm on Twitter, but I'm not very active there anymore, thanks in part to all the BS that Musk has done with it.
I'm on LinkedIn and IG, but under my actual name (and my IG account is strictly non-political), and I like to stay anonymous (at least as much as possible) here.
I'm not on Bluesky, Threads, or (most importantly) Facebook. In fact, I am quite anti-Facebook and have adamantly refused the entreaties of many different people to join.
It's not too difficult to contact me though, since I check my notifications here and on Discord as frequently as possible.
Josh Hawley is a coward! He is perfectly willing to debate Lucas Kunce – as long as it is not broadcast. In other words, Hawley doesn’t want any the voters of Missouri see him debate Kunce.
I checked on Google and apparently there's just under 500k Haitian-Americans living in Florida. The Trump/Vance rhetoric could further be putting the state into play!!
More than 300,000 Haitian American voters in Florida – and they have a history of voting at significantly higher turnout rates than Floridians at large!
Yes, I do think there will be at some point, if both candidates are Spanish-speakers. I doubt it will become a regular thing within a few decades, though.
I am still waiting for a proper American presidential debate in English. Only Democrats put forward a candidate that was able to speak in complete, well-structured sentences.
If I remember correctly, someone once challenged Ted Cruz to debate him in Spanish. Was it Beto?
Before I saw Avedee's comment I was going to chime in and say I expected it to happen in a congressional race relatively soon but it has already happened.
I wouldn't be surprised if within the next decade we get a Spanish language debate in the democratic primary for a statewide office.
I don’t think so, I’m a first generation Chilean-American, my brother and I are fully bilingual but that was because we moved to Chile for a chunk of our childhood after parents split. My half sister were fully raised in USA same as mi first degree cousins. They speak 0 Spanish, can’t even talk to Spanish speaking grandparents. To stay bilingual parents need a ]n active role in promoting it. My godson/nephew (son of my brother) is fully bilingual but that was an active effort to put him in Spanish pre-school /kindergarten and then when moved to English he spoke Spanish at home and English at school.
I'd say no, and frankly I don't think Canada should really be having French-language PM debates either. The fact is, that in both Canada and the U.S., there's just one dominant language, and that's English. In both countries, in order to have a nationwide career in business, entertainment, or politics, you have to speak English, and (just as importantly) you don't have to speak any other language. Neither Canada nor the U.S. should require or expect its political leaders to speak any language other than English. So I'd be totally against any presidential debates in a language other than English.
I'm surprised someone who lives so close to Quebec is suggesting making Canada monolingual and causing it to break up, which don't kid yourself is what will happen.
Canada needs to make the French Canadians as "assimilationist" (to use the term the OP used) as Spanish speakers here in the U.S.
And if Quebec actually tries to secede, the rest of Canada should do to them what the Union did to the Confederacy. (And then avoid any "Lost Cause" nonsense afterward.)
You really don't give a shit about human lives in Canada, to call for a civil war to try to force the Quebecois to "assimilate," which they will never do. Unbelievable!
Canada's multicultural society is a deep part of their history and civic tradition, it also is a major reason their society is as tolerant as it is. Nor are they only country with protected regional ethnic groups and multiple official languages. This also applies to Switzerland equally well and of course Belgium is basically riven by it's linguistic and ethnic divisions.
Canada's multiple official languages just allow Quebec to discriminate against Anglophones while forcing the people of Ontario and Western Canada to learn a language they will never need to use. Official languages have all the same problems as official religions, and should be eliminated entirely. We need a separation of language and state the same way we need a separation of church and state.
Not in Quebec. Maybe that was the case before the Quiet Revolution, but that hasn't been true for quite some time. It's English monophones who have limited career opportunities, especially outside of Montreal.
Also the French debates are hilarious and often quite informative, even to non-French speakers.
I think you misunderstood. I said to have a *nationwide* career in business, entertainment, or politics, you have to speak English. The nation I was referring to is Canada (Quebec is not a "nation inside of Canada" and never will be). This is because, with the exception of northern New Brunswick, there's practically no Francophone presence in the remainder of Canada outside of Quebec. My statement is inarguably correct.
That makes your point even weirder. You realize that it's not necessary to be fluent in English to have a successful life and career in Quebec, but you still want to enforce it on them out of some misplaced hatred of the Parti Québécois?
You do realize it was the Federalists and the Quebec Liberal Party who came up with the whole language scheme for the province and by extension the country, right? It was a policy designed to keep Quebec Canadian. By making French the language of government, the language of business and commerce, etc, etc, they defused the rising nationalist movement
The point you're trying to make in your first paragraph is completely irrelevant. Quebec isn't a nation. Canada is. In Canada, Anglophones massively outnumber Francophones (by at least 3-1, and possibly more now that Canada has absorbed large numbers of immigrants from non-Francophone countries who generally learn only English upon moving to Canada). And a nation should have a uniform language policy across it.
