No way! I grew up in CT-02. Which town are you in? There are always a lot of close state legislative races in that part of the state - the town where I grew up is unfortunately represented by Republicans in the state legislature, but maybe Dems might be able to pick them off.
Who on Earth would wait in line to early vote… My max would be 20 minutes, which is a fair normal sized line and squares up with my expectations of being an adult. I’m guessing elderly people who have nothing better to do? Hope they brought a chair…. I’d be like girl bye I’ll be come back next week, I’m getting McDonald’s breakfast.
Don’t worry – at least not yet. For clarity and peace of mind, we should all follow John Ralston and his daily Early Voting Blog in the Nevada Independent, which you quote. For all things about Nevada elections, Ralston is the pre-eminent expert! That said, he will intentionally make some dramatic statements.
It seems odd because the Democratic House PAC moved money out of the three House races in NV and the Republicans in the Senate race are using the hybrid spending instead of all in. If Harris was worried about Nevada in what they are seeing, I don’t think the other organizations would be pulling out.
Yeah I simply don't see how Senator and 3 Reps are seen as near safe while a lot of people are down on Harris's chances. I guess that did essentially happen in 2022 when we lost the Gov race, but it hard for me to see much of a divergence this year.
This and the last Activote poll seem to show that the previous soft numbers in NY were primarily due to “hesitant” Harris voters. Trump never got out of the low 40s even when the polls were closer so it seems doubtful that Harris will actually lose a large number of votes in NY. Should be good news for the House as well.
All in all, 1,694,346 people have voted in Georgia. That is 23.5 percent of active registered voters. And it is already 33.9 percent of the number of Georgians who voted in 2020!
(As of evening, October 21th) The situation is now reversed; Republicans have opened a small lead in the early voting. HOWEVER, Demcrats are still outperforming Republicans in 57 of Florida’s 67 counties.
There were some comments yesterday that the numbers were bad, are there any goal posts for FL? I think back in 2016 or so the early vote was heavily Dem and it wasn’t enough. But with changes in voter registration and voting patterns what would be considered good numbers now?
From time to time, Christopher Bouzy has some really interesting facts and analysis. That said, he does strike me as an incurable optimist and a bit of a Dem cheerleader right now. I don’t have time to look for specific Tweets right now, but here is his feed.
He’s too optimistic in a lot of his projections, and that’s being generous. That said - he did call correctly that 2022 was not in fact going to be a red wave, though people like Rosenberg and Bonier did that with way less fantastical suggestions
I agree. Occasionally Bouzy offers data that I find interesting, but I do think his rhetoric is over the top.
With a stellar GOTV effort in Florida, fueled by the Abortion and Weed referenda, I do think it’s within the realm of possibility that Debbie Murcasel-Powell defeats Rick Scott.
My dream scenario for Election Night is North Carolina and Florida being called early for Kamala Harris. I think she’ll win NC, but I definitely wouldn’t bet my life or my life savings on Florida.
I can't imagine that anyone would look at the collection of data and anecdotes on Florida this year and seriously conclude that Harris is likely to win it. She'd do well to come within 5.
Not just on Florida itself. While states dont move in unison, the movement is clsoe enough that - Harris wins FL means she's safely ahead in most of the swing states - not tied or losing in the polls.
Florida isn't happening sadly in the presidential or senate race. We all knew republicans would zoom past us in early voting quite easily. Florida dems need to concentrate on clawing back some of the 2022 losses and getting Whitney Fox elected.
Actually we need to win some state leg seats and build up a bench(I might add that the Florida Democratic party is the best this cycle I've seen in 30 years; NOT hopium)
Los Angeles councilman Kevin DeLeon, the one who was caught on tape disparaging African Americans and certain groups of Latinos got through to the top 2, but he's expected to lose in the general.
His district 14 opponent Ysabel Jarado was talking on a college campus and a student prefaced his question with his thought we needed to get rid of the police, abolish them.
Her response, to quote a rap star, "fuck the police."
The political spectrum in the city of Los Angeles (pop. 4M) is to the left of most places including the rest of L.A. County (10m). People with similar political profiles have won seats on the council in recent years (Hugo Soto Martinez, Eunisses Hernandez, Nithya Raman, and City Controller Ken Mejia). I don't always agree with their rhetoric, but they have been an interesting factor in L.A. city politics in recent years. I am somewhat to their right, but left of the mainstream establishment Dems. Here's a mindblower for you: Ysabel Jurado was endorsed by the Times! The LAT is a much better paper than the NYT, but it shows how much there is a desire for change and to get rid of the a$$h*le KDL.
My sense of the local electorate is that we are cranky and want a better quality of life. These sentiments have expressions both to the right (our county's next District Attorney) and to the left, with these lefty council candidates. KDL might still win, but Ysabel Jurado has a great chance of becoming L.A.'s first Filipina city councilmember. If Jurado wins and Jillian Burgos gets the seat here in the SFV then the new left will have had a great election. I think the regular Dem, Adrin Nazarian, will win here in CD-02 in the southeast SFV, but it is never over until it is over...
