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I don't shrug off any true opinions of anyone; I just feel they have zero predictive value(I do share your skepticism of current polling and actually believe that they are shaded this cycle towards Trump, not Harris, because of the misses in both 2016 and 2020)

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That's a real possibility. About the only thing that gives me hope is that that was mostly true in 2022.

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Like I posted up thread,ЁЯСЖ I'm confident in 48\50 states; the final 2 (probably not surprising) are AZ and NC; I expect sometime next week I'll pull the trigger on a final prediction

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AZ in particular I feel like weтАЩre flying blind in

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Agreed

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I'm confident in 45/50. I'm pretty sure Harris wins MI and PA. I think she'll win NV, WI, and GA but I'm not confident.

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Have you made up your mind on AZ and NC?

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Nope. I think AZ is a bit more likely because Biden won it in 2020, but they're both pure tossups for me atm.

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Yup; we are both thinking alike

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The one lingering thought I have is the Mark Robinson situation might play to the slimmest of margins for Harris

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I keep thinking that IтАЩd consider AZ more promising than NC purely due to 2020/22

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