Imo the NY Mayor's race poll is almost meaningless; we don't know the actual candidate field and this type poll is almost an entirely name recognition result
I agree with you that the polls right now reflect only name ID.
If I remember correctly, Anthony Weiner had somewhat of a lead in polling going into the actual election as well, probably because of name recognition too.
Oftentimes scandal-plagued frontrunners end up stepping on their own toes, let's not forget.
lots of early name recognition polls become statistically meaningless once the actual candidate list is finalized and the actual campaign starts; polls like this are mainly utilized for early fundraising, not actual campaign strategy
Yes, but for someone other than Cuomo or Adams (who is probably DOA) to win they'll probably have to consolidate the field down to only one serious opponent. Even with RCV it will be difficult for someone else to break through if the opposition is split between five or six people.
While Cuomo hasn't declared yet and Adams might not bother to run, the above looks like a pretty likely list of the people in the race. A 41 point lead isn't exactly small potatoes.
Not sure why you think it has little value. It conforms with most other polling, the top vote getters aren't quite nobodies like Andrew Yang, and it's not incredibly far out from the actual primary. Unless Cuomo doesn't run, I think it's fairly useful.
Rebecca Bennett, a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot, launched her campaign today to succeed Kean, a two-term Republican from one of the country’s most competitive congressional districts.
The last two Democratic nominees for the seat – former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), now the Hunterdon County Democratic chairman, and Sue Altman, now Senator Andy Kim’s state director – are both among the other candidates who might be looking at the race.
I wonder whether, amid all the turmoil over the races for governor and the sole House seat in Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, who is up for reelection in 2026 and has a history with the Freedom Caucus, will face any difficulty returning to the Senate.
Wyoming been governed by moderate Republicans since 2012, and more often than not by Democrats prior to that. But the radical right is chomping at the bit. It will be interesting to see if the moderates can defy gravity.
We've already seen what happened when the Freedom Caucus runs a state with Sam Brownback in Kansas and it was a complete disaster. I'm sure it will be different this time.
Politicalwire story: "Mark Sanford Mulls Comeback Bid for Governor". They say his "career was derailed in a bizarre personal scandal," but considering what Republicans are now, it's comparatively small potatoes, though whether South Carolinians will think so is anyone's guess at this point.
It appears the RFK Jr. has cleared a major hurdle by gaining Kennedy's "swing" vote to advance his nomination. It's getting ever more likely that RFK Jr. will be the next batshit insane or corrupt nominee for Trump's cabinet to go through. This level of corruption and abuse certainly will haunt the GOP senate like a dead albatross in future elections, especially RFK Jr. and Hegseth. Either way, they need to be held accountable.
It's increasingly hard for me to see Susan Collins surviving reelection - assuming she even decides to run. She's been in office for over 20 years now since Clinton's administration and Maine as a whole remains as blue as it ever has been. I'd say it may be close to 50/50 odds that she chooses to retire rather than face a humiliating defeat to end her career. Not only will 2026 almost certainly be a blue tsunami midterm, there's the amplified effect of having Trump in the White House further tainting the GOP brand and his cadre of loonies not including Musk. Hopefully other senate Republicans will become more vulnerable too to potentially knock off.
I'd be careful about predicting a "blue tsunami" for fear of disappointment relative to overstated expectations--remember how 2022 was supposed to be a "red tsunami?" I do agree with Lakshya Jain and others that 2026 does look likely to be bluer than any year since at least 2018, but we shouldn't get overconfident or ahead of ourselves.
Regarding Collins, the same was said by many about her likely losing in 2020, but she survived and it wasn't very close. Of course, that doesn't necessarily presage 2026, as her luck could run out especially if she thinks that "suck up to Trump while expressing concern at the right times" will prove a winning formula. And the Maine GOP's luck will almost certainly run out at least for Senate races if she steps aside.
You are right it isn't hard to see Collins surviving another election. But given what we already know, she seems to be by far the most vulnerable GOP senator. Presidential elections are harder to gauge and predict but midterms tend to swing wildly in 1 direction, especially now with hyperpolarization. 2008 is actually the most impressive year I think for Collins since she managed to win with double digits during a time where Maine was even more solidly Democratic with both districts going towards a highly popular Obama and the GOP brand being worn out by W Bush. I guess we will see if her brand holds up now in 2026 with Trump as president who is arguably even more unpopular. It may be premature, but it's very hard to see how 2026 doesn't at least lean towards Democrats, as they are the minority party federally and that's combined with Trump's unpopularity corruption and incompetence, which will only worsen by the day.
