Speaking of New Hampshire's primary, Dan Guild (whom many of you may follow on Twitter as @dcg114) is a Democratic candidate for state House in Rockingham 25. On to November!
NH-House, Stafford 3 (R): Susan DeRoy 71%, David Bickford (elected 2022, plus 16 years previously) 29%, 'constitutionalist' beats Olympia Snowe-esque moderate
RI-House, 42 (D): Kelsey Coletta 42%, Edward Cardillo (elected 2020) 40%, Dennis Cardillo 17%, progressive beats conservadem and his nephew
Plus one headed at least to recount:
DE-House, 36 (R): Bryan Shupe (elected 2018) 50.3%, Patrick Smith 49.7%, moderate leads extremist by 12 votes
It's also worth noting that we could easily lose the seat; it's a Johnston-based seat that went Obama+12 --> Obama +20 --> Trump+12 --> Trump+7. Cardillo's predecessor won by 44 in 2004 and then was unopposed seven times in a similar district; Cardillo won by 1.7% in 2020 and 4.9% in 2022.
Both Alaska chambers are also worth watching, although the results of those will likely depend on how the coalitions organize in January and not the election results.
Just slight correction. In the article it says she raised $1m in 48 hours. But that’s still very impressive considering she raised $4.8m in the last 3 months.
She’s starting to hit the funding levels it would take to run a serious campaign for the expansive, expensive and unquestionably red leaning state. That’s not to say she wins or anything like that, but her campaign seems to have momentum.
I live here; deSantis current shenanigans with the abortion ballot initiative and Trump\deSantis taking opposing sides on marijuana amendment is going to definitely benefit Powell\democratic sanity\chaos argument; plus Rick Scott has never been a popular politician unlike Rubio or deSantis(deSantis has now tanked in popularity)
In 2020 the polls were very Biden-friendly and the average was him up in the high single digits and he wound up winning by .5. In 2022, the miss wasn't as bad but they still had the Governor's race as a coin flip and Evers wound up winning by 3.5 and they had Johnson up by mid single digits and he wound up winning by 1. So I'm not sure what to make of the polls this go around
2 thoughts on the Digest: If any of you are too young to remember the Obama Presidency or need a reminder, Joe Wilson was the congressman who lied by yelling out "You lie!" at President Obama during a State of the Union speech, helping to bring about the current climate of inveterate lying and racist hostility from the Republican Party. So while strokes are terrible and I wish him well on a human level, I don't have any special sympathy for him. And the other one is, will the Democrats really lose MI-07?
Rogers and Bishop held the district with relative ease for nearly two decades, even if Eaton County was gerrymandered out. Now, more than ever, it's pretty much Lansing vs. everywhere else. If Barrett can successfully sell himself as the normal and sane, his superior name rec could easily carry him to a win, and make himself very hard to dislodge. Hopefully the GOP margins in the rurals and exurbs has hit their ceiling here, but that remains to be seen.
Pres margins in the 9 townships with Lansing at center (41.5% of district):
I'm not sure if this was picked up earlier but CO-08:
"“Republicans and Libertarians are joining forces to defeat Yadira Caraveo and her extreme, far-left agenda,” Evans said in a statement, adding that he and Joss were "united in our determination to rein in the size, scope, cost and corruption of government."
Calling Joss' decision a "strategic maneuver" intended to consolidate the anti-incumbent vote, state Libertarian spokesman Jordan Marinovich said the party hoped that the move would prevent Joss from splitting conservative-leaning voters with Evans and "(move) the needle toward more liberty in Colorado
In order to secure Joss's backing, Evans signed a heavily revised version of the "Pledge for Liberty" created last year by Colorado Libertarians, agreeing to uphold promises described as "the best way to make America a freer and more prosperous country."
The pledge itself uses language that is pretty abstract/open to interpretation and the marijuana plank may actually help him a bit. If Harris wins the 8th by around the same 5 point margin Biden won it by or better Caraveo probably wins too. Incumbency should also help, but her very narrow win in 2022 despite Dems crushing it statewide is a concern. Caraveo won 48.4-47.7 in 2022 with the Lib getting the remainder.
