1) How will the following large Pennsylvania counties vote: Erie, Beaver, Allegheny, Centre, Lackawanna, Northampton, Cumberland, Lancaster, Montgomery, Bucks
2) Which county in America will have the largest swing, in either direction, from 2020 to 2024?
3) Who will be the House incumbent who loses by the widest margin?
1) Trump and McCormick get Erie, Beaver, Cumberland, and Lancaster. Harris and Casey get Centre, Allegheny, Montgomery, and Bucks. Split for Lackawanna and Northampton which go Trump-Casey.
2) Largest swing will be Maverick County, Texas, to Trump.
3) No idea which races have only minor-party challengers versus Republicans or Democrats.
Like I said yesterday, we will find out that a significant # of EV republicans are those who are defecting and voting for KH or someone else. I liked reading the anecdote on DK about the lady who wrote in Jesus! As for what race: CA house races Steel v. Tran, Min v. Baugh and Calvert v. Rollins...long past time for those vile Rs to be gone!!
Calvert's not looking good for re-election considering his new House district is a Lean Red swing district. He also as a Congressman doesn't have particularly good charisma and is low profile in comparison to most House Republicans.
The district has been rated as Lean GOP for some time but the demographics in the district are not overwhelmingly white. In fact, there are sizable non-white voter demographics that represent problems for Calvert's ability to even hold on to his seat.
Calvert’s old majority-minority district’s Solid R status was, at the end, a self-fulfilling prophecy based on a failure of the party to attempt to seriously challenge him, and a demoralized Dem electorate with no hope. The redistricting helped, but primarily by making it no longer unthinkable that he might lose.
Actually, if you look at the old CA-42 district that Calvert occupied, it still had sizable non-white demographics. The problem was that the DSCC overlooked this and didn't really pursue the district amid these facts. White voters were not an overwhelming majority. Could be that Calvert to these non-white voters was not considered a lightning rod enough to be voted out.
That said, the redistricting for sure closed the margins in the new CA-41 district so that Calvert is more vulnerable now.
Maybe the reason polls are tightening a bit is that Dems are a higher share of the early vote (60-40 by most surveys) so they have less incentive to answer/respond to polls? That’s all I’ve got..
I filled up my gas tank for my weekend trip in New Smyrna Beach, Florida; I paid $2.68\gallon; which is the lowest price I can remember paying since covid-19; what are the gas pices where you are? (Please include your location; thanks);have a great weekend everyone
You too. Shockingly, 4.22 in Santa Clarita, CA today. Shocking because it's dropped like a stone in recent weeks, because there's always some excuse in CA to keep gas prices absurdly high ("switching to winter/summer blend"; refinery X is shut down for Y reason, etc.), and also shocking because I believe gas prices are highly manipulated by bad faith actors . . . and now would seem to be their hour with close enough to a Democratic incumbent running for re-election *and* Middle East strife upon which to lay the blame. Maybe my puuuuuurely hypothetical bad faith actors don't want more Trump any more than quite a significant number of high-profile Republicans do.
Outside of Charleston, SC. Regular is $2.56. I use diesel though. It's at $3.20 which is lower than it has been recently. I drive so little though that I only fill up every other month or so. Last time was late summer and it was ~$3.50 back then.
I have an instinctive feeling that FL-13 will be a closer race than back in 2022. Whether that means Luna or her Democratic challenger Whitney Fox will win I don't know.
Pinellas outside of St Pete downtown is relatively downscale except the barrier islands. More like a giant exurb. And very old. Probably second only to the two SWFL seats
I almost always prefer to drop my final predictions before the last minute as I think it's cheating to wait for election eve.
Avert your gaze if you don't want to read a sub-optimal take....
The nonbattlegrounds....
Alabama--Trump by 29 (+4 from 2020)
Alaska--Trump by 9 (-1 from 2020)
Arkansas--Trump by 29 (+3 from 2020)
California--Harris by 25 (-4 from 2020)
Colorado--Harris by 12 (-1 from 2020)
Connecticut--Harris by 20 (Same as 2020)
Delaware--Harris by 16 (-3 from 2020)
District of Columbia--Harris by 84 (-3 from 2020)
Florida--Trump by 11 (+8 from 2020)
Hawaii--Harris by 28 (-1 from 2020)
Idaho--Trump by 32 (+2 from 2020)
Illinois--Harris by 15 (-2 from 2020)
Indiana--Trump by 19 (+3 from 2020)
Iowa--Trump by 12 (+4 from 2020)
Kansas--Trump by 13 (-2 from 2020)
Kentucky--Trump by 28 (+2 from 2020)
Louisiana--Trump by 22 (+4 from 2020)
Maine--Harris by 9 (Same as 2020)
Maine CD 2--Trump by 8
Maryland--Harris by 33 (Same as 2020)
Massachusetts--Harris by 32 (-1 from 2020)
Minnesota--Harris by 4 (-3 from 2020)
Mississippi--Trump by 20 (-4 from 2020)
Missouri--Trump by 18 (+3 from 2020)
Montana--Trump by 21 (+5 from 2020)
Nebraska--Trump by 20 (+1 from 2020)
New Hampshire--Harris by 8 (+1 from 2020)
New Jersey--Harris by 13 (-3 from 2020)
New Mexico--Harris by 7 (-4 from 2020)
New York--Harris by 16 (-7 from 2020)
North Dakota--Trump by 37 (+4 from 2020)
Ohio--Trump by 12 (+4 from 2020)
Oklahoma--Trump by 36 (+3 from 2020)
Oregon--Harris by 16 (Same as 2020)
Rhode Island--Harris by 18 (-2 from 2020)
South Carolina--Trump by 13 (+1 from 2020)
South Dakota--Trump by 29 (+3 from 2020)
Tennessee--Trump by 24 (+1 from 2020)
Texas--Trump by 8 (+2 from 2020)
Utah--Trump by 24 (+4 from 2020)
Vermont--Harris by 34 (-1 from 2020)
Virginia--Harris by 11 (+1 from 2020)
Washington--Harris by 18 (-1 from 2020)
West Virginia--Trump by 41 (+2 from 2020)
Wyoming--Trump by 44 (+1 from 2020)
Rust Belt Battlegrounds
Michigan--Keep your eye on Saginaw County as the bellwether. Biden eked out a win four years ago. This year, if Trump is winning by 5+ points, it's indicative of working-class collapse severe enough that the votes from the managerial class in upscale outer suburbs won't matter. Trump by 1 (+4 from 2020)
Pennsylvania--Keep your eye on Erie County as the bellwether. Biden eked out a win four years ago. This year, if Trump is winning by 5+ points, it's indicative of working-class collapse severe enough that the votes from the managerial class in upscale outer suburbs won't matter. Trump by 1 (+2 from 2020)
Wisconsin--Keep your eye on Chippewa County. It's not a bellwether for the state as Trump won it by 20 points four years ago. But it is a bellwether for the white working-class vote. If Trump is winning it by 25+ points this year, it's indicative of working-class collapse severe enough that the votes from the managerial class in upscale outer suburbs won't matter. Trump by 2 (+3 from 2020)
Sun Belt Battlegrounds
Georgia--Different calculus given the demographics. It's possible that the managerial class could swing the election to Harris here. But given that she has zero margin for error with the Democratic base in Georgia, any sort of shift to Trump or modest reduction in turnout among black voters would make the math daunting for upscale whites to save her here either. But I will say I like her chances better in Georgia than I do in Pennsylvania right now...or certainly Wisconsin. Trump by 1. (+1.5 from 2020)
Arizona--The trend has been diminishing Democratic margins among Hispanic voters and if that trend continues, nowhere will it be felt more than in Arizona. Once again, if Democratic success depends upon the managerial class of Scottsdale trending their way more quickly than the working class of south Phoenix trends against them, I don't love their chances. Trump by 2. (+3 from 2020)
Nevada--Early voting reports haven't been encouraging and demographic trends look problematic for Democrats, but given that the party seems to find a way to win here almost every cycle, I'll maintain that Harris ekes out this single battleground state victory. Harris by 1. (-1 from 2020)
North Carolina--Still seems like a pipe dream. If Biden couldn't win in a D+4 electorate, I suspect Harris will not only fail to win but backslide to Hillary's numbers in an electorate this year that seems likely to be quite a bit redder than the 2020 electorate. Trump by 3. (+2 from 2020)
Other Battleground
Nebraska CD-2--All indications point to a comfortable Harris win and I have no reason to doubt it. Harris by 7.
Final Thoughts
These results actually reflect a decidedly more optimistic take than my actual feelings are, especially now with a closing message that I think will be disastrous, failing to inspire soft base voters who are looking for deliverables from even bothering to vote. The implications are horrifying at seemingly infinite levels and there will be no shortage of unpacking how we got to this point come November 6. But regarding November 5, I'm predicting 306 electoral votes for Trump and 232 for Harris. Not only do I think Trump will win the popular vote, I think he has an excellent chance of cresting 50%.
I'd love nothing more than to be way off. It all boils down to two things.....
1) Does the cross-racial working-class vote get just a little bit worse for Harris compared to Biden....or much worse?
And 2) Just how many upscale suburban voters that Biden didn't already pick off four years ago still exist to be taken out of the GOP column? My feeling is.....far fewer than what the Harris campaign is counting on.
I respect your opinion, though I'm more optimistic, in part because I think 2) goes both ways. Just how many working-class voters that Trump didn't pick off in 2016/2020 still exist to be taken out of the Democratic column? The only large group of such voters is the non-white group, and large-sample polls don't show a ton of slippage there. Certainly not enough for a 5-plus-point swing nationwide.
#2. Not sure. I guess they would be already places we see a lot of bluing.
And on the most important #3. Trump gain in downscale minority voters? So far I doubt it. But it does seem the downscale minority turnout may suffer. It is quite posible Harris gets a slightly better % than 2020, and a whole lot less votes. That could be the most damaging dynamic.
Your argument #2 is the biggest criticism I have of your predictions because that is not at all what it boils down to. You're completely ignoring women of all economic classes who will either be new voters or shift from Trump to Harris as well as specifically younger women voters who will strongly support Harris. It seems that you're focusing on very small portions of the electorate where Trump may do better based on anecdotes, while just waving a way a huge part of the electorate where Harris will most likely do better based on logic and the limited data we have.
I'm hoping there's an income/education breakdown in the exit polls on the salience of the reproductive rights issue, as well as the size of the gender gap amongst college and noncollege voters. My suspicion is reproductive rights is vastly, vastly more salient with upscale, educated women than with downscale, noncollege women.....and that there's ultimately a bigger gulf between college women and noncollege women than there is between noncollege women and noncollege men. Certainly the county and precinct level data from 2022 points to reproductive rights concerns skewing heavily upscale.
