Late last night, Toby of MGData posted updated Early Vote numbers from Wisconsin. Lots of analysis and details on his feed. Here are the top numbers heading into Election Day:
– Mail Ballot Requests: 386,429 (Deadline has passed)
– Mail Ballot Returns: 283,546 (73.86% return rate, +28,195 from Friday)
– IPAV*: 361,254 (55.60% of ballots cast, +72,730 from Friday)
2023 numbers for comparison:
– 329,400 Mail Ballot Requests (Gap +57,029)
– 235,538 Mail Ballot Returns (Gap +48,208, +2,912 from Friday)
– 71.44% Mail Return Rate (Gap +2.42%, -0.42% from Friday)
– 174,417 IPAV (Gap +186,837, +41,076 from Friday)
"There’s no party registration data in Wisconsin, but our estimates nonetheless indicate that early voters are more Democratic-leaning than they were last November, and would have backed Ms. Harris by more than 20 points."
FWIW, my mom is a Wisco voter, and she votes on election day now because she worries about GOP shenanigans with vote-by-mail/early voting. Wonder if other dem voters are moving in that direction.
Before Election Day, Wisconsin has had a total of 644,800 Early Votes. That is 57.3 % (!!!) more than the 409,955 Early Votes that were cast in Wisconsin’s 2023 Supreme Court Special Election.
... which now WISC Justice Protasiewicz won by 10 points! I don't think Crawford is likely to hit that margin like Janet and Jill Karofsky did, but fingers crossed she wins by a big margin nonetheless.
Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic House leader, on Monday accused Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas of deliberately delaying a special election in a solidly Democratic district in Houston in order to cushion the House Republicans’ slim majority.
A spokesman for Mr. Abbott declined to address the Democrats’ criticisms and to say whether the governor had spoken with House Republicans about the Houston seat.
“An announcement on a special election will be made at a later date,” the spokesman, Andrew Mahaleris, said in a statement.
There's definitely a little bit of "what's good for the goose is good for the gander" here, given that Jeffries was one of the people encouraging the New York legislature to rewrite the law there to allow Hochul to keep NY-21 open as long as possible. Swift special elections should be the standard everywhere and the Governor should have very limited discretion to futz with the date.
This just shows how incompetent the Democratic “leadership” is.
The sorta things are like “ you don’t advertise it, you just do it”. They advertised before there was even a vacancy. Well at least they pretend to be working.
They have a history of not fighting. Their actions show they don't care about being called out for not fighting. Worry about being criticized as not fighting is not an excuse for making tactically poor political choices.
Further, if they are worried about that, what's better for avoiding being "slagged" in the future?
(A) Saying or implying they will use a specific avenue to fight republicans, but either they do not do it or it is ultimately immaterial.
Or, (B) Fighting republicans when they actually have some level of power to do so?
Am I the only person who thinks special elections in general are a waste of time and resources?
I'd be fine with a constitutional amendment (or some other election-related legislation), stating that when House/Senate seats are vacated they are filled at the next general election (so, for example the two Florida seats would be filled in November 2025, as that is the closest general election).
Upping what David put yesterday now that it’s April 1:
“ A reminder: April Fool's jokes are prohibited on this site. This is a long-standing policy. Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. Thank you.”
I’ve seen bad April Fool’s jokes like you wouldn’t believe that people treated as real. Mark Warner retiring in 2019. Joe Manchin joining the GOP in 2021. Donna Shalala running against Marco Rubio in 2021. They were all unpleasant to deal with.
true...but the Dodgers pitch by committee; Dustin May will go 5 innings max. So 3 or 4 relievers also need to pitch no hitter...would be nice but unlikely. How about this for a money machine: Chilly Monday night and Dodgers put over 50k fans in Dodger Stadium.
"No hitter by committee" is easily the most depressing development in baseball in my lifetime. As a fan who was always most invested in the role of the starting pitcher, baseball will never be the same for me.
