What is the R-lean / Trump-lean of FL-01 and FL-06? The reward for a Democratic win in either is obviously huge – as are the odds against us. Any snowball’s chance in Pensacola that a good Blue candidate, duplicating Mike ZImmer’s 25-point Democratic swing in last night’s Iowa special election, could score an upset?
Edit: Looks like Gay Valimont lost by 32 percent against Matt Gaetz in November.
I am in Volusia County (District 7; not 6); member of the county DEC and we are going to be very active for Josh Weil; very difficult district to actually win..cutting into the margins is important
So encouraging to see that the Florida Democratic Party finally has their sh*t together! If I understand correctly, this November Dems ran a candidate in every single Florida legislative race. That indicates good party leadership and is precisely as it should be!
The only surefire way to keep losing is to fail to run a candidate.
Nationally, Democrats failed to challenge a thousand state-level legislative seats in 2024. That’s inexcusable political malpractice – never mind that the GOP failed to challenge 1300 races.
they won't be able to vote though.. Randy Fine lives 80 miles away from the district.. No part of the district includes Brevard.. I am Mills District 7; which actually contains portions of north Brevard but your parents might be in the district that the Republicans set up where they didn't have an election at all; only 1_ candidate filed for the open seat (not sure of the current district number but it used to be the old FL-15)
the current district number is now FL-8 and it was given freely to Haridopolus without any opposition from Republicans or Democrats (Democrats are not competitive in the district)
UPDATE: Clearly I have seriously underestimated the "snowball’s chance in Pensacola". I am told Pensacola and the Panhandle got nearly 10" of snow last week – and that there are plenty of snowballs even at the beach.
Not mentioned in the Morning Digest is the Minnesota special election. Yes, I know our Blue candidate was favored to win – but was anyone seriously expecting Doron Clark to score 91%, holding Abigail Wolters to a mere 9 (!) percent? Not even double-digit?? Surely such a monumental rout was not expected!
Well, the district did vote 82-14 for Harris. So it's actually only a modest overperformance. But good to see that Dems in special elections are still outperforming Harris even in urban districts that are already deep blue.
Understood. Frankly he'd be better off running in either Indiana or Florida. His VICIOUS anti LGBTQ attitude is too far right for Michigan. He also turns 71 next year so he'd have one or two terms at best.
I get it. As a lifelong Boston sports fan, I love the baseball Curt Schilling who pitched my beloved Red Sox to the World Series in 2004. I ABHOR his politics.
Side note: Some day, I hope Bostonians will learn to pronounce "Celtics" with an initial /k/, thus – rather than bowing to Latin – choosing to honor the ancient languages of Irish and Scottish Gaelic, Welsh, Cornish, Breton and Manx. It pains me to constantly hear Bostonians say Celtic with a soft /c/.
Jim Acosta resigns from rigtward-drifting CNN with a moving message:
"Today’s show was my last at CNN. My closing message: It’s never a good time to bow down to a tyrant… don’t give in to the lies. Don’t give in to fear. Hold on to the truth… and hope."
The Iowa special election is hopefully a harbinger of the pain the GOP will face this year and in 2026. Would love to see some upset statewide wins in Iowa next year, ie the Dem candidates unseating Joni Ernst and Kim Reynolds.
you are definitely allowed to use the word caution (it's your opinion after all) and I get that, but imo extreme caution sometimes borders on the ridiculous; taking that type district is a huge win(to make it even competitive is a huge indicator of the Trump second term environment and the chaos that's already a daily occurrence); someone here posted that Trump is already like -10 in approval rating and it's still JANUARY
Caution is the right way to go about it. That said, I do have more optimism for special election overperformance portending a good midterm than I do for it portending a good presidential election. Not that it's definitive either way.
Agreed. In my head, this shows that damn near every Dem showed up to vote while the GOP had typical voter drop-off in a special, giving us a tiny win. The drop-off will be much less in a midterm but if Dems are operating at Pres year strength and the GOP is operating at midterm year strength, the GOP loses big time.
I decided the best way to do this was to look at years that a state switched senators, and then checking if there was an open gubernatorial election in that same year.
I picked Massachusetts and NH, as the two states I care most about. The former I want to be my home, the latter that currently is my home. Short answer: NH=2002, MA=1944.