I defer to your judgment on things LA as you're a resident and I only visit, but if Jurado had made those comments prior to endorsements, I question if she would have received the LAT endorsement. As much as LAPD needs to be reformed, I can't imagine the city with only a bunch of social workers out on the streets.
In the primary I am pretty sure that the LAT endorsed Assm. Miguel Santiago. Zack's Picks also had Miguel as the March primary pick in CD-14. Once the runoff was set as Ysabel vs KDL I switched my endorsement and so did the Times.
"Probably" is not the word. Gascon is toast, no question about that. Of course D.A. is a county position, so they are voted on by many different communities from Lancaster to La Habra Heights. It will be weird having a semi-closeted Repub as D.A., but California seems to be moving more towards the "tough on crime" position in the cycle of crime and punishment policy. See also Prop 36 for another example of that trend. 36 will pass easily, increasing penalties for various crimes.
George Gascon will be the answer to a future CA politics trivia question: Who served as District Attorney in both San Francisco and Los Angeles counties?
Yeah KDL was my council member until I moved to NYC in August, I don't think the new left council members are doing anything for LA's quality of life. I'd have probably voted for Jurado had I voted in LA in November, but my candidate didn't make the runoff.
Last week, the LA Times published its electoral endorsements for the 2024 election. And while the paper noted in its first line that it is “no exaggeration to say this may be the most consequential election in a generation,” that was the only mention of the presidential race in its endorsements.[...]
But according to two people familiar with the situation, executive editor Terry Tang told editorial board staff earlier this month that the paper would not be endorsing a candidate in the presidential election this cycle, a decision that came from the paper’s owner Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, a doctor who made his fortune in the healthcare industry.
The L.A. Times is relatively left-wing on their endorsements compared to most mainstream papers. I had not noticed that they didn't endorse in the presidential race, which is a nonevent here compared to state and local ballot measures and some key House races. The Emhoff family lives in this city so Kamala is now almost an Angelena (though she grew up in Oakland and served as San Francisco's D.A.). Certainly she is a California "favorite daughter". I don't know why they didn't endorse, but I think endorsements in the highest profile race are less useful than in local races where people have less information about the people or measures.
I think the Times is a relatively good paper because they try to cover local and regional issues. Also they have some excellent columnists from different communities and perspectives. I have learned a lot by reading people like Gustavo Arellano, Robin Abcarian, Frank Shyong and others, with Steve Lopez covering elders' issues and Patt Morrison with stories of SoCal history. No paper in the 21st century can do everything well because of the economic constraints of publishing, but they do OK mostly. I don't see the NYT very often nowadays, so I can't make the most informed commentary on that paper.
I love the LA Times and feel happier when reading it than when reading the NYT or WaPo. Fewer things to annoy me, less sense of self-importance, more sense that life's worth living. That said, I'm disturbed by the failure of the LAT to endorse Harris. This is the kind of existential election in which everyone, and of course every newspaper, should make clear where they stand. The failure here is not the fault of the editorial writers, who apparently had an endorsement ready to go, but of the paper's billionaire owner Patrick Soon-Shiong. I don't what what his problem is, since he's said nothing. The failure to endorse is a great disappointment and a historic mistake.
You really think that's why? I don't. People in Upstate New York didn't suddenly love New York City when "I never saw police brutality I didn't like" Giuliani was Mayor. Urban-rural conflict has a long history. We can talk about the reasons for it if you like, but don't be simplistic and misleading about it.
I said ONE REASON!! and, yes, I believe it is a contributing factor to a widespread feeling across the country (and in Canada, btw, where I just visited Vancouver and Toronto). Do you think "de-fund the police helped people's image of big U.S. cities.
A total of 1,380,839 people cast Early In-Person Votes. North Carolina is one of six states to surpass one million votes. So far, 101,607 Mail Ballots have been returned of 400,913 requested. The modest Dem lead in the Early Vote was slightly reduced yesterday.
In-Person Early Votes: 1,279,232
Party split: 35.0% Democrats, 33.6% Republicans, 31.4% Independents
NC's latest registration file shows 2.43m D, 2.32m R, 2.94m I. Dems and GOP are voting proportionately to each other, indies lower than both. Rs are generally older than Ds but they also discouraged early voting in 2020, so it isn't clear which party you'd expect to vote early more. The consensus seems to be that Ds should disproportionately vote early, but less than in 2020. I'd expect indies to be lower because they skew young.
TargetEarly has Dems +5 with that same batch of data.
Now, IDK how their modeling process works, but I'd assume a pro-Dem theory would go like this:
1) GOP not as hostile to EV as in 2020/22, so they should do slightly better.