Congressman Ron Wright (R-TX) died of Covid on February 7, 2021. Governor Greg Abbott immediately called a special election to fill Wright's empty seat for May 1, 2021. The governor's celerity may be explained by the fact that Texas 6th Congressional District is heavily Republican. The two top vote-getters in the special election were Republican Susan Wright and Republican Jake Ellzey. The victor in the run-off was Ellzey.
It's representative of why the GOP doesn't have it's shit together on just about everything, even an issue so low bar as this. If John Boehner was House Speaker, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna would have likely seen her legislation be voted on and signed into law.
Unless GOP leadership including Mike Johnson Luna believes Luna's making the narrative harder for the GOP in light of Trump pushing federal office workers to go back to work onsite. Johnson & others have said the legislation is "unconstitutional" but they are really contracting themselves considering that there's nothing in the constitution that forbids any members of Congress (House and Senate) to vote remotely while raising children.
Luna didn't do this alone. She worked with two Democratic Reps Brittany Pettersen and Sara Jacobs along with moderate Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.
Plenty of the GOP, not just Mike Johnson, have been pulling the “not constitutional” or “it’s not in the constitution crap for over a decade. Even Ron Paul, the so-called godfather of the Tea Party, pulled this crap before when he was in the House. It’s as if the GOP looks at the constitution like they think it’s a Bible.
They really have no idea what they’re talking about. Besides what you’ve mentioned, just because something isn’t mentioned in writing in the Constitution doesn’t mean it should be dismissed. I mean, what is the point of Congress then if we have to legislate exactly what the Constitution dictates?
Right although being that women are increasing in population and in positions of power and influence in both business and politics, it's not good optics to be dismissive to women who are giving birth to children and working at the same time.
Per what Paleo is citing in the data, Independent voter turnout is dropping a bit.
However, with Independents we don't always know if they will stay Independent or if they end up eventually moving to either the Democratic or Republican Party. It depends on how their ideology has evolved.
It appears that FL Independents are more middle road, moderate voters who aren't necessarily inclined to being loyalists to either political party. That said, cost of living, inflation and the abortion issue seem to be factors for independents.
Realistically this special election shouldn't be promising.
Reminds me a lot of GA-06 special election in 2017. It was an unlikely pickup from the start, but dems got excited about it because there was a non-zero chance we would win.
Even losing this district by 15 points tonight would be an enormous overperformance. We need to keep everything in perspective when we assess whatever the results might be. In the end Wisconsin has long been the most important race happening today.
Voters today will probably lean Republican too (although not a guarantee). I’d guess Fine will win with 55-56% which would still be a pretty big over performance for Dems.
Doing some back of the napkin addition: if that level of Dem over performance was universal across the country in 2026, some 35+ house republicans would be at risk. Anyone who won with under 60% of the vote in 2024 would be in the danger zone.
I know that Barbara Lee is a longtime progressive face but Loren Taylor is a very pragmatic governance and housing focused liberal of the Matt Mahan mold. I personally feel that Progressives make great Senators but not great governors and Mayors.
Oakland's problems have nothing to do with being ideologically liberal or moderate. They have to do with institutional problems with city government and how it's been able to manage things in keeping the city together.
Originally Jean Quan was elected as Mayor back in 2010 as a progressive but she became arrogant in her handling of the Occupy Oakland protests and was not exactly uniting the city. Then Libby Schaaf, more moderate than Quan, got elected for two terms but ended up on her watch not only losing the A's, Raiders and Warriors but also not even being proactive on addressing the pressing homeless and encampment situation. Sheng Thao ran as a progressive but was really corrupt the whole time as the FBI investigation has revealed.
Loren Taylor would be fine as Mayor but he's got a lot to clean up in the city. He needs to be community oriented to bring the city together or it's going to be much tougher for him to unite the city.