For Massachusetts I initially thought it had never occurred, but I missed that they had two year terms up until 1966. Upon noticing that, I realized it occurred in 1944. I believe this is the only time Massachusetts had both an open senate and gubernatorial election. Wouldn't hurt to have someone double check that since I initially missed 1944.
More details:
MA's open senate seats that were filled in an even year November election, working backwards: 2010, 1984, 1966, 1962 (special), 1944 (special), and 1930. There were no other open seat senate elections that occurred after the 17th amendment was adopted and MA switched to electing senators by popular vote. Of those years, gubernatorial elections were held in: 2010, 1966, 1962, 1944, and 1930. Incumbents Patrick (2010), Volpe (1966), Volpe (1962), and Allen (1930) ran for the governor's office.
For NH we have: 2010, and 2002. This was a lot less work. 2002 was an open seat for both the senate and gubernatorial elections. Shaheen left the governor's office open to run for the senate, and John Sununu beat the incumbent republican senator in a primary. Before that, it also occurred in 1992. Pre-1980 senate elections in NH seem to be missing wikipedia pages, removing my easy way to check if there was an incumbent running.
Was excited to look this up thinking it’d be interesting. Nope, gut punch. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash 11 days before Election Day in 2002, thus creating an open seat to go with the open seat for Governor. Fuuuuuckkk. Thanks David. Making me have a little cry on the couch.
Maryland: 1986. Virginia: 1977-78, defined as in the same Congress or cycle between a presidential and midterm race, such as 2023-24 or 2025-26, with the odd numbered year first. (Of course in VA every gubernatorial race is open.)
For MI senate, I love both Mallory McMorrow and Pete Buttigieg. Both are young, super-talented and fearless in facing down MAGA.
The IA state senate race is remarkable. Mike Zimmer's win represents a +25 swing just from last November. The way Democrats are cleaning up in off-year elections puts the lie to The Felon's claim of some massive 'mandate from the American people.'
I could get behind Dana Nessel, too. We have an embarrassment of riches on our side. The Democratic bench is deep and impressive in most places; MI is a good example.
I would prefer Pete Buttigieg. IMHO he is way too talented for us Democrats to waste. I won't be heartbroken though if Mallory McMorrow wins. We need more young talent within the Democratic Party.
Agree with you entirely. Perhaps Pete has higher ambitions; I suspect he does, and rightfully so. But a few years' honing in the Senate would set him up Obama-style for a presidential run in 2028.
Pete Buttigieg should immediately put his impressive communication skills to good use by becoming a loud and often-heard voice in the Democratic opposition to Trump’s implementation of his Project 2025 agenda.
I support Timothy Snyder’s idea of Democrats launching a Shadow Cabinet, which is common practice in numerous European countries. Buttigieg needs to be an integral part of that effort.
It's a common practice in our brethren Anglosphere countries. It just never took hold here because we are a presidential country and not a parliamentary country.
Imho, forming a Shadow Cabinet is a way for Democrats to have a stronger voice and be heard. Exceptional times call for exceptional measures – including borrowing what works in parliamentary systems.
Today, Democratic voices have an exceptionally hard time competing with the narrative that is set by a powerful right-wing ecosphere and the infotainment news media.
I love this idea. We need to show the contrast between the two sides. Having an actual Doctor as HHS (Although I know Becerra wasn't a doctor) would be a great juxtaposition with a psycho like RFK Jr. We need to find ways to combat the Conservative Media Machine and this is a start.
As the name indicates, the Shadow Cabinet can and should consist of multiple people, each with expertise and credibility on different topics. An absolute requirement is that all of them highly articulate and able to speak in a manner that connects with ordinary Americans.
That said, I would love to see the Democratic Party engage Pete Buttigieg as a general ad-hoc, go-to spokesman.
Absolutely not Buttigieg. He’s not from Michigan, periodt. As great as he is to politicos, it’s not going to translate well to regular voters. He can explain policy all he wants but this last election should have taught us that people don’t understand or care about policy. He can’t rely on Michigan charm bc he doesn’t have a childhood from there and no anecdotal stories.
He’s just gonna be some really smart, good talking white guy. That’s so boring. Does he even swear? Even a little?
I think Buttigieg's ideal role is just as sort of a spokesman who can get the party's message out in various media outlets. He's excellent at fielding questions and explaining things but I don't see any evidence that he's that strong electorally. He comes across as too Ivy League and I think he appeals mainly to educated center-left good government types who always vote Dem anyway.