To further clarify my position, my issue with Quebec and its language policy isn't that most Quebecers speak French. My issue is that, according to the most recent Canadian census, fully half of Quebecers cannot have a conversation in English. That is just completely and utterly appalling, a massive and purposeful failure on the part of the Quebec provincial government that has enormous economic and social consequences for Quebec. And most of the problem could be solved if, as I said above, Quebec is forced to separate language and state - i.e. abolish the OQLF, allow parents to send their kids to whatever language schools they want, repeal the ban on non-French commercial signs, and most importantly, repeal Bill 101, an evil piece of hate legislation against Anglophones. In other words, the provincial government of Quebec needs to stop propping up the French language, accept that their province is surrounded by English speakers on three sides (and on the fourth side by ice), and then let the linguistic chips fall as they may.
And one other point. The rest of Canada is under absolutely no obligation to make any concessions whatsoever to defuse regional nationalist movements, whether in Quebec or anywhere else. The same way that the Union was under no obligation to make concessions to defuse the Confederate nationalist movement. The national political unity of Canada is not up for debate, never will be (unless a clear majority of Canadians want it to split up), and must be defended at all costs.
It amazes me that so many supposedly progressive people have sympathy for the racists and antisemites who make up most of the PQ and Bloc membership.
And if you're not sure how they're racists and antisemites, just look at former Quebec PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau's comment about why his side lost the 1995 secession referendum. He blamed "money and the ethnic vote" - in other words, Jews and anyone who wasn't white and of French descent. If that isn't a horrendously bigoted comment, I don't know what is.
That's not what we're reacting to. (Or at least not me, I should say; I can't speak for Michael or anyone else.) I've been a Francophone for some small period of time now and understand Quebec politics better than some. But you went from (1) Parizeau (who died almost a decade ago) and the sovereigntists to (2) PQ is full of racists to (3) there should never be a French-language debate to (4) there shouldn't be a Spanish-language debate in the U.S. That's quite the series of leaps. And just because some of us don't make those jumps with you doesn't mean we need our liberal credentials questioned.
Which state do you think will be closer in November, Alaska or Texas? I think Alaska could be a surprise. My IG handle is calvin.trini . I hardly use other forms of social media besides Instagram and Facebook.
Alaska. Texas has always been fool's gold, and remains fool's gold to this day.
My Hot Take is that Kansas will be closer than Texas or Alaksa though. Trump will win Alaska by ~7, he'll win Texas by ~8, and I believe Kansas will more dramatically to the left and be won by Trump with a margin of ~6.
I agree that Kansas could finish closer than both of the other states. If Trump wins Texas by 8, he will have exceeding the polling. That's certainly possible, but I'm not as pessimistic about Texas as you are.
Cannot disagree more about TX being fool’s gold. It is undeniably moving left, in part due to the money and effort that has already been put in to the state. I know there are several folks who like to argue it’s a lost cause and waste of money, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anyone provide a reason why we should expect the trend to suddenly stop just prior to it becoming a swing state and remain forever in the Republican column.
Highly doubt that Trump will do 2.5 points better than he did in 2020 either. Against Biden, maybe, but against Harris in a post Dobbs world? I would actually put a decent amount of money on that.
As far as hot takes, mine is that Jasmine Crockett will be a Dem Senator from TX before too long.
Do agree with you on KS being closer than expected though.
Texas is only fool's gold because of voter participation rates(which is the worst in the country); once the Democratic party registers their voters and actually drives them to the polls on a consistent basis, it becomes a toss up
We'll find out in about 51 days. I've heard the same schtick about "Texas is turning blue now!" For a long long time, and I've never been popular for saying that Democrats can't win statewide in Texas. I've yet to be wrong in 18 years I've been having this same conversation in election forums. Chris Bell was never going to beat Rick Perry. O'Rourke was never going to best Cruz. And Harris is never going to beat Trump in Texas.
Saying Texas "is undeniably moving left" is only supported by data of any form if you cherry pick high water mark data from selected races in selected cycles and ignoring everything else, which is absurd. Poingnto TX-Sen 2018 and POTUS 2020 if you wanted, but those are outlier races when compared to what Texas truly is electorally. Texas has voted in a post Dobbs world, in 2022. Below are all of the 2022 statewide results, all post Dobbs:
TX-Gov: R+12 (roughly the same margin as 2010&2006)
TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
The Senate seats tell a different story, the Cruz seat has gone from R+32.7 in 2000 to R+2.7 in 2018. Cornyn’s seat has gone from R+12 in 2002 to R+9.6 in 2020, so we split there.