The degree to which we're two different countries talking past each other in the mid-2020s is perfectly distilled in the two issues that make up 90% of the partisan ads this cycle. Reproductive rights seems to be extremely salient among upscale and college voters but doesn't appear to move the needle very much among downscale voters. And immigration and the border is spectacularly salient among downscale, noncollege voters while upscale, college voters are scratching their chin wondering what the big deal is.
What specific data from 2022 are you referring to? That’s a very interesting theory and I’ll be interested to see the numbers as well, both from 2022 and after this election. I can see where downscale voters might be more susceptible to the idea that immigration directly impacts them and is the cause of their concerns even though for the vast majority of them it’s complete rubbish. However, at the same time those folks are the ones who are most impacted by abortion bans. Upscale and college degree women can travel to get the health care they need. Abortion bans are (for the most part) an inconvenience. It’s the folks who don’t have the means to fly or drive to a neighboring state for the weekend who are facing the most severe consequences. That being said, I don’t think the effect of being declared a second class citizen will differ too much between socio-economic status.
Primarily county and precinct-level data. The degree of geographic overlap between educational attainment/household income and partisan preference solidified further in the first post-Dobbs midterm. Ideally, there will be exit poll breakdowns of reproductive rights salience along educational and income lines this year so we have a clearer picture.
Well, this was conventional wisdom in the pre-Dobbs years, but we are seeing states like TX trying to prosecute people who travel for this care and get access to medical records to enable their witch hunts. This idea that it "should be left to the states" is coming home to roost and its clear where this is headed at the federal level. No amount of electoral pushback has yet to moderate the right's views on this, at best they just de-emphasize it in their campaign rhetoric.
I've already chosen 48\50 states(I'll post when I'm confident in my prediction of the final 2); I'll give you credit by sticking to your beliefs, though imo you are way too high on Trump's popular vote share
I think you’re internally inconsistent with the popular vote. You set the battlegrounds more or less the same as 2016. You dialed down GA Trump margin by quite a bit from 2016, and a little in AZ. This could mean all 7 together are actually closer than 2016!
Also there is not much you dialed down in safe Blue states (which you compared to 2020, already much higher than 2016), or dialed up much in safe red states for Trump.
The movement in the large 4 + Ohio probably won’t be enough to flip the popular vote, lest a Trump 50%, which would be more or less at least a 2pt victory.
Here's my question: What are these predictions based on?
When I make my predictions (which hasn't happened yet), they'll be based on four factors: 1) Fundamentals/previous election results (50%), polls (30%), fundraising (10%), and ground game (10%). How would you rate the importance of those factors, and are you taking into account any others besides those?
what do you think they are based on?consider the source: as much negativity and doom/gloom as possible. trmp will lose approx 2% of his vote and KH will gain approx 1% from Biden's vote...do the math!! ;-)
I may disagree with Mark27's predictions, but I still think he's a reasonable person deserving of having a non-snarky conversation with. Just because you think Harris will win doesn't mean it's OK to be irrationally overconfident without providing any evidence.
Mark is predicting a calamity, but he's doing it with detail and specifics. Pretty much all you seem to do here is to post cheerleading backed by nothing, which doesn't really help advance discussion, in my opinion. In terms of content, "Kamala is gonna win!!!" is not actually more valuable than "Kamala is gonna lose!!!", except that the latter is a troll on a Democratic site.
The big black hole this cycle is which polls to trust. National polls? Swing state? Or subgroup overweights, like the Harvard Youth Poll or the Howard U poll of Black voters
If not for polls, I'd think Harris was on the way to a 7-8 point victory in Michigan, thanks to Dems' strong performance there in 2022 despite low inner-city and African-American turnout. Taking polls into account, I think she wins Michigan by 5 (compared with Biden's 3-point win there).
This is sort of why I think we should be OK here, at least in my happier moments. We had bad turnout in 2020. For example, Detroit was something like 20% behind Michigan as a whole, 51% vs over 70%. And we still won.
I don't have it parsed out as deliberately as you but fundamentals/previous election results are definitely at the top of the list. Polls are of declining significance because I think they're broken and fail to pick up on electoral dynamism. Obviously, demographic make-up looms large, which is why I think Harris has a decent chance at Georgia if she can hold on to most of the 2020 black vote. The other element I include that most scoff at is anecdotes. I watch a lot of man-on-the-street coverage and am stunned by how many random young black men the interviewers (not just Fox) find who support Trump. I don't shrug that stuff off lightly.
I don't shrug off any true opinions of anyone; I just feel they have zero predictive value(I do share your skepticism of current polling and actually believe that they are shaded this cycle towards Trump, not Harris, because of the misses in both 2016 and 2020)
Like I posted up thread,👆 I'm confident in 48\50 states; the final 2 (probably not surprising) are AZ and NC; I expect sometime next week I'll pull the trigger on a final prediction
Polls seem extra sensitive these days to the weighting assumptions of the pollsters. Now, I don’t think that’s something out of malice or incompetence, but it’s something to be considered
It’s just like CNN finding old white Republicans who have flipped for Harris. Good for them, but I don’t think they’re representative of their demographic just because CNN put them on tv
She doesn't bring personal baggage but she carries the baton from an unpopular administration where voters are convinced their lives suck. If it wasn't for the Dobbs ruling, this election would probably be a Trump landslide.
All of those things are true, but history tends to rhyme. Has any Presidential nominee from the incumbent party been elected when the incumbent President has an approval rating as low as Biden's?
I don’t know off the top of my head, but the economy isn’t in a severe recession. There’s no massive war going on like Vietnam. No massive social unrest. No division in the Democratic Party as there was in 2016. No pandemic either.
The conditions that would lead to Harris losing aren’t there. That’s why the 13 Keys favor her—and not Trump.
Fundamentally I don’t see what support Trump has gained since 2020. I don’t see many Trump/Biden/Trump voters out there.
I’m not saying Harris is guaranteed to win, but I’d rather be her than Trump.
If I was to look at the economic fundamentals without context, I'd agree with you that conditions seem pretty impressive. But perception is reality and a clear majority of people think the economy is in terrible shape. In many ways, they're delusional, particularly those angry about grocery prices or especially gas prices....
But it's the big-ticket items where inflation hits really hard. You'd be hard-pressed to get even the most minor car repair done for less than a $1,000 nowadays. That's a spoiled Christmas for most families. I'm driving around with a dislodged fog light right now because it was a $375 fix to replace it. Any sort of furnace or plumbing repairs in the home is budget-busting beyond comprehension. My parents have had a whole bunch of things break down this past year and it's been thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars of repair and replacement work....the kind of things that would completely break the majority of people if they faced the same timeline of misfortune. Of course, the irony is that a big part of what's driving expenses is that the market price for labor for the very blue-collar workers who hate Biden and Harris to their core has gone up so much during the Biden-Harris years.
And then, there's the most jaw-dropping source of runaway expense that is our broken health care system. And Donald Trump is gonna replace this broken health care system with "something really terrific"!
Truman's (re)election, I believe, came with similar approvals, although there was far less polling at the time to confirm that. Of course, the inverse always hasn't held true (1960, 2000, 2016, debatably 1976), presidents before Obama didn't operate with approvals hovering around nil from the opposing party by default, and Biden's the first president since the advent of polling to generate significant polling disapproval on largely ideological grounds from their own end of the spectrum.
I appreciate you putting all this out there, but if your read is correct then both parties are basically blowing it by focusing on the wrong House races. You're describing an environment like 2022. The pattern of spending on House races and the handicappers' views of those races suggest an environment very similar to 2020.
Like you, I expect Harris to do worse among noncollege men (especially whites and Latinos) than Biden did. But I expect her to make it up by doing better among noncollege women (especially younger nonwhites going from not voting to Dem), college men, and college women. If Dems were slipping among black and Latino voters since 2020, I think we would have seen evidence of it in 2022 and 2023 and we really didn't.
At any rate, we'll see. I'll post my own state predictions closer to the election.
We didn't have much evidence of Latino slippage in 2018 and 2019 ahead of Trump's impressive 2020 showing either. Presidential elections tend to be at the tip of the spear in fometing realignments.
I now have tentative predictions based on a crude model that weights 2020 at 50%, the adjusted aggregate 2022 House vote at 25%, and the slightly adjusted polling average at 25%. I made ad hoc adjustments to some states (e.g. I had to bump Harris down in AK and ME and up in SD due to Peltola, Golden, and Dusty Johnson all overperforming) but the only one I made in a swing state was to bump MI down a point due to that which we do not speak of. Anyway, for the swing states I have Harris winning the popular vote by about 4 and MI by 3, PA and NV by 2, WI by 1, and GA and AZ by less than 1 and Trump winning NC by less than 1. For now.
I still think Mark Robinson has helped the whole ticket in NC marginally enough to where the top line might be impacted(I am not quite ready to predict either AZ or NC)
I wrote this before I expanded the comment. The final prediction is even worse than I imagined. Like probably everyone here, I pray it's wrong. But what you pray for and what you get are two different things.
A lot of new voters in suburbs, that may be fitting your upscale swingy Trump hating R category. Right now the D turnout in these R leaning suburbs are holding up well. Also the core D areas (Hispanic majority cores of Phx and Tucson) the turn out is decent.
Outside of Maricopa and Pima, The old west has much less movement cycle after cycle. The R heavy retiree destinations/exurbs (three counties Pinal, Yacapai, Mohave) the R gains are more or less you can count, probably with additional 25k Trump margin.
So the game is if Harris can gain 15k net in Maricopa and Pima. Not sure yet, but much less dicey than GA or NC.
So look through all the numbers, I don’t think Trump winning popular vote in your setting?
California -4, NY -7, FL +8, TX+2 don’t see to be enough? That 25pt in California is a whole lot, like 4.5m votes. Unless the turnout craters to something like a midterm.
You might be right that my math isn't lopsided enough to translate to a Trump popular vote win. Now that I'm adding it up in my head, it seems like it could come up short.
These are quite a bit less ugly than my Presidential predictions....
Arizona--Gallego by 2
California--Schiff by 21
Connecticut--Murphy by 18
Delaware--Blunt Rochester by 19 (tough call with a three-way race)
Florida--Scott by 8
Hawaii--Hirono by 43
Indiana--Banks by 27
Maine--King by 11
Maryland--Alsobrooks by 13
Massachusetts--Warren by 27
Michigan--Slotkin by 2
Minnesota--Klobuchar by 7
Mississippi--Wicker by 25
Missouri--Hawley by 15
Montana--Sheehy by 12
Nebraska-A--Fischer by 14
Nebraska-B--Ricketts by 28
Nevada--Rosen by 3
New Jersey--Kim by 14
New Mexico--Heinrich by 6
New York--Gillibrand by 17
North Dakota--Cramer by 41
Ohio--Moreno by 7
Pennsylvania--Casey by 2
Rhode Island--Whitehouse by 18
Tennessee--Blackburn by 25
Texas--Cruz by 6
Utah--Curtis by 32
Vermont--Sanders by 36
Virginia--Kaine by 13
Washington--Cantwell by 15
West Virginia--Justice by 36
Wisconsin--Baldwin by >1
Wyoming--Barrasso by 40
My predictions have the Democrats down "only" 52-48 in the Senate, limiting losses to the three states where defeat seemed inevitable since 2020. As of now, I'm predicting that Casey, Slotkin, and Baldwin pull it out. If I'm pessimistic on the Presidential numbers, I'd say I'm optimistic on the Senate numbers at this point if the electorate looks like what I fear it will.