I don’t see Granholm’s age to be the issue so much as her long absence from elected office.
Granholm served as Governor of Michigan from 2003-2011. Not only did she get elected and re-elected when Bush Jr was POTUS, she left office after the Tea Party wave arrived in 2010. Granholm I don’t see to be battle tested or at least savvy enough in today’s political environment.
If Granholm really wanted to be a Senator, she'd probably have run earlier. Even if you limit it to open seats, she passed up opportunities in 2014 (when her governorship was fresher in peoples' minds, though not always positively) and 2024.
By 2026 it'll have been 20 years since she was last on a ballot, though of course she's done a lot of worthy stuff since leaving office. Fortunately our MI bench is big enough that we aren't reliant on a few stars or past officeholders to win.
I think Granholm may have not wanted to have a political career for the rest of her life. Her actions since she left office as Governor have suggested this although she did speak at the 2012 DNC Convention.
Yes, the bench of choices for Democrats running in the Senate is quite wide.
We have a good bench for 2028 but we need to build our bench for future national tickets. We need to elect senators in purple states that can use their incumbency as an advantage to hold that seat for more than an extra 1-2 terms. There are a bare handful of cases where a freshman senator in their mid 60s or later makes sense.
It's also not universal but younger officials are often far more willing and able to recognize the vileness of the modern republican party and that we need to respond to them more forcefully and more seriously rather than with the same old congeniality of decades past.
Her not having faced voters since 2006 is an equally large issue.
I would be surprised. I don't think she's lived in Michigan for a while. After she left office, I believe she moved back to California (where she grew up) to join the faculty at Berkeley. And for the last four years, of course, she's been in DC as a member of Biden's cabinet.
Coincidentally, Janet Napolitano, who was elected and re-elected as Governor of Arizona during the 2002 and 2006 midterms like Granholm, had become President of the University of California from 2013-2020.
Judge MCCONNELL will *grant* the restraining order, saying the withdrawal of the "hugely ambiguous" OMB order is only a distinction without a difference "based on comments by the president’s press secretary.”
It's more of a gamble but I'd like to see Shaheen take the chance to retire. She will be 80 in 2026.
Sununu running is always a risk and he'd be a dangerous opponent, even in a midterm that favors us — but he's going to be a danger to us either in 2026 or 2032, regardless of which she chooses to retire.
Pappas is a perfect potential successor. I don't like Goodlander and 2026 is too early for her to try and jump to the senate, so that works well. Similarly, Ayotte will hurt herself if she abandons the governorship after a single term to run to be back in the senate.
The 2026 midterm is the perfect opportunity for Shaheen to retire.
Durbin is also at the top of my list. Jack Reed and Ed Markey would be wise to retire as well. Markey got his career capstone and beat a Kennedy in a primary and doesn't have anywhere else to move up as a senator. Plus, I want to see Pressley have a chance to be senator before many of the newer crappy moderate reps in Massachusetts have a chance to build up their career to the point of being credible senate candidates.
Agreed. And especially at her age? She’s already lived a lifetime. 6 more years of this and risk losing in 2032 or retire now and set-up a successor in what should be a disastrous midterm for the GOP?
Warner I'd like to see retire but he's one tier below Shaheen, Durbin, and Markey. He could serve one more term acceptably at his age. Not ideal but he wouldn't be at risk of being another Feinstein.
I don't know how he's going to approach it, but I'd hazard a guess that if he is considering retirement that he's going to wait until after Virginia's elections this year to announce it.
What would our bench be for Virginia anyway? All of our representatives are either freshmen or ancient. McAuliffe and Northam could technically run, but they're barely younger than Warner. McAuliffe torched his reputation by losing to Youngkin and Northam isn't any better after the blackface photos came about. Giving up a state senate seat, even temporarily, could be a disaster after this year's elections and state delegates aren't going to have much of a profile to start with. All the current executive offices are held by republicans, and if that changes our officials will all be in their first year of office for the 2026 elections.
Senior Justice Department officials under President Trump have held discussions with federal prosecutors in Manhattan about the possibility of dropping their corruption case against Mayor Eric Adams of New York, according to five people with knowledge of the matter.
The officials have also spoken to Mr. Adams’s defense team since Mr. Trump took office, the people said. The defense team is led by Alex Spiro, who is also the personal lawyer for Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and one of the president’s closest advisers.