Gov has gone from +17.8 in 2002 to +11 in 2022. I’ll give you that one, it has become more favorable turf however it has stalled out recently.
As far as the downballot offices, just showing the result in 2022 isn’t really good evidence, as there is no baseline. Additionally, I believe it is generally accepted that those seats tend to lag the top of the ticket, so we would expect them to become competitive after the top of the ticket. But just comparing the post-Bush era, since 2010 Lt Gov has gone from R+27.1 to R+10.3, AG from R+30.4 to R+9.7, CoA from R+25 to R+12. Having trouble finding data for the other races, but they do show a definite trend towards Dems.
I will concede that “undeniably” may have been too strong a word, as there is limited evidence to refute that. However, I think that you are doing a lot more cherry picking of data to try to prove your theory than those who argue that TX is trending our way.
I don’t get it. All of the statewide races you’re using as evidence it’s safe red, moved left from the 2018 blue wave to the 2022 red trickle. Just using how a state votes in 1 cycle without considering the national environment and how it moved compared to other states in previous cycles is how you get Georgia Republicans 100% convinced Georgia is a red state, until it suddenly isn’t.
I agree with you that it’s not likely this cycle, but everything else here is a preconceived narrative in search of data. The truth is that the state has moved left and right in multiple election cycles depending on where you start from, but if you’re using pre-Trump elections to make your case and ignoring the post-Trump biggest electoral shift since Obama then that isn’t exactly the smart thing to do either.
The signs are all around that the state is changing, if you’re willing to accept it. Let’s look at the State House.
2008: 76-74 R
2010: 99-51 R
2012: 95-55 R
2014: 98-52 R
2016: 95-55 R
As you can see, you’re right that nothing much changed, but now, let’s look at the closest elections to today instead of some Obama era Texas far off comparison of a state that no longer exists.
2018: 83-67 R
2020: 83-67 R
2022: 86-64 R
As you can see, the seats Democrats gained since then have been held by the party so no, this isn’t the same as the Obama years.
Ohio was a bellwether state for decades. Until the coalition change took it to red territory, but it didn’t happen in 1 cycle, it happened over many and the signs started to show way earlier than the year it actually flipped. Saying something will always be as it is, while ignoring the most recent election trends is a 1 way ticket to being very wrong at some point. New information should always cause you to reassess your opinions and if it doesn’t, then it’s a narrative you’re trying to create, not doing your best to ascertain the truth.
Does anyone have much to say about KH interview in Philly on Fri? I am seeing in get panned on news sites but I think these are just conservatives looking for something negative to say about her.
I could be wrong, but my impression is that Schwarzenegger has a lot of non-political pull. Many American males look up to him as a model of masculinity – certainly one that is healthier than the Andrew Tates and Josh Hawleys of this world!
Moreover, he is incredibly articulate. For instance, he has the simplest and clearest explanation of gerrymandering I’ve ever heard. And the YouTube videos Arnie has posted dealing with January 6th, racial hate, the Holocaust and extremism are stellar!
So I actually think a clear and well-argued endorsement from Schwarzenegger, broadcast far and wide, is as good as it gets.
.
One more point: Kamala Harris has indicated she might well appoint a Republican to her Cabinet. She could do far worse than putting Schwarzenegger in charge of the Veterans Administration.
Ok, here is another big-name Republican Harris endorsement on my wish list, perhaps a surprising one: Nikki Haley!
That’s right. I want to see her announce that Trump’s and JD Vance’s recent behavior and statements are very un-American, they’re intolerable, that Trump’s debate performance is clear, strong evidence of an alarming cognitive decline – and that she therefore is putting country above party and endorsing Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
(Yes, I realize this scenario is close to Fantasy Fiction.)
https://twitter.com/Pubiono but I don't post anything original, I mostly just retweet stupid things that make me laugh. It's nice to still have an account to follow elections twitter but ideally at some point we all just agree what the replacement is, move there en masse, and let the hell site die.
Firstly, circumnavigating a ban is a big no no, so don’t do that. Part of the reason the mods moved to here is exactly for that reason, so they have total control over moderation.
You’re not owed an explanation. This is their website, you are a guest and just like any person who causes problems in your own home can be kicked out immediately, they can do that here too. Second, don’t spam, everyone can read you perfectly ok the first time.
Thirdly, your behavior in the September 12th thread was probably why. Don’t attack other members you disagree with in personal ways. Especially, to a long term member. Also, in case you were unaware, this is a pro-Democratic website. If you just posted the data, canned the snide swipes at Democrats and stopped trying to instigate problems you’d have a much better chance of staying a member. As it sits, you’ll probably be rebanned because you openly admit to flaunting the moderators decision to ban you.