2) GOP always does well in in-person EV.
3) Generally, people will use mail less and ED more this time as people revert to pre-COVID voting habits. As a result, less blue EV and less red ED vote. But we can only see the first half now.
4) Despite this, modeled EV is still ahead of 2020 splits in MI, WI, & NE-02. And still good if behind 2020, in PA.
5) Modeled party is still ahead of the FINAL EV splits in most battlegrounds (though not all).
6) Harris should get more crossover votes and independent votes than Trump. Thilus, straight registration analysis will miss some of her strength, and even modeled party. Especially late registrants who are younger.
That is a lot of IFs. And there is scant evidence of the GOP ground game struggling as it pertains to turnout ofcregistered GOP voters so far. Though it is still very early.
There will be no way to tell for sure until ED. Again, expect some GOP improvement in raw numbers. But believe there are some Cheney GOP votes and unaffiliated young votes for Kamala in there. We are more enthusiastic & she is more popular. And the ground game IS better
Baffled as to why anyone in the Harris campaign would single out Michigan as worrisome. With the obvious caveat that early voting has limited predictive power--especially two weeks out--the numbers have been fantastic, arguably better than any other battleground state. Detroit in particularly has been a gem, with a ballot return rate higher than all other large municipalities and overall turnout in line with the state. This is a city where turnout in 2020 was 20 percentage points below the state average; hiking turnout from 50% to 55-60% would be huge. Ingham, Oakland, and Washtenaw have also been looking really solid.
If Harris can hold or expand our margins in Dem population centers and chip away at Ottawa and Livingston, she'll be in really good shape. Personally, I expect Michigan to be the best of the seven battlegrounds for us.
Fair, but there was mention that the Clark County ballots were delayed by a week. I haven’t been able to verify that but if that is the case it would go a long way towards explaining what is going on.
My impression of the Harris campaign is that they're not leaving anything to chance. If they had polls that showed a 7 swing state sweep and an 8 point national lead they would still be saying this.
One thing I’ve been thinking a lot about recently, the two groups that Republicans have singled out to demonize and defame this cycle, immigrants (legal or not) and trans people, are two groups who, for many valid reasons, do not have many in-group, well-known advocates to counter the heinous things being said about them. The public-facing onus to defend these people often ends up falling to people who are not part of those groups, and who frankly are not always equipped for the job.
Big picture, it’s really sort of astonishing how much is said about those two groups in the media compared to how little media gets traction emanating from within those groups themselves. Both are filled with people who are fearful for their own safety and don’t want the spotlight, which is completely understandable. But the consequence of that is it’s created a disinformation vacuum filled by everybody *but* them.
They always scapegoat small, powerless minorities. Also their hostility is directed entirely at trans women. They never mention trans men, probably because they don't view them as a threat.
It’s all toxic masculinity. Most gay panic politics is directed at gay men rather than lesbian women, despite more women identifying as bisexual, lesbian or queer. It’s just about attacking what they see as men who threaten their narrow definition of wha tit is to be a man.
Which is an irony in and of itself since in countries with less toxic culture war politics high income gays are often a comfortable constituency in center-right/liberal-conservative parties
I thought there were more Americans who identified as gay men than lesbians. Bisexuality in women is more widely socially accepted than in men in the U.S., though.
Well, I can think of a few well-known immigrants: Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Melania Trump, Friedrich Trump and his poisoned-blood offspring... The first three are definitely immigrants that I would like to see deport, Friedrich’s descendants as well.
Oh, snap! I guess that’s "not the kind of immigrant" the MAGA Alt-Reich crowd is upset about.
Best update for GOP yet. Request advantage at lowest point since 10/2. Return rate advantage (6.54%) lowest since 10/9.
Almost a quarter of all ballots returned today are from Westmoreland (exurban Pitt) & York (exurban Philly). Big updates from Luzerne & Montgomery as well. Erie still lagging. Allegheny has reached 100k Dem returns with 52k outstanding. Philadelphia will hit that milestone Wednesday or Thursday.
I see no cause for concern. The "firewall" is still quite sizeable.
Yeah, Westmoreland and York - the former in particular - are quite Republican. Seems like they dumped a ton of ballots. I'm not surprised the return edge shrunk.
MVP Harris will do a rally in Houston Texas on Friday and Walz will be in Louisville this week . Not sure what to make of this. I will take it as a sign of confidence and trust their campaign strategy of diminishing returns.
besides fundraising with Beshear, there is a ballot initiative in KY about school choice/funding. Perhaps Walz wiill talk about education and Trump wanting to abolish the Dept. of Education and Head Start. The other remote possibility is the Indiana governor’s race which could be close. I still think they have to run their own race so education theme or fundraising would be my guess
Maybe Walz is getting a fundraiser in at the same time? I saw an article this week about him hitting a fundraiser in Boston this past Sunday, so he's still fundraising even this late in the game.