You are pessimistic on both. If you add up all the weighted percentages by State for the Presidential election, Trump would be up by about 4-5% head to head now. I don't believe that
Baked in to my predictions is that polling is oversampling educated professionals and undersampling working-class men, including working-class men of color. I think the real wild card this year will be a substantial shift to Trump among black and Hispanic men, and that polling models are missing this. Again, hope I'm wrong.
We cannot say in advance that he's "wrong." That should be obvious, and I find it at least a little dumb to have to spell that out on a campaigns and elections site. Of course, you could very well be joking, but we don't hear your voice or see your facial expression, so not getting the joke is on you.
Yeah that could be. I'm not anticipating the polls be as far off as they were in 2020 but if my suspicion about significant Trump growth in the nonwhite vote plays out, that could be the source of a different kind of polling fail.
Considering your general take on the state of the election, almost all of these make sense. More pessimistic than me, but I'm also someone that refuses to make predictions, so....
I think the extent of the Moreno win in Ohio is bad enough that it's like it's coming from a meaningfully worse cycle than the rest of your predictions. Even taking into account a continued trend of split ticket voting disappearing. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that.
I'd probably be wise to follow your lead and not make predictions, but it's too hard-wired into my competitive nature!
As for Ohio, it's a combination of a decade of polling that almost always badly undersamples Republicans and a realignment so toxic it was one of the few states where Biden did no better than Hillary. And I suspect with Springfield in their backyard and Charleroi just across the border, hostility about immigration is poised to turn rural Ohio into a mirror image of rural Nebraska in terms of party ID.
I'm very competitive most of the time, it's just with politics I find I am unable to sit far enough back to have an objective assessment. I want things to go well, which colors how I go about the whole process.
Trying to suss out where my heart and brain should intersect on elections is too stressful — and too unsuccessful — for me to bother with it. Which is odd as I feel that I generally do a decent to good job of evaluating the state of individual parts of the cycle. I just cannot, with any accuracy, pick out where the die will fall for transforming that into final outcomes.
I find that especially difficult this cycle, too, as so much of the data does not seem to align in any one direction. I'd argue that was also true in 2016 and 2022, and in each cycle there was a modest but very impactful overperformance relative to expectations for one party. And "maybe we do ~2 points better than expectations, but maybe we do ~2 points worse than expectations instead" is not all that helpful!
Thanks for the explanation on Ohio, it makes sense. Hopefully you're wrong!
These all seem pretty reasonable to me, except for Ohio and Arizona. I am leaning towards Moreno winning, but I really don't think he'll win by 7. I Brown will do several points better than Harris, based on polling and what I've been hearing from friends on the ground, and I don't exactly foresee Harris doing significantly worse than Biden. Moreno has also made some not-insignificant missteps that will hurt.
Ultimately, I see Moreno winning by 2-3 points, which saddens me greatly as a former Ohioan.
As for Arizona, unless polling is really off I think Gallego wins by more than 2. He's up very solidly in all the aggregates and Lake is not a candidate who will draw many undecideds to her this late in the game. I can easily see that happening in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania because the Republicans running aren't so odious. Lake lost in a good year for Republicans and underperformed polling while running against a candidate who was not running a strong campaign.
I still have Brown doing five points better than Harris. The problem is I think the bottom is completely falling out in Ohio. Even though the polls are showing a race similar to the 2020 margins, it's hard to shake that the polls in 2016 and 2020 were only in Trump +1 or +2 range.
As for Gallego, I'll acknowledge his significant polling lead has held up all year long. But four years ago, Mark Kelly was running way ahead of Biden in polling but the races converged late. Then again, maybe Gallego is running considerably ahead of Harris with Hispanic men and then accounts for the unusually high gulf the polls keep showing.
You said everyone’s name in your paragraph about AZ except the most important one, Kari Lake. It’s funny how Trump gets away with being a crazy lying idiot but Lake does not. Goes to show how much of a cult MAGA is and also makes me wonder when Trump inevitably goes away. How does the cult continue without its leader? Vance does worry me a bit but the guy is also brand new and his past comments will come up, no doubt.
I hope one of his dipshit sons doesn’t try to run for office. And if they do at least have it to be the good looking one. Ivanka has a couple too many morals so she had to quit the MAGA game.
Yeah I was pondering that very issue about a month ago....why tens of thousands of Arizona voters would be cool with Trump but consider Kari Lake a bridge too far. The most credible explanation, and in keeping with my expectation of significant Hispanic growth for Trump, is that the divide between Trump and Lake is with Hispanic men. Remains to be seen but it's the certainly the most believable explanation.
As for MAGA's future, first of all, we'll see if Trump actually goes away in 2029 if elected. If a sitting President declares it's an "official Presidential act" to fail to accept the outcome of the 2028 election, would there be any standing to remove him based on the Supreme Court's logic? But let's assume he goes away, I think the movement is strong in his absence because there will be no shortage of grievance and backlash to exploit four years from now just as there is today, and if the demand exists, expect the supply to find it's way to meet it in one form or another.
If that's optimism, what would pessimism look like? I don't even want to know. Interesting that you think polling on OH-Sen and NE-Sen A will be wildly off.
Pessimism would look like Senators David McCormick, Mike Rogers, and Eric Hovde, none of which are out of the question if the turnout model is just a bit more MAGA than what current polls indicate.
I’m not convinced the result will be as close as we hope it will be. A lot of voters don’t understand policy but they do understand when someone is trying to play you.
The two prediction sites I follow predict that Sherrod Brown is slightly more likely to win than his opponent. 538 gives Brown a 55% chance of winning, and Race to the White House gives him a 61% likelihood. I'm wondering why you foresee such a decisive victory for Moreno.
Brown's one of my favorite Senators so I hope I'm wrong. I see a decisive victory for Moreno because polls have been underestimating Republican strength in Ohio in nearly every race in the last 10 years. And while the polls weren't so far off in the Ryan-Vance race in 2022, the comprehensive collapse of the Mahoning Valley makes me question what the arithmetic for a Brown statewide victory can possibly look like. And as I've said elsewhere, the Springfield situation in their backyard seems like a particularly combustible situation for a candidate of Biden's party running in Ohio.
My reason for leaning towards a Moreno victory is bc of undecideds. Brown isn’t over 50% and it’s a safe assumption the undecideds are going to lean red due to the overall lean of the state.
I probably won't make a full prediction but the way I'm looking at this election is this, if I could ask Trump's campaign managers 1 question and I was guaranteed to get a truthful answer the question I'd ask is: Do you believe that if the 2024 electorate is the 2020 electorate + people who weren't eligible in 2020 do you think Donald Trump can win?
I think the answer would either be it would be very difficult or just flatly no. Trump's media appearances basically fall into 2 categories, the sycophants and the manosphere. I think he does the former to, if you want to be charitable, push his message and if you want to be uncharitable, to get his ego stroked. I think the latter is to reach voters who consume little-to-no traditional media. And I think its because they're trying to turn out people who didn't turn out in 2020 or did turnout in 2020 but are considered unlikely to do so again this year.
he went much longer on Rogan and basically told a bunch of rally attendees in Michigan, sorry I will be 3 hours late because I needed to go on this podcast in Austin in order to win. There are now videos of people streaming out of the rally
One of the first political rallies I remember going to was a John Edwards VP rally in 04 in my hometown of Kenosha and even though Wisconsin is a quintessential swing state, campaigns generally don't go to a place like Kenosha for a rally. Maybe they'll do a tour of a local business but they rarely do actual rallies. And I was tasked with getting names and numbers from people and the vast majority were strong Kerry supporters and a few were undecided but the thing that surprised me most was of the 100 or so people I talked to a handful of Bush supporters were among the group. And they weren't trolls who were there to try to try to derail the speech and go viral (we were still several years before that was a thing), they were there because a VP candidate coming to Kenosha was a rare thing and they wanted to be there.
I bring that up because what was true of Kenosha is probably also true of Traverse City and while the vast majority of the people at the rally are diehard Trump supporters, there were almost definitely some undecided voters and soft Harris supporters as well and I don't think I'm reaching when I say that the people leaving are probably disproportionately in that group.
The grand slam coming from Freddie Freeman who has a bad ankle is vaguely reminiscent of the Kirk Gibson HR in Game 1 of the 1988 series.
I am glad the game didn't go too late because I will be walking precincts in Lancaster tomorrow morning for George Whitesides in CA-27. Gotta wake up early...
Political analyst Harry Enten's analysis shows Trump is leading nationally among noncollege educated white voters by 27 points, down from 31 points in 2020 and 33 points in 2016.
"That might not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing these double digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that's a rather interesting development," Enten said.
Enten's analysis also revealed that Trump's vote share among noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with his lead currently standing at 19 points, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016.
"Trump is ahead, but his margins are smaller," Enten said. "And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now."
Question is whether to buy these kinds of stats. There’s ample reason to doubt Trump has double digit gains with black voters, so I think him sliding to just +27 with WWC should be taken with grain of salt
When you have these groups that go overwhelmingly for one group or another but don't represent a huge part of the electorate it doesn't take a lot to get these types of polling shifts in the crosstabs of polls. You mentioned black voters, I remember there was some polling that showed Romney getting back or getting close to getting back or even getting back to Bush's 11% with black voters. According to the exit polls he was at 6%. But its not hard to see how you can be off by 5% in polling of a group that makes up 13% of the electorate..
One way to look at it: if you buy Harris's loss among voters of color, you ought to buy her gains among the WWC. Both trends come from the same polling sources.
I expect Trump to do somewhat better among noncollege white men than in 2020, and somewhat worse among noncollege white women. Not sure of the magnitudes of either, but I would very surprised if the whole group shifted 4 points toward Dems. I think the apparent blue shift among noncollege whites is mostly a polling quirk necessary to counter the unlikely red shift a lot of polls are finding among nonwhites.
Harry Enten: "Harris is doing the best for a Democratic presidential candidate among white women in the 21st century... That's big cause they make up such a large chunk of the electorate."
This is what gives me hope...looking at early vote by party ID may be less instructive this year as I think alot of GOP registered women will be crossing over. Or hope anyway...
Average it with Emerson's +3 poll and you get something a bit more reasonable (and I don't believe the eventual gap between Harris and Craig will be as large as 15 points).