I've found Nir is quite tolerant of dissent and stupidity, and people who get BJed have a pattern and lack the judgment of when to just STFU.
By BJed I presume you mean "bojoed", which is Daily Kos terminology for banned, with the skull and crossbones icon Kos uses for such (ex-) members' "mojo."
North Carolina Absentee Ballot update:
The board said North Carolina will send out absentee ballots to military and overseas citizens by Sept. 20. Other absentee ballots will be sent by Sept. 24 to voters who requested ballots by mail, including those who use the Visually Impaired Portal (VIP) to request and return their ballots.
LOL thank you. Yes! We do give people a lot of rope. But it’s also important to remember that this is not just a message board but a community. If regulars start feeling like they don’t want to participate here because of a handful of assholes, that’s a real problem that can lead to a death spiral.
Indeed!
2 weeks ago from today, I filled my gas tank here in New Smyrna Beach, FL, paying $2.90\gal; today, filling up again at the same location for my weekend trip, I paid $2.80\gal; how about you all??
It is now under $3 in New Jersey.
Well over $3 in CO. Like $3.60 a gallon here.
The cheapest here in Portland is 2.99 cash. 3.18 at Costco.
Gas, as always, is dirt cheap in the U.S. when compared to Europe and Canada.
I saw $2.99 cash in Concord, MA as well.
right...recently we paid the U.S equivalent of $5.79 in Alberta, Canada...and that was for regular.
Which Portland?
$4.15 at Sam's Club the last time I filled up a week or two ago, but that's California.
prices have not come down at all in CA
That is actually down for us lol
When I filled up a couple days ago here in SW Michigan it was $3.11
Mostly in the $3.00's/3.10's here for regular, with some dipping into the 2's. I filled up for $2.85/gal at an Exxon here in Gaithersburg, MD yesterday because I bought a car wash to go along with it, resulting in a 30 cents discount per gallon.
Filled up today in southeast Michigan at $3.15 a gallon.
2.52 coastal SC. This is after we raised gas taxes a few years ago.
If anyone wants to roflmao at current Republicans in disarray; please check out the tweet that Laura Loomer just posted to Lindsey Graham(it was possibly sent Wednesday or perhaps Thursday, sorry for not being positive; it's easily found; I saw it on Kos)
So, who had Loomer and MTG having a Twitter flame war accusing eachother of racism and referencing "the Arby's in your pants" on their bingo card for this afternoon? Anyone?
Roflmao; have you seen the Loomer to Lindsey one as well??
I did not. What crazy shit did she say to him?
In a nutshell; 'Lindsey, everyone knows that you are gay; and that's OK, no one is going to hold that against you, so it's time for you to come out of your closet; you and I have that in common, we both like men'
Apparently Trump addresses this publicly yesterday on Truth; then later actually deleted the post!!; Lmao; his campaign is in complete disarray; hoping Loomer remains on that plane; apparently, MTG and Lindsey Graham are still posting against Loomer!!.. Lol; hoping this just gets better
Charlie Sykes has a comment that popped up on the front page of substack this morning on Loomer that is excellent. With Trump carting her around like a puppy dog, I can't understand how any thinking Republican or Indie can support that man.
It's far from the worst thing he's done, and I don't see why anyone would expect that to be the last straw for all those dishonest, authoritarian Republican politicians.
It doesn't have to be all of them, just enough at the margins. Unfortunately, for Republican politicians, they have seen what happened to each and every one that challenged their orange God.
Well, I suppose I'll start! You can find me at a few places:
https://x.com/DavidNir/
https://bsky.app/profile/davidnir.bsky.social
https://www.threads.net/@davidsamuelnir
And, of course, on our Discord!
I would have posted but I'm actually on none of those; lol
I am going to upgrade to a paid subscription here(so I guess that will put me on Discord??)
You have chosen... wisely.
If you post that same thing repeatedly, I'm sure you will be blocked if you haven't been already.
I assume this was the antimask guy from yesterday. TBH, I'm surprised he made it through the day. Obnoxious.
I hope it wasn’t. Yes, the comments were on the aggressive side and, I agree, obnoxious. When it was suggested to that individual that they be less abrasive though, they conceded that was a valid point. Unless the desire is for this site to be an echo chamber with no dissent allowed, there was nothing just from yesterday’s posts that was ban-able for a first offense imo. There should certainly be room for discussion about if COVID restrictions went too far, albeit in a much more polite way. But since the comments are still there, unlike those from this thread, I’m thinking it is not the same person.
Yes it sure will!
I will be upgrading after my next poker game👍
I hope you crush your opponents!
Planning on that👍
And then afterwards, I guess I will have to learn this Discord stuff????
