Apache County, Arizona--As badly as Democrats were rebuked by Hispanic voters this year, it appears based on county-level reports that they also took it on the chin with indigenous voters, with one of the clearest examples coming from this key swing state.
Yuma County, Arizona--Hillary came within a couple points of…
Apache County, Arizona--As badly as Democrats were rebuked by Hispanic voters this year, it appears based on county-level reports that they also took it on the chin with indigenous voters, with one of the clearest examples coming from this key swing state.
Yuma County, Arizona--Hillary came within a couple points of victory here in 2016. Eight years later, Trump +20. I'm sure there will be plenty who will insist until till their last breath that it had nothing to do with the border though just as they insisted when we saw the first big GOP shift in border counties four years ago.
Mississippi County, Arkansas--Long-time Yellow Dog Democrat stronghold with large black population that was a two-time near miss for Obama. Nearly 2-1 for Trump in 2024, exemplifying the magnitude of Democrats' problems in Arkansas. Not sure if black voters are leaving, realigning, or not showing up in disproportionate numbers for things to have gotten this bad. Perhaps a combination of the three.
Imperial County, California--Right up there with Webb County, TX, in the competition for the biggest Democratic collapse in the country among counties with a population of more than 50,000. It went from a 20+ point Biden win to an outright Trump victory in only four years.
San Bernardino County, California--Twenty years of Democratic progress in the Inland Empire erased in one cycle. Goes from a double-digit Biden win in 2020 to a 2024 Trump victory.
San Joaquin County, California--The first Central Valley county to flip blue (Jerry McNerney flipped the seat in 2006) also shifts double-digits toward the GOP for both Trump and Garvey. Kind of amazing House Democrats held up so well in California given the collapse at the top of the ticket.
Adams County, Colorado--Two regions of Colorado shifted to the right in 2024. The first was the rural southern part of the state. The second was the northeastern part of the Denver metro area. Both are heavily Hispanic. The shift to the GOP could possibly have cost us a House seat in CO-03. The shift to the GOP definitely cost us a House seat in CO-08.
New Haven County, Connecticut--Whenever I make predictions for Connecticut, I fail to take into account the large Puerto Rican population. I'm guessing they played a large role in the state's underperformance, and in this part of Connecticut specifically.
Miami-Dade County, Florida-- From a 30-point Hillary win in 2016 to an 11-point Trump win in 2024. Has there ever been this big of a partisan shift in this short of a time from an area with this large of a population at any time in American history?
Palm Beach County, Florida--When it comes to House incumbents in the Sunshine State in danger of losing their seats moving forward, I would say the most vulnerable are not Republicans, but the three Democrats in previously deep blue Jewish strongholds. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz all prevailed by single-digit margins this year. We'll see if any of them are still in Congress after four more years of unfriendly demographic shifts.
Duval County, Florida--Four years ago, I'd hoped that the Jacksonville area would cancel out some of the Republican gains elsewhere in the state, but they flipped back to Trump this year too.
Lowndes County, Georgia--The closer you got to the Florida state line, the worse the Democratic numbers were compared to four years ago. The Valdosta area has been locked in place with the same modest GOP advantage for two generations now.
Latah County, Idaho--I didn't see this one coming. The home to the University of Idaho had been trending Democrat for a few cycles but swung hard the other direction this year, giving Trump an 8-point win.
Henderson County, Illinois--We're a generation removed from double-digit Democratic wins for Gore and Kerry in this small rural county across the Mississippi River from Burlington, Iowa. This year it went for Trump by nearly 40 (!) points. It's an extreme reminder that without Chicagoland, Illinois would be in as bad of shape for the Democrats as Iowa.
Lake County, Indiana--Holy hell! What's going on in northwestern Indiana?!? I was caught off balance when Biden won by "only" 13 points in the home of Gary. Four years later, Harris only wins by 5. All of northwest Indiana is a dumpster fire for Democrats, canceling out the gains in metropolitan Indianapolis and then some. Frank Mrvan is probably living on borrowed time. Any idea what's going on here? Demographic changes with black flight and white exurban growth?
Clinton County, Iowa--The Mississippi River Valley counties that were all blue in both Obama elections continued to stampede toward the Republicans this year. Clinton County, home of Rita Hart and a mid-sized industrial city, was Obama's second-strongest Iowa county in 2012 with a 20+ point win. Twelve years later, Trump won by nearly 20 points.
Sedgwick County, Kansas--All of the attention regarding the realignment of moderate Republicans in the Sunflower State tends to be in the Kansas City area, but Laura Kelly's gubernatorial victories wouldn't have happened if she hadn't also flipped Wichita. But it remains stubbornly red in federal races, shifting a point further in Trump's direction this year.