2026 should definitely at least lean to Dems, but as you mention Susan Collins has beaten the odds before. Time will tell if she becomes the GOP's Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown (potential comebacks from them notwithstanding.)
One more fun fact about Susan Collins: she was an question to a Jeopardy answer tonight. "Hailing from Caribou, Maine, she is the longest serving woman in the Senate".'
In the same "Senators" category, Cory Booker, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, and Tammy Baldwin were all questions or answers.
Elon Musk isn't running for office but as far as his influence in the polls is concerned, his unfavorability is at 52% for registered voters per a Civiqs polling conducted between December 18th 2024 - February 2nd.
Most of the unfavorability rating comes from Democrats and Independents. Musk is at a 48% unfavorable rating with Independents.
It's possible that if these kinds of unfavorable polling numbers continue they will certainly make an impact on the VA-GOV race as well as the 2026 midterms. Still early.
39-52 is pretty bad, and the slide has been recent (polling before the election generally had him no worse than even.) Civiqs numbers and methodology aren't gospel, but they do often seem to capture trends well, and Musk only has clear majority support among Republicans.
If these do hold then it's obviously bad news for the GOP, though I wouldn't advise making him personally the focus of Democrats' pitch to voters, especially if Trump decides there's room for only one ego of his size and sacks him. Musk's unpopularity will probably be reflective of the unpopularity of Trump and much of his agenda and record, so dumping him won't fix things politically, but I don't think we should rely too much on the "President Musk" theme--though some have pithily and effectively used it ("Elon Musk is a terrible President"--Tim Walz.)
We need to see a poll that is conducted in a compact time period. And recently – after Musk’s efforts to shutter USAID and gain access to government payment systems that handle $ 6 trillion per year.
Again, it’s really early in the election cycle. However, it does show that Independents are divided on Musk and may very well be this way as he continues to disrupt government in an adverse way.
I’d be more focused on how the independents evolve. They are probably still trying to wait and see how things unfold in 2025.
Well, consider this: Less than one month into his presidency, Trump’s approval rating is 10% below where President Biden’s was at this point.
Granted, it’s hard to say for sure how much of that growing unpopularity is due to the actions of Elon Musk, or vice versa, but one thing seems certain: at least for now, Musk and Trump are joined at the hip.
Yeah, Musk and Trump are definitely tied together.
However, given independents are divided at this point as outlined in the poll, Musk isn’t doing anything right now that is going to move the needle for them. Remains to be seen.
We always over-estimate how much people are informed of this stuff. So many people just don't follow politics and of course the ones following RW media think this is just a normal presidency.
Certainly agreed....and those are two of the biggest puzzle pieces on why the country is so broken. The 48% of the population not horrified by what Musk is doing are never gonna be in an information ecosystem where their current perspective will be challenged.
I think it definitely has room to drop, given he's clearly driving the most extreme actions of the past two weeks.
I could be wrong, but I think Trump basically wants punishments on his enemies, the ability to fire civil servants, culture war wins and quasi-mercantilism (although as this week shows he'll renege if markets respond poorly). Musk wants some literally insane techno-libertarian state that if not checked is going to crash the economy. Lots of folks speculating on an eventual falling out but IMO we better pray it happens sooner than later. Lots of people going on about Project 2025 but that document is fucking moderate compared to what Musk seems to be after.
The fact that the Maine Democratic party isn't running ads yet with a mashup of all the times Susan Collins said she was " disappointed" or "troubled" by Trumps actions is acute political malpractice.
Especially the one after Roe was overturned when she had assured the nation her tie-breaking vote for his nominees to the Supreme Court wouldn't end it.
Edit:
I looked up the Maine Democratic Committee on X and they have an almost inactive account. There is absolutely no information there attacking Susan Collins or any of Trumps actions thus far.
They apparently just elected a new Chair and Vice Chair but neither have social media either. This is insanity.
I encourage everyone here to email them or hit them up on X to get their asses I gear. This is alarming that a state party with a critical senate race coming in a year is anemic on social media. Wtf
The earlier you can define your opponent in negative terms the more likely it is to for those terms to stick. Trying to cram a narrative into six months is harder then spending two years asking “why has 30 year career politician Susan Collins failed to bring prices down?” Feckless concerns have not lowered the price of groceries for Mainers” etc.