So who do we think is the best candidate for Georgia governor? Lucy McBath isn't running and i seriously doubt round 3 for Stacey Abrams will excite voters
Wikipedia's page on the election says Jason Carter has expressed interest. He's Jimmy Carter's grandson and was our candidate in 2014. Considering the year and that Georgia was still half a decade away from becoming competitive, his eight point loss was respectable.
There might be a state senator or similar who can put up a good campaign too, but I wouldn't know anything on that front.
That margin really would be disappointing for FL-1, that would only be a 6 point improvement from November. Maybe there were some folks who were voting against Gaetz who are fine with voting for Patronis.
Yeah, but we were running against Matt Gaetz in November. You'd expect a non-Gaetz R to do significantly better. 37% wouldn't be bad at all for us here.
The narrative on the race may have peaked a little too soon for Wiel and drove up Republican turnout. Beyond that, the polls have been underestimating Republican strength in Florida uninterruptedly for more than 12 years now.
I just don’t understand after soooo many years people still don’t believe Florida Republicans will vote mostly for, well, Republicans. Like a quarter of Rs registered as Republicans so that they could vote for HRC. Where did that thought come about?!
Yeah, it looks like the polls got Weil's vote share pretty much right, and the undecideds came home in the end (which is a very common turn of events polling-wise).
Special election overperformance is going to increase as the election gets less attention. Attention and overperformance are going to be inversely proportion in most cases.
As the out party gets more excited about an election because they think they can win, they cause more attention to be driven to it, which makes them less likely to win.
State legislative seats and similar will see larger than normal swings to the out party due to their lower prominence. An election for US house is going to be more prominent by default.
Mr. Musk, for his part, on Tuesday only upped the ante on his Wisconsin investment: His super PAC wrote on Mr. Musk’s social media platform that it would pay $50 to anyone who uploaded a photo of a Wisconsin resident outside a voting precinct.
I feel this is likely to backfire. He's playing right into the Dems line that he's trying to buy the election, though I suppose we'll see in a few hours.
I know this is completely unscientific, but the New York Times found multiple Trump voters / Republicans that said they were voting for Crawford for their story about Wisconsin, but couldn't find anyone crossing party lines for their FL-6 story.
WISCONSIN UPDATE
Late last night, Toby of MGData posted updated Early Vote numbers from Wisconsin. Lots of analysis and details on his feed. Here are the top numbers heading into Election Day:
– Mail Ballot Requests: 386,429 (Deadline has passed)
– Mail Ballot Returns: 283,546 (73.86% return rate, +28,195 from Friday)
– IPAV*: 361,254 (55.60% of ballots cast, +72,730 from Friday)
2023 numbers for comparison:
– 329,400 Mail Ballot Requests (Gap +57,029)
– 235,538 Mail Ballot Returns (Gap +48,208, +2,912 from Friday)
– 71.44% Mail Return Rate (Gap +2.42%, -0.42% from Friday)
– 174,417 IPAV (Gap +186,837, +41,076 from Friday)
https://nitter.poast.org/TobyMGData
*) IPAV = In-Person Absentee Vote
(Nitter is a way to access Tweets without having to visit Musk’s Xitter.)
Link via Xitter: https://x.com/TobyMGData
"There’s no party registration data in Wisconsin, but our estimates nonetheless indicate that early voters are more Democratic-leaning than they were last November, and would have backed Ms. Harris by more than 20 points."
– New York Times, quoted by Toby of MGData
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/upshot/special-elections-democrats-voting.html
FWIW, my mom is a Wisco voter, and she votes on election day now because she worries about GOP shenanigans with vote-by-mail/early voting. Wonder if other dem voters are moving in that direction.
Condolences on your name, if it’s real.
It is—my dad too, haha. As you can imagine, I have a lot of interest in the Democrats taking the House!
You will always be the REAL Mike Johnson.
If you haven’t already done so, you could set up some good social media accounts. May I suggest:
– MoralMikeJohnson
– HonestMikeJohnson
– MikeJohnsonWithaSpine
To be fair, that's a really common name.
