I decided to look at the Massachusetts results by town and compare the Presidential and Senate results. Overall Warren underperformed Harris by about 5.5%. (Harris got 1.5% more support than Warren, while Trump got 4% less than Dalton.) However, there was a striking difference in this margin from town to town. Overall Warren did much better in the working class and Hispanic areas, while Harris did much better in the bastions of wealth and privilege.
I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Likewise, limiting myself to one unpleasant surprise per state was also beyond my capabilities in many states. My lists are a little less structured this year but I suspect you'll recognize the format.
Pleasant Surprises
Madison County, Alabama--Even as Alabama's PVI took a sharp right turn, its second largest county (I hadn't realized till now it surpassed Mobile County) barely moved and remained a single-digit Trump county. Given its demographics, I can foresee this county flipping in a strong Democratic cycle.
Saline County, Arkansas--Not sure if its increasing racial diversity or college-educated demographics, but this suburban Little Rock county was the Natural State's only county to shift in Harris's direction since 2020.
Mesa County, Colorado--Western Colorado's blue shift was a nice development overall, led by this population center. If Lauren Boebert had tried to win again in CO-03, I bet Adam Frisch would have beaten her this year.
Larimer County, Colorado--Heavily Hispanic jurisdictions swung to the right this year in Colorado as everywhere else, but at least in Colorado, it was largely offset by numerous population centers like the Fort Collins area with smaller Hispanic populations that trended blue.
Kent County, Delaware--We all remember Christine O'Donnell's 2010 Senate race as a national joke, but she still managed to win the county that's home to Delaware's capital city, which was a tough nut to crack back then. Fast forward to 2024 and Harris, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Sarah McBride, and Matt Meyer all pulled off victories here.
Cobb County, Georgia--If you go back only 10 years, it would have been hard to imagine that the suburban Atlanta county that was home to Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district would not only go for the Democratic Presidential nominee by double digits, but that it would be one of a small percentage of counties nationally that moved toward the Democrats in a difficult cycle.
Paulding County, Georgia--The western suburbs of Atlanta moved the most toward Harris this year, and while this one is still quite red, I don't think it's out of the question that it could flip blue by 2032 given its trendline.
Jackson County, Illinois--After a collapse for Biden in 2020, I figured the home of Carbondale would be a goner in 2024, easily flipping to Trump. Surprisingly, it got a full point bluer.
Hamilton County, Indiana--I know we were all hoping that Indianapolis' most populous suburban county would flip this year but it still moved toward Harris (along with neighboring Boone and Hendricks counties) in a year when not many places did.
Johnson County, Kansas--Again, we all hoped we'd see 2022 Sharice Davids numbers at the Presidential level this year, but the Sunflower State's most populous county still did its part and consolidated more moderate Republicans toward Harris compared to four years ago.
Sagadahoc County, Maine--Coastal Maine held up pretty well for Harris this year, which was less the case in upper New England than I expected. Sagadahoc was one of two counties to perform better for Harris than for Biden, and with or without Susan Collins on the ballot, we'll need it in two years.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland--It wasn't that long ago when this used to be bright red, holding out even for Bob Dole and John McCain. Not only did it go for Harris by double-digits this year, it's also the population core for a Democrat-held Congressional seat in MD-03.
Ottawa County, Michigan--The core of Michigan's Dutch Calvinist population, Ottawa County was the state's most Republican county for decades. It's still pretty bright red but it was the only population center in Michigan trending against Republicans in 2024.
Hennepin County, Minnesota--The city of Minneapolis and three rings of its western suburbs all held nearly as tight for Harris as they did for Biden four years ago, again offsetting Minnesota's red realignment outside of the metro area.
Sarpy County, Nebraska--While it didn't move enough to dump Don Bacon, it was one of four Nebraska counties to go for shadow Democrat Dan Osborn in the Senate race, making it clear that any potential winning Democratic coalition put together in Nebraska would almost certainly include Sarpy County.
Burlington County, New Jersey--In a state that was a dumpster fire for Democrats this year, Burlington County didn't slip as much as most places for Harris and native son Andy Kim improved upon Menendez's winning margin six years ago.
Los Alamos County, New Mexico--I'm guessing federal employment at the National Laboratory is driving the city/county's blue shift, but it's striking that we're now winning nearly 2-1 in a place that George W. Bush won twice.
Transylvania County, North Carolina--Perhaps the flooding disaster significantly reduced turnout among the more rural jurisdictions of western North Carolina, but I was still surprised to see the region trended toward Harris compared to four years ago. This county in particular was the most surprising to see in the Josh Stein column.