Maine is a different state for Democrats in that advertising here has to be done appropriately that is going to fit the state but also target Collins accordingly.
We don’t want 2026 to be a repeat of 2020 where the DSCC’s involvement in the Senate race doomed Democratic Senate Candidate Sara Gideon from the outset.
The 2026 Republican party primary campaigns are going to be literally blood baths; getting my popcorn ready
I might add that the one's this year may also be just as nasty and almost as fun to watch
Let's hope they're not -literally- bloodbaths!
Lol..ok
I say that because that's not unimaginable now, so despite the dictionaries accepting a figurative use of "literal," clarity is called for.
understood
If only the Democratic party could recruit 100 Neil Parrott's for the Republicans
Imo the NY Mayor's race poll is almost meaningless; we don't know the actual candidate field and this type poll is almost an entirely name recognition result
I agree with you that the polls right now reflect only name ID.
If I remember correctly, Anthony Weiner had somewhat of a lead in polling going into the actual election as well, probably because of name recognition too.
Oftentimes scandal-plagued frontrunners end up stepping on their own toes, let's not forget.
lots of early name recognition polls become statistically meaningless once the actual candidate list is finalized and the actual campaign starts; polls like this are mainly utilized for early fundraising, not actual campaign strategy
Cuomo as mayor is a nightmare to me, but I'm glad to see Lander in 2nd place.
I wouldn't say meaningless, it shows that people want to move on from Adams.
Fair point
Yes, but for someone other than Cuomo or Adams (who is probably DOA) to win they'll probably have to consolidate the field down to only one serious opponent. Even with RCV it will be difficult for someone else to break through if the opposition is split between five or six people.
While Cuomo hasn't declared yet and Adams might not bother to run, the above looks like a pretty likely list of the people in the race. A 41 point lead isn't exactly small potatoes.
if you agree that the poll is actually meaningful, then yes, but imo the poll has very little true value
Not sure why you think it has little value. It conforms with most other polling, the top vote getters aren't quite nobodies like Andrew Yang, and it's not incredibly far out from the actual primary. Unless Cuomo doesn't run, I think it's fairly useful.
I think it has little value for the reasons I stated above; so let's agree to disagree
NJ 7:
Rebecca Bennett, a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot, launched her campaign today to succeed Kean, a two-term Republican from one of the country’s most competitive congressional districts.
The last two Democratic nominees for the seat – former Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes), now the Hunterdon County Democratic chairman, and Sue Altman, now Senator Andy Kim’s state director – are both among the other candidates who might be looking at the race.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/rebecca-bennett-ex-navy-helicopter-pilot-will-run-against-kean-in-nj-7/
I wonder whether, amid all the turmoil over the races for governor and the sole House seat in Wyoming, Cynthia Lummis, who is up for reelection in 2026 and has a history with the Freedom Caucus, will face any difficulty returning to the Senate.
I'm not seeing why she would.
highly unlikely unless Trump starts a war; and even then I am not optimistic
Trump has started a war – with the US of A.
Wyoming is decisively on the Trump side of that war.
Indeed. Wyoming considered Liz Cheney a traitor for insisting on holding the traitor accountable.
Wyoming been governed by moderate Republicans since 2012, and more often than not by Democrats prior to that. But the radical right is chomping at the bit. It will be interesting to see if the moderates can defy gravity.
A sharp decline in coal royalties has really jammed the state’s finances so if the moderates lose it could get very ugly there, fiscally
It looks like the answer is no.
We've already seen what happened when the Freedom Caucus runs a state with Sam Brownback in Kansas and it was a complete disaster. I'm sure it will be different this time.
this might be the only hope our side has; Sam Brownback was so awful that the democrats really benefited tremendously
Politicalwire story: "Mark Sanford Mulls Comeback Bid for Governor". They say his "career was derailed in a bizarre personal scandal," but considering what Republicans are now, it's comparatively small potatoes, though whether South Carolinians will think so is anyone's guess at this point.
Dude is like a vampire; won't die or go away; not seeing a forward path for the 'backpacking the Appalachian Trail' guy
Perhaps the GOP will ask him to ... "take a hike".
I believe he ran for President as anti trump which is harder to overcome than a truly bizarre international affair.
yup
Very much agreed.