One of the least shocking cases of corruption to pop up. Adams was already a very Trump-like figure and was engaged in ass-kissing exactly for this purpose. At least New Yorkers seem to hate him, but if the field is fragmented enough his presence could take up enough oxygen to give Cuomo the win.
I know it's a fat chance but if the charges are dropped it would be nice if a future dem admin picked them back up. Corruption being let off the hook arbitrarily is a horrible precedent to continue.
A judge sentenced an emotional former Sen. Bob Menendez to 11 years in prison Wednesday for a years-long bribery and corruption scheme that saw him rewarded with gold bars and stacks of cash.
Menendez had pleaded with U.S. District Judge Sidney Stein for mercy, twice breaking down in tears.
“I have lost everything,” the New Jersey Democrat said, after recounting actions he said he had taken to help others while in the Senate, a job he was forced to resign after his conviction.
“For a man who spent his entire life in public service, every day I am awake is a punishment,” said Menendez, who was chair of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the time he took the payoffs.
The judge appeared unmoved, and noted that while he had done some positive work, the evidence against him was "overwhelming" and he had failed the voters of New Jersey.
"Somewhere along the way you became, I'm sorry to say, a corrupt politician," Stein told him before handing down his sentence.
Crocodile tears..fuck him..excuse my language but he brings shame to the Democratic party at a time where we can't focus solely on Trump's corruption because our own house is not in order
Senator Menendez was a thorn in President Obama’s side from the moment he entered the White House. Obama had campaigned on the need for a new approach to Cuba, but Menendez was having none of it. Before the election, he warned Obama, “If you want my support, I don’t want you making any policy changes on Cuba without consulting me.”
What is the R-lean / Trump-lean of FL-01 and FL-06? The reward for a Democratic win in either is obviously huge – as are the odds against us. Any snowball’s chance in Pensacola that a good Blue candidate, duplicating Mike ZImmer’s 25-point Democratic swing in last night’s Iowa special election, could score an upset?
Edit: Looks like Gay Valimont lost by 32 percent against Matt Gaetz in November.
I am in Volusia County (District 7; not 6); member of the county DEC and we are going to be very active for Josh Weil; very difficult district to actually win..cutting into the margins is important
So encouraging to see that the Florida Democratic Party finally has their sh*t together! If I understand correctly, this November Dems ran a candidate in every single Florida legislative race. That indicates good party leadership and is precisely as it should be!
The only surefire way to keep losing is to fail to run a candidate.
Nationally, Democrats failed to challenge a thousand state-level legislative seats in 2024. That’s inexcusable political malpractice – never mind that the GOP failed to challenge 1300 races.
exactly; and the state Republicans are in civil war (however, I must say that the Ashley Moody selection was good politics)
Randy Fine seems to follow my father but he moved into a new house in the 6th from Brevard, will remind them to vote in the special.
they won't be able to vote though.. Randy Fine lives 80 miles away from the district.. No part of the district includes Brevard.. I am Mills District 7; which actually contains portions of north Brevard but your parents might be in the district that the Republicans set up where they didn't have an election at all; only 1_ candidate filed for the open seat (not sure of the current district number but it used to be the old FL-15)
the current district number is now FL-8 and it was given freely to Haridopolus without any opposition from Republicans or Democrats (Democrats are not competitive in the district)
Yeah my father moved from Brevard to Flagler a couple years ago.
gotcha
at least your father lives in the district now; Randy Fine is not allowed to actually vote for himself.. Lol
UPDATE: Clearly I have seriously underestimated the "snowball’s chance in Pensacola". I am told Pensacola and the Panhandle got nearly 10" of snow last week – and that there are plenty of snowballs even at the beach.
Might break a record high tomorrow in MN and get to 50 degrees. Insane for January. MN has been having a fantastically weird winter. Again.
Not mentioned in the Morning Digest is the Minnesota special election. Yes, I know our Blue candidate was favored to win – but was anyone seriously expecting Doron Clark to score 91%, holding Abigail Wolters to a mere 9 (!) percent? Not even double-digit?? Surely such a monumental rout was not expected!
https://www.cbsnews.com/minnesota/news/election-minnesota-senate-results-doron-clark-abigail-wolters/Doron Clark’s
91% is a crazy ass whipping win
Well, the district did vote 82-14 for Harris. So it's actually only a modest overperformance. But good to see that Dems in special elections are still outperforming Harris even in urban districts that are already deep blue.