That's a huge shift in the IPAV numbers from 2023 to today. Lots of cannibalization of E-day voters.
I'm relatively optimistic seeing all of these numbers, though we of course do not know the final results yet.
Before Election Day, Wisconsin has had a total of 644,800 Early Votes. That is 57.3 % (!!!) more than the 409,955 Early Votes that were cast in Wisconsin’s 2023 Supreme Court Special Election.
... which now WISC Justice Protasiewicz won by 10 points! I don't think Crawford is likely to hit that margin like Janet and Jill Karofsky did, but fingers crossed she wins by a big margin nonetheless.
TX 18:
Representative Hakeem Jeffries of New York, the Democratic House leader, on Monday accused Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas of deliberately delaying a special election in a solidly Democratic district in Houston in order to cushion the House Republicans’ slim majority.
A spokesman for Mr. Abbott declined to address the Democrats’ criticisms and to say whether the governor had spoken with House Republicans about the Houston seat.
“An announcement on a special election will be made at a later date,” the spokesman, Andrew Mahaleris, said in a statement.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/us/texas-house-seat.html
Looks as though the seat will remain vacant at least until November. Unless there is judicial intervention.
Support MAGA – Mothers Against Greg Abbott!
https://mothersagainstgregabbott.com/
There's definitely a little bit of "what's good for the goose is good for the gander" here, given that Jeffries was one of the people encouraging the New York legislature to rewrite the law there to allow Hochul to keep NY-21 open as long as possible. Swift special elections should be the standard everywhere and the Governor should have very limited discretion to futz with the date.
This just shows how incompetent the Democratic “leadership” is.
The sorta things are like “ you don’t advertise it, you just do it”. They advertised before there was even a vacancy. Well at least they pretend to be working.
Everyone would have slagged these as not fighting if they had done as you suggest.
They have a history of not fighting. Their actions show they don't care about being called out for not fighting. Worry about being criticized as not fighting is not an excuse for making tactically poor political choices.
Further, if they are worried about that, what's better for avoiding being "slagged" in the future?
(A) Saying or implying they will use a specific avenue to fight republicans, but either they do not do it or it is ultimately immaterial.
Or, (B) Fighting republicans when they actually have some level of power to do so?
Yeah, "Democrats need to fight, but not like that!" is the oldest story around.
Attacking a strawman is an even older story.
Am I the only person who thinks special elections in general are a waste of time and resources?
I'd be fine with a constitutional amendment (or some other election-related legislation), stating that when House/Senate seats are vacated they are filled at the next general election (so, for example the two Florida seats would be filled in November 2025, as that is the closest general election).
sadly,this is American politics business as usual...the ONLY thing that matters is party power not serving the people.
They were trying to tie the fates of both the seats which failed after Trump withdrew.
Upping what David put yesterday now that it’s April 1:
“ A reminder: April Fool's jokes are prohibited on this site. This is a long-standing policy. Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. Thank you.”
I’ve seen bad April Fool’s jokes like you wouldn’t believe that people treated as real. Mark Warner retiring in 2019. Joe Manchin joining the GOP in 2021. Donna Shalala running against Marco Rubio in 2021. They were all unpleasant to deal with.
ok that last one made me chuckle
Going to be a fun day for me tuning in back and forth from the Dodgers game to the Election results tonight.
May you see only good victories as you do so – and at the very least an "over-performance" by the Dodgers!
How can the Dodgers overperform? They are unbeaten so far this season!
Simple. Their pitcher can pitch a no-hitter.
true...but the Dodgers pitch by committee; Dustin May will go 5 innings max. So 3 or 4 relievers also need to pitch no hitter...would be nice but unlikely. How about this for a money machine: Chilly Monday night and Dodgers put over 50k fans in Dodger Stadium.
"No hitter by committee" is easily the most depressing development in baseball in my lifetime. As a fan who was always most invested in the role of the starting pitcher, baseball will never be the same for me.