Obviously too late and no actual reason to, but I think it would be hilarious if they just trolled Trump and had Walz drop out to be replaced with Beshear. His head might actually explode.
“Ms. Harris plans to hold a rally in Houston and also sit for an interview with the popular podcaster Brené Brown[....]The interview will give the vice president access to a broad, nonpolitical audience[...]"
Look up “Eminem Fuck Donald Trump” on YouTube. It got me pumped and excited for 2018.
He’s done a great job making sure he’s the Detroit Dem alternative to Kid Rock. He just wasn’t utilized the same way by big Dem groups bc his past music has some wtf moments. Now he’s back on the radio and gets to introduce Obama. He’s probably so damn proud of himself, as he should be.
“Bruce Springsteen will headline Vice President Kamala Harris’ first joint rally with former President Barack Obama in Atlanta on Thursday, kicking off a series of concerts in battleground states,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Are you in Hayes district?
Thanks for the reply
No way! I grew up in CT-02. Which town are you in? There are always a lot of close state legislative races in that part of the state - the town where I grew up is unfortunately represented by Republicans in the state legislature, but maybe Dems might be able to pick them off.
I have relatives who live in East Lyme.
I'm from Redding originally...we always had rational Republicans repping us until those became extinct. Now it's solid D...
I'm with you, think i'll wait maybe next week at 3 pm. I'm not waiting an 1 and half hour to vote.
Who on Earth would wait in line to early vote… My max would be 20 minutes, which is a fair normal sized line and squares up with my expectations of being an adult. I’m guessing elderly people who have nothing better to do? Hope they brought a chair…. I’d be like girl bye I’ll be come back next week, I’m getting McDonald’s breakfast.
Don’t worry – at least not yet. For clarity and peace of mind, we should all follow John Ralston and his daily Early Voting Blog in the Nevada Independent, which you quote. For all things about Nevada elections, Ralston is the pre-eminent expert! That said, he will intentionally make some dramatic statements.
https://nitter.poast.org/RalstonReports/
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
A late mail drop from Clark got the Democrats back on track. It happened after Ralston"s message
Ralston has also admitted that mail vote and the huge growth of NPAs in the electorate in NV makes his model harder to
It seems odd because the Democratic House PAC moved money out of the three House races in NV and the Republicans in the Senate race are using the hybrid spending instead of all in. If Harris was worried about Nevada in what they are seeing, I don’t think the other organizations would be pulling out.
Yeah I simply don't see how Senator and 3 Reps are seen as near safe while a lot of people are down on Harris's chances. I guess that did essentially happen in 2022 when we lost the Gov race, but it hard for me to see much of a divergence this year.
The Governor lost closely because of covid restrictions(which were absolutely needed)
And Dems win everything else, I believe, albeit narrowly.
FWIW, in terms of Registration edge in EV, Dems did not have a large edge in 2020 or 2022.
Something around 3 ots in 2020 IIRC. 40k votes. 13k on lower volume in 2022.
I wonder how much of this is simply the fact that Clark sent out ballots a week later than usual.
Wait, really? That could definitely be a factor
More than one million early votes added from state data that came in yesterday evening. We’re now over 16.7 million votes.
NY SIena: Harris 58-39.
https://ny1.com/nyc/manhattan/politics/2024/10/21/poll--harris-holds-19-point-lead-over-trump-in-n-y-
Pretty close to to the 2020 results.
This and the last Activote poll seem to show that the previous soft numbers in NY were primarily due to “hesitant” Harris voters. Trump never got out of the low 40s even when the polls were closer so it seems doubtful that Harris will actually lose a large number of votes in NY. Should be good news for the House as well.
Siena also did some CD polls that look quite promising
Really! In NY-4, a "toss-up," Democrat challenger Gillen leads incumbent Republican D’Esposito 53-41%.
D'Esposito has major ethical issues
Didn’t he hand out patronage perks to both his wife and mistress? What is this, France?!
Yup big tax payer dollars to his girls
GEORGIA EARLY VOTE:
All in all, 1,694,346 people have voted in Georgia. That is 23.5 percent of active registered voters. And it is already 33.9 percent of the number of Georgians who voted in 2020!
Mail Ballots ("Absentee")
– 99,623 accepted (of 100,282 returned)
– 302,738 requested
In-Person Votes
– 1,594,723 (246,188 added yesterday)
TOTAL EARLY VOTE:
– 1,694,346
– 23.5% of all active registered voters.
– 33.9% of Georgia’s total 2020 turnout
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-turnout
UPDATE 7:10pm:
As of 5:30 today, 218,742 more Georgians have voted in person.
That is 26.8 percent of active registered voters.
And it is already 38.6 percent of the number of Georgians who voted in 2020!
