Baked in to my predictions is that polling is oversampling educated professionals and undersampling working-class men, including working-class men of color. I think the real wild card this year will be a substantial shift to Trump among black and Hispanic men, and that polling models are missing this. Again, hope I'm wrong.
Baked in to my predictions is that polling is oversampling educated professionals and undersampling working-class men, including working-class men of color. I think the real wild card this year will be a substantial shift to Trump among black and Hispanic men, and that polling models are missing this. Again, hope I'm wrong.
We cannot say in advance that he's "wrong." That should be obvious, and I find it at least a little dumb to have to spell that out on a campaigns and elections site. Of course, you could very well be joking, but we don't hear your voice or see your facial expression, so not getting the joke is on you.
Yeah that could be. I'm not anticipating the polls be as far off as they were in 2020 but if my suspicion about significant Trump growth in the nonwhite vote plays out, that could be the source of a different kind of polling fail.
Baked in to my predictions is that polling is oversampling educated professionals and undersampling working-class men, including working-class men of color. I think the real wild card this year will be a substantial shift to Trump among black and Hispanic men, and that polling models are missing this. Again, hope I'm wrong.
You are wrong. Now you are moving to hypotheticals
We cannot say in advance that he's "wrong." That should be obvious, and I find it at least a little dumb to have to spell that out on a campaigns and elections site. Of course, you could very well be joking, but we don't hear your voice or see your facial expression, so not getting the joke is on you.
Polling models seem to be much more R+ this cycle than 2020, though? That seems like an effort to correct for their misses. At least to me.
Yeah that could be. I'm not anticipating the polls be as far off as they were in 2020 but if my suspicion about significant Trump growth in the nonwhite vote plays out, that could be the source of a different kind of polling fail.
IтАЩm skeptical, but at least itтАЩs a theory youтАЩve spelled out sound reasoning on