Agree...hell, you rarely even see a complete game from the starting pitcher
Thanks! Dodgers won tonight and are already 7-0! Going to tomorrow's game.
Congressman Ron Wright (R-TX) died of Covid on February 7, 2021. Governor Greg Abbott immediately called a special election to fill Wright's empty seat for May 1, 2021. The governor's celerity may be explained by the fact that Texas 6th Congressional District is heavily Republican. The two top vote-getters in the special election were Republican Susan Wright and Republican Jake Ellzey. The victor in the run-off was Ellzey.
FL-13:
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna has left the House ‘Freedom’ Caucus over its unwillingness to allow her vote-by-proxy legislation for new parents.
Once again, the House ‘Freedom’ Caucus is not about freedom. Apparently Luna had to learn the hard way.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/03/31/gop-lawmaker-leaves-house-freedom-caucus/82747413007/
The drama this whole issue unleashed among Republicans is just bizarre . .why do they make this (no proxy voting for new parents) a hill to die on?
It's representative of why the GOP doesn't have it's shit together on just about everything, even an issue so low bar as this. If John Boehner was House Speaker, Rep. Anna Paulina Luna would have likely seen her legislation be voted on and signed into law.
Unless GOP leadership including Mike Johnson Luna believes Luna's making the narrative harder for the GOP in light of Trump pushing federal office workers to go back to work onsite. Johnson & others have said the legislation is "unconstitutional" but they are really contracting themselves considering that there's nothing in the constitution that forbids any members of Congress (House and Senate) to vote remotely while raising children.
Luna didn't do this alone. She worked with two Democratic Reps Brittany Pettersen and Sara Jacobs along with moderate Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.
How the heck could it be unconstitutional? It very explicitly says that each house can set its own rules. (Article I, Section 5)
Plenty of the GOP, not just Mike Johnson, have been pulling the “not constitutional” or “it’s not in the constitution crap for over a decade. Even Ron Paul, the so-called godfather of the Tea Party, pulled this crap before when he was in the House. It’s as if the GOP looks at the constitution like they think it’s a Bible.
They really have no idea what they’re talking about. Besides what you’ve mentioned, just because something isn’t mentioned in writing in the Constitution doesn’t mean it should be dismissed. I mean, what is the point of Congress then if we have to legislate exactly what the Constitution dictates?
It’s not a good way to run government.
Same old story. Cruelty is only fun when it's directed at the other guy.
Right although being that women are increasing in population and in positions of power and influence in both business and politics, it's not good optics to be dismissive to women who are giving birth to children and working at the same time.
FLORIDA 6th special turnout update
Total ballots cast: 140,568 at 12:00 PM EDT
🔴 GOP registered 70,858 ballots (50.4%)
🔵 DEM registered 47,638 ballots (33.9%)
⚪️ NPA/Other registered 22,072 ballots (15.7%)
2024 general ballots cast breakdown:
🔴 52% 🔵 26% ⚪️ 22%
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1907102468628160772
That doesn’t sound promising
Even if the Dem candidates in FL don't win tonight... if they lose by single digit percentages, it is a VERY good sign for Dems next year.
Do we think we’ll lose by single digits if only 34% of the voters are Democrats? Not sure how blue the npa voters are there.
And what's also interesting is how many how many Rs are ticked off at the Muskrat and FDJT enough to vote for the D candidates out of spite.
Per what Paleo is citing in the data, Independent voter turnout is dropping a bit.
However, with Independents we don't always know if they will stay Independent or if they end up eventually moving to either the Democratic or Republican Party. It depends on how their ideology has evolved.
It appears that FL Independents are more middle road, moderate voters who aren't necessarily inclined to being loyalists to either political party. That said, cost of living, inflation and the abortion issue seem to be factors for independents.
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/news/2022/03/21/democrats-need-independent-voters-win-statewide-florida-2022-desantis/6820769001/
https://floridadaily.com/florida-independents-could-be-decision-maker-in-2024-election/
And unsurprising. Trump won by 30, Waltz by 33.