Montgomery County, Ohio--Even as one industrial city after another in the Buckeye State collapses for Democrats, the party keeps managing to hang on in the Dayton area with another narrow win for Harris after a narrow win for Biden four years ago.
Deschutes County, Oregon--Very quickly went from a McCain-Romney county to a double-digit Harris county.
Erie County, Pennsylvania--Given the horrific trendline of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, I figured we'd do quite a bit worse here. Harris didn't win, but Casey pulled it out, which is better than I expected.
Presidio County, Texas--What's their secret? Nearly every RGV border county shifted double digits toward Trump, with the majority of the counties flipping outright. Presidio County shifted only 2 points toward Trump and still went nearly 2-1 Biden.
Utah County, Utah--Even though it's still more than 2-1 Trump, the home of Brigham Young University once again trended toward Harris even as the country (and to a lesser extent the state) trended toward Trump.
Chesterfield County, Virginia--One of the few unambiguously positive developments of this election cycle was the continued blue shift in the Richmond area, helping to offset the unexpected contraction of Democratic support in northern Virginia.
Clark County, Washington--It took a while for Portland's political influence to be felt on the Washington side of the river but we're finally starting to see sustained Democratic improvement in the Vancouver area, so much so that we've nailed down a difficult House seat two cycles in a row.
Clallam County, Washington--One of the counties that has long been a Presidential bellwether breaks its tradition and goes Democrat when the nation goes Republican.
Door County, Wisconsin--The other county often cited as a Presidential bellwether also stays in the Democratic column as the nation goes the other direction.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin--The Harris campaign massively overestimated the number of NeverTrump Republican votes that hadn't already flipped to Biden four years ago, but I suppose given how Republican it was compared to other demographically similar suburban areas elsewhere in the country, it makes some degree of sense that suburban Milwaukee was one of the few places on the map where Harris actually found some more Trump-skeptical Republicans.
I decided to look at the Massachusetts results by town and compare the Presidential and Senate results. Overall Warren underperformed Harris by about 5.5%. (Harris got 1.5% more support than Warren, while Trump got 4% less than Dalton.) However, there was a striking difference in this margin from town to town. Overall Warren did much better in the working class and Hispanic areas, while Harris did much better in the bastions of wealth and privilege.
Top Warren overperformances:
Lawrence – 23.1%
Revere – 9.1%
Chelsea – 8.5%
Everett – 8.1%
Lynn – 7.1%
Fall River – 5.7%
New Bedford – 5.6%
Lowell – 5.3%
Springfield – 5.2%
North Adams – 3.9%
Top Harris overperformances:
Dover – 24.3%
Weston – 21.6%
Wellesley – 21.6%
Sherborn – 21.6%
Cohasset – 21.0%
Medfield – 19.4%
Hingham – 18.9%
Gosnold – 18.6%
Wenham – 17.7%
Manchester-by-the-Sea – 17.5%
I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Likewise, limiting myself to one unpleasant surprise per state was also beyond my capabilities in many states. My lists are a little less structured this year but I suspect you'll recognize the format.
Pleasant Surprises
Madison County, Alabama--Even as Alabama's PVI took a sharp right turn, its second largest county (I hadn't realized till now it surpassed Mobile County) barely moved and remained a single-digit Trump county. Given its demographics, I can foresee this county flipping in a strong Democratic cycle.
Saline County, Arkansas--Not sure if its increasing racial diversity or college-educated demographics, but this suburban Little Rock county was the Natural State's only county to shift in Harris's direction since 2020.
Mesa County, Colorado--Western Colorado's blue shift was a nice development overall, led by this population center. If Lauren Boebert had tried to win again in CO-03, I bet Adam Frisch would have beaten her this year.
Larimer County, Colorado--Heavily Hispanic jurisdictions swung to the right this year in Colorado as everywhere else, but at least in Colorado, it was largely offset by numerous population centers like the Fort Collins area with smaller Hispanic populations that trended blue.
Kent County, Delaware--We all remember Christine O'Donnell's 2010 Senate race as a national joke, but she still managed to win the county that's home to Delaware's capital city, which was a tough nut to crack back then. Fast forward to 2024 and Harris, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Sarah McBride, and Matt Meyer all pulled off victories here.
Cobb County, Georgia--If you go back only 10 years, it would have been hard to imagine that the suburban Atlanta county that was home to Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district would not only go for the Democratic Presidential nominee by double digits, but that it would be one of a small percentage of counties nationally that moved toward the Democrats in a difficult cycle.