Yes, 14 points.
LOLOLOLOL
Tony Dungy
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
What about Tony Dungy? Did he just say something viciously anti LGBTQ again?
In the digest👆👆👆👆
Understood. Frankly he'd be better off running in either Indiana or Florida. His VICIOUS anti LGBTQ attitude is too far right for Michigan. He also turns 71 next year so he'd have one or two terms at best.
I am Buccaneers fan, I love the football Tony; never will he actually be elected imo
I get it. As a lifelong Boston sports fan, I love the baseball Curt Schilling who pitched my beloved Red Sox to the World Series in 2004. I ABHOR his politics.
As a lifelong Boston sports fan, I enjoyed watching Tony Dungy lose to the Patriots a lot.
Side note: Some day, I hope Bostonians will learn to pronounce "Celtics" with an initial /k/, thus – rather than bowing to Latin – choosing to honor the ancient languages of Irish and Scottish Gaelic, Welsh, Cornish, Breton and Manx. It pains me to constantly hear Bostonians say Celtic with a soft /c/.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1M2eRQUYYk
(Ducks to avoid rotten sucumbers and avosados.)
Jim Acosta resigns from rigtward-drifting CNN with a moving message:
"Today’s show was my last at CNN. My closing message: It’s never a good time to bow down to a tyrant… don’t give in to the lies. Don’t give in to fear. Hold on to the truth… and hope."
https://bsky.app/profile/jimacosta.bsky.social/post/3lgt2cjz5rc2h
Well the rioters are in the buildings, only these guys can read and write
The Iowa special election is hopefully a harbinger of the pain the GOP will face this year and in 2026. Would love to see some upset statewide wins in Iowa next year, ie the Dem candidates unseating Joni Ernst and Kim Reynolds.
It's definitely a start and bodes well for the out party
I think Mark’s caution in the digest last night (it’s his home state after all) is warranted but there’s no way to read it as *bad* news, by any means
you are definitely allowed to use the word caution (it's your opinion after all) and I get that, but imo extreme caution sometimes borders on the ridiculous; taking that type district is a huge win(to make it even competitive is a huge indicator of the Trump second term environment and the chaos that's already a daily occurrence); someone here posted that Trump is already like -10 in approval rating and it's still JANUARY
Oh, sure. There’s no way to interpret it as bad news!
Caution is the right way to go about it. That said, I do have more optimism for special election overperformance portending a good midterm than I do for it portending a good presidential election. Not that it's definitive either way.
I think the important part is that we are now the out party
Agreed. In my head, this shows that damn near every Dem showed up to vote while the GOP had typical voter drop-off in a special, giving us a tiny win. The drop-off will be much less in a midterm but if Dems are operating at Pres year strength and the GOP is operating at midterm year strength, the GOP loses big time.
Exactly
Same - seems like it’s a better correlation
It's sort of crazy that it took over 100 years for the Michigan scenario to play out (open governor and senator)
I'd be curious to know when this situation last arose in each state!
true that
IIRC, the answer for California is 1982.
In Connecticut it was 2010. And despite the terrible year overall for Dems, we still managed to win both.
Arizona is 1986.
I decided the best way to do this was to look at years that a state switched senators, and then checking if there was an open gubernatorial election in that same year.
I picked Massachusetts and NH, as the two states I care most about. The former I want to be my home, the latter that currently is my home. Short answer: NH=2002, MA=1944.
For Massachusetts I initially thought it had never occurred, but I missed that they had two year terms up until 1966. Upon noticing that, I realized it occurred in 1944. I believe this is the only time Massachusetts had both an open senate and gubernatorial election. Wouldn't hurt to have someone double check that since I initially missed 1944.
More details:
MA's open senate seats that were filled in an even year November election, working backwards: 2010, 1984, 1966, 1962 (special), 1944 (special), and 1930. There were no other open seat senate elections that occurred after the 17th amendment was adopted and MA switched to electing senators by popular vote. Of those years, gubernatorial elections were held in: 2010, 1966, 1962, 1944, and 1930. Incumbents Patrick (2010), Volpe (1966), Volpe (1962), and Allen (1930) ran for the governor's office.
