The poll out on the LA County prosecutor, Gascon is in line with what I posted about a couple days ago. I suspect Gascon is toast, and that prop 36 overturning crime reform in prop 47 will likely pass statewide.
The Republican propaganda machine has effectively split California Democrats on the crime issue. My hope is this issue doesn't carry into the federal congressional swing districts that we desperately need to reclaim the house.
While I don't think the current California proposition is warranted, I am currently repairing the AZ house that was burglarized and vandalized and is still unsecure. Therefore I have my dog who bit a guy that pushed his way into the Phoenix house about a year ago, and have a loaded 20 gauge shotgun by my bedside. In some areas, crime is a problem.
With the non stop crime stories on the nightly news in the LA, and I suspect SF, market it is not at all surprising that Gascon is toast and Prop 36 is going to pass. People, of all political bents, are fed up and if officials don't do something significant they will be out of a job.
We will be in polical trouble if we let Fox News and sensationalizing mainstream news stations set the narrative without fighting back on crime, immigrants committing crimes, and the economy.
No, crime wasn't lower under Trump, no immigrants don't commit crimes at a higher level than natives, and we were in the worst recession since the 1930s under Trump.
It's bad enough regular news picks up Fox BS, but we should be setting it straight, not letting it stand or repeating it.
It is far from just Fox news, unfortunately. Every tv station in the LA market has 2-5 hours of "news" per day and they lead every hour with endless crime stories...and it is worse today than it was last year. And every time LA mayor Karen Bass is on the screen she has that great big smile working and people are not seeing results so they are losing patience.
LA County and LA the city in general are the largest populated regions in CA. There's also a major problem with housing affordability that impacts LA County at large in a bigger way than cities like San Francisco and San Jose. This adds stress to the crime situation with the way it is.
As for LA Mayor Karen Bass, she's got a tough job reversing problems that have been years in the making. She's also in just her 2nd year as Mayor. Unlike Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, I'd say Bass has become more proactive. Time is something residents are very impatient with.
On the other hand, she is a veteran politician who comes in with experience working in Congress, the State Assembly and in difficult situations (her budget compromise as Assembly Speaker with then-State Senate Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the height of the Great Recession is an example). Time will tell how successful she ends up being.
Even voters liberal jurisdictions are tired of crime. Criminal Justice Reform has noble goals; but, if voters feel like crime isn’t being addressed, even in liberal areas, they’ll vote out such prosecutors.
Criminal justice reform isn't the issue and isn't by default perfect. The signing of the criminal justice reform law by Trump when he was POTUS isn't the end-all-be-all for reform.
The premise of criminal justice reform is supposed to be providing fairer sentences to those being convicted of a crime. If we argue for harsher-than-needed sentences for the accused, then we're going to run into problems with recidivism, overpopulation in prisons (they are already packed as it is) and the convicted will have a harder time trying to adapt into society. This is an ongoing legal problem that needs to be addressed but it won't happen overnight.
What is a problem is when you have DAs like Alameda County DA Pamela Price handing out light sentences when they are not warranted and using their office as a way to exercise activism on criminal justice reform when they are supposed to be objective and prosecute the crimes. Price for instance has show a bias towards giving black defendents lesser sentences because of their race. Her office has also been toxic for attorneys who have left because of the management by Price and her staff.
Also, the problem with crime is primarily a police and security problem. Criminal justice reform does not apply in this case as we're talking about police officers arresting people without hestitation and the response times of them getting to those breaking into businesses like restaurants, stealing catalytic converters and breaking into homes.
"Price for instance has show a bias towards giving black defendents lesser sentences because of their race."
Has she stated that she's doing that intentionally and given a rationale for it? If not, what statistical evidence is there for this? The default is to give Black people harsher sentences for the same crimes.
Yes, the front door got kicked in, the electricity was shut off, everything in the freezer dumped out, "fucking white trash scum" spray painted t/o the house.
The new door and a steel door will be installed this afternoon, then I will unload. But I still have the attack poodle.