Don't know how much economic inflation is going to impact the election but I have a doozy...pure greedflation as far as I am concerned. I needed to change the sensor lights on my garage door. Called "garage door company...local and family owned". $329 to replace sensor lights and brackets. I said no thanks. Went to Home Depot! Package of sensor lights for my brand gagage door incl. brackets $39.95. Called by handyman who installed them for $60. $99.95 total cost and "expert" wanted $329...and their guy admitted it would only take 30 mins. That is greedflation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I had a similar thing with the latch to the trunk of my car. It was jammed so I couldn't close the trunk. A Honda dealer quoted $900, but I ordered the part off Amazon for $20, and even doing this in a wheelchair, I had the part installed in under 30 minutes, and it works like new.
I also lost the only key I had with me for the Honda, and the dealership wanted $435, but a local locksmith was out in 45 minutes and charged $160. Great young guy who I've already recommended 3 times.
Could also have just been that the family business are scammers?
Don't think that is the case. People in my condo complex have used this company in the past and were totally satisfied. Their work was good and their prices reasonable. It seems like they have jumped on the inflation bandwagon more than anything else.
I'm on Twitter, but I'm not very active there anymore, thanks in part to all the BS that Musk has done with it.
I'm on LinkedIn and IG, but under my actual name (and my IG account is strictly non-political), and I like to stay anonymous (at least as much as possible) here.
I'm not on Bluesky, Threads, or (most importantly) Facebook. In fact, I am quite anti-Facebook and have adamantly refused the entreaties of many different people to join.
It's not too difficult to contact me though, since I check my notifications here and on Discord as frequently as possible.
probably a mirage or maybe something is happening. It is terrible to be so close and yet so far … Hawley by 4 in Missouri
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1834718915571732762
I vote for a mirage.
I’ll wait for more polling.
The poll, by GQR, was taken 9/6-9/12. It found that Trump leads Harris by 11 and significantly, that 56 percent of Missouri voters would "probably" or "definitely" support the vote to enshrine abortion access in the state's constitution. https://www.newsweek.com/lucas-kunce-within-striking-distance-josh-hawleyinternal-poll-1953645
Kunce's internal.
Josh Hawley is a coward! He is perfectly willing to debate Lucas Kunce – as long as it is not broadcast. In other words, Hawley doesn’t want any the voters of Missouri see him debate Kunce.
He believes he's ahead. It's not being a "coward"; it's absolutely normal campaign strategy.
I checked on Google and apparently there's just under 500k Haitian-Americans living in Florida. The Trump/Vance rhetoric could further be putting the state into play!!
💙🇺🇲🌊🙏
Maybe. There are a lot of racists in Florida, too, though.
More than 300,000 Haitian American voters in Florida – and they have a history of voting at significantly higher turnout rates than Floridians at large!
Something I was thinking about with the debate this past week:
Do you all think there will ever be a Spanish language debate, like the Canadian PM candidates have a French language debate?
Some reasons why it might someday happen:
- Large, politically competitive Spanish speaking community
- Both parties already run ads in Spanish
- Spanish speaking population is growing
Some reasons why it may not happen
- Spanish speakers in the US are much more assimilationist than the French Canadians are
- There's still an active English only movement on the right that would probably object
- There isn't an expectation of Spanish fluency of most politicians
Yes, I do think there will be at some point, if both candidates are Spanish-speakers. I doubt it will become a regular thing within a few decades, though.
The 2016 FL-26 Curbelo-Garcia race had a Spanish-speaking debate.
https://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2016/10/no-agreement-on-more-debates-between-garcia-curbelo.html
I am still waiting for a proper American presidential debate in English. Only Democrats put forward a candidate that was able to speak in complete, well-structured sentences.
If I remember correctly, someone once challenged Ted Cruz to debate him in Spanish. Was it Beto?
Before I saw Avedee's comment I was going to chime in and say I expected it to happen in a congressional race relatively soon but it has already happened.
I wouldn't be surprised if within the next decade we get a Spanish language debate in the democratic primary for a statewide office.
I don’t think so, I’m a first generation Chilean-American, my brother and I are fully bilingual but that was because we moved to Chile for a chunk of our childhood after parents split. My half sister were fully raised in USA same as mi first degree cousins. They speak 0 Spanish, can’t even talk to Spanish speaking grandparents. To stay bilingual parents need a ]n active role in promoting it. My godson/nephew (son of my brother) is fully bilingual but that was an active effort to put him in Spanish pre-school /kindergarten and then when moved to English he spoke Spanish at home and English at school.
lol, it posted my name oops
I'd say no, and frankly I don't think Canada should really be having French-language PM debates either. The fact is, that in both Canada and the U.S., there's just one dominant language, and that's English. In both countries, in order to have a nationwide career in business, entertainment, or politics, you have to speak English, and (just as importantly) you don't have to speak any other language. Neither Canada nor the U.S. should require or expect its political leaders to speak any language other than English. So I'd be totally against any presidential debates in a language other than English.