In 2022, Gov. Polis won CO-08 by 8 points and Sen. Bennet by around 4 points, so congresswoman Yadira Caraveo (D) is a strong favorite, especially with presidential cycle and Trump at the top of the ticket. I'm not too worried about this seat!! 💙🇺🇲
Maybe, but she now has the advantage of incumbency in a presidential cycle with Trump at the top of the ticket, which is why I'm confident she'll be fine!! 💙🇺🇲
I love your confidence but note that Sabato, Cook, and Inside Politics (Gonzales) each rate fewer than a dozen seats as toss-up, and each one rates this one to be so.
The fact that she won by 0.7 despite Bennett winning it by 4 and Polis by 8 is my concern. Hopefully, Harris wins the district by 5 or more and incumbency helps.
But of course, Bennett and Polis were incumbents. She didn't run behind them because of any weakness but becauser she was less well-known/not the incumbent.
Fair point. The R in the CU Regents race won the seat 51.7-48.3 so I think it's fair to say the libertarian may have won the race for Caraveo last time but I agree incumbency should help her to some degree this time and I expect Harris to win the seat at least narrowly. It will be close.
So what am I missing about this Springfield, Ohio, situation? The media has descended upon this place and flooded the zone with half-assed stories all week documenting how this burned-out Midwestern industrial city that's lost 50% of its industrial jobs in the last 25 years has become the unanimous destination of Haitian refugees "seeking jobs". Yet zero of these enterprising reporters have given any indication of what kind of jobs are so readily available at this hollowed-out town to support an influx of 15,000 people in three years. There's been some hint that there's a warehousing hub somewhere in the area, but has that really provided the employment base for that kind of population boom? What am I missing here and why are the people reporting on it refusing to tell us?
Everybody rolled their eyes at Trump's comment about immigrants eating dogs and cats, but if the result is a renewed focus on asylum policy, we'll see whose campaigns it does and doesn't benefit in the long run. I bet Sherrod Brown isn't laughing. Feels like if Moreno spent the rest of the campaign exclusively demagoging the Springfield situation, he'd win by 10 points.
The chances that Moreno will be more disciplined in documenting the actual story than Trump? Do you think "Haitian immigrants are eating cats" is Moreno's ticket to victory?
I think "15,000 Haitian immigrants in Springfield in three years" is Moreno's ticket to victory. If Trump's "immigrants are eating cats" quip shines a bright spotlight on Springfield's refugee story, I don't think Moreno objects too loudly. This story features layer upon layer of rage bait for Ohio's largest voter demographic (and Brown's most vulnerable but needed cohort). And the fact that so much of media reporting on this story doesn't even come close to adding up (15,000 Haitians have descended upon a burned-out industrial city that's lost half of its jobs....and have done so to find work), Moreno can quite easily fill in the holes without having to resort to discussing dog and cat consumption.
Not sure. The last I heard he was still unable to run many ads because of the post-primary season timetable and has to outsource it to SuperPACs. Maybe that's changed by now.
The people who will be motivated by "15,000 Haitian immigrants in Springfield in three years" are already voting and are voting Trump.
Everyone else is going to remember nothing except "they're eating dogs and cats."
I fail to see how there's any positive spin on this for Republicans. It's obvious lunatic insanity that repels suburban voters who actually live on the planet Earth and exclusively and entirely motivates racist morons who are not-so-secretly wishing their well-read copy of the Turner Diaries is coming true.
Sure, and he's done it before. The ones Brown can win aren't going to be swayed by some insane lunacy. Basically, I don't think story affects Brown negatively at all. If he loses, it's because Ohio is just a lost cause, not because a lot of Haitians moved into a minor town in the middle of the state.
After the great recession, manufacturing trickled back but the long-time locals had by then largely lost their young and talented to the cities. Also, drug abuse issues hampered their remaining workforce. And some Haitians who fled to Florida who had been granted work passes were directed to Ohio to fill the vacuum.
And now they'll be in fear of some pogrom being called against them.
Thanks much for this. I've read at least 10 stories on Springfield this week and this is the first that's given any indication of why there's so many job openings.