I'm more worried legitimate needed corrections for stopping public nuisances, theft & violent crime will be cover for reopening drug war 2.0 and the arrest and jail everyone damn the root causes approach that inevitably leads to more recidivism and incarceration and makes it impossible for people to reenter the workforce.
Yeah. There has to be some middle ground. I'm not in California and not voting on this proposition, so I don't have to make a decision about it, but here in New York, I hate that paying for subway and bus fare now is effectively optional, with crowds of fare-beaters openly sneaking in without consequences, and that traffic regulations don't seem to be enforced anymore, with people riding motorcycles on the sidewalk, etc., etc. It can't be that the only alternatives are for cops to beat the shit out of people and put them in brutal prisons for years unnecessarily or for important laws and regulations to be routinely flouted without consequences.
Exactly. That's the way it used to be. The police would give them a summons to appear in court. If they were no-shows, the consequences would get more serious.
I think they should go back to giving them summonses and making offenders pay a heavy enough fine to discourage it, unless they decide to make subway and bus fare free, but that's not possible with the levels of funding for the system. But the main problem is that there aren't enough cops patrolling the turnstiles or buses. And the MTA is losing tremendous amounts of money as a result.
Yes, my sentiment exactly. We as Democrats (ideally many of us are liberal) should not be regressive but progressive for a reason - To ensure those being convicted of a crime should serve time as needed that's a reasonable sentence.
And also, those convicted should be able to wipe their record off as quickly as possible once they serve time if it means they have to get employment and a fair shot at reentering society. We already have a major problem with overcrowding in prisons.
A lot of Americans don't know or understand that in some European countries with way, way lower murder rates than the U.S., murderers get only a few years in prison, and prisoners aren't routinely assaulted and raped or otherwise treated like crap in some of those systems. There's a strong sentiment for retribution in the U.S., but the most important question is how best to protect society. Putting everyone who violates every kind of law and regulation in prison, not to mention jailing them for years while they are legally presumed and may be innocent, awaiting trial, is not the best way to protect society. But of course, neither is letting people get away with openly violating laws and regulations, whether their names are Donald Trump or Joe Shmoe.
Let’s talk macro level political strategy here for a second.
With the 2024 political cycle being full of exceptions, one-offs, first-evers etc, it can be easy to lose sight of what is going on strategically. The DNC is a pretty stark reminder of what the core strategy Harris is running with. The overarching theme is goading Trump, and then give him as much rope as he wants to hang himself with. It’s not a strategy I’ve ever seen in a political campaign before, and is more often seen in TV legal dramas and such. The jury is still out on if it will be successful in the end, but it’s clear that niggling Trump on insecurities he has shown to lash out on is a concerted effort. Last night was a prime example of that with Harris filling the DNC stadium, and the RNC stadium at the same time. Playing ads on FNC specifically talking to Trump by name directly is another example. Even having Pritzker saying “…take it from an ACTUAL billionare” in his DNC speech was on this theme. This is all an untested campaign strategy by Harris, as to my knowledge no one has ever run a camapign based on baiting your opponent into making mistakes out of anger.
Trump’s strategy seems to be far more traditional. “I am better than them. My ideas are better than their ideas. My policies are better than their policies”. This is a far more utilized campaign strategy. This is the strategy Obama used in 2008, and the strategy Reagan used in 1980, both to great success. It’s also the strategy Trump was using against Biden earlier this year, and there has been no discernable pivot on the Trump side after the race was turned on its head 1 month ago today.
The Democrats' strategy is pretty straightforward - make everyone remember why they hate Trump.
It's a strategy that would only work in the type of situation we have now, where a highly polarizing, widely disliked former President is running to retake the office.
I don't think I agree. That was clearly Biden's strategy. A war of attrition where he banked on Trump being less popular than Biden and win that way. Harris has shifted markedly to goading Trump, and isn't banking on his residual unpopularity.
She's doing it more effectively than Biden was, but he tried. What she's changed is the focus on joy and freedom. That's a change in tone, not in policy or intent.