Kenton County, Kentucky--After Andy Beshear's 2023 re-election was made possible with substantial help from the conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati, it was reasonable to expect it might be the sort of place shifting anti-MAGA this year. Nothing doing. Every single one of Kentucky's 120 counties was redder than in 2020, including those that are home to the Cincinnati suburbs.
Cameron Parish, Louisiana--The coastal parish that's most representative of Louisiana Cajun country went twice for Bill Clinton and voted for Mary Landrieu as recently as 2008. Fast forward to 2024 and Donald Trump won the place with an eye-popping 93% of the vote. That's gotta make it the reddest "county" in the nation that ever voted for Bill Clinton.
St. James Parish, Louisiana--Over the last several cycles, one parish after another in the Mississippi Delta has been flipping red. Three more did this year in the Pelican State, including this one. Is black flight really that substantial there or is it just really low turnout among black voters?
Kennebec County, Maine--A generation ago, the counties that were home to Augusta, Lewiston, Waterville, and Auburn frequently went bluer than anywhere in coastal Maine. That's decidedly not the case anymore. Androscoggin County went Trump four years ago and Kennebec County joined them in 2024.
Bristol County, Massachusetts--Gore won this working-class enclave by more than 2-1 in 2000. Democratic support has been steadily plummeting since and held out for Harris by only 1 point in 2024. No Republican has won a single Massachusetts county in a Presidential election since 1988, but I bet Bristol County ends the streak in 2028.
Eaton County, Michigan--Part of the Lansing metro area, this county seems like it should be realigning in the Democratic column, but this year it voted against Harris, voted against their sitting Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin in her bid for the Senate, and voted for a Republican House member to replace Slotkin.
Macomb County, Michigan--Fifteen years after Democrats bailed out the U.S. auto industry from annihilation and 12 years after the Republicans ran a nominee for President vowing to "let Detroit go bankrupt", the county most associated with autoworkers rewards the party that saved their industry by giving Trump a 14-point win.
Blue Earth County, Minnesota--The hometown of Tim Walz seemed to go out of its way to humiliate him last month. In nearly 20 years of past elections with Walz on the ballot, Mankato delivered with above-average numbers for him. I'm truly at a loss as to what went so wrong here.
Marshall County, Mississippi--Technically not part of the Delta, I'm guessing this northern Mississippi county had more whites voting Democrat than most places in the Magnolia State back when it was going 60% Democrat not so long ago. It officially flipped to Trump this year after several cycles of accelerating decline. Not sure if it's Yellow Dog Democrats realigning or exurban sprawl from Memphis driving this fast change.
Jefferson County, Missouri--The southern St. Louis suburbs that were the core of Dick Gephardt's Congressional district went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, with Kerry only narrowly missing a win in 2004. Fast forward to 2024 and the county went 67-31 for Trump and 62-35 for Hawley. Not sure of the demographics here but am assuming they're comparable to Macomb County, Michigan, much more blue-collar than most modern suburbs.
Big Horn County, Montana--The home of the Crow Indian Reservation swung hard to the right and flipped to both Trump and Gianforte. But in a rare example of major ticket splitting, Jon Tester won it with 63% of the vote.
Clark County, Nevada--RIP Reid Machine. We had some great times together. Even in victory, Jacky Rosen did a point worse in Clark County than Joe Biden did four years ago, and Biden's win was considered uncomfortably close at the time. With no Senate race in 2026, I'll be curious to see if turnout is good enough to save the three House Democrats here.
Cheshire County, New Hampshire--The Granite State's bluest county not so long ago took a pretty decisive shift to the right this year. Harris won by a cool 10 points and Joyce Craig prevailed by an even cooler-yet 1 point. I expected a different election from northern New England this year.
Passaic County, New Jersey--There are quite a few localized examples of astonishing Hispanic collapse for Democrats in 2024. Many of them were pretty predictable, but I doubt the home of Paterson, New Jersey, flipping to Trump was on anybody's BINGO card this year.
Hudson County, New Jersey--Locals are gonna have to let me know if they think the congestion pricing debate fueled North Jersey's stampede to Trump even more than general Hispanic malaise and exhaustion with corruption by local Democratic incumbents.
San Miguel County, New Mexico--Unsurprisingly, the most heavily Hispanic rural counties of New Mexico collapsed for Democrats this year. I'm a bit surprised it was substantially less tangible in Albuquerque.
Queens County, New York--New York City's second-largest borough swung double-digits to Trump, giving Harris the wimpiest margin of any Presidential nominee since Michael Dukakis despite overwhelming and presumably Democrat-friendly demographic change since 1988.