Welcome to the fray. In any case, there has been a boom in new jobs, but it seems less like manufacturing jobs are the new farm work. No one wants to do them or employers have issues finding reliable workers. The drug issues, lack of motivation and yhe large percentage of young people relocated meant that when the city successfully hit project after project and reinvented itself as an inexpensive hub for new regional industry, the workforce just wasn't there to support it. As always, you should know this mark, big immigrant pipelines like this only follow industry. I wonder how much more of Biden's red state investment is going to fall on communities that young Americans simply refuse to move to, and end up requiring increased immigration to fill in the gaps.
I think it was the Newshour a couple of days ago but they had a report from Springfield and one of the employers stated explicitly "The good thing about them (Haitian immigrants) is they are not on drugs during their shift". I listened to the quote twice to be sure I heard it right. It's not shocking per se but still jarring.
I saw that Newshour story too. It was actually the first story I saw on the topic before I did a deep dive searching for specifics on why so many Haitians had moved to this city. The place they visited in the Newshour story was called McGregor Metal and the manager they talked to said he had 30 Haitians working there, which was 10% of his workforce. Okay.....so that accounts for 0.2% of them. It seemed strange to me then and still does that the story didn't elaborate on what the employment draw was to accommodate a surge of 15,000. KingOfSpades' link was the first story I'd seen that gives further explanation.
I do not think the contempt you are expressing for the media is warranted. That's especially the case when there has in fact been a great deal of reporting on this subject. The NYT had a lengthy piece a week ago—before the racist "pet eating" lies cranked up—explaining the city's resurgence and the new struggles it's experiencing as a consequence: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/us/springfield-ohio-school-bus-crash-haiti-immigrants.html
Regarding jobs in particular:
>>> In 2017, Topre, a major Japanese auto parts manufacturer, picked Springfield for a new plant in a decaying part of town that had been the site of International Harvester, a farm equipment manufacturer that was once the biggest employer.
By 2020, Springfield had lured food-service firms, logistics companies and a microchip maker, among others, creating an estimated 8,000 new jobs and optimism for the future.
“It was incredible to witness the transformation of our community,” said Horton Hobbs, vice president of economic development for the Greater Springfield Partnership, which executed the plan.
But soon there were not enough workers. Many young, working-age people had descended into addiction. Others shunned entry-level, rote work altogether, employers said. <<<
In particular, please note the first sentence of the last paragraph.
No one disputes that Springfield is facing serious challenges. No one is heedless of the GOP's ability to successfully engage in racist demagoguery even when they have few facts on their side.
Springfield's story does indeed "add up." The claim that "15,000 Haitians have descended upon a burned-out industrial city that's lost half of its jobs....and have done so to find work" is the one that is off-base.
Is it possible that the JD Vance take—that the racist lies don't matter because they're shining a spotlight on Springfield's problems—will actually wind up proving right? Sure. No one with any sense who's lived through the Trump era would dismiss that out of hand.
But Springfield's story is no surprise. It's been deeply reported, and it makes plenty of sense. We've seen stories like it before, and we'll see more like it in the future.
Folks, is there any way to see only the new posts you haven't read before? I still haven't figured that out, and as the threads get longer, it's going to become more of a strain on my arms to scroll through.
What I’ve found is that if you leave the page and come back later on mobile, you just click the “new reply” button for every discussion you’re interested in.
Speaking of New Hampshire's primary, Dan Guild (whom many of you may follow on Twitter as @dcg114) is a Democratic candidate for state House in Rockingham 25. On to November!
https://bluevoterguide.org/NH/candidate_Daniel_Guild/561147
Correction! He is @dcg1114: https://twitter.com/dcg1114
Amazing!
With hundreds up for re-election (thanks NH), it looks like we only had three incumbent legislators go down yesterday:
DE-House, 15 (D): Kamela Smith 53%, Valerie Longhurst (elected 2004) 47%, progressive beats business-friendly speaker
NH-House, Stafford 3 (R): Susan DeRoy 71%, David Bickford (elected 2022, plus 16 years previously) 29%, 'constitutionalist' beats Olympia Snowe-esque moderate
RI-House, 42 (D): Kelsey Coletta 42%, Edward Cardillo (elected 2020) 40%, Dennis Cardillo 17%, progressive beats conservadem and his nephew
Plus one headed at least to recount:
DE-House, 36 (R): Bryan Shupe (elected 2018) 50.3%, Patrick Smith 49.7%, moderate leads extremist by 12 votes
Was there some kind of family drama reason the two Cardillo's ran against each other and split their vote share?