I'm not sure what the issue is with a high sample size - it usually means the confidence bounds are narrower than polls in the hundreds. What's more important is the pollster needs to ensure the sampling is representative. Someone can take a look at the cross-tab and let us know.
Or we can just toss it in the poll pile with the rest of them.
I'm not necessarily saying that the poll is wrong mind you; let's be clear, I'm talking about political polling(not polling in general; there's a difference)
Kelly Ayotte was unseated by Maggie Hassan in 2016 and is running in the NH-GOV race in 2024. If she's polling better than Trump in 2024, that indicates that she's got more appeal than him in the state.
Also, in 2016 NH was won by Clinton by the lowest margin of victory since John Kerry in 2004. The state ended up being won by Biden in 2020 by a margin wider than in 2016.
Popularity of a Democratic candidate in a state like NH does matter.
I live in NH, and there's no way in hell that Harris wins by 20 here.
What concerns me is that Craig is supposedly running 15 points behind Harris. If that actually happens, she's toast. But I am extremely skeptical that the gap will be that big.
I agree Harris won't win by 20 points. However, the margins in the polls suggest she'll win by perhaps larger or at around the same amount Biden won NH back in 2020.
Since you live in NH, do you believe Ayotte has a higher approval rating than Trump? She was unseated by Maggie Hassan in the Senate back in 2016 but as far as I understand is in more of the traditional Republican camp.
LOL I did not realize your handle change until yesterday when I fat fingered on mobile your profile. I'm mostly a lurker but glad to officially meet your acquaintance on this new site.
Did you join the Discord? So far I have loved the real-time chat during DNC convention and debate. But I wonder about long-form posts, those may be lost in Discord.
Yup;thinking that's another thing but the mistress on the payroll with possible menage a trois is the killer and another payroll issue of a similar nature to boot(how did dude actually think he wouldn't get caught?)
This is a great chart that should calm some nerves and calmed mine for sure yall! Visualize the huge mountain of young voters yet to cast a ballot. Hopefully they vote!
On the similar note, the Republicans are reinvesting in the Senate race with their 6 million dollar buy, but days earlier the Congressional committee bailed on all three Vegas seats.
And now Democrats have also pulled their advertisement reservations for the remainder of the election. House Majority PAC will not air anything in Southern Nevada.
Either Democrats are confident or they are triaging Horsford, Lee, and Titus all at the same time. I'd like to believe it was the former! Very strange dynamics at play here with different sides seeing different takes on the Early vote.
Perhaps Tom but that graph shows that the majority of people who have voted thus far are over 50 which is an age demographic that indisputably favors Rs. I would much prefer better results but there is a strong indication that 18-30+ may go our way.
Remember in NV, the unions do a ton of work on election day including giving folks the day off. Culinary workers in Vegas hotels and restaurants are going to skew young.
Gender turnout gap is +14% points in MI, +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +10 in WI, +9 in NC, +4 in AZ, -2 in NV.
It is really bizarre to me that basically what we largely agree is the Democratic base has essentially not even voted yet in Nevada so long after early voting has begun...
It’s been 1 week since early voting started in Nevada October 19. They have until November 1 to vote in person. That is why Harris will be out there on Halloween in Las Vegas to rally early voting. mailed ballot must be received by 11/9/24.
I've said it before, I'll say it again; the polls always suck in Nevada, then the Reid\Culinary Union machine cranks up its engine(and honestly, this cycle the polls haven't really sucked)
And he barely even lost the Senate election. Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto only won by roughly .77% points, a considerable drop from 2016 when she won the Senate election then to replace Harry Reid.
Watching Iowa and their early voting. Democrats are outvoting Republicans by about 10k votes statewide at the moment and the 1st and 3rd districts have the highest turnout. Harris probably wont win but all the talk about tarriffs may shake some family farmers who saw what Trump’s soybean trade wars did to Iowa’s farmers. Love to see the final Selzer poll
Anything out of Iowa is good(Larry Sabato has both seats as Lean R; winning even 1 pretty much gives the Democrats the House assuming swings in competitive districts)
The airwaves on central Iowa TV are chock full of ads for both races. I have no sense of momentum in the IA-03 race or the cluster of competitive suburban legislative races, but I don't feel like Baccam has landed any devastating punches on Nunn. I was surprised Cindy Axne came as close as she did to hanging on in 2022 in what was likely a redder year in Iowa than 2024 will be, however, so this is definitely the race I feel better about of the two.
As for IA-01, I'll be fascinated to see what kind of winning coalition Bohannon could possibly put together given the trendline of that district outside of Johnson County.
I'd be curious to see how IA fares at the presidential level if it means Harris will lose the state but at a smaller margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.
RIP Phil Lesh.
https://x.com/EmpireStateBldg/status/1849912935579025807
Let's do a few prediction questions this weekend.
1) How will the following large Pennsylvania counties vote: Erie, Beaver, Allegheny, Centre, Lackawanna, Northampton, Cumberland, Lancaster, Montgomery, Bucks
2) Which county in America will have the largest swing, in either direction, from 2020 to 2024?
3) Who will be the House incumbent who loses by the widest margin?
1) Trump and McCormick get Erie, Beaver, Cumberland, and Lancaster. Harris and Casey get Centre, Allegheny, Montgomery, and Bucks. Split for Lackawanna and Northampton which go Trump-Casey.
2) Largest swing will be Maverick County, Texas, to Trump.
3) No idea which races have only minor-party challengers versus Republicans or Democrats.
None of those will(question 3); it's a question about an incumbent losing
You're right. I read the question wrong.
On #3; I am going D'Esposito
For #3, I suspect Williams in NY-22, but that's largely due to redistricting.
Not counting redistricted incumbents, John Duarte in CA-13 seems like a contender.
Williams was my 2nd choice but I went with D'Esposito because of the scandal
Yeah once I boned up on what that scandal was… yikes
1. Trump: Beaver, Cumberland, Lancaster
Harris: Allegheny (Harris hits 60%), Centre, Montgomery, Bucks, Lackawanna, Erie (by less than 1%)
Fun Fact: A Republican hasn't hit 50% in Erie County since Reagan in 1984
Lackawanna looks that rough even with Scranton, eh? Think Cartwright hangs on?
Looked at the wrong county. fixing.
Like I said yesterday, we will find out that a significant # of EV republicans are those who are defecting and voting for KH or someone else. I liked reading the anecdote on DK about the lady who wrote in Jesus! As for what race: CA house races Steel v. Tran, Min v. Baugh and Calvert v. Rollins...long past time for those vile Rs to be gone!!
Calvert's not looking good for re-election considering his new House district is a Lean Red swing district. He also as a Congressman doesn't have particularly good charisma and is low profile in comparison to most House Republicans.
I don't think it's at all clear that Calvert's district is Lean-R anymore. This year's voting will tell the tale.
That's a good point you're raising.
The district has been rated as Lean GOP for some time but the demographics in the district are not overwhelmingly white. In fact, there are sizable non-white voter demographics that represent problems for Calvert's ability to even hold on to his seat.
Calvert’s old majority-minority district’s Solid R status was, at the end, a self-fulfilling prophecy based on a failure of the party to attempt to seriously challenge him, and a demoralized Dem electorate with no hope. The redistricting helped, but primarily by making it no longer unthinkable that he might lose.
Actually, if you look at the old CA-42 district that Calvert occupied, it still had sizable non-white demographics. The problem was that the DSCC overlooked this and didn't really pursue the district amid these facts. White voters were not an overwhelming majority. Could be that Calvert to these non-white voters was not considered a lightning rod enough to be voted out.
That said, the redistricting for sure closed the margins in the new CA-41 district so that Calvert is more vulnerable now.
Jesús – wasn’t that the Mexican child migrant who Trump put in a cage?
Maybe the reason polls are tightening a bit is that Dems are a higher share of the early vote (60-40 by most surveys) so they have less incentive to answer/respond to polls? That’s all I’ve got..
I filled up my gas tank for my weekend trip in New Smyrna Beach, Florida; I paid $2.68\gallon; which is the lowest price I can remember paying since covid-19; what are the gas pices where you are? (Please include your location; thanks);have a great weekend everyone
3.06, 3.09, 3.17 seen at three nearby gas stations. About 50 minutes north of NYC.
Monroeville, PA (18 miles East of Downtown Pittsburgh): $3.40-3.50
North Versailles (4 miles south of Monroeville): as low as $3.25
You too. Shockingly, 4.22 in Santa Clarita, CA today. Shocking because it's dropped like a stone in recent weeks, because there's always some excuse in CA to keep gas prices absurdly high ("switching to winter/summer blend"; refinery X is shut down for Y reason, etc.), and also shocking because I believe gas prices are highly manipulated by bad faith actors . . . and now would seem to be their hour with close enough to a Democratic incumbent running for re-election *and* Middle East strife upon which to lay the blame. Maybe my puuuuuurely hypothetical bad faith actors don't want more Trump any more than quite a significant number of high-profile Republicans do.
I alternate between two countries:
– Turner, Maine: $3.02
– Bergen, Norway: $1.92 (per liter!) – $7.27 per gallon
Northern Cook County: 3.27
Chicago: 3.59
4.15 at Sam's Club (lower than most) in Folsom, CA on Monday.
Outside of Charleston, SC. Regular is $2.56. I use diesel though. It's at $3.20 which is lower than it has been recently. I drive so little though that I only fill up every other month or so. Last time was late summer and it was ~$3.50 back then.
The congressional race I'm still focusing on is Anna Paulina Luna in Florida(and the electoral lessons that can be learned from it)
That race will show how upper-middle-class suburbs vote.
Yup
And it will measure the electability of a batshit crazy incumbent in such a district
I have an instinctive feeling that FL-13 will be a closer race than back in 2022. Whether that means Luna or her Democratic challenger Whitney Fox will win I don't know.
Win or lose; I can't fathom her having a long career, if not this cycle; for her to become entrenched would require a different district make up imo
Agreed. Given FL-13 is a Lean GOP district, I'd be curious to see how the district's demographics will change overtime.
Over time.
I feel like it's just too gerrymandered but Fox might be able to close the gap some. Hope to be wrong.
And liar on the order of Santos.
Probably not a representative suburban district.
Pinellas outside of St Pete downtown is relatively downscale except the barrier islands. More like a giant exurb. And very old. Probably second only to the two SWFL seats
Final Presidential Predictions.....
I almost always prefer to drop my final predictions before the last minute as I think it's cheating to wait for election eve.
Avert your gaze if you don't want to read a sub-optimal take....
The nonbattlegrounds....