Nassau County, New York--Speaking of Michael Dukakis, he was the last Democratic Presidential nominee to lose Nassau County on Long Island until Kamala Harris came around. Kirsten Gillibrand wasn't even able to hold off Michael Sapraicone here in the Senate race!
St. Lawrence County, New York--From the bottom of the Empire State to the top of it, here's another place that had been friendly to Democrats through the Clinton, Bush, and Obama years that has completely collapsed in the Elise Stefanik/Donald Trump years. They gave Trump an 18-point win and high single digits for Sapraicone.
Robeson County, North Carolina--I'd been witness to southeastern North Carolina's realignment for the last few cycles but will admit to being surprised that they're so far gone that even Mark Robinson was capable of a 13-point win in the land of Lumbees.
Union County, North Carolina--The fast-growing exurbs east of Charlotte seemed like a place ripe for a Democratic shift, but they shifted toward Trump, giving him over 60% of the vote, and gave Robinson a decisive win as well.
Pasquotank County, North Carolina--Rural northeastern North Carolina has been collapsing for Democrats about as badly as southeastern NC, but Elizabeth City is home to a black college and they still flipped to Trump and only barely held off Robinson. What's up with that?
Cass County, North Dakota--After a strong Heidi Heitkamp showing in 2018 and Biden coming within 3 points of victory two years later, it seemed like the Fargo area was poised to flip blue and not look back....at least until it swung back to a high-single-digit Trump win in 2024.
Stark County, Ohio--By now, I think we've come to terms with the fact that the Mahoning Valley is gone, but there are so many additional problem areas in Ohio. The county that was held up as Ohio's bellwether in the Bush and Obama years is....not such a bellwether anymore. Trump won it by 22 points and Moreno won it by 13 points.
Erie County, Ohio--Key to the Obama and Sherrod Brown coalitions in the Ohio of yesteryear was outright victory or diminished GOP margins in smaller industrial cities. In 2024, the long-time leanings of the Sandusky area shifted to a 14-point win for Trump, a 4-point win for Moreno and, most stunningly, a 6-point win for Derek Merrin over Marcy Kaptur!
Scioto County, Ohio--Another burned-out industrial area at the bottom of Ohio that never went for Gore, Kerry, or Obama, but none of those Democrats ever lost it by more than 5 points. Sherrod Brown won it twice in the past. How did they fare in 2024? Trump won it by 48 points and Moreno won it by 38 points.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania--Given how blue this county had become since the Bush years, it wasn't on my radar that it might flip back to Trump this year despite my overall bearishness about the Keystone State. It did flip though, with their Democratic Congressman being washed away in the red tide. Does the Stroudsburg area have a large Hispanic population?
Northampton County, Pennsylvania--When asked in October how I thought Northampton County would go this year, I predicted they'd split between Trump and Casey. I was half right, but wasn't pessimistic enough as David McCormick managed to beat Casey here too. And while they narrowly voted for Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild, it wasn't by enough to keep her in Congress.
Providence County, Rhode Island--Not that long ago, the Ocean State's most populous county was the key driver of the state's dark hue of Democratic blue. Now it lags the state average, with its population of Hispanics and ethnic whites increasingly receptive to the MAGA message.
Jasper County, South Carolina--Is it collapsing black population or an influx of wealthy whites buying coastal property driving the state's southernmost county so rapidly toward Republicans? It flipped and flipped hard this year, going from a 1-point Biden win in 2020 to a nearly 10-point Trump win in 2024.
Marion County, South Carolina--On the other side of South Carolina, the intense realignment to the GOP in the Lumberton-Rockingham region of North Carolina has not spared its neighbors on the other side of the state line. Biden won this county by more than 20 points. Harris by only 10. And its smaller neighboring counties like Dillon and Marlboro have either flipped entirely or most likely will next cycle.
Deuel County, South Dakota--The Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle coalitions of the Bush years are long gone, particularly the farm counties along the I-29 corridor. Most striking is this county bordering the heart of Minnesota's equally comatose Farmer-Labor region. Donald Trump got 75% of the vote here this year.
Hardeman County, Tennessee--The last majority-white county of rural Tennessee to flip was this county in the southwest part of the state, going red the first time Trump was on the ballot. This year, the third time Trump was on the ballot, he won this two-time Obama county by more than 24 points. Marsha Blackburn won by 27 points.
Webb County, Texas--Obviously, the Lone Star State could have 50 entries on this list, but it's hard to top the Laredo area swinging from a 23-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Henry Cuellar still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Hidalgo County, Texas--Perhaps the only Texas result more striking than the Democratic collapse in Webb County is a short distance down the Rio Grande River where another county with triple its population swung from a 17-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Vicente Gonzalez still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Orleans County, Vermont--The Green Mountain State certainly has a long way to go to revert back to its days as the bedrock stronghold of the Republican Party, but at least as it applies to Vermont's counties hugging the Canadian border, the reversion is well underway, flipping to Trump this year.