Mark Sanford sans his Argentinian girlfriend, Ms Maria Belén Chapur?
Getting her out of the federal government would be a good thing. Pity the voters of WY: you get the government you deserve.
Virginia Democrats Advance a Measure to End Lifetime Voting Ban
https://boltsmag.org/virginia-advances-measure-to-end-lifetime-ban-on-voting/
It appears the RFK Jr. has cleared a major hurdle by gaining Kennedy's "swing" vote to advance his nomination. It's getting ever more likely that RFK Jr. will be the next batshit insane or corrupt nominee for Trump's cabinet to go through. This level of corruption and abuse certainly will haunt the GOP senate like a dead albatross in future elections, especially RFK Jr. and Hegseth. Either way, they need to be held accountable.
And Susan Collins is a yes for Tulsi Gabbard. Obviously the WH is putting major pressure on these two who are up for election this year.
It's increasingly hard for me to see Susan Collins surviving reelection - assuming she even decides to run. She's been in office for over 20 years now since Clinton's administration and Maine as a whole remains as blue as it ever has been. I'd say it may be close to 50/50 odds that she chooses to retire rather than face a humiliating defeat to end her career. Not only will 2026 almost certainly be a blue tsunami midterm, there's the amplified effect of having Trump in the White House further tainting the GOP brand and his cadre of loonies not including Musk. Hopefully other senate Republicans will become more vulnerable too to potentially knock off.
I'd be careful about predicting a "blue tsunami" for fear of disappointment relative to overstated expectations--remember how 2022 was supposed to be a "red tsunami?" I do agree with Lakshya Jain and others that 2026 does look likely to be bluer than any year since at least 2018, but we shouldn't get overconfident or ahead of ourselves.
Regarding Collins, the same was said by many about her likely losing in 2020, but she survived and it wasn't very close. Of course, that doesn't necessarily presage 2026, as her luck could run out especially if she thinks that "suck up to Trump while expressing concern at the right times" will prove a winning formula. And the Maine GOP's luck will almost certainly run out at least for Senate races if she steps aside.
It's not at all hard for me to see her winning another election.
You are right it isn't hard to see Collins surviving another election. But given what we already know, she seems to be by far the most vulnerable GOP senator. Presidential elections are harder to gauge and predict but midterms tend to swing wildly in 1 direction, especially now with hyperpolarization. 2008 is actually the most impressive year I think for Collins since she managed to win with double digits during a time where Maine was even more solidly Democratic with both districts going towards a highly popular Obama and the GOP brand being worn out by W Bush. I guess we will see if her brand holds up now in 2026 with Trump as president who is arguably even more unpopular. It may be premature, but it's very hard to see how 2026 doesn't at least lean towards Democrats, as they are the minority party federally and that's combined with Trump's unpopularity corruption and incompetence, which will only worsen by the day.
2026 should definitely at least lean to Dems, but as you mention Susan Collins has beaten the odds before. Time will tell if she becomes the GOP's Jon Tester or Sherrod Brown (potential comebacks from them notwithstanding.)
It's got nothing to do with Collins; from this day forward, it's 100% about Trump imo
How much Collins wins re-election by is another question assuming she does in fact get re-elected to the Senate.
One more fun fact about Susan Collins: she was an question to a Jeopardy answer tonight. "Hailing from Caribou, Maine, she is the longest serving woman in the Senate".'
In the same "Senators" category, Cory Booker, Marco Rubio, Bernie Sanders, and Tammy Baldwin were all questions or answers.
The fact that doctors are voting for him is egregious and really ought to lead to their being disciplined by the AMA. Right...
Elon Musk isn't running for office but as far as his influence in the polls is concerned, his unfavorability is at 52% for registered voters per a Civiqs polling conducted between December 18th 2024 - February 2nd.
Most of the unfavorability rating comes from Democrats and Independents. Musk is at a 48% unfavorable rating with Independents.
It's possible that if these kinds of unfavorable polling numbers continue they will certainly make an impact on the VA-GOV race as well as the 2026 midterms. Still early.
https://civiqs.com/results/favorable_elon_musk?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true
A 6 week poll?
I have no doubt he is not loved but those aren't particularly bad numbers
39-52 is pretty bad, and the slide has been recent (polling before the election generally had him no worse than even.) Civiqs numbers and methodology aren't gospel, but they do often seem to capture trends well, and Musk only has clear majority support among Republicans.