I'm surprised someone who lives so close to Quebec is suggesting making Canada monolingual and causing it to break up, which don't kid yourself is what will happen.
Canada needs to make the French Canadians as "assimilationist" (to use the term the OP used) as Spanish speakers here in the U.S.
And if Quebec actually tries to secede, the rest of Canada should do to them what the Union did to the Confederacy. (And then avoid any "Lost Cause" nonsense afterward.)
You really don't give a shit about human lives in Canada, to call for a civil war to try to force the Quebecois to "assimilate," which they will never do. Unbelievable!
Canada's multicultural society is a deep part of their history and civic tradition, it also is a major reason their society is as tolerant as it is. Nor are they only country with protected regional ethnic groups and multiple official languages. This also applies to Switzerland equally well and of course Belgium is basically riven by it's linguistic and ethnic divisions.
Canada's multiple official languages just allow Quebec to discriminate against Anglophones while forcing the people of Ontario and Western Canada to learn a language they will never need to use. Official languages have all the same problems as official religions, and should be eliminated entirely. We need a separation of language and state the same way we need a separation of church and state.
LOL at your overreaction. I half expected it.
If anything, Michael's reaction was restrained. I enjoy your contributions around here and have for years, but your take on this is terrible. Wow.
Not in Quebec. Maybe that was the case before the Quiet Revolution, but that hasn't been true for quite some time. It's English monophones who have limited career opportunities, especially outside of Montreal.
Also the French debates are hilarious and often quite informative, even to non-French speakers.
I think you misunderstood. I said to have a *nationwide* career in business, entertainment, or politics, you have to speak English. The nation I was referring to is Canada (Quebec is not a "nation inside of Canada" and never will be). This is because, with the exception of northern New Brunswick, there's practically no Francophone presence in the remainder of Canada outside of Quebec. My statement is inarguably correct.
That makes your point even weirder. You realize that it's not necessary to be fluent in English to have a successful life and career in Quebec, but you still want to enforce it on them out of some misplaced hatred of the Parti Québécois?
You do realize it was the Federalists and the Quebec Liberal Party who came up with the whole language scheme for the province and by extension the country, right? It was a policy designed to keep Quebec Canadian. By making French the language of government, the language of business and commerce, etc, etc, they defused the rising nationalist movement
The point you're trying to make in your first paragraph is completely irrelevant. Quebec isn't a nation. Canada is. In Canada, Anglophones massively outnumber Francophones (by at least 3-1, and possibly more now that Canada has absorbed large numbers of immigrants from non-Francophone countries who generally learn only English upon moving to Canada). And a nation should have a uniform language policy across it.
To further clarify my position, my issue with Quebec and its language policy isn't that most Quebecers speak French. My issue is that, according to the most recent Canadian census, fully half of Quebecers cannot have a conversation in English. That is just completely and utterly appalling, a massive and purposeful failure on the part of the Quebec provincial government that has enormous economic and social consequences for Quebec. And most of the problem could be solved if, as I said above, Quebec is forced to separate language and state - i.e. abolish the OQLF, allow parents to send their kids to whatever language schools they want, repeal the ban on non-French commercial signs, and most importantly, repeal Bill 101, an evil piece of hate legislation against Anglophones. In other words, the provincial government of Quebec needs to stop propping up the French language, accept that their province is surrounded by English speakers on three sides (and on the fourth side by ice), and then let the linguistic chips fall as they may.
And one other point. The rest of Canada is under absolutely no obligation to make any concessions whatsoever to defuse regional nationalist movements, whether in Quebec or anywhere else. The same way that the Union was under no obligation to make concessions to defuse the Confederate nationalist movement. The national political unity of Canada is not up for debate, never will be (unless a clear majority of Canadians want it to split up), and must be defended at all costs.
I read this three times trying, with respect, to understand your take.
I failed.
It amazes me that so many supposedly progressive people have sympathy for the racists and antisemites who make up most of the PQ and Bloc membership.
And if you're not sure how they're racists and antisemites, just look at former Quebec PQ Premier Jacques Parizeau's comment about why his side lost the 1995 secession referendum. He blamed "money and the ethnic vote" - in other words, Jews and anyone who wasn't white and of French descent. If that isn't a horrendously bigoted comment, I don't know what is.
That's not what we're reacting to. (Or at least not me, I should say; I can't speak for Michael or anyone else.) I've been a Francophone for some small period of time now and understand Quebec politics better than some. But you went from (1) Parizeau (who died almost a decade ago) and the sovereigntists to (2) PQ is full of racists to (3) there should never be a French-language debate to (4) there shouldn't be a Spanish-language debate in the U.S. That's quite the series of leaps. And just because some of us don't make those jumps with you doesn't mean we need our liberal credentials questioned.