Loudoun County, Virginia--Remember the first "oh shit" moment you had on the evening of November 5, 2024, when it was undeniable that a night from hell was forthcoming? If you're like me, it was when Loudoun County was 100% reported and had shifted 8 points toward Trump compared to four years ago. Tim Kaine's numbers were way down too, above and beyond the inexplicable decline in the rest of northern Virginia.
Lafayette County, Wisconsin--Another terrible year for the counties in Wisconsin's Driftless Region just as is the case in the rest of the Midwestern Mississippi River Valley. The county that collapsed the hardest touches counties with Dane County. It went for Trump by 20 points and Eric Hovde by 12 points.
I think it's resolved now. I tried to post the whole thing as one comment but it said it was too large. Then I had to scramble to chop it up and it was a mess. I think now there's three posts but all different with no duplicates.
Locally I would add Pitkin, Eagle to the dissapointing counties, Still strong Dem performances but 5-7 point swings to the right. The low population south central CO counties you briefly mentioned Saguache, Conejos, Alamosa Costello and to a lesser extent Pueblo county all zoomed to the right, Saguache almost flipped. Most of these counties do not have too many people so it didn't move the needle statewide much.
Overperformance: Chaffee County, Harris won 55-42, Trump carried it 47-43 in 16.
Chaffee, Ouray, and San Juan have really exploded in Democrats' direction in the last few cycles. Presumably being inundated with demographics similar to Pitkin, Summit, Eagle, and San Miguel I presume.
All counties along NC coast, are getting less rural in nature. A lot of new comers there. When you pick out the shift in declining rural east NC, you go further inland coastal plains. Halifax, Edgecombe, Nash, etc. even Pitt county with ECU sitting there. Each has less total votes than 4 years ago.
On the booming coast, Even in Brunswick county on the other end of the coast, which showed a slight shift BLUE in percentage, Harris lost a whole lot more votes than Biden 4 years ago.
BTW, back in DKE days I mentioned the TWO coasts of North Carolina, the uplifting bluffs around Wilmington to SC, and the gradually sinking swampier OBX (or their population centers IBX). It seems the new retirees flowing there are different as well. Those to Wilmington areas are much more in the middle leaning slightly red, showing as a lot of NPA new registrations. Those to OBX are adding almost purely R registrations.
BTW, rural places in SC as a whole, had even bigger shift than the rural east in NC. It is just not in a battleground and less noted.
Used to be 2/3 of the R edge in SC are from 6 upstate counties along I85. Democrats are behind in other urban/suburban places, Lowcountry, Myrtle, Augusta and Charlotte exurbs, and slightly ahead in Columbia urban area, adding to the other 1/3. Rural small town SC which is only a bit over 1/4 of the state was almost always in parity, with a lot of Black voters.
This year, Harris didn’t lose Upstate much worse. But the deficits were only about half of the whole state. Slides a bit in other urban areas. The biggest drop from rural SC. Lost some 10pt, close to 65000 vote margin.
NC’s inner coastal plains are about twice this size. It only moved about 45000 vote margin. The whole GA “rural” moved about 70000 votes, that is including a lot of northern counties and coasts with significant inflows, which made them much less “rural” nature as the case of NC coasts.
Literally talking about the group of voters, the older ones among them saved Biden’s flailing 2020 primary campaign, and most of them came out in the general again in large numbers for him and Harrison.
Yet 4 years later, a 10pt margin means about 10% or more supposedly most loyal D voters just sat out.
I figured lethargic black turnout was perhaps the biggest issue as to why Trump had the best showing in South Carolina since George W. Bush in 1988....with the same probably true in Mississippi as well. On the other hand, I seem to recall reading that South Carolina was the only state to get "more white" during the last census.
I think SC and FL are the two with a significant increase of non Hispanic White population. Given FL is much larger and diverse, not surprised SC is the only one getting Whiter.
There were some counties with bad trends where I was surprised that they weren't even worse. I think the border issue hurt Harris in Arizona, but I didn't expect Pima and Cochise to have among the smallest red shifts. Dem numbers also largely collapsed in rez counties as they generally did in poorer areas nationwide (presumably mostly due to inflation) but Menominee county WI shifted less than 3 points toward Trump compared to about 6 nationally.
While things have gone to hell for Democrats in Madison County since the 2000s, Harris actually did a tick better than Biden did there four years ago. There weren't too many places in Illinois where that was the case this year.
True, but still nice to see the continued Democratic improvement in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal), which is now bluer than Peoria or Winnebago counties. And interesting that this was finally the election where Dems break 60% in Champaign County.