Alabama--Trump by 29 (+4 from 2020)
Alaska--Trump by 9 (-1 from 2020)
Arkansas--Trump by 29 (+3 from 2020)
California--Harris by 25 (-4 from 2020)
Colorado--Harris by 12 (-1 from 2020)
Connecticut--Harris by 20 (Same as 2020)
Delaware--Harris by 16 (-3 from 2020)
District of Columbia--Harris by 84 (-3 from 2020)
Florida--Trump by 11 (+8 from 2020)
Hawaii--Harris by 28 (-1 from 2020)
Idaho--Trump by 32 (+2 from 2020)
Illinois--Harris by 15 (-2 from 2020)
Indiana--Trump by 19 (+3 from 2020)
Iowa--Trump by 12 (+4 from 2020)
Kansas--Trump by 13 (-2 from 2020)
Kentucky--Trump by 28 (+2 from 2020)
Louisiana--Trump by 22 (+4 from 2020)
Maine--Harris by 9 (Same as 2020)
Maine CD 2--Trump by 8
Maryland--Harris by 33 (Same as 2020)
Massachusetts--Harris by 32 (-1 from 2020)
Minnesota--Harris by 4 (-3 from 2020)
Mississippi--Trump by 20 (-4 from 2020)
Missouri--Trump by 18 (+3 from 2020)
Montana--Trump by 21 (+5 from 2020)
Nebraska--Trump by 20 (+1 from 2020)
New Hampshire--Harris by 8 (+1 from 2020)
New Jersey--Harris by 13 (-3 from 2020)
New Mexico--Harris by 7 (-4 from 2020)
New York--Harris by 16 (-7 from 2020)
North Dakota--Trump by 37 (+4 from 2020)
Ohio--Trump by 12 (+4 from 2020)
Oklahoma--Trump by 36 (+3 from 2020)
Oregon--Harris by 16 (Same as 2020)
Rhode Island--Harris by 18 (-2 from 2020)
South Carolina--Trump by 13 (+1 from 2020)
South Dakota--Trump by 29 (+3 from 2020)
Tennessee--Trump by 24 (+1 from 2020)
Texas--Trump by 8 (+2 from 2020)
Utah--Trump by 24 (+4 from 2020)
Vermont--Harris by 34 (-1 from 2020)
Virginia--Harris by 11 (+1 from 2020)
Washington--Harris by 18 (-1 from 2020)
West Virginia--Trump by 41 (+2 from 2020)
Wyoming--Trump by 44 (+1 from 2020)
Rust Belt Battlegrounds
Michigan--Keep your eye on Saginaw County as the bellwether. Biden eked out a win four years ago. This year, if Trump is winning by 5+ points, it's indicative of working-class collapse severe enough that the votes from the managerial class in upscale outer suburbs won't matter. Trump by 1 (+4 from 2020)
Pennsylvania--Keep your eye on Erie County as the bellwether. Biden eked out a win four years ago. This year, if Trump is winning by 5+ points, it's indicative of working-class collapse severe enough that the votes from the managerial class in upscale outer suburbs won't matter. Trump by 1 (+2 from 2020)
Wisconsin--Keep your eye on Chippewa County. It's not a bellwether for the state as Trump won it by 20 points four years ago. But it is a bellwether for the white working-class vote. If Trump is winning it by 25+ points this year, it's indicative of working-class collapse severe enough that the votes from the managerial class in upscale outer suburbs won't matter. Trump by 2 (+3 from 2020)
Sun Belt Battlegrounds
Georgia--Different calculus given the demographics. It's possible that the managerial class could swing the election to Harris here. But given that she has zero margin for error with the Democratic base in Georgia, any sort of shift to Trump or modest reduction in turnout among black voters would make the math daunting for upscale whites to save her here either. But I will say I like her chances better in Georgia than I do in Pennsylvania right now...or certainly Wisconsin. Trump by 1. (+1.5 from 2020)
Arizona--The trend has been diminishing Democratic margins among Hispanic voters and if that trend continues, nowhere will it be felt more than in Arizona. Once again, if Democratic success depends upon the managerial class of Scottsdale trending their way more quickly than the working class of south Phoenix trends against them, I don't love their chances. Trump by 2. (+3 from 2020)
Nevada--Early voting reports haven't been encouraging and demographic trends look problematic for Democrats, but given that the party seems to find a way to win here almost every cycle, I'll maintain that Harris ekes out this single battleground state victory. Harris by 1. (-1 from 2020)
North Carolina--Still seems like a pipe dream. If Biden couldn't win in a D+4 electorate, I suspect Harris will not only fail to win but backslide to Hillary's numbers in an electorate this year that seems likely to be quite a bit redder than the 2020 electorate. Trump by 3. (+2 from 2020)
Other Battleground
Nebraska CD-2--All indications point to a comfortable Harris win and I have no reason to doubt it. Harris by 7.
Final Thoughts
These results actually reflect a decidedly more optimistic take than my actual feelings are, especially now with a closing message that I think will be disastrous, failing to inspire soft base voters who are looking for deliverables from even bothering to vote. The implications are horrifying at seemingly infinite levels and there will be no shortage of unpacking how we got to this point come November 6. But regarding November 5, I'm predicting 306 electoral votes for Trump and 232 for Harris. Not only do I think Trump will win the popular vote, I think he has an excellent chance of cresting 50%.
If nothing else, I respect you putting this prediction down with your reasoning
I'd love nothing more than to be way off. It all boils down to two things.....
1) Does the cross-racial working-class vote get just a little bit worse for Harris compared to Biden....or much worse?
And 2) Just how many upscale suburban voters that Biden didn't already pick off four years ago still exist to be taken out of the GOP column? My feeling is.....far fewer than what the Harris campaign is counting on.
I respect your opinion, though I'm more optimistic, in part because I think 2) goes both ways. Just how many working-class voters that Trump didn't pick off in 2016/2020 still exist to be taken out of the Democratic column? The only large group of such voters is the non-white group, and large-sample polls don't show a ton of slippage there. Certainly not enough for a 5-plus-point swing nationwide.
Large sample polls also show Harris running well ahead of Biden with college voters.
So that’s slippage in both directions that could offset, which is fine for us in, say, Georgia or NC but maybe not Wisconsin
The problem in GA and BC are the downscale minority voters. Do they turn out or not.
GA NC, my bad.
#2. Not sure. I guess they would be already places we see a lot of bluing.
And on the most important #3. Trump gain in downscale minority voters? So far I doubt it. But it does seem the downscale minority turnout may suffer. It is quite posible Harris gets a slightly better % than 2020, and a whole lot less votes. That could be the most damaging dynamic.
Your argument #2 is the biggest criticism I have of your predictions because that is not at all what it boils down to. You're completely ignoring women of all economic classes who will either be new voters or shift from Trump to Harris as well as specifically younger women voters who will strongly support Harris. It seems that you're focusing on very small portions of the electorate where Trump may do better based on anecdotes, while just waving a way a huge part of the electorate where Harris will most likely do better based on logic and the limited data we have.
I'm hoping there's an income/education breakdown in the exit polls on the salience of the reproductive rights issue, as well as the size of the gender gap amongst college and noncollege voters. My suspicion is reproductive rights is vastly, vastly more salient with upscale, educated women than with downscale, noncollege women.....and that there's ultimately a bigger gulf between college women and noncollege women than there is between noncollege women and noncollege men. Certainly the county and precinct level data from 2022 points to reproductive rights concerns skewing heavily upscale.
The degree to which we're two different countries talking past each other in the mid-2020s is perfectly distilled in the two issues that make up 90% of the partisan ads this cycle. Reproductive rights seems to be extremely salient among upscale and college voters but doesn't appear to move the needle very much among downscale voters. And immigration and the border is spectacularly salient among downscale, noncollege voters while upscale, college voters are scratching their chin wondering what the big deal is.
What specific data from 2022 are you referring to? That’s a very interesting theory and I’ll be interested to see the numbers as well, both from 2022 and after this election. I can see where downscale voters might be more susceptible to the idea that immigration directly impacts them and is the cause of their concerns even though for the vast majority of them it’s complete rubbish. However, at the same time those folks are the ones who are most impacted by abortion bans. Upscale and college degree women can travel to get the health care they need. Abortion bans are (for the most part) an inconvenience. It’s the folks who don’t have the means to fly or drive to a neighboring state for the weekend who are facing the most severe consequences. That being said, I don’t think the effect of being declared a second class citizen will differ too much between socio-economic status.
Primarily county and precinct-level data. The degree of geographic overlap between educational attainment/household income and partisan preference solidified further in the first post-Dobbs midterm. Ideally, there will be exit poll breakdowns of reproductive rights salience along educational and income lines this year so we have a clearer picture.
Well, this was conventional wisdom in the pre-Dobbs years, but we are seeing states like TX trying to prosecute people who travel for this care and get access to medical records to enable their witch hunts. This idea that it "should be left to the states" is coming home to roost and its clear where this is headed at the federal level. No amount of electoral pushback has yet to moderate the right's views on this, at best they just de-emphasize it in their campaign rhetoric.
Did you mean to write the same text for both Michigan and Pennsylvania?
I'm cautiously optimistic about both states and think Kamala will eke out wins. I'm less confident in Wisconsin.
Yes. I wrote very similar text for WI, MI, and PA because I think the same electoral calculation applies to all three states.
Biden is not on the ballot!!
D’oh! Fixed.
I've already chosen 48\50 states(I'll post when I'm confident in my prediction of the final 2); I'll give you credit by sticking to your beliefs, though imo you are way too high on Trump's popular vote share
Hope I'm wrong on both the popular and electoral vote!
Me too
I think you’re internally inconsistent with the popular vote. You set the battlegrounds more or less the same as 2016. You dialed down GA Trump margin by quite a bit from 2016, and a little in AZ. This could mean all 7 together are actually closer than 2016!
Also there is not much you dialed down in safe Blue states (which you compared to 2020, already much higher than 2016), or dialed up much in safe red states for Trump.
The movement in the large 4 + Ohio probably won’t be enough to flip the popular vote, lest a Trump 50%, which would be more or less at least a 2pt victory.
Here's my question: What are these predictions based on?
When I make my predictions (which hasn't happened yet), they'll be based on four factors: 1) Fundamentals/previous election results (50%), polls (30%), fundraising (10%), and ground game (10%). How would you rate the importance of those factors, and are you taking into account any others besides those?
what do you think they are based on?consider the source: as much negativity and doom/gloom as possible. trmp will lose approx 2% of his vote and KH will gain approx 1% from Biden's vote...do the math!! ;-)
I may disagree with Mark27's predictions, but I still think he's a reasonable person deserving of having a non-snarky conversation with. Just because you think Harris will win doesn't mean it's OK to be irrationally overconfident without providing any evidence.
Mark is predicting a calamity, but he's doing it with detail and specifics. Pretty much all you seem to do here is to post cheerleading backed by nothing, which doesn't really help advance discussion, in my opinion. In terms of content, "Kamala is gonna win!!!" is not actually more valuable than "Kamala is gonna lose!!!", except that the latter is a troll on a Democratic site.