If these do hold then it's obviously bad news for the GOP, though I wouldn't advise making him personally the focus of Democrats' pitch to voters, especially if Trump decides there's room for only one ego of his size and sacks him. Musk's unpopularity will probably be reflective of the unpopularity of Trump and much of his agenda and record, so dumping him won't fix things politically, but I don't think we should rely too much on the "President Musk" theme--though some have pithily and effectively used it ("Elon Musk is a terrible President"--Tim Walz.)
We need to see a poll that is conducted in a compact time period. And recently – after Musk’s efforts to shutter USAID and gain access to government payment systems that handle $ 6 trillion per year.
Yes, that’s fair.
Again, it’s really early in the election cycle. However, it does show that Independents are divided on Musk and may very well be this way as he continues to disrupt government in an adverse way.
I’d be more focused on how the independents evolve. They are probably still trying to wait and see how things unfold in 2025.
Well, consider this: Less than one month into his presidency, Trump’s approval rating is 10% below where President Biden’s was at this point.
Granted, it’s hard to say for sure how much of that growing unpopularity is due to the actions of Elon Musk, or vice versa, but one thing seems certain: at least for now, Musk and Trump are joined at the hip.
Yeah, Musk and Trump are definitely tied together.
However, given independents are divided at this point as outlined in the poll, Musk isn’t doing anything right now that is going to move the needle for them. Remains to be seen.
The fact that it's not 90% speaks to how broken our country is.
We always over-estimate how much people are informed of this stuff. So many people just don't follow politics and of course the ones following RW media think this is just a normal presidency.
Certainly agreed....and those are two of the biggest puzzle pieces on why the country is so broken. The 48% of the population not horrified by what Musk is doing are never gonna be in an information ecosystem where their current perspective will be challenged.
I think it definitely has room to drop, given he's clearly driving the most extreme actions of the past two weeks.
I could be wrong, but I think Trump basically wants punishments on his enemies, the ability to fire civil servants, culture war wins and quasi-mercantilism (although as this week shows he'll renege if markets respond poorly). Musk wants some literally insane techno-libertarian state that if not checked is going to crash the economy. Lots of folks speculating on an eventual falling out but IMO we better pray it happens sooner than later. Lots of people going on about Project 2025 but that document is fucking moderate compared to what Musk seems to be after.
I saw speculation somewhere that Trump is content to let Musk be a meat shield for bad press… for the time being
I am not convinced it's actually as high as 48% but I agree completely with your overall premise
Sarah McBride looks more like a woman than Harriet Hageman imo.
I forget which comedian noted it, but Harriet Hageman looks like the drag version of George Santos. I can't unsee it
Lmao
The fact that the Maine Democratic party isn't running ads yet with a mashup of all the times Susan Collins said she was " disappointed" or "troubled" by Trumps actions is acute political malpractice.
Especially the one after Roe was overturned when she had assured the nation her tie-breaking vote for his nominees to the Supreme Court wouldn't end it.
Edit:
I looked up the Maine Democratic Committee on X and they have an almost inactive account. There is absolutely no information there attacking Susan Collins or any of Trumps actions thus far.
They apparently just elected a new Chair and Vice Chair but neither have social media either. This is insanity.
I encourage everyone here to email them or hit them up on X to get their asses I gear. This is alarming that a state party with a critical senate race coming in a year is anemic on social media. Wtf
chair@mainedems.org
https://x.com/MaineDems?t=opoGjpm0MnpNM9DU_j7IAQ&s=09
The election is next fall. How many people pay attention to political ads in February of a non-election year?
If resources were completely unlimited i'd start aggressively tying her to inflation from March through next November.
Resources aren't unlimited, but still, why?
Why not?
Because I don't think it'll have any effect on the election. I could be wrong, but what's the evidence that advertising this early does anything?
The earlier you can define your opponent in negative terms the more likely it is to for those terms to stick. Trying to cram a narrative into six months is harder then spending two years asking “why has 30 year career politician Susan Collins failed to bring prices down?” Feckless concerns have not lowered the price of groceries for Mainers” etc.
We have to be careful here.
Maine is a different state for Democrats in that advertising here has to be done appropriately that is going to fit the state but also target Collins accordingly.
We don’t want 2026 to be a repeat of 2020 where the DSCC’s involvement in the Senate race doomed Democratic Senate Candidate Sara Gideon from the outset.