Biggest Disappointments
Apache County, Arizona--As badly as Democrats were rebuked by Hispanic voters this year, it appears based on county-level reports that they also took it on the chin with indigenous voters, with one of the clearest examples coming from this key swing state.
Yuma County, Arizona--Hillary came within a couple points of victory here in 2016. Eight years later, Trump +20. I'm sure there will be plenty who will insist until till their last breath that it had nothing to do with the border though just as they insisted when we saw the first big GOP shift in border counties four years ago.
Mississippi County, Arkansas--Long-time Yellow Dog Democrat stronghold with large black population that was a two-time near miss for Obama. Nearly 2-1 for Trump in 2024, exemplifying the magnitude of Democrats' problems in Arkansas. Not sure if black voters are leaving, realigning, or not showing up in disproportionate numbers for things to have gotten this bad. Perhaps a combination of the three.
Imperial County, California--Right up there with Webb County, TX, in the competition for the biggest Democratic collapse in the country among counties with a population of more than 50,000. It went from a 20+ point Biden win to an outright Trump victory in only four years.
San Bernardino County, California--Twenty years of Democratic progress in the Inland Empire erased in one cycle. Goes from a double-digit Biden win in 2020 to a 2024 Trump victory.
San Joaquin County, California--The first Central Valley county to flip blue (Jerry McNerney flipped the seat in 2006) also shifts double-digits toward the GOP for both Trump and Garvey. Kind of amazing House Democrats held up so well in California given the collapse at the top of the ticket.
Adams County, Colorado--Two regions of Colorado shifted to the right in 2024. The first was the rural southern part of the state. The second was the northeastern part of the Denver metro area. Both are heavily Hispanic. The shift to the GOP could possibly have cost us a House seat in CO-03. The shift to the GOP definitely cost us a House seat in CO-08.
New Haven County, Connecticut--Whenever I make predictions for Connecticut, I fail to take into account the large Puerto Rican population. I'm guessing they played a large role in the state's underperformance, and in this part of Connecticut specifically.
Miami-Dade County, Florida-- From a 30-point Hillary win in 2016 to an 11-point Trump win in 2024. Has there ever been this big of a partisan shift in this short of a time from an area with this large of a population at any time in American history?
Palm Beach County, Florida--When it comes to House incumbents in the Sunshine State in danger of losing their seats moving forward, I would say the most vulnerable are not Republicans, but the three Democrats in previously deep blue Jewish strongholds. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz all prevailed by single-digit margins this year. We'll see if any of them are still in Congress after four more years of unfriendly demographic shifts.
Duval County, Florida--Four years ago, I'd hoped that the Jacksonville area would cancel out some of the Republican gains elsewhere in the state, but they flipped back to Trump this year too.
Lowndes County, Georgia--The closer you got to the Florida state line, the worse the Democratic numbers were compared to four years ago. The Valdosta area has been locked in place with the same modest GOP advantage for two generations now.
Latah County, Idaho--I didn't see this one coming. The home to the University of Idaho had been trending Democrat for a few cycles but swung hard the other direction this year, giving Trump an 8-point win.
Henderson County, Illinois--We're a generation removed from double-digit Democratic wins for Gore and Kerry in this small rural county across the Mississippi River from Burlington, Iowa. This year it went for Trump by nearly 40 (!) points. It's an extreme reminder that without Chicagoland, Illinois would be in as bad of shape for the Democrats as Iowa.
Lake County, Indiana--Holy hell! What's going on in northwestern Indiana?!? I was caught off balance when Biden won by "only" 13 points in the home of Gary. Four years later, Harris only wins by 5. All of northwest Indiana is a dumpster fire for Democrats, canceling out the gains in metropolitan Indianapolis and then some. Frank Mrvan is probably living on borrowed time. Any idea what's going on here? Demographic changes with black flight and white exurban growth?
Clinton County, Iowa--The Mississippi River Valley counties that were all blue in both Obama elections continued to stampede toward the Republicans this year. Clinton County, home of Rita Hart and a mid-sized industrial city, was Obama's second-strongest Iowa county in 2012 with a 20+ point win. Twelve years later, Trump won by nearly 20 points.
Sedgwick County, Kansas--All of the attention regarding the realignment of moderate Republicans in the Sunflower State tends to be in the Kansas City area, but Laura Kelly's gubernatorial victories wouldn't have happened if she hadn't also flipped Wichita. But it remains stubbornly red in federal races, shifting a point further in Trump's direction this year.
Kenton County, Kentucky--After Andy Beshear's 2023 re-election was made possible with substantial help from the conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati, it was reasonable to expect it might be the sort of place shifting anti-MAGA this year. Nothing doing. Every single one of Kentucky's 120 counties was redder than in 2020, including those that are home to the Cincinnati suburbs.