The big black hole this cycle is which polls to trust. National polls? Swing state? Or subgroup overweights, like the Harvard Youth Poll or the Howard U poll of Black voters
If not for polls, I'd think Harris was on the way to a 7-8 point victory in Michigan, thanks to Dems' strong performance there in 2022 despite low inner-city and African-American turnout. Taking polls into account, I think she wins Michigan by 5 (compared with Biden's 3-point win there).
That’s fair
This is sort of why I think we should be OK here, at least in my happier moments. We had bad turnout in 2020. For example, Detroit was something like 20% behind Michigan as a whole, 51% vs over 70%. And we still won.
The considerable polling error against Democrats in Michigan in 2022 definitely can't be underestimated.
I don't have it parsed out as deliberately as you but fundamentals/previous election results are definitely at the top of the list. Polls are of declining significance because I think they're broken and fail to pick up on electoral dynamism. Obviously, demographic make-up looms large, which is why I think Harris has a decent chance at Georgia if she can hold on to most of the 2020 black vote. The other element I include that most scoff at is anecdotes. I watch a lot of man-on-the-street coverage and am stunned by how many random young black men the interviewers (not just Fox) find who support Trump. I don't shrug that stuff off lightly.
I don't shrug off any true opinions of anyone; I just feel they have zero predictive value(I do share your skepticism of current polling and actually believe that they are shaded this cycle towards Trump, not Harris, because of the misses in both 2016 and 2020)
That's a real possibility. About the only thing that gives me hope is that that was mostly true in 2022.
Like I posted up thread,👆 I'm confident in 48\50 states; the final 2 (probably not surprising) are AZ and NC; I expect sometime next week I'll pull the trigger on a final prediction
AZ in particular I feel like we’re flying blind in
I'm confident in 45/50. I'm pretty sure Harris wins MI and PA. I think she'll win NV, WI, and GA but I'm not confident.
Polls seem extra sensitive these days to the weighting assumptions of the pollsters. Now, I don’t think that’s something out of malice or incompetence, but it’s something to be considered
The interviewers are *looking* for them and will amplify them instantaneously. That doesn't make them numerous.
It’s just like CNN finding old white Republicans who have flipped for Harris. Good for them, but I don’t think they’re representative of their demographic just because CNN put them on tv
The trick thing in GA, is exactly whether she can hold on the 2020 Black voters.
I respectfully don’t see that. This isn’t 2016 and Harris isn’t Hillary. Harris doesn’t bring the same baggage Hillary brought to the table.
She doesn't bring personal baggage but she carries the baton from an unpopular administration where voters are convinced their lives suck. If it wasn't for the Dobbs ruling, this election would probably be a Trump landslide.
This isn’t 1980 and Trump isn’t Ronald Reagan. Harris isn’t Jimmy Carter. There’s no world where Trump wins in a landslide even without Dobbs.
That’s the dumbest statement I’ve seen in a while.
All of those things are true, but history tends to rhyme. Has any Presidential nominee from the incumbent party been elected when the incumbent President has an approval rating as low as Biden's?
I don’t know off the top of my head, but the economy isn’t in a severe recession. There’s no massive war going on like Vietnam. No massive social unrest. No division in the Democratic Party as there was in 2016. No pandemic either.
The conditions that would lead to Harris losing aren’t there. That’s why the 13 Keys favor her—and not Trump.
Fundamentally I don’t see what support Trump has gained since 2020. I don’t see many Trump/Biden/Trump voters out there.
I’m not saying Harris is guaranteed to win, but I’d rather be her than Trump.
If I was to look at the economic fundamentals without context, I'd agree with you that conditions seem pretty impressive. But perception is reality and a clear majority of people think the economy is in terrible shape. In many ways, they're delusional, particularly those angry about grocery prices or especially gas prices....
But it's the big-ticket items where inflation hits really hard. You'd be hard-pressed to get even the most minor car repair done for less than a $1,000 nowadays. That's a spoiled Christmas for most families. I'm driving around with a dislodged fog light right now because it was a $375 fix to replace it. Any sort of furnace or plumbing repairs in the home is budget-busting beyond comprehension. My parents have had a whole bunch of things break down this past year and it's been thousands upon thousands upon thousands of dollars of repair and replacement work....the kind of things that would completely break the majority of people if they faced the same timeline of misfortune. Of course, the irony is that a big part of what's driving expenses is that the market price for labor for the very blue-collar workers who hate Biden and Harris to their core has gone up so much during the Biden-Harris years.
And then, there's the most jaw-dropping source of runaway expense that is our broken health care system. And Donald Trump is gonna replace this broken health care system with "something really terrific"!
Truman's (re)election, I believe, came with similar approvals, although there was far less polling at the time to confirm that. Of course, the inverse always hasn't held true (1960, 2000, 2016, debatably 1976), presidents before Obama didn't operate with approvals hovering around nil from the opposing party by default, and Biden's the first president since the advent of polling to generate significant polling disapproval on largely ideological grounds from their own end of the spectrum.
I appreciate you putting all this out there, but if your read is correct then both parties are basically blowing it by focusing on the wrong House races. You're describing an environment like 2022. The pattern of spending on House races and the handicappers' views of those races suggest an environment very similar to 2020.
Like you, I expect Harris to do worse among noncollege men (especially whites and Latinos) than Biden did. But I expect her to make it up by doing better among noncollege women (especially younger nonwhites going from not voting to Dem), college men, and college women. If Dems were slipping among black and Latino voters since 2020, I think we would have seen evidence of it in 2022 and 2023 and we really didn't.
At any rate, we'll see. I'll post my own state predictions closer to the election.
We didn't have much evidence of Latino slippage in 2018 and 2019 ahead of Trump's impressive 2020 showing either. Presidential elections tend to be at the tip of the spear in fometing realignments.
I now have tentative predictions based on a crude model that weights 2020 at 50%, the adjusted aggregate 2022 House vote at 25%, and the slightly adjusted polling average at 25%. I made ad hoc adjustments to some states (e.g. I had to bump Harris down in AK and ME and up in SD due to Peltola, Golden, and Dusty Johnson all overperforming) but the only one I made in a swing state was to bump MI down a point due to that which we do not speak of. Anyway, for the swing states I have Harris winning the popular vote by about 4 and MI by 3, PA and NV by 2, WI by 1, and GA and AZ by less than 1 and Trump winning NC by less than 1. For now.
I still think Mark Robinson has helped the whole ticket in NC marginally enough to where the top line might be impacted(I am not quite ready to predict either AZ or NC)
The CA guess seems plausible.
These educated guesses point us toward a Trump victory, don't they? Sad. I find the FL guess particularly saddening. So they now like fascism there?
I wrote this before I expanded the comment. The final prediction is even worse than I imagined. Like probably everyone here, I pray it's wrong. But what you pray for and what you get are two different things.
Maybe I am not quite following you(apologies); can you maybe expand upon this?
I'm talking about Mark's downbeat predictions upthread. I'm not sure why my comment got placed down here, but it's surely my fault.
? 306-247. Some math errors?
Ugh! You're right. I double-counted something!
A repeat of 2016 map except NE02. Same T 306 H232.
Gained NE02, one vote each in OR/CO. Lost one each in CA/NY/IL.
Thanks. I'll change it in my original post.
I do think MI/PA/GA will decide the outcome. Not knowing WI much, won’t say anything.
Feeling a bit optimistic about AZ. I do think the margin in NC might be tighter than that, but it remains the toughest of all battlegrounds.
Any reason you're optimistic about AZ out of curiosity?
A lot of new voters in suburbs, that may be fitting your upscale swingy Trump hating R category. Right now the D turnout in these R leaning suburbs are holding up well. Also the core D areas (Hispanic majority cores of Phx and Tucson) the turn out is decent.
Outside of Maricopa and Pima, The old west has much less movement cycle after cycle. The R heavy retiree destinations/exurbs (three counties Pinal, Yacapai, Mohave) the R gains are more or less you can count, probably with additional 25k Trump margin.
So the game is if Harris can gain 15k net in Maricopa and Pima. Not sure yet, but much less dicey than GA or NC.
The upscale movement is not just in very upscale Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, etc.
actually it shows up more in the SE side, and to a lesser extent to the NW side around Peoria/Glendale.
I used to think Florida being 7-9pt. Guess would need to dial the deficit up a little.
Anyway, it will be the largest Trump numeric margin of all 51. I really don’t get the Hopium on Florida part. How can you miss that?!
So look through all the numbers, I don’t think Trump winning popular vote in your setting?
California -4, NY -7, FL +8, TX+2 don’t see to be enough? That 25pt in California is a whole lot, like 4.5m votes. Unless the turnout craters to something like a midterm.
You might be right that my math isn't lopsided enough to translate to a Trump popular vote win. Now that I'm adding it up in my head, it seems like it could come up short.
Did you update the margin by state yet?
I think to get a PV tie or slight Trump edge, you would need to start with CA H20, TX T10, NY H15, FL T13, and so on.
Well, the racist closing message Trump is delivering in MSG now is apparently doing the job for him.
Your Rust Belt predictions are pretty much vibes. "Harris is gonna do worse than Biden because reasons."
Final Senate Predictions
These are quite a bit less ugly than my Presidential predictions....
Arizona--Gallego by 2
California--Schiff by 21
Connecticut--Murphy by 18
Delaware--Blunt Rochester by 19 (tough call with a three-way race)
Florida--Scott by 8
Hawaii--Hirono by 43
Indiana--Banks by 27
Maine--King by 11
Maryland--Alsobrooks by 13
Massachusetts--Warren by 27
Michigan--Slotkin by 2
Minnesota--Klobuchar by 7
Mississippi--Wicker by 25
Missouri--Hawley by 15
Montana--Sheehy by 12
Nebraska-A--Fischer by 14
Nebraska-B--Ricketts by 28
Nevada--Rosen by 3
New Jersey--Kim by 14
New Mexico--Heinrich by 6
New York--Gillibrand by 17
North Dakota--Cramer by 41
Ohio--Moreno by 7
Pennsylvania--Casey by 2
Rhode Island--Whitehouse by 18
Tennessee--Blackburn by 25
Texas--Cruz by 6
Utah--Curtis by 32
Vermont--Sanders by 36
Virginia--Kaine by 13
Washington--Cantwell by 15
West Virginia--Justice by 36
Wisconsin--Baldwin by >1
Wyoming--Barrasso by 40
My predictions have the Democrats down "only" 52-48 in the Senate, limiting losses to the three states where defeat seemed inevitable since 2020. As of now, I'm predicting that Casey, Slotkin, and Baldwin pull it out. If I'm pessimistic on the Presidential numbers, I'd say I'm optimistic on the Senate numbers at this point if the electorate looks like what I fear it will.