Polls
Republican IA has Harris up 2 in Wisconsin.
TIPP and YouGov/Yahoo News both have Harris up 4 nationally.
Insider Advantage is IA?
Yes
Which state do you think will be closer in November, Alaska or Texas? I think Alaska could be a surprise. My IG handle is calvin.trini . I hardly use other forms of social media besides Instagram and Facebook.
Texas. But we'll see, and I give about 15% odds for Alaska being closer.
Alaska. Texas has always been fool's gold, and remains fool's gold to this day.
My Hot Take is that Kansas will be closer than Texas or Alaksa though. Trump will win Alaska by ~7, he'll win Texas by ~8, and I believe Kansas will more dramatically to the left and be won by Trump with a margin of ~6.
I agree that Kansas could finish closer than both of the other states. If Trump wins Texas by 8, he will have exceeding the polling. That's certainly possible, but I'm not as pessimistic about Texas as you are.
I hope that Texas is close enough to allow Allred to pull off an upset.
Cannot disagree more about TX being fool’s gold. It is undeniably moving left, in part due to the money and effort that has already been put in to the state. I know there are several folks who like to argue it’s a lost cause and waste of money, but I don’t believe I’ve ever seen anyone provide a reason why we should expect the trend to suddenly stop just prior to it becoming a swing state and remain forever in the Republican column.
Highly doubt that Trump will do 2.5 points better than he did in 2020 either. Against Biden, maybe, but against Harris in a post Dobbs world? I would actually put a decent amount of money on that.
As far as hot takes, mine is that Jasmine Crockett will be a Dem Senator from TX before too long.
Do agree with you on KS being closer than expected though.
Texas is only fool's gold because of voter participation rates(which is the worst in the country); once the Democratic party registers their voters and actually drives them to the polls on a consistent basis, it becomes a toss up
We'll find out in about 51 days. I've heard the same schtick about "Texas is turning blue now!" For a long long time, and I've never been popular for saying that Democrats can't win statewide in Texas. I've yet to be wrong in 18 years I've been having this same conversation in election forums. Chris Bell was never going to beat Rick Perry. O'Rourke was never going to best Cruz. And Harris is never going to beat Trump in Texas.
Saying Texas "is undeniably moving left" is only supported by data of any form if you cherry pick high water mark data from selected races in selected cycles and ignoring everything else, which is absurd. Poingnto TX-Sen 2018 and POTUS 2020 if you wanted, but those are outlier races when compared to what Texas truly is electorally. Texas has voted in a post Dobbs world, in 2022. Below are all of the 2022 statewide results, all post Dobbs:
TX-Gov: R+12 (roughly the same margin as 2010&2006)
TX-LG: R+11
TX-AG: R+9
TX-PA: R+15
TX-GLO: R+14
TX-CoA: R+12
TX-RRC: R+14
Texas is difficult for now; but it's not impossible(mainly due to what I posted above)
TX Pres is usually what is discussed when it comes to the shift to blue, no? I usually start at 2000 for aesthetic reasons, where TX Pres has gone from R+21.3 to R+5.5. Recognizing that Bush on the ticket may have skewed things, even if you start with 2008 Dems have gained 5.3 points. Point towards bluening.
The Senate seats tell a different story, the Cruz seat has gone from R+32.7 in 2000 to R+2.7 in 2018. Cornyn’s seat has gone from R+12 in 2002 to R+9.6 in 2020, so we split there.
Gov has gone from +17.8 in 2002 to +11 in 2022. I’ll give you that one, it has become more favorable turf however it has stalled out recently.
As far as the downballot offices, just showing the result in 2022 isn’t really good evidence, as there is no baseline. Additionally, I believe it is generally accepted that those seats tend to lag the top of the ticket, so we would expect them to become competitive after the top of the ticket. But just comparing the post-Bush era, since 2010 Lt Gov has gone from R+27.1 to R+10.3, AG from R+30.4 to R+9.7, CoA from R+25 to R+12. Having trouble finding data for the other races, but they do show a definite trend towards Dems.
I will concede that “undeniably” may have been too strong a word, as there is limited evidence to refute that. However, I think that you are doing a lot more cherry picking of data to try to prove your theory than those who argue that TX is trending our way.
I don’t get it. All of the statewide races you’re using as evidence it’s safe red, moved left from the 2018 blue wave to the 2022 red trickle. Just using how a state votes in 1 cycle without considering the national environment and how it moved compared to other states in previous cycles is how you get Georgia Republicans 100% convinced Georgia is a red state, until it suddenly isn’t.