Cameron Parish, Louisiana--The coastal parish that's most representative of Louisiana Cajun country went twice for Bill Clinton and voted for Mary Landrieu as recently as 2008. Fast forward to 2024 and Donald Trump won the place with an eye-popping 93% of the vote. That's gotta make it the reddest "county" in the nation that ever voted for Bill Clinton.
St. James Parish, Louisiana--Over the last several cycles, one parish after another in the Mississippi Delta has been flipping red. Three more did this year in the Pelican State, including this one. Is black flight really that substantial there or is it just really low turnout among black voters?
Kennebec County, Maine--A generation ago, the counties that were home to Augusta, Lewiston, Waterville, and Auburn frequently went bluer than anywhere in coastal Maine. That's decidedly not the case anymore. Androscoggin County went Trump four years ago and Kennebec County joined them in 2024.
Bristol County, Massachusetts--Gore won this working-class enclave by more than 2-1 in 2000. Democratic support has been steadily plummeting since and held out for Harris by only 1 point in 2024. No Republican has won a single Massachusetts county in a Presidential election since 1988, but I bet Bristol County ends the streak in 2028.
Eaton County, Michigan--Part of the Lansing metro area, this county seems like it should be realigning in the Democratic column, but this year it voted against Harris, voted against their sitting Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin in her bid for the Senate, and voted for a Republican House member to replace Slotkin.
Macomb County, Michigan--Fifteen years after Democrats bailed out the U.S. auto industry from annihilation and 12 years after the Republicans ran a nominee for President vowing to "let Detroit go bankrupt", the county most associated with autoworkers rewards the party that saved their industry by giving Trump a 14-point win.
Blue Earth County, Minnesota--The hometown of Tim Walz seemed to go out of its way to humiliate him last month. In nearly 20 years of past elections with Walz on the ballot, Mankato delivered with above-average numbers for him. I'm truly at a loss as to what went so wrong here.
Marshall County, Mississippi--Technically not part of the Delta, I'm guessing this northern Mississippi county had more whites voting Democrat than most places in the Magnolia State back when it was going 60% Democrat not so long ago. It officially flipped to Trump this year after several cycles of accelerating decline. Not sure if it's Yellow Dog Democrats realigning or exurban sprawl from Memphis driving this fast change.
Jefferson County, Missouri--The southern St. Louis suburbs that were the core of Dick Gephardt's Congressional district went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, with Kerry only narrowly missing a win in 2004. Fast forward to 2024 and the county went 67-31 for Trump and 62-35 for Hawley. Not sure of the demographics here but am assuming they're comparable to Macomb County, Michigan, much more blue-collar than most modern suburbs.
Big Horn County, Montana--The home of the Crow Indian Reservation swung hard to the right and flipped to both Trump and Gianforte. But in a rare example of major ticket splitting, Jon Tester won it with 63% of the vote.
Clark County, Nevada--RIP Reid Machine. We had some great times together. Even in victory, Jacky Rosen did a point worse in Clark County than Joe Biden did four years ago, and Biden's win was considered uncomfortably close at the time. With no Senate race in 2026, I'll be curious to see if turnout is good enough to save the three House Democrats here.
Cheshire County, New Hampshire--The Granite State's bluest county not so long ago took a pretty decisive shift to the right this year. Harris won by a cool 10 points and Joyce Craig prevailed by an even cooler-yet 1 point. I expected a different election from northern New England this year.
Passaic County, New Jersey--There are quite a few localized examples of astonishing Hispanic collapse for Democrats in 2024. Many of them were pretty predictable, but I doubt the home of Paterson, New Jersey, flipping to Trump was on anybody's BINGO card this year.
Hudson County, New Jersey--Locals are gonna have to let me know if they think the congestion pricing debate fueled North Jersey's stampede to Trump even more than general Hispanic malaise and exhaustion with corruption by local Democratic incumbents.
San Miguel County, New Mexico--Unsurprisingly, the most heavily Hispanic rural counties of New Mexico collapsed for Democrats this year. I'm a bit surprised it was substantially less tangible in Albuquerque.
Queens County, New York--New York City's second-largest borough swung double-digits to Trump, giving Harris the wimpiest margin of any Presidential nominee since Michael Dukakis despite overwhelming and presumably Democrat-friendly demographic change since 1988.
Nassau County, New York--Speaking of Michael Dukakis, he was the last Democratic Presidential nominee to lose Nassau County on Long Island until Kamala Harris came around. Kirsten Gillibrand wasn't even able to hold off Michael Sapraicone here in the Senate race!