Good old-fashioned, generational family feud, with similar results to the 2022 primary (E Cardillo 41%, Coletta 36%, D Cardillo 23%):
https://turnto10.com/politics/edward-dennis-cardillo-johnston-rhode-island-democratic-primary-house-political-election-district-family-feud-august-2-2022
It's also worth noting that we could easily lose the seat; it's a Johnston-based seat that went Obama+12 --> Obama +20 --> Trump+12 --> Trump+7. Cardillo's predecessor won by 44 in 2004 and then was unopposed seven times in a similar district; Cardillo won by 1.7% in 2020 and 4.9% in 2022.
This is a great report. Thank you.
In addition to NH, what other state leg chambers might we flip?
AZ House & Senate? PA Senate? Wisconsin House?
Holding onto MI & MN & ME trifectas + the PA House will also be worth watching.
CNalysis has Tilt D ratings for the AZ House and Senate.
NC R supermajority is also worth watching.
Both Alaska chambers are also worth watching, although the results of those will likely depend on how the coalitions organize in January and not the election results.
Apparently Harris has raised $55 million in the last 24 hrs since the debate. Unsure if these are total Dem groups or just her campaign.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4873961-debbie-mucarsel-powell-fundraising/
Debbie Murcasel-Powell says she raised $1 million in 24 hrs after the Emerson poll showed her race in a dead heat.
Just slight correction. In the article it says she raised $1m in 48 hours. But that’s still very impressive considering she raised $4.8m in the last 3 months.
She’s starting to hit the funding levels it would take to run a serious campaign for the expansive, expensive and unquestionably red leaning state. That’s not to say she wins or anything like that, but her campaign seems to have momentum.
I live here; deSantis current shenanigans with the abortion ballot initiative and Trump\deSantis taking opposing sides on marijuana amendment is going to definitely benefit Powell\democratic sanity\chaos argument; plus Rick Scott has never been a popular politician unlike Rubio or deSantis(deSantis has now tanked in popularity)
I would really love to see a Democratic Senator representing FL again.
Now if Democrats can win back the governor's mansion in 2026, even better!
OH Senate:
Ohio US Senate candidate Bernie Moreno doesn’t hold an MBA, but bio and application claimed he does.
https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2024/09/11/ohio-us-senate-candidate-bernie-moreno-doesnt-hold-an-mba-but-bio-and-application-claimed-he-does/
Per the article, Moreno's campaign is playing damage control over this issue.
Not a good sign if you want to win the OH-SEN race.
Mike Johnson spending plan vote pulled. Probably just punting for 90 days until December.
What about a CR??
I meant the preference is for a 90 day CR.
I was hoping that the Republicans would stupidly vote for a shutdown(apparently they are not that dumb)
Marquette Wisconsin poll:
LVs head to head, Harris 52, Trump 48
LVs, full ballot: Harris, 48, Trump 43, others
Taken 8/28-9/5. The last Marquette poll had Trump ahead by 1 among RVs and Harris ahead by 1 among LVs so this shows good positive movement for Harris. The poll's sample was 35% R's; 32% D's and 32% I's. https://www.wpr.org/news/trump-harris-polling-wisconsin-marquette-august
In 2020 the polls were very Biden-friendly and the average was him up in the high single digits and he wound up winning by .5. In 2022, the miss wasn't as bad but they still had the Governor's race as a coin flip and Evers wound up winning by 3.5 and they had Johnson up by mid single digits and he wound up winning by 1. So I'm not sure what to make of the polls this go around
This same poll also has Baldwin 52-47.
An improvement over last time.
2 thoughts on the Digest: If any of you are too young to remember the Obama Presidency or need a reminder, Joe Wilson was the congressman who lied by yelling out "You lie!" at President Obama during a State of the Union speech, helping to bring about the current climate of inveterate lying and racist hostility from the Republican Party. So while strokes are terrible and I wish him well on a human level, I don't have any special sympathy for him. And the other one is, will the Democrats really lose MI-07?
I don't trust any house polling numbers without the seeing the corresponding presidential election numbers.