FLORIDA EARLY VOTE
(As of evening, October 21th) The situation is now reversed; Republicans have opened a small lead in the early voting. HOWEVER, Demcrats are still outperforming Republicans in 57 of Florida’s 67 counties.
@FloridaGOP +18,899 over @FloridaDems
- Democrat: 660,745 (39.3%)
- Republican: 679,644 (40.5%)
- Other: 338,751 (20.2%)
TOTAL: 1,679,140
https://nitter.poast.org/meyer0656/status/1848515571044007956#m
There were some comments yesterday that the numbers were bad, are there any goal posts for FL? I think back in 2016 or so the early vote was heavily Dem and it wasn’t enough. But with changes in voter registration and voting patterns what would be considered good numbers now?
From time to time, Christopher Bouzy has some really interesting facts and analysis. That said, he does strike me as an incurable optimist and a bit of a Dem cheerleader right now. I don’t have time to look for specific Tweets right now, but here is his feed.
https://nitter.poast.org/cbouzy
He seems way too confident we are winning FLA.
He’s too optimistic in a lot of his projections, and that’s being generous. That said - he did call correctly that 2022 was not in fact going to be a red wave, though people like Rosenberg and Bonier did that with way less fantastical suggestions
I agree. Occasionally Bouzy offers data that I find interesting, but I do think his rhetoric is over the top.
With a stellar GOTV effort in Florida, fueled by the Abortion and Weed referenda, I do think it’s within the realm of possibility that Debbie Murcasel-Powell defeats Rick Scott.
My dream scenario for Election Night is North Carolina and Florida being called early for Kamala Harris. I think she’ll win NC, but I definitely wouldn’t bet my life or my life savings on Florida.
I can't imagine that anyone would look at the collection of data and anecdotes on Florida this year and seriously conclude that Harris is likely to win it. She'd do well to come within 5.
If Harris loses Florida by 5 I will be ecstatic
So will Murcasel-Powell
Not just on Florida itself. While states dont move in unison, the movement is clsoe enough that - Harris wins FL means she's safely ahead in most of the swing states - not tied or losing in the polls.
Definitely not likely. It would be a real upset.
Florida isn't happening sadly in the presidential or senate race. We all knew republicans would zoom past us in early voting quite easily. Florida dems need to concentrate on clawing back some of the 2022 losses and getting Whitney Fox elected.
Actually we need to win some state leg seats and build up a bench(I might add that the Florida Democratic party is the best this cycle I've seen in 30 years; NOT hopium)
It’s terrific that Florida Democrats have a candidate in every state legislative race. That’s such a huge step forward!
Los Angeles councilman Kevin DeLeon, the one who was caught on tape disparaging African Americans and certain groups of Latinos got through to the top 2, but he's expected to lose in the general.
His district 14 opponent Ysabel Jarado was talking on a college campus and a student prefaced his question with his thought we needed to get rid of the police, abolish them.
Her response, to quote a rap star, "fuck the police."
I ❤️ LA!
Sounds like two unbelievably bad candidates lmao
If that's her platform; I'd vote for DeLeon
The political spectrum in the city of Los Angeles (pop. 4M) is to the left of most places including the rest of L.A. County (10m). People with similar political profiles have won seats on the council in recent years (Hugo Soto Martinez, Eunisses Hernandez, Nithya Raman, and City Controller Ken Mejia). I don't always agree with their rhetoric, but they have been an interesting factor in L.A. city politics in recent years. I am somewhat to their right, but left of the mainstream establishment Dems. Here's a mindblower for you: Ysabel Jurado was endorsed by the Times! The LAT is a much better paper than the NYT, but it shows how much there is a desire for change and to get rid of the a$$h*le KDL.
My sense of the local electorate is that we are cranky and want a better quality of life. These sentiments have expressions both to the right (our county's next District Attorney) and to the left, with these lefty council candidates. KDL might still win, but Ysabel Jurado has a great chance of becoming L.A.'s first Filipina city councilmember. If Jurado wins and Jillian Burgos gets the seat here in the SFV then the new left will have had a great election. I think the regular Dem, Adrin Nazarian, will win here in CD-02 in the southeast SFV, but it is never over until it is over...
Thanks for the local perspective
I defer to your judgment on things LA as you're a resident and I only visit, but if Jurado had made those comments prior to endorsements, I question if she would have received the LAT endorsement. As much as LAPD needs to be reformed, I can't imagine the city with only a bunch of social workers out on the streets.
In the primary I am pretty sure that the LAT endorsed Assm. Miguel Santiago. Zack's Picks also had Miguel as the March primary pick in CD-14. Once the runoff was set as Ysabel vs KDL I switched my endorsement and so did the Times.
The LAT is pretty left wing relative to most big city newspapers, they endorsed the progressive city controller who beat a longtime LA pol stalwart.
even Los Angeles has limits as the DA Gascon is probably going to lose.