St. Lawrence County, New York--From the bottom of the Empire State to the top of it, here's another place that had been friendly to Democrats through the Clinton, Bush, and Obama years that has completely collapsed in the Elise Stefanik/Donald Trump years. They gave Trump an 18-point win and high single digits for Sapraicone.
Robeson County, North Carolina--I'd been witness to southeastern North Carolina's realignment for the last few cycles but will admit to being surprised that they're so far gone that even Mark Robinson was capable of a 13-point win in the land of Lumbees.
Union County, North Carolina--The fast-growing exurbs east of Charlotte seemed like a place ripe for a Democratic shift, but they shifted toward Trump, giving him over 60% of the vote, and gave Robinson a decisive win as well.
Pasquotank County, North Carolina--Rural northeastern North Carolina has been collapsing for Democrats about as badly as southeastern NC, but Elizabeth City is home to a black college and they still flipped to Trump and only barely held off Robinson. What's up with that?
Cass County, North Dakota--After a strong Heidi Heitkamp showing in 2018 and Biden coming within 3 points of victory two years later, it seemed like the Fargo area was poised to flip blue and not look back....at least until it swung back to a high-single-digit Trump win in 2024.
Stark County, Ohio--By now, I think we've come to terms with the fact that the Mahoning Valley is gone, but there are so many additional problem areas in Ohio. The county that was held up as Ohio's bellwether in the Bush and Obama years is....not such a bellwether anymore. Trump won it by 22 points and Moreno won it by 13 points.
Erie County, Ohio--Key to the Obama and Sherrod Brown coalitions in the Ohio of yesteryear was outright victory or diminished GOP margins in smaller industrial cities. In 2024, the long-time leanings of the Sandusky area shifted to a 14-point win for Trump, a 4-point win for Moreno and, most stunningly, a 6-point win for Derek Merrin over Marcy Kaptur!
Scioto County, Ohio--Another burned-out industrial area at the bottom of Ohio that never went for Gore, Kerry, or Obama, but none of those Democrats ever lost it by more than 5 points. Sherrod Brown won it twice in the past. How did they fare in 2024? Trump won it by 48 points and Moreno won it by 38 points.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania--Given how blue this county had become since the Bush years, it wasn't on my radar that it might flip back to Trump this year despite my overall bearishness about the Keystone State. It did flip though, with their Democratic Congressman being washed away in the red tide. Does the Stroudsburg area have a large Hispanic population?
Northampton County, Pennsylvania--When asked in October how I thought Northampton County would go this year, I predicted they'd split between Trump and Casey. I was half right, but wasn't pessimistic enough as David McCormick managed to beat Casey here too. And while they narrowly voted for Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild, it wasn't by enough to keep her in Congress.
Providence County, Rhode Island--Not that long ago, the Ocean State's most populous county was the key driver of the state's dark hue of Democratic blue. Now it lags the state average, with its population of Hispanics and ethnic whites increasingly receptive to the MAGA message.
Jasper County, South Carolina--Is it collapsing black population or an influx of wealthy whites buying coastal property driving the state's southernmost county so rapidly toward Republicans? It flipped and flipped hard this year, going from a 1-point Biden win in 2020 to a nearly 10-point Trump win in 2024.
Marion County, South Carolina--On the other side of South Carolina, the intense realignment to the GOP in the Lumberton-Rockingham region of North Carolina has not spared its neighbors on the other side of the state line. Biden won this county by more than 20 points. Harris by only 10. And its smaller neighboring counties like Dillon and Marlboro have either flipped entirely or most likely will next cycle.
Deuel County, South Dakota--The Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle coalitions of the Bush years are long gone, particularly the farm counties along the I-29 corridor. Most striking is this county bordering the heart of Minnesota's equally comatose Farmer-Labor region. Donald Trump got 75% of the vote here this year.
Hardeman County, Tennessee--The last majority-white county of rural Tennessee to flip was this county in the southwest part of the state, going red the first time Trump was on the ballot. This year, the third time Trump was on the ballot, he won this two-time Obama county by more than 24 points. Marsha Blackburn won by 27 points.
Webb County, Texas--Obviously, the Lone Star State could have 50 entries on this list, but it's hard to top the Laredo area swinging from a 23-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Henry Cuellar still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Hidalgo County, Texas--Perhaps the only Texas result more striking than the Democratic collapse in Webb County is a short distance down the Rio Grande River where another county with triple its population swung from a 17-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Vicente Gonzalez still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Orleans County, Vermont--The Green Mountain State certainly has a long way to go to revert back to its days as the bedrock stronghold of the Republican Party, but at least as it applies to Vermont's counties hugging the Canadian border, the reversion is well underway, flipping to Trump this year.