For NH we have: 2010, and 2002. This was a lot less work. 2002 was an open seat for both the senate and gubernatorial elections. Shaheen left the governor's office open to run for the senate, and John Sununu beat the incumbent republican senator in a primary. Before that, it also occurred in 1992. Pre-1980 senate elections in NH seem to be missing wikipedia pages, removing my easy way to check if there was an incumbent running.
Was excited to look this up thinking it’d be interesting. Nope, gut punch. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash 11 days before Election Day in 2002, thus creating an open seat to go with the open seat for Governor. Fuuuuuckkk. Thanks David. Making me have a little cry on the couch.
Maryland: 1986. Virginia: 1977-78, defined as in the same Congress or cycle between a presidential and midterm race, such as 2023-24 or 2025-26, with the odd numbered year first. (Of course in VA every gubernatorial race is open.)
For MI senate, I love both Mallory McMorrow and Pete Buttigieg. Both are young, super-talented and fearless in facing down MAGA.
The IA state senate race is remarkable. Mike Zimmer's win represents a +25 swing just from last November. The way Democrats are cleaning up in off-year elections puts the lie to The Felon's claim of some massive 'mandate from the American people.'
I am personally for Nessel above all others but the list for our side is loaded with impressive candidates
I could get behind Dana Nessel, too. We have an embarrassment of riches on our side. The Democratic bench is deep and impressive in most places; MI is a good example.
I’m partial to Mallory McMorrow myself
I would prefer Pete Buttigieg. IMHO he is way too talented for us Democrats to waste. I won't be heartbroken though if Mallory McMorrow wins. We need more young talent within the Democratic Party.
Agree with you entirely. Perhaps Pete has higher ambitions; I suspect he does, and rightfully so. But a few years' honing in the Senate would set him up Obama-style for a presidential run in 2028.
Pete Buttigieg should immediately put his impressive communication skills to good use by becoming a loud and often-heard voice in the Democratic opposition to Trump’s implementation of his Project 2025 agenda.
I support Timothy Snyder’s idea of Democrats launching a Shadow Cabinet, which is common practice in numerous European countries. Buttigieg needs to be an integral part of that effort.
It's a common practice in our brethren Anglosphere countries. It just never took hold here because we are a presidential country and not a parliamentary country.
Imho, forming a Shadow Cabinet is a way for Democrats to have a stronger voice and be heard. Exceptional times call for exceptional measures – including borrowing what works in parliamentary systems.
Today, Democratic voices have an exceptionally hard time competing with the narrative that is set by a powerful right-wing ecosphere and the infotainment news media.
Believe me, as both a lifelong Anglophile and (constitutional) monarchist, you won't find ANY objection from yours truly about that.
I love this idea. We need to show the contrast between the two sides. Having an actual Doctor as HHS (Although I know Becerra wasn't a doctor) would be a great juxtaposition with a psycho like RFK Jr. We need to find ways to combat the Conservative Media Machine and this is a start.
The idea is a good one and has been suggested by others. Go course, it has gone nowhere with the Democratic “leadership” in Washington.
Democratic Leadership is an oxymoron.
This needs to be done. It will draw a distinctive contrast and give the media a go to person from the Democratic Party for a response.
As the name indicates, the Shadow Cabinet can and should consist of multiple people, each with expertise and credibility on different topics. An absolute requirement is that all of them highly articulate and able to speak in a manner that connects with ordinary Americans.
That said, I would love to see the Democratic Party engage Pete Buttigieg as a general ad-hoc, go-to spokesman.
Absolutely not Buttigieg. He’s not from Michigan, periodt. As great as he is to politicos, it’s not going to translate well to regular voters. He can explain policy all he wants but this last election should have taught us that people don’t understand or care about policy. He can’t rely on Michigan charm bc he doesn’t have a childhood from there and no anecdotal stories.
He’s just gonna be some really smart, good talking white guy. That’s so boring. Does he even swear? Even a little?
I think Buttigieg's ideal role is just as sort of a spokesman who can get the party's message out in various media outlets. He's excellent at fielding questions and explaining things but I don't see any evidence that he's that strong electorally. He comes across as too Ivy League and I think he appeals mainly to educated center-left good government types who always vote Dem anyway.
Might Jennifer Granholm become a candidate for the Michigan Senate seat?
