I would say Rs have a teeny tiny voter base edge there, much smaller than 4 years ago. D base voters in the suburbs generally have slightly higher turnout than average, but the Black voters in city center and the east plains usually have lower than average turnout.
So overall I would say, NC polls are meaningless now. Whoever wins the turnout wins it. The margin may be down to how Asheville or “inner banks” vote.
BTW, the mail votes banked so far, of course a lot from suburbs and quite blue right now. The red coasts are actually much bluer at this moment than they would be finally, with Ds there return ballots early.
The inner coastal plains/Black belt’s turnout is slow and looks very red. A lot of Dixiecrats, and Black voters are not into VBM that much.
So I don’t know much to say, other than that we have to see some in person voting to know the turnout pattern.
If you are correct(I don't doubt it); then NC is 50\50 with our side holding a better gotv hand; would you agree?
Yes.
I would say Rs have a teeny tiny voter base edge there, much smaller than 4 years ago. D base voters in the suburbs generally have slightly higher turnout than average, but the Black voters in city center and the east plains usually have lower than average turnout.
So overall I would say, NC polls are meaningless now. Whoever wins the turnout wins it. The margin may be down to how Asheville or “inner banks” vote.
BTW, the mail votes banked so far, of course a lot from suburbs and quite blue right now. The red coasts are actually much bluer at this moment than they would be finally, with Ds there return ballots early.
The inner coastal plains/Black belt’s turnout is slow and looks very red. A lot of Dixiecrats, and Black voters are not into VBM that much.
So I don’t know much to say, other than that we have to see some in person voting to know the turnout pattern.