Here's my question: What are these predictions based on?
When I make my predictions (which hasn't happened yet), they'll be based on four factors: 1) Fundamentals/previous election results (50%), polls (30%), fundraising (10%), and ground game (10%). How would you rate the importance of those factors, and are you taking into account any others besides those?
Here's my question: What are these predictions based on?
When I make my predictions (which hasn't happened yet), they'll be based on four factors: 1) Fundamentals/previous election results (50%), polls (30%), fundraising (10%), and ground game (10%). How would you rate the importance of those factors, and are you taking into account any others besides those?
what do you think they are based on?consider the source: as much negativity and doom/gloom as possible. trmp will lose approx 2% of his vote and KH will gain approx 1% from Biden's vote...do the math!! ;-)
I may disagree with Mark27's predictions, but I still think he's a reasonable person deserving of having a non-snarky conversation with. Just because you think Harris will win doesn't mean it's OK to be irrationally overconfident without providing any evidence.
Mark is predicting a calamity, but he's doing it with detail and specifics. Pretty much all you seem to do here is to post cheerleading backed by nothing, which doesn't really help advance discussion, in my opinion. In terms of content, "Kamala is gonna win!!!" is not actually more valuable than "Kamala is gonna lose!!!", except that the latter is a troll on a Democratic site.
The big black hole this cycle is which polls to trust. National polls? Swing state? Or subgroup overweights, like the Harvard Youth Poll or the Howard U poll of Black voters
If not for polls, I'd think Harris was on the way to a 7-8 point victory in Michigan, thanks to Dems' strong performance there in 2022 despite low inner-city and African-American turnout. Taking polls into account, I think she wins Michigan by 5 (compared with Biden's 3-point win there).
This is sort of why I think we should be OK here, at least in my happier moments. We had bad turnout in 2020. For example, Detroit was something like 20% behind Michigan as a whole, 51% vs over 70%. And we still won.
I don't have it parsed out as deliberately as you but fundamentals/previous election results are definitely at the top of the list. Polls are of declining significance because I think they're broken and fail to pick up on electoral dynamism. Obviously, demographic make-up looms large, which is why I think Harris has a decent chance at Georgia if she can hold on to most of the 2020 black vote. The other element I include that most scoff at is anecdotes. I watch a lot of man-on-the-street coverage and am stunned by how many random young black men the interviewers (not just Fox) find who support Trump. I don't shrug that stuff off lightly.
I don't shrug off any true opinions of anyone; I just feel they have zero predictive value(I do share your skepticism of current polling and actually believe that they are shaded this cycle towards Trump, not Harris, because of the misses in both 2016 and 2020)
Like I posted up thread,ЁЯСЖ I'm confident in 48\50 states; the final 2 (probably not surprising) are AZ and NC; I expect sometime next week I'll pull the trigger on a final prediction
Polls seem extra sensitive these days to the weighting assumptions of the pollsters. Now, I donтАЩt think thatтАЩs something out of malice or incompetence, but itтАЩs something to be considered
ItтАЩs just like CNN finding old white Republicans who have flipped for Harris. Good for them, but I donтАЩt think theyтАЩre representative of their demographic just because CNN put them on tv
Here's my question: What are these predictions based on?
When I make my predictions (which hasn't happened yet), they'll be based on four factors: 1) Fundamentals/previous election results (50%), polls (30%), fundraising (10%), and ground game (10%). How would you rate the importance of those factors, and are you taking into account any others besides those?
what do you think they are based on?consider the source: as much negativity and doom/gloom as possible. trmp will lose approx 2% of his vote and KH will gain approx 1% from Biden's vote...do the math!! ;-)
I may disagree with Mark27's predictions, but I still think he's a reasonable person deserving of having a non-snarky conversation with. Just because you think Harris will win doesn't mean it's OK to be irrationally overconfident without providing any evidence.
Mark is predicting a calamity, but he's doing it with detail and specifics. Pretty much all you seem to do here is to post cheerleading backed by nothing, which doesn't really help advance discussion, in my opinion. In terms of content, "Kamala is gonna win!!!" is not actually more valuable than "Kamala is gonna lose!!!", except that the latter is a troll on a Democratic site.
The big black hole this cycle is which polls to trust. National polls? Swing state? Or subgroup overweights, like the Harvard Youth Poll or the Howard U poll of Black voters
If not for polls, I'd think Harris was on the way to a 7-8 point victory in Michigan, thanks to Dems' strong performance there in 2022 despite low inner-city and African-American turnout. Taking polls into account, I think she wins Michigan by 5 (compared with Biden's 3-point win there).
ThatтАЩs fair
This is sort of why I think we should be OK here, at least in my happier moments. We had bad turnout in 2020. For example, Detroit was something like 20% behind Michigan as a whole, 51% vs over 70%. And we still won.
The considerable polling error against Democrats in Michigan in 2022 definitely can't be underestimated.
I don't have it parsed out as deliberately as you but fundamentals/previous election results are definitely at the top of the list. Polls are of declining significance because I think they're broken and fail to pick up on electoral dynamism. Obviously, demographic make-up looms large, which is why I think Harris has a decent chance at Georgia if she can hold on to most of the 2020 black vote. The other element I include that most scoff at is anecdotes. I watch a lot of man-on-the-street coverage and am stunned by how many random young black men the interviewers (not just Fox) find who support Trump. I don't shrug that stuff off lightly.
I don't shrug off any true opinions of anyone; I just feel they have zero predictive value(I do share your skepticism of current polling and actually believe that they are shaded this cycle towards Trump, not Harris, because of the misses in both 2016 and 2020)
That's a real possibility. About the only thing that gives me hope is that that was mostly true in 2022.
Like I posted up thread,ЁЯСЖ I'm confident in 48\50 states; the final 2 (probably not surprising) are AZ and NC; I expect sometime next week I'll pull the trigger on a final prediction
AZ in particular I feel like weтАЩre flying blind in
Agreed
I'm confident in 45/50. I'm pretty sure Harris wins MI and PA. I think she'll win NV, WI, and GA but I'm not confident.
Have you made up your mind on AZ and NC?
Nope. I think AZ is a bit more likely because Biden won it in 2020, but they're both pure tossups for me atm.
Yup; we are both thinking alike
The one lingering thought I have is the Mark Robinson situation might play to the slimmest of margins for Harris
I keep thinking that IтАЩd consider AZ more promising than NC purely due to 2020/22
Polls seem extra sensitive these days to the weighting assumptions of the pollsters. Now, I donтАЩt think thatтАЩs something out of malice or incompetence, but itтАЩs something to be considered
The interviewers are *looking* for them and will amplify them instantaneously. That doesn't make them numerous.
ItтАЩs just like CNN finding old white Republicans who have flipped for Harris. Good for them, but I donтАЩt think theyтАЩre representative of their demographic just because CNN put them on tv
The trick thing in GA, is exactly whether she can hold on the 2020 Black voters.