Hopefully not. I like her but she's 65. I would love to give someone like Buttigieg or Gilcrest a shot or some other up and commer like McMorrow
I don’t see Granholm’s age to be the issue so much as her long absence from elected office.
Granholm served as Governor of Michigan from 2003-2011. Not only did she get elected and re-elected when Bush Jr was POTUS, she left office after the Tea Party wave arrived in 2010. Granholm I don’t see to be battle tested or at least savvy enough in today’s political environment.
If Granholm really wanted to be a Senator, she'd probably have run earlier. Even if you limit it to open seats, she passed up opportunities in 2014 (when her governorship was fresher in peoples' minds, though not always positively) and 2024.
By 2026 it'll have been 20 years since she was last on a ballot, though of course she's done a lot of worthy stuff since leaving office. Fortunately our MI bench is big enough that we aren't reliant on a few stars or past officeholders to win.
I think Granholm may have not wanted to have a political career for the rest of her life. Her actions since she left office as Governor have suggested this although she did speak at the 2012 DNC Convention.
Yes, the bench of choices for Democrats running in the Senate is quite wide.
Both are issues IMO.
We have a good bench for 2028 but we need to build our bench for future national tickets. We need to elect senators in purple states that can use their incumbency as an advantage to hold that seat for more than an extra 1-2 terms. There are a bare handful of cases where a freshman senator in their mid 60s or later makes sense.
It's also not universal but younger officials are often far more willing and able to recognize the vileness of the modern republican party and that we need to respond to them more forcefully and more seriously rather than with the same old congeniality of decades past.
Her not having faced voters since 2006 is an equally large issue.
I would be surprised. I don't think she's lived in Michigan for a while. After she left office, I believe she moved back to California (where she grew up) to join the faculty at Berkeley. And for the last four years, of course, she's been in DC as a member of Biden's cabinet.
Coincidentally, Janet Napolitano, who was elected and re-elected as Governor of Arizona during the 2002 and 2006 midterms like Granholm, had become President of the University of California from 2013-2020.
The freeze is unfrozen. https://x.com/PeterAlexander/status/1884661943715176503/photo/1
Moots the federal case presumably; they must have misjudged the potential backlash
Not so fast. They may be trying to pull a fast one.
https://x.com/SenWhitehouse/status/1884699212618621375
And the judge is apparently upholding his TRO due to the mixed messages.
Judge MCCONNELL will *grant* the restraining order, saying the withdrawal of the "hugely ambiguous" OMB order is only a distinction without a difference "based on comments by the president’s press secretary.”
This is in the action brought by the state AG’s.
Good move by Peters. Midterm election forecasting backlash to Trump is a good time to retire to help newcomer win.
Dems have others who should follow suit. Durbin, for example. And maybe Mark Warner and Hick.
It's more of a gamble but I'd like to see Shaheen take the chance to retire. She will be 80 in 2026.
Sununu running is always a risk and he'd be a dangerous opponent, even in a midterm that favors us — but he's going to be a danger to us either in 2026 or 2032, regardless of which she chooses to retire.
Pappas is a perfect potential successor. I don't like Goodlander and 2026 is too early for her to try and jump to the senate, so that works well. Similarly, Ayotte will hurt herself if she abandons the governorship after a single term to run to be back in the senate.
The 2026 midterm is the perfect opportunity for Shaheen to retire.
Durbin is also at the top of my list. Jack Reed and Ed Markey would be wise to retire as well. Markey got his career capstone and beat a Kennedy in a primary and doesn't have anywhere else to move up as a senator. Plus, I want to see Pressley have a chance to be senator before many of the newer crappy moderate reps in Massachusetts have a chance to build up their career to the point of being credible senate candidates.
I agree. Shaheen can win of course but New Hampshire will still elect Republicans so let's have a young Pappas run next year in a decent environment
Agreed. And especially at her age? She’s already lived a lifetime. 6 more years of this and risk losing in 2032 or retire now and set-up a successor in what should be a disastrous midterm for the GOP?
Shaheen, Durbin and Markey are top of my list
Warner probably should start considering hanging up the spurs but he’s a good fit for his state
Warner I'd like to see retire but he's one tier below Shaheen, Durbin, and Markey. He could serve one more term acceptably at his age. Not ideal but he wouldn't be at risk of being another Feinstein.