Realistically this special election shouldn't be promising.
Reminds me a lot of GA-06 special election in 2017. It was an unlikely pickup from the start, but dems got excited about it because there was a non-zero chance we would win.
Even losing this district by 15 points tonight would be an enormous overperformance. We need to keep everything in perspective when we assess whatever the results might be. In the end Wisconsin has long been the most important race happening today.
GA-06 had a much better trendline though. This race reminds me more of the OH-02 special election back in the summer of 2005.
It was never promising for an actual win
Sure, but a high single digits loss like KS-4 in Trump’s first term would have been nice.
Voters today will probably lean Republican too (although not a guarantee). I’d guess Fine will win with 55-56% which would still be a pretty big over performance for Dems.
Doing some back of the napkin addition: if that level of Dem over performance was universal across the country in 2026, some 35+ house republicans would be at risk. Anyone who won with under 60% of the vote in 2024 would be in the danger zone.
Votes today leaning Rs is definitely an understatement.
The registration of FL06 is about R+23. Today’s turnout is R+37.
Looks like Florida’s endless hordes of Republicans have arrived lol
Any estimate of the non-MAGA Republicans in FL-06?
I am really happy to learn that Loren is leading!
I know that Barbara Lee is a longtime progressive face but Loren Taylor is a very pragmatic governance and housing focused liberal of the Matt Mahan mold. I personally feel that Progressives make great Senators but not great governors and Mayors.
Oakland's problems have nothing to do with being ideologically liberal or moderate. They have to do with institutional problems with city government and how it's been able to manage things in keeping the city together.
Originally Jean Quan was elected as Mayor back in 2010 as a progressive but she became arrogant in her handling of the Occupy Oakland protests and was not exactly uniting the city. Then Libby Schaaf, more moderate than Quan, got elected for two terms but ended up on her watch not only losing the A's, Raiders and Warriors but also not even being proactive on addressing the pressing homeless and encampment situation. Sheng Thao ran as a progressive but was really corrupt the whole time as the FBI investigation has revealed.
Loren Taylor would be fine as Mayor but he's got a lot to clean up in the city. He needs to be community oriented to bring the city together or it's going to be much tougher for him to unite the city.
So who do we think is the best candidate for Georgia governor? Lucy McBath isn't running and i seriously doubt round 3 for Stacey Abrams will excite voters
Wikipedia's page on the election says Jason Carter has expressed interest. He's Jimmy Carter's grandson and was our candidate in 2014. Considering the year and that Georgia was still half a decade away from becoming competitive, his eight point loss was respectable.
There might be a state senator or similar who can put up a good campaign too, but I wouldn't know anything on that front.
I wouldn't hold the 2014 loss against Jason Carter anymore considering how GA as a state has moved away from the GOP since then.
Then again, the field is all open at this point. I am really not sure who is the most credible candidate but Lucy McBath certainly pops out the most.
I wouldn't jump to conclusions about McBath. She didn't say she absolutely won't run.
FLORIDA 6th special turnout update
Total ballots cast: 173,378 at 4:15 PM EDT
– 🔴 GOP registered 90,233 ballots (52.0%)
– 🔵 DEM registered 55,384 ballots (32.0%)
– ⚪️ NPA/Other registered 27,761 ballots (16.0%)
2024 general ballots cast breakdown:
– 🔴 52% 🔵 26% ⚪️ 22%
https://nitter.poast.org/umichvoter/status/1907165112630480966#m
We'll outperform, but probably lose by somewhere around 15. Could be 20 on a bad day.
The NPAs voting now is probably a tinge bluer than ones voted in November, though.
With 2.5 more hours to go, the Election Day votes are holding steady at R+37. So the final ballot composition will be slightly redder than this.
My final guess, FL06 losing by 60-40; FL01 by 63-37. About 10pt better than Nov.
