She doesn't bring personal baggage but she carries the baton from an unpopular administration where voters are convinced their lives suck. If it wasn't for the Dobbs ruling, this election would probably be a Trump landslide.
All of those things are true, but history tends to rhyme. Has any Presidential nominee from the incumbent party been elected when the incumbent President has an approval rating as low as Biden's?
I don’t know off the top of my head, but the economy isn’t in a severe recession. There’s no massive war going on like Vietnam. No massive social unrest. No division in the Democratic Party as there was in 2016. No pandemic either.
The conditions that would lead to Harris losing aren’t there. That’s why the 13 Keys favor her—and not Trump.
Fundamentally I don’t see what support Trump has gained since 2020. I don’t see many Trump/Biden/Trump voters out there.
I’m not saying Harris is guaranteed to win, but I’d rather be her than Trump.
If I was to look at the economic fundamentals without context, I'd agree with you that conditions seem pretty impressive. But perception is reality and a clear majority of people think the economy is in terrible shape. In many ways, they're delusional, particularly those angry about grocery prices or especially gas prices....
But it's the big-ticket items where inflation hits really hard. You'd be hard-pressed to get even the most minor car repair done for less than a $1,000 nowadays. That's a spoiled Christmas for most families. I'm driving around with a dislodged fog light right now because it was a $375 fix to replace it. Any sort of furnace or plumbing repairs in the home is budget-busting beyond comprehension. My parents have had a whole bunch of things break down this past year and it's been thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars of repair and replacement work....the kind of things that would completely break the majority of people if they faced the same timeline of misfortune. Of course, the irony is that a big part of what's driving expenses is that the market price for labor for the very blue-collar workers who hate Biden and Harris to their core has gone up so much during the Biden-Harris years.
And then, there's the most jaw-dropping source of runaway expense that is our broken health care system. And Donald Trump is gonna replace this broken health care system with "something really terrific"!
Perception may be reality, but this isn't 1932, 1980, 1992, or 2008, where there were severe economic problems. I'm not saying the economy is necessarily "great", but growth is stable and inflation has slowed down.
The 13 Keys favor Harris. I'd rather be her than Trump. That doesn't mean Trump won't win, but the conditions that would lead to Harris losing just aren't there right now.
Your arguments are valid. However, Democrats also didn't face the 2022 midterms with a similar election dynamic as in 2010 and 2014.
The factors facing Democrats in 2024 vs. 2022 aren't exactly new unless we're talking about voters being more economically pinched. I can say out of experience in shopping at stores like Macy's that customers are in fact being cost-conscious.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and how it intends to manage the interest rates in the coming months. The recent rate cut was a good thing but it still takes time for these rate cuts to really provide the relief that voters want.
Also, at the beginning of 2023 the regional bank crisis that Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, etc. had faced was a drop in the puddle in the economy compared to the tidal wave that 2008 was. Most voters have moved on from that.
And the reason labor costs have spiked so much is because fewer and fewer of the WWC who used to go into those professions actually do. Rust belt young white males can barely hold down a job and contractors have been saying for years how hard it is to find reliable work.
Truman's (re)election, I believe, came with similar approvals, although there was far less polling at the time to confirm that. Of course, the inverse always hasn't held true (1960, 2000, 2016, debatably 1976), presidents before Obama didn't operate with approvals hovering around nil from the opposing party by default, and Biden's the first president since the advent of polling to generate significant polling disapproval on largely ideological grounds from their own end of the spectrum.
I respectfully don’t see that. This isn’t 2016 and Harris isn’t Hillary. Harris doesn’t bring the same baggage Hillary brought to the table.
She doesn't bring personal baggage but she carries the baton from an unpopular administration where voters are convinced their lives suck. If it wasn't for the Dobbs ruling, this election would probably be a Trump landslide.
This isn’t 1980 and Trump isn’t Ronald Reagan. Harris isn’t Jimmy Carter. There’s no world where Trump wins in a landslide even without Dobbs.
That’s the dumbest statement I’ve seen in a while.
All of those things are true, but history tends to rhyme. Has any Presidential nominee from the incumbent party been elected when the incumbent President has an approval rating as low as Biden's?
I don’t know off the top of my head, but the economy isn’t in a severe recession. There’s no massive war going on like Vietnam. No massive social unrest. No division in the Democratic Party as there was in 2016. No pandemic either.
The conditions that would lead to Harris losing aren’t there. That’s why the 13 Keys favor her—and not Trump.
Fundamentally I don’t see what support Trump has gained since 2020. I don’t see many Trump/Biden/Trump voters out there.
I’m not saying Harris is guaranteed to win, but I’d rather be her than Trump.
If I was to look at the economic fundamentals without context, I'd agree with you that conditions seem pretty impressive. But perception is reality and a clear majority of people think the economy is in terrible shape. In many ways, they're delusional, particularly those angry about grocery prices or especially gas prices....
But it's the big-ticket items where inflation hits really hard. You'd be hard-pressed to get even the most minor car repair done for less than a $1,000 nowadays. That's a spoiled Christmas for most families. I'm driving around with a dislodged fog light right now because it was a $375 fix to replace it. Any sort of furnace or plumbing repairs in the home is budget-busting beyond comprehension. My parents have had a whole bunch of things break down this past year and it's been thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars of repair and replacement work....the kind of things that would completely break the majority of people if they faced the same timeline of misfortune. Of course, the irony is that a big part of what's driving expenses is that the market price for labor for the very blue-collar workers who hate Biden and Harris to their core has gone up so much during the Biden-Harris years.
And then, there's the most jaw-dropping source of runaway expense that is our broken health care system. And Donald Trump is gonna replace this broken health care system with "something really terrific"!
Perception may be reality, but this isn't 1932, 1980, 1992, or 2008, where there were severe economic problems. I'm not saying the economy is necessarily "great", but growth is stable and inflation has slowed down.
The 13 Keys favor Harris. I'd rather be her than Trump. That doesn't mean Trump won't win, but the conditions that would lead to Harris losing just aren't there right now.
Your arguments are valid. However, Democrats also didn't face the 2022 midterms with a similar election dynamic as in 2010 and 2014.
The factors facing Democrats in 2024 vs. 2022 aren't exactly new unless we're talking about voters being more economically pinched. I can say out of experience in shopping at stores like Macy's that customers are in fact being cost-conscious.
All eyes are on the Federal Reserve and how it intends to manage the interest rates in the coming months. The recent rate cut was a good thing but it still takes time for these rate cuts to really provide the relief that voters want.
Also, at the beginning of 2023 the regional bank crisis that Silicon Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, etc. had faced was a drop in the puddle in the economy compared to the tidal wave that 2008 was. Most voters have moved on from that.
And the reason labor costs have spiked so much is because fewer and fewer of the WWC who used to go into those professions actually do. Rust belt young white males can barely hold down a job and contractors have been saying for years how hard it is to find reliable work.
Truman's (re)election, I believe, came with similar approvals, although there was far less polling at the time to confirm that. Of course, the inverse always hasn't held true (1960, 2000, 2016, debatably 1976), presidents before Obama didn't operate with approvals hovering around nil from the opposing party by default, and Biden's the first president since the advent of polling to generate significant polling disapproval on largely ideological grounds from their own end of the spectrum.