I'd have a healthy skepticism of the presidential numbers, too, but it looks like this campaign needs support, in any case.
On MI-07:
Rogers and Bishop held the district with relative ease for nearly two decades, even if Eaton County was gerrymandered out. Now, more than ever, it's pretty much Lansing vs. everywhere else. If Barrett can successfully sell himself as the normal and sane, his superior name rec could easily carry him to a win, and make himself very hard to dislodge. Hopefully the GOP margins in the rurals and exurbs has hit their ceiling here, but that remains to be seen.
Pres margins in the 9 townships with Lansing at center (41.5% of district):
D+53.6k-->D+41.5k-->D+43.6k-->D+59.1k
Remainder (58.5% of district):
R+13.1k-->R+31.2k-->R+58.3k-->R+54.8k
Get the MSU students registered and voting
I'm not sure if this was picked up earlier but CO-08:
"“Republicans and Libertarians are joining forces to defeat Yadira Caraveo and her extreme, far-left agenda,” Evans said in a statement, adding that he and Joss were "united in our determination to rein in the size, scope, cost and corruption of government."
Calling Joss' decision a "strategic maneuver" intended to consolidate the anti-incumbent vote, state Libertarian spokesman Jordan Marinovich said the party hoped that the move would prevent Joss from splitting conservative-leaning voters with Evans and "(move) the needle toward more liberty in Colorado
In order to secure Joss's backing, Evans signed a heavily revised version of the "Pledge for Liberty" created last year by Colorado Libertarians, agreeing to uphold promises described as "the best way to make America a freer and more prosperous country."
The pledge itself uses language that is pretty abstract/open to interpretation and the marijuana plank may actually help him a bit. If Harris wins the 8th by around the same 5 point margin Biden won it by or better Caraveo probably wins too. Incumbency should also help, but her very narrow win in 2022 despite Dems crushing it statewide is a concern. Caraveo won 48.4-47.7 in 2022 with the Lib getting the remainder.
https://www.coloradopolitics.com/columnists/colorado-libertarian-endorses-republican-gabe-evans-exits-competitive-8th-cd-race--trail-mix/article_139842aa-6a5c-11ef-ad62-b3cff81db81c.html
In 2022, Gov. Polis won CO-08 by 8 points and Sen. Bennet by around 4 points, so congresswoman Yadira Caraveo (D) is a strong favorite, especially with presidential cycle and Trump at the top of the ticket. I'm not too worried about this seat!! 💙🇺🇲
What percentage does the Libertarian House candidate usually get in this district?
In 2022, the result was:
Yadira Caraveo (D): 48%.
Barbara Kirkmeyer (R): 48%.
Richard "Dan" Ward (L): 4%.
This was rounded up; by the way!! 💙🇺🇲
Thanks. So this is a real threat.
Maybe, but she now has the advantage of incumbency in a presidential cycle with Trump at the top of the ticket, which is why I'm confident she'll be fine!! 💙🇺🇲
I love your confidence but note that Sabato, Cook, and Inside Politics (Gonzales) each rate fewer than a dozen seats as toss-up, and each one rates this one to be so.
The fact that she won by 0.7 despite Bennett winning it by 4 and Polis by 8 is my concern. Hopefully, Harris wins the district by 5 or more and incumbency helps.
But of course, Bennett and Polis were incumbents. She didn't run behind them because of any weakness but becauser she was less well-known/not the incumbent.
Fair point. The R in the CU Regents race won the seat 51.7-48.3 so I think it's fair to say the libertarian may have won the race for Caraveo last time but I agree incumbency should help her to some degree this time and I expect Harris to win the seat at least narrowly. It will be close.
Imo this is a bellwether type race; winning these marginal seats are the key to the majority
https://pennsylvaniaindependent.com/politics/dave-mccormick-bob-casey-2024-senate-election-bridgewater-sexual-assault-ray-dario
Dave McCormick may have told victims to keep sexual harassment claims quiet at his Connecticut hedge fund.
Today is just the day the keeps on giving for Dems in the Senate. First Moreno now McCormick. Would be great to add Sheehy to the mix.
How much play are these getting?? I'd be curious to see
McCormick is absolutely the most inspiring GOP Senate Candidate to ever have run in the PA-SEN race.