Paulding County, Georgia--The western suburbs of Atlanta moved the most toward Harris this year, and while this one is still quite red, I don't think it's out of the question that it could flip blue by 2032 given its trendline.
Jackson County, Illinois--After a collapse for Biden in 2020, I figured the home of Carbondale would be a goner in 2024, easily flipping to Trump. Surprisingly, it got a full point bluer.
Hamilton County, Indiana--I know we were all hoping that Indianapolis' most populous suburban county would flip this year but it still moved toward Harris (along with neighboring Boone and Hendricks counties) in a year when not many places did.
Johnson County, Kansas--Again, we all hoped we'd see 2022 Sharice Davids numbers at the Presidential level this year, but the Sunflower State's most populous county still did its part and consolidated more moderate Republicans toward Harris compared to four years ago.
Sagadahoc County, Maine--Coastal Maine held up pretty well for Harris this year, which was less the case in upper New England than I expected. Sagadahoc was one of two counties to perform better for Harris than for Biden, and with or without Susan Collins on the ballot, we'll need it in two years.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland--It wasn't that long ago when this used to be bright red, holding out even for Bob Dole and John McCain. Not only did it go for Harris by double-digits this year, it's also the population core for a Democrat-held Congressional seat in MD-03.
Ottawa County, Michigan--The core of Michigan's Dutch Calvinist population, Ottawa County was the state's most Republican county for decades. It's still pretty bright red but it was the only population center in Michigan trending against Republicans in 2024.
Hennepin County, Minnesota--The city of Minneapolis and three rings of its western suburbs all held nearly as tight for Harris as they did for Biden four years ago, again offsetting Minnesota's red realignment outside of the metro area.
Sarpy County, Nebraska--While it didn't move enough to dump Don Bacon, it was one of four Nebraska counties to go for shadow Democrat Dan Osborn in the Senate race, making it clear that any potential winning Democratic coalition put together in Nebraska would almost certainly include Sarpy County.
Burlington County, New Jersey--In a state that was a dumpster fire for Democrats this year, Burlington County didn't slip as much as most places for Harris and native son Andy Kim improved upon Menendez's winning margin six years ago.
Los Alamos County, New Mexico--I'm guessing federal employment at the National Laboratory is driving the city/county's blue shift, but it's striking that we're now winning nearly 2-1 in a place that George W. Bush won twice.
Transylvania County, North Carolina--Perhaps the flooding disaster significantly reduced turnout among the more rural jurisdictions of western North Carolina, but I was still surprised to see the region trended toward Harris compared to four years ago. This county in particular was the most surprising to see in the Josh Stein column.
Montgomery County, Ohio--Even as one industrial city after another in the Buckeye State collapses for Democrats, the party keeps managing to hang on in the Dayton area with another narrow win for Harris after a narrow win for Biden four years ago.
Deschutes County, Oregon--Very quickly went from a McCain-Romney county to a double-digit Harris county.
Erie County, Pennsylvania--Given the horrific trendline of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, I figured we'd do quite a bit worse here. Harris didn't win, but Casey pulled it out, which is better than I expected.
Presidio County, Texas--What's their secret? Nearly every RGV border county shifted double digits toward Trump, with the majority of the counties flipping outright. Presidio County shifted only 2 points toward Trump and still went nearly 2-1 Biden.
Utah County, Utah--Even though it's still more than 2-1 Trump, the home of Brigham Young University once again trended toward Harris even as the country (and to a lesser extent the state) trended toward Trump.
Chesterfield County, Virginia--One of the few unambiguously positive developments of this election cycle was the continued blue shift in the Richmond area, helping to offset the unexpected contraction of Democratic support in northern Virginia.
Clark County, Washington--It took a while for Portland's political influence to be felt on the Washington side of the river but we're finally starting to see sustained Democratic improvement in the Vancouver area, so much so that we've nailed down a difficult House seat two cycles in a row.
Clallam County, Washington--One of the counties that has long been a Presidential bellwether breaks its tradition and goes Democrat when the nation goes Republican.
Door County, Wisconsin--The other county often cited as a Presidential bellwether also stays in the Democratic column as the nation goes the other direction.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin--The Harris campaign massively overestimated the number of NeverTrump Republican votes that hadn't already flipped to Biden four years ago, but I suppose given how Republican it was compared to other demographically similar suburban areas elsewhere in the country, it makes some degree of sense that suburban Milwaukee was one of the few places on the map where Harris actually found some more Trump-skeptical Republicans.