Loudoun County, Virginia--Remember the first "oh shit" moment you had on the evening of November 5, 2024, when it was undeniable that a night from hell was forthcoming? If you're like me, it was when Loudoun County was 100% reported and had shifted 8 points toward Trump compared to four years ago. Tim Kaine's numbers were way down too, above and beyond the inexplicable decline in the rest of northern Virginia.
Lafayette County, Wisconsin--Another terrible year for the counties in Wisconsin's Driftless Region just as is the case in the rest of the Midwestern Mississippi River Valley. The county that collapsed the hardest touches counties with Dane County. It went for Trump by 20 points and Eric Hovde by 12 points.
Just FYI, these two comments are double-posted.
I think it's resolved now. I tried to post the whole thing as one comment but it said it was too large. Then I had to scramble to chop it up and it was a mess. I think now there's three posts but all different with no duplicates.
Appreciate you taking the time to put these together.
Locally I would add Pitkin, Eagle to the dissapointing counties, Still strong Dem performances but 5-7 point swings to the right. The low population south central CO counties you briefly mentioned Saguache, Conejos, Alamosa Costello and to a lesser extent Pueblo county all zoomed to the right, Saguache almost flipped. Most of these counties do not have too many people so it didn't move the needle statewide much.
Overperformance: Chaffee County, Harris won 55-42, Trump carried it 47-43 in 16.
Chaffee, Ouray, and San Juan have really exploded in Democrats' direction in the last few cycles. Presumably being inundated with demographics similar to Pitkin, Summit, Eagle, and San Miguel I presume.
All counties along NC coast, are getting less rural in nature. A lot of new comers there. When you pick out the shift in declining rural east NC, you go further inland coastal plains. Halifax, Edgecombe, Nash, etc. even Pitt county with ECU sitting there. Each has less total votes than 4 years ago.
On the booming coast, Even in Brunswick county on the other end of the coast, which showed a slight shift BLUE in percentage, Harris lost a whole lot more votes than Biden 4 years ago.
BTW, back in DKE days I mentioned the TWO coasts of North Carolina, the uplifting bluffs around Wilmington to SC, and the gradually sinking swampier OBX (or their population centers IBX). It seems the new retirees flowing there are different as well. Those to Wilmington areas are much more in the middle leaning slightly red, showing as a lot of NPA new registrations. Those to OBX are adding almost purely R registrations.
BTW, rural places in SC as a whole, had even bigger shift than the rural east in NC. It is just not in a battleground and less noted.
Used to be 2/3 of the R edge in SC are from 6 upstate counties along I85. Democrats are behind in other urban/suburban places, Lowcountry, Myrtle, Augusta and Charlotte exurbs, and slightly ahead in Columbia urban area, adding to the other 1/3. Rural small town SC which is only a bit over 1/4 of the state was almost always in parity, with a lot of Black voters.
This year, Harris didn’t lose Upstate much worse. But the deficits were only about half of the whole state. Slides a bit in other urban areas. The biggest drop from rural SC. Lost some 10pt, close to 65000 vote margin.
NC’s inner coastal plains are about twice this size. It only moved about 45000 vote margin. The whole GA “rural” moved about 70000 votes, that is including a lot of northern counties and coasts with significant inflows, which made them much less “rural” nature as the case of NC coasts.
Literally talking about the group of voters, the older ones among them saved Biden’s flailing 2020 primary campaign, and most of them came out in the general again in large numbers for him and Harrison.
Yet 4 years later, a 10pt margin means about 10% or more supposedly most loyal D voters just sat out.
I figured lethargic black turnout was perhaps the biggest issue as to why Trump had the best showing in South Carolina since George W. Bush in 1988....with the same probably true in Mississippi as well. On the other hand, I seem to recall reading that South Carolina was the only state to get "more white" during the last census.
I think SC and FL are the two with a significant increase of non Hispanic White population. Given FL is much larger and diverse, not surprised SC is the only one getting Whiter.
Pasquotank county in northeast NC was particularly galling this year
There were some counties with bad trends where I was surprised that they weren't even worse. I think the border issue hurt Harris in Arizona, but I didn't expect Pima and Cochise to have among the smallest red shifts. Dem numbers also largely collapsed in rez counties as they generally did in poorer areas nationwide (presumably mostly due to inflation) but Menominee county WI shifted less than 3 points toward Trump compared to about 6 nationally.
Forking depressing, ain't it?
Madison County, Illinois should be on the list of biggest Dem disappointments, and so should Will County.
While things have gone to hell for Democrats in Madison County since the 2000s, Harris actually did a tick better than Biden did there four years ago. There weren't too many places in Illinois where that was the case this year.
True, but still nice to see the continued Democratic improvement in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal), which is now bluer than Peoria or Winnebago counties. And interesting that this was finally the election where Dems break 60% in Champaign County.