I agree with you that it’s not likely this cycle, but everything else here is a preconceived narrative in search of data. The truth is that the state has moved left and right in multiple election cycles depending on where you start from, but if you’re using pre-Trump elections to make your case and ignoring the post-Trump biggest electoral shift since Obama then that isn’t exactly the smart thing to do either.
The signs are all around that the state is changing, if you’re willing to accept it. Let’s look at the State House.
2008: 76-74 R
2010: 99-51 R
2012: 95-55 R
2014: 98-52 R
2016: 95-55 R
As you can see, you’re right that nothing much changed, but now, let’s look at the closest elections to today instead of some Obama era Texas far off comparison of a state that no longer exists.
2018: 83-67 R
2020: 83-67 R
2022: 86-64 R
As you can see, the seats Democrats gained since then have been held by the party so no, this isn’t the same as the Obama years.
Ohio was a bellwether state for decades. Until the coalition change took it to red territory, but it didn’t happen in 1 cycle, it happened over many and the signs started to show way earlier than the year it actually flipped. Saying something will always be as it is, while ignoring the most recent election trends is a 1 way ticket to being very wrong at some point. New information should always cause you to reassess your opinions and if it doesn’t, then it’s a narrative you’re trying to create, not doing your best to ascertain the truth.
Along the lines of what OG said, at least wait until the 2024 election results before claiming that Texas is "undeniably moving left."
Especially the Cruz margins
Agree, as stated above. Undeniably is too strong a word, but the preponderance of evidence does show leftward trends.
Does anyone have much to say about KH interview in Philly on Fri? I am seeing in get panned on news sites but I think these are just conservatives looking for something negative to say about her.
If the mainstream media isn’t talking about it, then it probably doesn’t matter
It matters locally in the Philly area.
I'm not really interested in what conservatives have to say about it. Since you raised this in good faith of course, what did you think?
just wondering if it is being used as another attack point agains VP Harris...but then, of course, I guess everything is being used as an attack point
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Lmao; I actually don't even know what a few of these are🙃
So with the talk among "insiders" that allegedly a big name Republican will be endorsing Kamala in the coming weeks, who are we expecting?
Is Dubya popular enough in Texas that it may move the needle there enough to want his endorsement?
I feel like Mitt Romney is the more obvious answer, but no one is saying that.
Chris Christie is another person it could be.
I would agree. I just don't know if either would make a difference. I feel like Romney Republicans may already be supporting her at this point.
Christie might make a good surrogate though.
I think Romney could have an impact on Mormon voters, and there are a decent number in Arizona.
True. Nevada too.
My comment would be: is C Christie "a big name Republican"?
How about Laura Bush?
I don't think Laura Bush would be that big compared to Dick Cheney.
Well... he's big. (Rimshot)
Melania Trump?
Lmao
Romney would be good.
Arnold Schwarzenegger would be my No.1 choice for a big-name Republican endorsing Kamala Harris. I hope he does!
I don't think Schwarzenegger has much pull. He's been anti Trump for years.
Romney could help amongst Mormons in AZ and NV, and is a much bigger deal IMHO
I could be wrong, but my impression is that Schwarzenegger has a lot of non-political pull. Many American males look up to him as a model of masculinity – certainly one that is healthier than the Andrew Tates and Josh Hawleys of this world!
Moreover, he is incredibly articulate. For instance, he has the simplest and clearest explanation of gerrymandering I’ve ever heard. And the YouTube videos Arnie has posted dealing with January 6th, racial hate, the Holocaust and extremism are stellar!
So I actually think a clear and well-argued endorsement from Schwarzenegger, broadcast far and wide, is as good as it gets.
.
One more point: Kamala Harris has indicated she might well appoint a Republican to her Cabinet. She could do far worse than putting Schwarzenegger in charge of the Veterans Administration.
Does Schwarzenegger have expertise in veterans' affairs? Otherwise, I take your points, but an endorsement from him would be entirely unsurprising.
That would be a dog-bites-man story. Didn't Schwarzenegger endorse Hillary Clinton and Biden in the last 2 elections?
I thought Arnie endorsed John Kasich in 2016. And I think last year he made some friendly noises about Joe Manchin.
Kasich would have been a primary endorsement.
Ok, here is another big-name Republican Harris endorsement on my wish list, perhaps a surprising one: Nikki Haley!
That’s right. I want to see her announce that Trump’s and JD Vance’s recent behavior and statements are very un-American, they’re intolerable, that Trump’s debate performance is clear, strong evidence of an alarming cognitive decline – and that she therefore is putting country above party and endorsing Kamala Harris and Tim Walz.
(Yes, I realize this scenario is close to Fantasy Fiction.)
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