I don't know how he's going to approach it, but I'd hazard a guess that if he is considering retirement that he's going to wait until after Virginia's elections this year to announce it.
What would our bench be for Virginia anyway? All of our representatives are either freshmen or ancient. McAuliffe and Northam could technically run, but they're barely younger than Warner. McAuliffe torched his reputation by losing to Youngkin and Northam isn't any better after the blackface photos came about. Giving up a state senate seat, even temporarily, could be a disaster after this year's elections and state delegates aren't going to have much of a profile to start with. All the current executive offices are held by republicans, and if that changes our officials will all be in their first year of office for the 2026 elections.
McClellan is much younger than the Scott/Beyer/Connolly triad
I thought she was older for some reason. My mistake. At 52 she's definitely young enough to be a viable senate candidate.
Alexander Vindman potentially?
He was just elected to the House. Giving up his seat after one term is a bad look.
Maybe Luria? That’s the only other viable candidate I could think of besides McClellan.
I would prefer Warner retire in a Presidential Election year.
Durbin needs to retire NOW. Underwood is ready to go and ready to fight more than he is. Get rid of all the Dems who are too timid to fight.
Reed has a lot of potential replacements. Raimondo, Magaziner, and Amo being the most obvious.
Durbin has Casten, Raja, and Underwood.
For 2028 the obvious retirement candidates are Blumenthal, Schumer, Wyden, Welch, and Murray. 2030 has Sanders, Warren, Hirono, and King.
Sanders won't retire above ground
Senior Justice Department officials under President Trump have held discussions with federal prosecutors in Manhattan about the possibility of dropping their corruption case against Mayor Eric Adams of New York, according to five people with knowledge of the matter.
The officials have also spoken to Mr. Adams’s defense team since Mr. Trump took office, the people said. The defense team is led by Alex Spiro, who is also the personal lawyer for Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and one of the president’s closest advisers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/29/us/politics/justice-department-trump-charges-eric-adams.html
One of the least shocking cases of corruption to pop up. Adams was already a very Trump-like figure and was engaged in ass-kissing exactly for this purpose. At least New Yorkers seem to hate him, but if the field is fragmented enough his presence could take up enough oxygen to give Cuomo the win.
I know it's a fat chance but if the charges are dropped it would be nice if a future dem admin picked them back up. Corruption being let off the hook arbitrarily is a horrible precedent to continue.
Robert Menendez is given an 11 year sentence. Remains to be seen whether the “No Such Thing as Corruption” Supreme Court will uphold his conviction.
Former NJ Senator Bob Menendez has been sentenced to 11 years in prison.
I'm grateful to see my father's home state represented now by Senator Andy Kim, a substantial improvement over Menendez.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/former-sen-bob-menendez-sentenced-gold-bar-bribery-case-rcna189044
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A judge sentenced an emotional former Sen. Bob Menendez to 11 years in prison Wednesday for a years-long bribery and corruption scheme that saw him rewarded with gold bars and stacks of cash.
Menendez had pleaded with U.S. District Judge Sidney Stein for mercy, twice breaking down in tears.
“I have lost everything,” the New Jersey Democrat said, after recounting actions he said he had taken to help others while in the Senate, a job he was forced to resign after his conviction.
“For a man who spent his entire life in public service, every day I am awake is a punishment,” said Menendez, who was chair of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee at the time he took the payoffs.
The judge appeared unmoved, and noted that while he had done some positive work, the evidence against him was "overwhelming" and he had failed the voters of New Jersey.
"Somewhere along the way you became, I'm sorry to say, a corrupt politician," Stein told him before handing down his sentence.
Crocodile tears..fuck him..excuse my language but he brings shame to the Democratic party at a time where we can't focus solely on Trump's corruption because our own house is not in order
I might add that I've never considered Adams a Democratic candidate where as clearly Menendez is and always has been
That's fair, though his policy on Cuba was certainly not good.
After I read your comment, I took a look at this piece by the Nation.
Menendez was even a dick to President Obama on his policy towards Cuba.
https://www.thenation.com/article/world/cuba-harris-menendez-corruption-diplomacy/
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Senator Menendez was a thorn in President Obama’s side from the moment he entered the White House. Obama had campaigned on the need for a new approach to Cuba, but Menendez was having none of it. Before the election, he warned Obama, “If you want my support, I don’t want you making any policy changes on Cuba without consulting me.”