"Probably" is not the word. Gascon is toast, no question about that. Of course D.A. is a county position, so they are voted on by many different communities from Lancaster to La Habra Heights. It will be weird having a semi-closeted Repub as D.A., but California seems to be moving more towards the "tough on crime" position in the cycle of crime and punishment policy. See also Prop 36 for another example of that trend. 36 will pass easily, increasing penalties for various crimes.
George Gascon will be the answer to a future CA politics trivia question: Who served as District Attorney in both San Francisco and Los Angeles counties?
And amazingly before that was the chief of police of Mesa, Arizona, a rather conservative city, and he was well respected.
Yeah KDL was my council member until I moved to NYC in August, I don't think the new left council members are doing anything for LA's quality of life. I'd have probably voted for Jurado had I voted in LA in November, but my candidate didn't make the runoff.
About the L.A. Times, are they so good? Can you explain this? https://www.semafor.com/article/10/22/2024/los-angeles-times-wont-endorse-for-president
[quote:]
Last week, the LA Times published its electoral endorsements for the 2024 election. And while the paper noted in its first line that it is “no exaggeration to say this may be the most consequential election in a generation,” that was the only mention of the presidential race in its endorsements.[...]
But according to two people familiar with the situation, executive editor Terry Tang told editorial board staff earlier this month that the paper would not be endorsing a candidate in the presidential election this cycle, a decision that came from the paper’s owner Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong, a doctor who made his fortune in the healthcare industry.
The L.A. Times is relatively left-wing on their endorsements compared to most mainstream papers. I had not noticed that they didn't endorse in the presidential race, which is a nonevent here compared to state and local ballot measures and some key House races. The Emhoff family lives in this city so Kamala is now almost an Angelena (though she grew up in Oakland and served as San Francisco's D.A.). Certainly she is a California "favorite daughter". I don't know why they didn't endorse, but I think endorsements in the highest profile race are less useful than in local races where people have less information about the people or measures.
I think the Times is a relatively good paper because they try to cover local and regional issues. Also they have some excellent columnists from different communities and perspectives. I have learned a lot by reading people like Gustavo Arellano, Robin Abcarian, Frank Shyong and others, with Steve Lopez covering elders' issues and Patt Morrison with stories of SoCal history. No paper in the 21st century can do everything well because of the economic constraints of publishing, but they do OK mostly. I don't see the NYT very often nowadays, so I can't make the most informed commentary on that paper.
I love the LA Times and feel happier when reading it than when reading the NYT or WaPo. Fewer things to annoy me, less sense of self-importance, more sense that life's worth living. That said, I'm disturbed by the failure of the LAT to endorse Harris. This is the kind of existential election in which everyone, and of course every newspaper, should make clear where they stand. The failure here is not the fault of the editorial writers, who apparently had an endorsement ready to go, but of the paper's billionaire owner Patrick Soon-Shiong. I don't what what his problem is, since he's said nothing. The failure to endorse is a great disappointment and a historic mistake.
that was an incredibly bad response...now you see one reason why big, blue cities have such a rotten rep with so many people
You really think that's why? I don't. People in Upstate New York didn't suddenly love New York City when "I never saw police brutality I didn't like" Giuliani was Mayor. Urban-rural conflict has a long history. We can talk about the reasons for it if you like, but don't be simplistic and misleading about it.
I said ONE REASON!! and, yes, I believe it is a contributing factor to a widespread feeling across the country (and in Canada, btw, where I just visited Vancouver and Toronto). Do you think "de-fund the police helped people's image of big U.S. cities.
No, point taken.
TEXAS EARLY VOTE
Looks like statewide, Texas had 486,238 Early In-Person Votes on its first day.
– Mail Ballots: 156,855
– In-Person Early Votes: 486,238
TOTAL Early Votes: 643,107
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-texas/
These are the numbers from SOS without some quite big counties updates. Harris Co added some 125k alone.
Yeah, https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getEVDetails.do shows there are still some counties not reporting numbers. Already over 1 million though in combined in person and mail. In person looks to approach 900k.
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY VOTE
A total of 1,380,839 people cast Early In-Person Votes. North Carolina is one of six states to surpass one million votes. So far, 101,607 Mail Ballots have been returned of 400,913 requested. The modest Dem lead in the Early Vote was slightly reduced yesterday.
In-Person Early Votes: 1,279,232
Party split: 35.0% Democrats, 33.6% Republicans, 31.4% Independents
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-north-carolina/
NC's latest registration file shows 2.43m D, 2.32m R, 2.94m I. Dems and GOP are voting proportionately to each other, indies lower than both. Rs are generally older than Ds but they also discouraged early voting in 2020, so it isn't clear which party you'd expect to vote early more. The consensus seems to be that Ds should disproportionately vote early, but less than in 2020. I'd expect indies to be lower because they skew young.