Not!
OH-Sen: Trigger alert for unpopular take.
So what am I missing about this Springfield, Ohio, situation? The media has descended upon this place and flooded the zone with half-assed stories all week documenting how this burned-out Midwestern industrial city that's lost 50% of its industrial jobs in the last 25 years has become the unanimous destination of Haitian refugees "seeking jobs". Yet zero of these enterprising reporters have given any indication of what kind of jobs are so readily available at this hollowed-out town to support an influx of 15,000 people in three years. There's been some hint that there's a warehousing hub somewhere in the area, but has that really provided the employment base for that kind of population boom? What am I missing here and why are the people reporting on it refusing to tell us?
Everybody rolled their eyes at Trump's comment about immigrants eating dogs and cats, but if the result is a renewed focus on asylum policy, we'll see whose campaigns it does and doesn't benefit in the long run. I bet Sherrod Brown isn't laughing. Feels like if Moreno spent the rest of the campaign exclusively demagoging the Springfield situation, he'd win by 10 points.
The chances that Moreno will be more disciplined in documenting the actual story than Trump? Do you think "Haitian immigrants are eating cats" is Moreno's ticket to victory?
I think "15,000 Haitian immigrants in Springfield in three years" is Moreno's ticket to victory. If Trump's "immigrants are eating cats" quip shines a bright spotlight on Springfield's refugee story, I don't think Moreno objects too loudly. This story features layer upon layer of rage bait for Ohio's largest voter demographic (and Brown's most vulnerable but needed cohort). And the fact that so much of media reporting on this story doesn't even come close to adding up (15,000 Haitians have descended upon a burned-out industrial city that's lost half of its jobs....and have done so to find work), Moreno can quite easily fill in the holes without having to resort to discussing dog and cat consumption.
Has Moreno been going with the cat-eating libel?
Not sure. The last I heard he was still unable to run many ads because of the post-primary season timetable and has to outsource it to SuperPACs. Maybe that's changed by now.
He would have done so in a statement, probably not in an ad. Have you been following his campaign closely?
The people who will be motivated by "15,000 Haitian immigrants in Springfield in three years" are already voting and are voting Trump.
Everyone else is going to remember nothing except "they're eating dogs and cats."
I fail to see how there's any positive spin on this for Republicans. It's obvious lunatic insanity that repels suburban voters who actually live on the planet Earth and exclusively and entirely motivates racist morons who are not-so-secretly wishing their well-read copy of the Turner Diaries is coming true.
Are you forgetting that Trump is heavily favored to win Ohio and Brown will likely need to win a substantial number of Trump voters to be reelected?
Sure, and he's done it before. The ones Brown can win aren't going to be swayed by some insane lunacy. Basically, I don't think story affects Brown negatively at all. If he loses, it's because Ohio is just a lost cause, not because a lot of Haitians moved into a minor town in the middle of the state.
I think Moreno was the best candidate that the Democratic party could have hoped for; if anything I think this situation is a bonus for Brown
Car parts manufacturering and microchips to name a few: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13808817/Springfield-Ohio-Haitian-immigration-population-surge.html
After the great recession, manufacturing trickled back but the long-time locals had by then largely lost their young and talented to the cities. Also, drug abuse issues hampered their remaining workforce. And some Haitians who fled to Florida who had been granted work passes were directed to Ohio to fill the vacuum.
And now they'll be in fear of some pogrom being called against them.
Thanks much for this. I've read at least 10 stories on Springfield this week and this is the first that's given any indication of why there's so many job openings.
Welcome to the fray. In any case, there has been a boom in new jobs, but it seems less like manufacturing jobs are the new farm work. No one wants to do them or employers have issues finding reliable workers. The drug issues, lack of motivation and yhe large percentage of young people relocated meant that when the city successfully hit project after project and reinvented itself as an inexpensive hub for new regional industry, the workforce just wasn't there to support it. As always, you should know this mark, big immigrant pipelines like this only follow industry. I wonder how much more of Biden's red state investment is going to fall on communities that young Americans simply refuse to move to, and end up requiring increased immigration to fill in the gaps.