That margin really would be disappointing for FL-1, that would only be a 6 point improvement from November. Maybe there were some folks who were voting against Gaetz who are fine with voting for Patronis.
Losing 26pt is 11pt better than losing over 37pt on the Presidential line. On the US Senate line DMP lost by 41pt there.
I’m comparing the congressional races, we got 34% of the vote in the House race in FL-1 in November, 37% is barely an improvement on that at all.
Isn’t there some reason Gaetz is hated? :)
Yeah, but we were running against Matt Gaetz in November. You'd expect a non-Gaetz R to do significantly better. 37% wouldn't be bad at all for us here.
No one was expecting anything from FL 1. One of the most Republican in the country.
Fl 6 will probably come in around 58-42. About half the 2024 margin.
Yeah the single digit shock margin ain't happening folks.
I guess that means George Soros failed to come through with his two million-dollar checks – or his $100 per youth vote in FL-06?
The narrative on the race may have peaked a little too soon for Wiel and drove up Republican turnout. Beyond that, the polls have been underestimating Republican strength in Florida uninterruptedly for more than 12 years now.
I just don’t understand after soooo many years people still don’t believe Florida Republicans will vote mostly for, well, Republicans. Like a quarter of Rs registered as Republicans so that they could vote for HRC. Where did that thought come about?!
He was only at 44% in the two polls that came out.
It was really a Republican narrative driven by GOP polls and leaks from their side. Pretty crafty, I'll give them that.
In this case the polls may have been accurate at the time, but it definitely seems that Dems started paying attention a lot earlier than Rs did.
Yeah, it looks like the polls got Weil's vote share pretty much right, and the undecideds came home in the end (which is a very common turn of events polling-wise).
Makes sense.
Special election overperformance is going to increase as the election gets less attention. Attention and overperformance are going to be inversely proportion in most cases.
As the out party gets more excited about an election because they think they can win, they cause more attention to be driven to it, which makes them less likely to win.
State legislative seats and similar will see larger than normal swings to the out party due to their lower prominence. An election for US house is going to be more prominent by default.
NOT an April Fool’s joke:
Ok, folks, the verdict from the Maine Coon cat and the Labrador is in:
"Musk and Trump really stink – and they both fail the Lab Report and Cat Scan."
Mr. Musk, for his part, on Tuesday only upped the ante on his Wisconsin investment: His super PAC wrote on Mr. Musk’s social media platform that it would pay $50 to anyone who uploaded a photo of a Wisconsin resident outside a voting precinct.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/01/us/elections/wisconsin-supreme-court-election-turnout.html
I feel this is likely to backfire. He's playing right into the Dems line that he's trying to buy the election, though I suppose we'll see in a few hours.
If a Super PAC were credible, it wouldn't need to go on X to state something like this.
Musk sure gets distracted a lot with his agenda.
he has a bad case of adhd, bipolar disorder, borderline personality disorder and is on the spectrum...but he can run the gov't for the fat felon
Right but Musk also has a bigger problem - EVs in China are costing cheaper and are giving Tesla a run for its money.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SKaBwmHq9Y
I know this is completely unscientific, but the New York Times found multiple Trump voters / Republicans that said they were voting for Crawford for their story about Wisconsin, but couldn't find anyone crossing party lines for their FL-6 story.
I notice this too...
FL 6:
Right now Fine up 54-46 with about 72% of the vote in. Most of the outstanding vote from Volusia
That's good news, although the E-day vote (even in Volusia) will likely be redder than the early vote.
Can we use this thread for live updates on FL & WI? I really don't have the time or energy to watch a livestream...
Fine declared the winner. But a 33 point margin in November is sitting at 9 at the moment.
I think we have an outside shot at keeping this under 10...
I say 56-44. The number Wiel was polling at.
I'll take it! I was hoping for a margin of <15.
An approximate 20 point swing is nothing to sneeze at.
outside chance at a 24-25 pt swing!!
My "par" setting coming into the night was 43-57, and I am always heartened to break par with Florida Man.