Young folks procrastinate(but I expect this cycle the young vote to be big for Harris in the end)
Rs are voting generally at the same rates. Even higher in heavily red rurals. Slightly lower in Triangle and around Asheville.
TargetEarly has Dems +5 with that same batch of data.
Now, IDK how their modeling process works, but I'd assume a pro-Dem theory would go like this:
1) GOP not as hostile to EV as in 2020/22, so they should do slightly better.
2) GOP always does well in in-person EV.
3) Generally, people will use mail less and ED more this time as people revert to pre-COVID voting habits. As a result, less blue EV and less red ED vote. But we can only see the first half now.
4) Despite this, modeled EV is still ahead of 2020 splits in MI, WI, & NE-02. And still good if behind 2020, in PA.
5) Modeled party is still ahead of the FINAL EV splits in most battlegrounds (though not all).
6) Harris should get more crossover votes and independent votes than Trump. Thilus, straight registration analysis will miss some of her strength, and even modeled party. Especially late registrants who are younger.
That is a lot of IFs. And there is scant evidence of the GOP ground game struggling as it pertains to turnout ofcregistered GOP voters so far. Though it is still very early.
There will be no way to tell for sure until ED. Again, expect some GOP improvement in raw numbers. But believe there are some Cheney GOP votes and unaffiliated young votes for Kamala in there. We are more enthusiastic & she is more popular. And the ground game IS better
A gloom and doom article:
https://apple.news/AgHTUdpfWQ9yJTVdarVoCzw
I stopped reading when it claimed that Mark Robinson being a crap candidate was somehow a problem for Harris.
Mark Robinson is good news for John McCain!
Baffled as to why anyone in the Harris campaign would single out Michigan as worrisome. With the obvious caveat that early voting has limited predictive power--especially two weeks out--the numbers have been fantastic, arguably better than any other battleground state. Detroit in particularly has been a gem, with a ballot return rate higher than all other large municipalities and overall turnout in line with the state. This is a city where turnout in 2020 was 20 percentage points below the state average; hiking turnout from 50% to 55-60% would be huge. Ingham, Oakland, and Washtenaw have also been looking really solid.
If Harris can hold or expand our margins in Dem population centers and chip away at Ottawa and Livingston, she'll be in really good shape. Personally, I expect Michigan to be the best of the seven battlegrounds for us.
Same article every election cycle. Wash.Rinse.Repeat.
Yup, PA was late last week. Wonder if NV or WI will be next.
WI sounds like.
NV seems like genuine cause for concern at this point....
Fair, but there was mention that the Clark County ballots were delayed by a week. I haven’t been able to verify that but if that is the case it would go a long way towards explaining what is going on.
My impression of the Harris campaign is that they're not leaving anything to chance. If they had polls that showed a 7 swing state sweep and an 8 point national lead they would still be saying this.
Exactly. Good post
Siena has Dems up big in NY-04 and narrowly down in NY-01: https://scri.siena.edu/2024/10/22/newsday-siena-polls-nys-congressional-districts-cd-1-cd-4/
53-41 and 44-47
Oddly strong for NY Ds for this pollster.
I am actually encouraged by the NY-01(gotta believe undecided there are obtainable)
One thing I’ve been thinking a lot about recently, the two groups that Republicans have singled out to demonize and defame this cycle, immigrants (legal or not) and trans people, are two groups who, for many valid reasons, do not have many in-group, well-known advocates to counter the heinous things being said about them. The public-facing onus to defend these people often ends up falling to people who are not part of those groups, and who frankly are not always equipped for the job.
Big picture, it’s really sort of astonishing how much is said about those two groups in the media compared to how little media gets traction emanating from within those groups themselves. Both are filled with people who are fearful for their own safety and don’t want the spotlight, which is completely understandable. But the consequence of that is it’s created a disinformation vacuum filled by everybody *but* them.
They always scapegoat small, powerless minorities. Also their hostility is directed entirely at trans women. They never mention trans men, probably because they don't view them as a threat.
It’s all toxic masculinity. Most gay panic politics is directed at gay men rather than lesbian women, despite more women identifying as bisexual, lesbian or queer. It’s just about attacking what they see as men who threaten their narrow definition of wha tit is to be a man.
Which is an irony in and of itself since in countries with less toxic culture war politics high income gays are often a comfortable constituency in center-right/liberal-conservative parties
I thought there were more Americans who identified as gay men than lesbians. Bisexuality in women is more widely socially accepted than in men in the U.S., though.
Well, I can think of a few well-known immigrants: Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Rupert Murdoch, Melania Trump, Friedrich Trump and his poisoned-blood offspring... The first three are definitely immigrants that I would like to see deport, Friedrich’s descendants as well.
Oh, snap! I guess that’s "not the kind of immigrant" the MAGA Alt-Reich crowd is upset about.