You are pessimistic on both. If you add up all the weighted percentages by State for the Presidential election, Trump would be up by about 4-5% head to head now. I don't believe that
Baked in to my predictions is that polling is oversampling educated professionals and undersampling working-class men, including working-class men of color. I think the real wild card this year will be a substantial shift to Trump among black and Hispanic men, and that polling models are missing this. Again, hope I'm wrong.
You are wrong. Now you are moving to hypotheticals
We cannot say in advance that he's "wrong." That should be obvious, and I find it at least a little dumb to have to spell that out on a campaigns and elections site. Of course, you could very well be joking, but we don't hear your voice or see your facial expression, so not getting the joke is on you.
Polling models seem to be much more R+ this cycle than 2020, though? That seems like an effort to correct for their misses. At least to me.
Yeah that could be. I'm not anticipating the polls be as far off as they were in 2020 but if my suspicion about significant Trump growth in the nonwhite vote plays out, that could be the source of a different kind of polling fail.
I’m skeptical, but at least it’s a theory you’ve spelled out sound reasoning on
Considering your general take on the state of the election, almost all of these make sense. More pessimistic than me, but I'm also someone that refuses to make predictions, so....
I think the extent of the Moreno win in Ohio is bad enough that it's like it's coming from a meaningfully worse cycle than the rest of your predictions. Even taking into account a continued trend of split ticket voting disappearing. I'm curious to hear your thoughts on that.
I'd probably be wise to follow your lead and not make predictions, but it's too hard-wired into my competitive nature!
As for Ohio, it's a combination of a decade of polling that almost always badly undersamples Republicans and a realignment so toxic it was one of the few states where Biden did no better than Hillary. And I suspect with Springfield in their backyard and Charleroi just across the border, hostility about immigration is poised to turn rural Ohio into a mirror image of rural Nebraska in terms of party ID.
I'm very competitive most of the time, it's just with politics I find I am unable to sit far enough back to have an objective assessment. I want things to go well, which colors how I go about the whole process.
Trying to suss out where my heart and brain should intersect on elections is too stressful — and too unsuccessful — for me to bother with it. Which is odd as I feel that I generally do a decent to good job of evaluating the state of individual parts of the cycle. I just cannot, with any accuracy, pick out where the die will fall for transforming that into final outcomes.
I find that especially difficult this cycle, too, as so much of the data does not seem to align in any one direction. I'd argue that was also true in 2016 and 2022, and in each cycle there was a modest but very impactful overperformance relative to expectations for one party. And "maybe we do ~2 points better than expectations, but maybe we do ~2 points worse than expectations instead" is not all that helpful!
Thanks for the explanation on Ohio, it makes sense. Hopefully you're wrong!
These all seem pretty reasonable to me, except for Ohio and Arizona. I am leaning towards Moreno winning, but I really don't think he'll win by 7. I Brown will do several points better than Harris, based on polling and what I've been hearing from friends on the ground, and I don't exactly foresee Harris doing significantly worse than Biden. Moreno has also made some not-insignificant missteps that will hurt.
Ultimately, I see Moreno winning by 2-3 points, which saddens me greatly as a former Ohioan.
As for Arizona, unless polling is really off I think Gallego wins by more than 2. He's up very solidly in all the aggregates and Lake is not a candidate who will draw many undecideds to her this late in the game. I can easily see that happening in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania because the Republicans running aren't so odious. Lake lost in a good year for Republicans and underperformed polling while running against a candidate who was not running a strong campaign.
I still have Brown doing five points better than Harris. The problem is I think the bottom is completely falling out in Ohio. Even though the polls are showing a race similar to the 2020 margins, it's hard to shake that the polls in 2016 and 2020 were only in Trump +1 or +2 range.
As for Gallego, I'll acknowledge his significant polling lead has held up all year long. But four years ago, Mark Kelly was running way ahead of Biden in polling but the races converged late. Then again, maybe Gallego is running considerably ahead of Harris with Hispanic men and then accounts for the unusually high gulf the polls keep showing.
You said everyone’s name in your paragraph about AZ except the most important one, Kari Lake. It’s funny how Trump gets away with being a crazy lying idiot but Lake does not. Goes to show how much of a cult MAGA is and also makes me wonder when Trump inevitably goes away. How does the cult continue without its leader? Vance does worry me a bit but the guy is also brand new and his past comments will come up, no doubt.
I hope one of his dipshit sons doesn’t try to run for office. And if they do at least have it to be the good looking one. Ivanka has a couple too many morals so she had to quit the MAGA game.
Yeah I was pondering that very issue about a month ago....why tens of thousands of Arizona voters would be cool with Trump but consider Kari Lake a bridge too far. The most credible explanation, and in keeping with my expectation of significant Hispanic growth for Trump, is that the divide between Trump and Lake is with Hispanic men. Remains to be seen but it's the certainly the most believable explanation.
As for MAGA's future, first of all, we'll see if Trump actually goes away in 2029 if elected. If a sitting President declares it's an "official Presidential act" to fail to accept the outcome of the 2028 election, would there be any standing to remove him based on the Supreme Court's logic? But let's assume he goes away, I think the movement is strong in his absence because there will be no shortage of grievance and backlash to exploit four years from now just as there is today, and if the demand exists, expect the supply to find it's way to meet it in one form or another.
On OH I haven’t seen a poll with Moreno that far ahead. I could see Brown losing, but not by that large a margin.
Brown by 2-4 pts.
Harris by 6.
You mean Trump by 6, right?
Disagree regarding Moreno winning by 7. Brown has been polling better than Tim Ryan did back in 2022.
If that's optimism, what would pessimism look like? I don't even want to know. Interesting that you think polling on OH-Sen and NE-Sen A will be wildly off.
Pessimism would look like Senators David McCormick, Mike Rogers, and Eric Hovde, none of which are out of the question if the turnout model is just a bit more MAGA than what current polls indicate.
Imo the simple fact that NE-SEN is a topic for any discussion should be taken as a huge sign of optimism
Definitely.
I’m not convinced the result will be as close as we hope it will be. A lot of voters don’t understand policy but they do understand when someone is trying to play you.
The two prediction sites I follow predict that Sherrod Brown is slightly more likely to win than his opponent. 538 gives Brown a 55% chance of winning, and Race to the White House gives him a 61% likelihood. I'm wondering why you foresee such a decisive victory for Moreno.
Brown's one of my favorite Senators so I hope I'm wrong. I see a decisive victory for Moreno because polls have been underestimating Republican strength in Ohio in nearly every race in the last 10 years. And while the polls weren't so far off in the Ryan-Vance race in 2022, the comprehensive collapse of the Mahoning Valley makes me question what the arithmetic for a Brown statewide victory can possibly look like. And as I've said elsewhere, the Springfield situation in their backyard seems like a particularly combustible situation for a candidate of Biden's party running in Ohio.
My reason for leaning towards a Moreno victory is bc of undecideds. Brown isn’t over 50% and it’s a safe assumption the undecideds are going to lean red due to the overall lean of the state.
I could see Moreno winning, but a 7 point margin would be astronomical. Vance didn't even beat non-incumbent Ryan by that much...
I probably won't make a full prediction but the way I'm looking at this election is this, if I could ask Trump's campaign managers 1 question and I was guaranteed to get a truthful answer the question I'd ask is: Do you believe that if the 2024 electorate is the 2020 electorate + people who weren't eligible in 2020 do you think Donald Trump can win?
I think the answer would either be it would be very difficult or just flatly no. Trump's media appearances basically fall into 2 categories, the sycophants and the manosphere. I think he does the former to, if you want to be charitable, push his message and if you want to be uncharitable, to get his ego stroked. I think the latter is to reach voters who consume little-to-no traditional media. And I think its because they're trying to turn out people who didn't turn out in 2020 or did turnout in 2020 but are considered unlikely to do so again this year.
You made me think of something with your post; did Trump go on Rogans podcast yet?
I thought it was supposed to be today but I haven't seen anything about it yet
Thanks for the reply👍
he went much longer on Rogan and basically told a bunch of rally attendees in Michigan, sorry I will be 3 hours late because I needed to go on this podcast in Austin in order to win. There are now videos of people streaming out of the rally
Lmao (and not surprising) pure amateur hour not to do Rogan and the rally both with better logistics
One of the first political rallies I remember going to was a John Edwards VP rally in 04 in my hometown of Kenosha and even though Wisconsin is a quintessential swing state, campaigns generally don't go to a place like Kenosha for a rally. Maybe they'll do a tour of a local business but they rarely do actual rallies. And I was tasked with getting names and numbers from people and the vast majority were strong Kerry supporters and a few were undecided but the thing that surprised me most was of the 100 or so people I talked to a handful of Bush supporters were among the group. And they weren't trolls who were there to try to try to derail the speech and go viral (we were still several years before that was a thing), they were there because a VP candidate coming to Kenosha was a rare thing and they wanted to be there.
I bring that up because what was true of Kenosha is probably also true of Traverse City and while the vast majority of the people at the rally are diehard Trump supporters, there were almost definitely some undecided voters and soft Harris supporters as well and I don't think I'm reaching when I say that the people leaving are probably disproportionately in that group.
It's bad optics (especially in the day of Facebook\social media)
Trump really committed a FAIL there. Why not just do Rogan before holding the rally?
He's really losing it.
World Series game1 update; tied 0-0 going into the 5th(imo the pens will decide the outcome)
2-2 in the 9th
One helluva game; I'm thinking extra innings !
This dude Treinen is dealing; but how far can he go?
Ohtani approaching the plate; this is classic
Walkoff!!!! Classic game
The grand slam coming from Freddie Freeman who has a bad ankle is vaguely reminiscent of the Kirk Gibson HR in Game 1 of the 1988 series.
I am glad the game didn't go too late because I will be walking precincts in Lancaster tomorrow morning for George Whitesides in CA-27. Gotta wake up early...
God bless you. Getting rid of the odious Garcia would be sheer delight.
Do you have any sense of how the CA27 race is going?
Classic but not fun for Yankees fans. I hope for better tonight.
And now for something completely different:
Donald Trump Losing 'Core Group' Vital in 3 Battleground States
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polls-non-college-educated-white-1972947
Political analyst Harry Enten's analysis shows Trump is leading nationally among noncollege educated white voters by 27 points, down from 31 points in 2020 and 33 points in 2016.
"That might not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing these double digit gains among Black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that's a rather interesting development," Enten said.
Enten's analysis also revealed that Trump's vote share among noncollege educated white voters is declining in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, with his lead currently standing at 19 points, compared to 22 points in 2020 and 25 points in 2016.
"Trump is ahead, but his margins are smaller," Enten said. "And when you have a shrinking margin for Donald Trump, among his core group that makes up the majority of voters, it can make up for big shifts among smaller groups in the electorate and this is why Kamala Harris is still in the ball game right now."