I think it helps Brown a great deal; that's right in his wheelhouse; manufacturing successes under the Biden administration
I think it was the Newshour a couple of days ago but they had a report from Springfield and one of the employers stated explicitly "The good thing about them (Haitian immigrants) is they are not on drugs during their shift". I listened to the quote twice to be sure I heard it right. It's not shocking per se but still jarring.
I saw that Newshour story too. It was actually the first story I saw on the topic before I did a deep dive searching for specifics on why so many Haitians had moved to this city. The place they visited in the Newshour story was called McGregor Metal and the manager they talked to said he had 30 Haitians working there, which was 10% of his workforce. Okay.....so that accounts for 0.2% of them. It seemed strange to me then and still does that the story didn't elaborate on what the employment draw was to accommodate a surge of 15,000. KingOfSpades' link was the first story I'd seen that gives further explanation.
and here is CNN story on this: https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/11/politics/video/springfield-ohio-haitian-immigrants-pets-jimenez-pkg-ac360-digvid
I do not think the contempt you are expressing for the media is warranted. That's especially the case when there has in fact been a great deal of reporting on this subject. The NYT had a lengthy piece a week ago—before the racist "pet eating" lies cranked up—explaining the city's resurgence and the new struggles it's experiencing as a consequence: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/us/springfield-ohio-school-bus-crash-haiti-immigrants.html
Regarding jobs in particular:
>>> In 2017, Topre, a major Japanese auto parts manufacturer, picked Springfield for a new plant in a decaying part of town that had been the site of International Harvester, a farm equipment manufacturer that was once the biggest employer.
By 2020, Springfield had lured food-service firms, logistics companies and a microchip maker, among others, creating an estimated 8,000 new jobs and optimism for the future.
“It was incredible to witness the transformation of our community,” said Horton Hobbs, vice president of economic development for the Greater Springfield Partnership, which executed the plan.
But soon there were not enough workers. Many young, working-age people had descended into addiction. Others shunned entry-level, rote work altogether, employers said. <<<
In particular, please note the first sentence of the last paragraph.
No one disputes that Springfield is facing serious challenges. No one is heedless of the GOP's ability to successfully engage in racist demagoguery even when they have few facts on their side.
Springfield's story does indeed "add up." The claim that "15,000 Haitians have descended upon a burned-out industrial city that's lost half of its jobs....and have done so to find work" is the one that is off-base.
You can learn more in this 2022 article from the local paper: https://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/the-springfield-resurgence-of-springfield/BBFEMFNF25GBFOCJGGN7C54BQE/
What's more, Springfield's story is not isolated or unfamiliar. The Times wrote a very similar story, even more in-depth, about Utica in 2022: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/03/realestate/utica-burma-refugees.html
Is it possible that the JD Vance take—that the racist lies don't matter because they're shining a spotlight on Springfield's problems—will actually wind up proving right? Sure. No one with any sense who's lived through the Trump era would dismiss that out of hand.
But Springfield's story is no surprise. It's been deeply reported, and it makes plenty of sense. We've seen stories like it before, and we'll see more like it in the future.
Folks, is there any way to see only the new posts you haven't read before? I still haven't figured that out, and as the threads get longer, it's going to become more of a strain on my arms to scroll through.
At the top, right above the first comment, there's a small drop down menu in tiny font where you can select 'Newest first'
I know, but that doesn't help that much. It shows threads in order of the newest thread-starting post.
What I’ve found is that if you leave the page and come back later on mobile, you just click the “new reply” button for every discussion you’re interested in.
Right. But that still requires a lot of clicking.
Never said it was easy or well thought out! But it’s the only method I’ve found to work, so you probably just gotta do that for now.
I hope someone figures out a better way, because the navigation on this platform is much worse than on DK, as checkered as that was.
So Skeletor is planning a long shot bid for Senate Minority Leader?
This is pure comedy. Maybe he should be more concerned about winning re-election than having to go for his ambitions.
https://www.axios.com/2024/09/12/mconnell-senate-republican-leader-vote
Jorge Ramos is leaving Univision after 40 years, effective following the 2024 elections.
Ramos is effectively the Spanish-language Walter Cronkite.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/entertainment/tv/2024/09/10/jorge-ramos-univision-exit-noticiero-univision/75163059007/