Monday's PA Mail-In Ballot Update is in.
26,378 new requests, R+3,382. Overall request advantage now down to D+518,092
129,935 ballot returns, D+22,549. Overall ballot advantage now D+348,198. Under 42k short of the (once) popular firewall, 102k below my firewall
Total Requests:
D - 1,079,726 (57.74%)
R - 561,634 (30.03%)
O - 228,705 (12.23%)
Total - 1,870,065
Total Returns:
D - 649,060 (60.11% return rate)
R - 300,862 (53.57%)
O - 101,733 (44.48%)
Total - 1,051,655
Best update for GOP yet. Request advantage at lowest point since 10/2. Return rate advantage (6.54%) lowest since 10/9.
Almost a quarter of all ballots returned today are from Westmoreland (exurban Pitt) & York (exurban Philly). Big updates from Luzerne & Montgomery as well. Erie still lagging. Allegheny has reached 100k Dem returns with 52k outstanding. Philadelphia will hit that milestone Wednesday or Thursday.
I see no cause for concern. The "firewall" is still quite sizeable.
Yeah, Westmoreland and York - the former in particular - are quite Republican. Seems like they dumped a ton of ballots. I'm not surprised the return edge shrunk.
They are overall but for the mail Westmoreland is D+8k & York is D+3900.
Sure, which is part of why the ballot edge expanded. But they're closer than many counties, so putting them in the system drops the return rate gap.
MVP Harris will do a rally in Houston Texas on Friday and Walz will be in Louisville this week . Not sure what to make of this. I will take it as a sign of confidence and trust their campaign strategy of diminishing returns.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/2024/article/kamala-harris-houston-rally-19853754.php
Houston I get, but Louisville?
Yeah, that makes me wonder if they're seeing some weird polling numbers out of Kentucky
I struggle to think what those would even be. There’s no house race or Senate race of note
Same, but I can't think of any other logical reason for the visit.
Granted, if Kentucky were close that means the wheels fell off for Trump and we're looking at a landslide.
I sure as hell hope it doesn't mean they're seeing indications of the House race there being close, because that seems like it would be a bad sign.
besides fundraising with Beshear, there is a ballot initiative in KY about school choice/funding. Perhaps Walz wiill talk about education and Trump wanting to abolish the Dept. of Education and Head Start. The other remote possibility is the Indiana governor’s race which could be close. I still think they have to run their own race so education theme or fundraising would be my guess
Maybe it's to help Brown in Ohio??? But yeah, seems like an odd choice...
Dump could do Live boy, dead girl and still win Kentucky.
Maybe Walz is getting a fundraiser in at the same time? I saw an article this week about him hitting a fundraiser in Boston this past Sunday, so he's still fundraising even this late in the game.
Gotta be a fundraiser
Do we still need fundraisers at this stage?
Looking at Harris' burnrate from the September fundraising, I think the answer is definitely yes. Harris is running a labor heavy, expensive campaign
It's incredible that she'd need more funds after raising over $1,000,000,000!
Mystified why Louisville but I'll bet Hadley Duvall gets some time on stage.
Obviously too late and no actual reason to, but I think it would be hilarious if they just trolled Trump and had Walz drop out to be replaced with Beshear. His head might actually explode.
Is the Houston rally just to help Allred?
On a related note, I got a fundraising text from Ted Cruz the other day.
Probably
I think Texas is a good place to make a point about abortion.
Paywalled but maybe a fundraiser?
This is not the move a desperate campaign would make(also Walz in Kentucky; as pointed out, probably fundraising as well)
Could be. This brief mentions something else, though: https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/22/harris-to-hold-campaign-rally-in-texas/
“Ms. Harris plans to hold a rally in Houston and also sit for an interview with the popular podcaster Brené Brown[....]The interview will give the vice president access to a broad, nonpolitical audience[...]"
Slim Shady helping save democracy was not on my 2024 bingo card but I don't hate it.
Did Slim Shady endorse Harris?
He's introducing Obama at the Detroit rally tonight.
Did a good job too.
Yes.
Marshall Mathers, I presume?
Look up “Eminem Fuck Donald Trump” on YouTube. It got me pumped and excited for 2018.
He’s done a great job making sure he’s the Detroit Dem alternative to Kid Rock. He just wasn’t utilized the same way by big Dem groups bc his past music has some wtf moments. Now he’s back on the radio and gets to introduce Obama. He’s probably so damn proud of himself, as he should be.
He’s also a soon to be grandfather!
(The idea of Slim as a grandfather makes me feel very, very old)
Freaking tell me about it...
There's also this: https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/22/bruce-springsteen-to-headline-harris-obama-rally/
“Bruce Springsteen will headline Vice President Kamala Harris’ first joint rally with former President Barack Obama in Atlanta on Thursday, kicking off a series of concerts in battleground states,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.