Video:
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1848359901354996117
Question is whether to buy these kinds of stats. There’s ample reason to doubt Trump has double digit gains with black voters, so I think him sliding to just +27 with WWC should be taken with grain of salt
When you have these groups that go overwhelmingly for one group or another but don't represent a huge part of the electorate it doesn't take a lot to get these types of polling shifts in the crosstabs of polls. You mentioned black voters, I remember there was some polling that showed Romney getting back or getting close to getting back or even getting back to Bush's 11% with black voters. According to the exit polls he was at 6%. But its not hard to see how you can be off by 5% in polling of a group that makes up 13% of the electorate..
But WWC are not a small chunk of the electorate. They’re 40 percent, though the movement of support is small.
If this poll was 1200 people if 7-8 WWC people had answered differently Trump would've been at his 2020 number
One way to look at it: if you buy Harris's loss among voters of color, you ought to buy her gains among the WWC. Both trends come from the same polling sources.
Haha I guess I don’t really buy either, so it works out
I expect Trump to do somewhat better among noncollege white men than in 2020, and somewhat worse among noncollege white women. Not sure of the magnitudes of either, but I would very surprised if the whole group shifted 4 points toward Dems. I think the apparent blue shift among noncollege whites is mostly a polling quirk necessary to counter the unlikely red shift a lot of polls are finding among nonwhites.
Harry Enten: "Harris is doing the best for a Democratic presidential candidate among white women in the 21st century... That's big cause they make up such a large chunk of the electorate."
https://x.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1846214900705644708
As I recall, in 2016 Trump captured 53% of the vote from White women. This time he stands to lose it massively – which he cannot afford to do.
This is what gives me hope...looking at early vote by party ID may be less instructive this year as I think alot of GOP registered women will be crossing over. Or hope anyway...
That was also years before dobbs and before Trump even got a chance to nominate Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.
White women are realizing Trump and Project 2025 are being regressive when it comes to women's rights.
Yes! Not gonna happen this time.
Of course! With abortion being a big factor in elections since dobbs, naturally Trump is toxic to many women.
Dartmouth College poll of New Hampshire voters
President
Harris 58.5%
Trump 37.7%
(Harris +20.8)
Governor
Craig 51.1%
Ayotte 45.5%
(Craig +6.0)
(10/5-10/18 RV)
Well, color me shocked.
let’s poll Dartmouth professors!
Average it with Emerson's +3 poll and you get something a bit more reasonable (and I don't believe the eventual gap between Harris and Craig will be as large as 15 points).
Do we know the sample size?
n=2211
I'd actually question the methodology with that high a sample size in any poll; and I'm definitely questioning the value of a poll the spans 2 weeks
I'm not sure what the issue is with a high sample size - it usually means the confidence bounds are narrower than polls in the hundreds. What's more important is the pollster needs to ensure the sampling is representative. Someone can take a look at the cross-tab and let us know.
Or we can just toss it in the poll pile with the rest of them.
Not if the duration is 2 weeks; not in a fluid political cycle
What makes you think we are in a fluid politicial cycle. 538 suggests there has basivally been no movement nationally since August.
I'm not necessarily saying that the poll is wrong mind you; let's be clear, I'm talking about political polling(not polling in general; there's a difference)
Dartmouth College has no 538 pollster ranking (it's included basically as an 'other');however, perhaps it's possible they know their home state
Hmmm press X to doubt but I admire them for publishing this gargantuan outlier anyways
Once again, not a shocker that Trump will continue the streak of Democrats holding on to NH at the presidential level since 2004.
That race is all about the margins(not about the winner)
Yes, but here's some perspective:
Kelly Ayotte was unseated by Maggie Hassan in 2016 and is running in the NH-GOV race in 2024. If she's polling better than Trump in 2024, that indicates that she's got more appeal than him in the state.
Also, in 2016 NH was won by Clinton by the lowest margin of victory since John Kerry in 2004. The state ended up being won by Biden in 2020 by a margin wider than in 2016.
Popularity of a Democratic candidate in a state like NH does matter.
That’s ridiculous
I live in NH, and there's no way in hell that Harris wins by 20 here.
What concerns me is that Craig is supposedly running 15 points behind Harris. If that actually happens, she's toast. But I am extremely skeptical that the gap will be that big.
I agree Harris won't win by 20 points. However, the margins in the polls suggest she'll win by perhaps larger or at around the same amount Biden won NH back in 2020.
Since you live in NH, do you believe Ayotte has a higher approval rating than Trump? She was unseated by Maggie Hassan in the Senate back in 2016 but as far as I understand is in more of the traditional Republican camp.
IF this poll is accurate (and when has Dartmouth ever been wrong?), it would suggest that the pessimism expressed in this thread may be exaggerated.
Should have established this earlier I guess, but my username didn’t quite port. I was KingSweden on DKE
All hail King Sweden
LOL I did not realize your handle change until yesterday when I fat fingered on mobile your profile. I'm mostly a lurker but glad to officially meet your acquaintance on this new site.
Did you join the Discord? So far I have loved the real-time chat during DNC convention and debate. But I wonder about long-form posts, those may be lost in Discord.
I did not and probably won’t - enough bandwidth spent here and elsewhere for now
I kinda figured, since your posting style was very similar to KingSweden's and the name Henrik sounds Scandinavian.
I'm glad you're back!
didn’t realize I had such a distinct posting style haha. But thank you!
Your posting style is much more chill than most people's.
Ers Majestät, vi hoppas på ett lyckligt val!
I hadn't realized that. Glad you're here!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/ny-republican-anthony-desposito-campaign-spending/index.html
Other than the weird cheating on his wife with someone he hired along with his wife's sister thing, this is probably the final nail in the coffin.
D'esposito's actual campaign spent massive amounts of money ridiculous things including $13,400 at a steakhouse.
Like 13,400… at one time?!
Yup;thinking that's another thing but the mistress on the payroll with possible menage a trois is the killer and another payroll issue of a similar nature to boot(how did dude actually think he wouldn't get caught?)
Yeah all of this and the fact that NY-04 is right next to the seat with the Santos saga. It's hard to see him holding on.
And he's running for re-election in a Lean Blue district. Not the sharpest tool in the shed if you ask me.
Maybe he never planned on winning again.
D'Esposito would probably be better off working in the white collar sector where he could get much better pay and perks than being in politics.
On the other hand, he used to be a NYPD police officer for 14 years from 2006-2020. I'm sure he and NYC Mayor Eric Adams get along just fine.
NEVADA
https://x.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1849990393569439910?t=wJkXgn0hAqv0kyCcMzBeZQ&s=19
This is a great chart that should calm some nerves and calmed mine for sure yall! Visualize the huge mountain of young voters yet to cast a ballot. Hopefully they vote!
On the similar note, the Republicans are reinvesting in the Senate race with their 6 million dollar buy, but days earlier the Congressional committee bailed on all three Vegas seats.
And now Democrats have also pulled their advertisement reservations for the remainder of the election. House Majority PAC will not air anything in Southern Nevada.
Either Democrats are confident or they are triaging Horsford, Lee, and Titus all at the same time. I'd like to believe it was the former! Very strange dynamics at play here with different sides seeing different takes on the Early vote.
Also, Harris will rally in Vegas on Halloween.
It's the opposite of triaging; they think the election for those incumbents are secure
If you are counting on young voters you are losing.
Perhaps Tom but that graph shows that the majority of people who have voted thus far are over 50 which is an age demographic that indisputably favors Rs. I would much prefer better results but there is a strong indication that 18-30+ may go our way.
Not this time. I guarantee you that at least the young women are going to vote!
Remember in NV, the unions do a ton of work on election day including giving folks the day off. Culinary workers in Vegas hotels and restaurants are going to skew young.
Regarding NV,
I'm not exactly sure enough about the young voter base in the state but I can only assume they're predominately based in cities like Las Vegas.
That said, I think the young voter base is certainly greater in states like CA, NY, OR and WA.
43.3% of rural Dems have cast a ballot so far.
42.8% of rural Reps have cast a ballot so far.
How do we know?
Ralston provides the numbers on his blog https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
I think the point is there are more urban Dems who have NOT cast ballots yet.
Gender turnout gap is +14% points in MI, +13 in PA, +12 in GA, +10 in WI, +9 in NC, +4 in AZ, -2 in NV.
It is really bizarre to me that basically what we largely agree is the Democratic base has essentially not even voted yet in Nevada so long after early voting has begun...
It’s been 1 week since early voting started in Nevada October 19. They have until November 1 to vote in person. That is why Harris will be out there on Halloween in Las Vegas to rally early voting. mailed ballot must be received by 11/9/24.
October 31 seems kind of late for a rally to encourage early voting that ends the next day.
This is why it's important to exercise calm as Clark County voting numbers are set to come in later than most county votes.
At least in the context of the Senate race I haven't seen any polls, however flawed polling is now, to indicate Rosen is in any significant trouble.
Agreed. Rosen has consistently led in the polls for some time and isn't exactly considered vulnerable like Catherine Cortez-Masto was.
Also, in 2022 the NV-SEN polls indicated a closer race than what we're seeing here.
The polling averages had Adam Laxalt up by several points.
I've said it before, I'll say it again; the polls always suck in Nevada, then the Reid\Culinary Union machine cranks up its engine(and honestly, this cycle the polls haven't really sucked)
And he barely even lost the Senate election. Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto only won by roughly .77% points, a considerable drop from 2016 when she won the Senate election then to replace Harry Reid.
Watching Iowa and their early voting. Democrats are outvoting Republicans by about 10k votes statewide at the moment and the 1st and 3rd districts have the highest turnout. Harris probably wont win but all the talk about tarriffs may shake some family farmers who saw what Trump’s soybean trade wars did to Iowa’s farmers. Love to see the final Selzer poll
https://www.wowt.com/2024/10/25/election-2024-iowa-early-voting-numbers-so-far-down-tally-seen-2020/?outputType=amp
Winning the 2 congressional seats is good enough; if Harris pulled out that miracle, it's icing on the cake
Hell I’d be jazzed just to claw IA-3 back
Anything out of Iowa is good(Larry Sabato has both seats as Lean R; winning even 1 pretty much gives the Democrats the House assuming swings in competitive districts)
The airwaves on central Iowa TV are chock full of ads for both races. I have no sense of momentum in the IA-03 race or the cluster of competitive suburban legislative races, but I don't feel like Baccam has landed any devastating punches on Nunn. I was surprised Cindy Axne came as close as she did to hanging on in 2022 in what was likely a redder year in Iowa than 2024 will be, however, so this is definitely the race I feel better about of the two.
As for IA-01, I'll be fascinated to see what kind of winning coalition Bohannon could possibly put together given the trendline of that district outside of Johnson County.
Will Selzer break down the poll into district level?
She almost always does and I suspect she will again but she always clarifies there's a high margin of error at the district-level breakdown.
I'd be curious to see how IA fares at the presidential level if it means Harris will lose the state but at a smaller margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020.