I think there's a pretty big difference between "The Harris campaign is goading Trump" and "the Harris campaign is only goading Trump." There are, as you describe, many instances of them mocking or goading Trump, but there's also a lot of focus on the policy contrast with respect to abortion, etc.
Both the negative campaigning (goading/mocking/defining Trump) and the policy campaigning (abortion, middle class, infrastructure, etc.) are subservient to the larger Obama-esque theme of hope and change implicit in "let's turn the page" and "we aren't going back."
Ultimately, the anti-Trump stuff helps to define a contrast between the same old strife and bad feelings, and an fresh and optimistic view forward.
I don't think this whole performance has just been about bating Trump. It doesn't take much to get his goat. It's been about presenting an energetic, youthful, strong, happy, but pissed off, counterpoint to Trump and Republicans. We've been puffing ourselves up and taking on the enemy to show that we aren't afraid, because voters back strength. As an aside, damn is Warnock a good speaker. And normally really can't stand preacher speak.
"Trump’s strategy seems to be far more traditional. “I am better than them. My ideas are better than their ideas. My policies are better than their policies”. "
You must be listening to some Trump impersonator, not the man himself, because what i hear him campaigning on is a blizzard of bullshit, bigotry, and personal grievances as a narcissist who inherited lots of money and property and thinks he's entitled to own everything and everybody and the least they can do is shut up and take it. You actually think he's campaigned on superior ideas and policies?
He's not very good at it, but yes I do believe that's his strategy. He frequently mentions "failed policies" "bad Bidem/Harris economy" "failed nursery policy" "there was peace in the middle easy when I was president". He is a horrible mouth piece to anyone who isn't his loyalist (which we shouldn't forget are 45% of the country), but that's what he is campaigning on.
You are way too credulous. Trump has not introduced any policies, other than not taxing tips and claiming that he will not sign a national abortion ban. He also claimed that the US hostages in Russia would only be freed when he came back to office, but that one just imploded. I suppose mass deportation of all (illegal) immigrants would be a policy issue he does avow. The one major policy document he (or at least many of his advisors) had a hand in was Project 2025, but he is running away fast from that one. I ask that you enumerate some of Trump's policies before leveling the claims you are making.
Which policies are being promoted by Trump, other than not taxing tips? It seems his main strategy is that things were good under him and bad under Biden, even though in certain areas (crime), that was not the case.
It doesn't have to be logical. Nor does he have to be specific. He plays into the fears/anxieties/anger of his base. He speaks in vague terms so he can be everything to everyone.
May he rest in peace. Pascrell certainly went through pain prior to passing away.
This is just me but since NJ-09 includes Passaic County which is where the City of Passaic is located, I'd be interested to see a Democratic replacement be located there. My father grew up in Passaic in the 40's and 50's but the city has changed significantly in demographics since his time. Might be ideal to have a representative reflect how NJ-09 is these days.
Bill Pascrell was a great guy. So in 2000 i was getting married. I worked for a Democratic Member and was leaving that day for my wedding. I went to vote with my boss and as we left started talking with Bill Pascrell and told him i was leaving to get married. He told me some stories about his wedding. He wish me luck and two weeks later saw me in the Rayburn hallway and asked how things went.
RFK speaks in Phoenix at noon on Friday. Trump plans to speak at a rally near Phoenix at 4. People are cautioning that the endorsement is not a done deal but it looks pretty likely. Per Washington Post, RFK wanted a cabinet post from Harris but "Harris allies have rebuffed requests for a meeting, and dismissed Kennedy as a 'MAGA-funded fringe candidate.' "
Remarkable that a man (RFK) who has considered himself an environmental hero would support an anti-environment champion. I would compare it to his father, RFK Sr., endorsing George Wallace.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a lifelong Democrat, is ending his independent run for the Presidency and will endorse Republican nominee Donald Trump. Kennedy initially ran as a Democrat in the 2024 primaries, then left that primary to run as an independent.
This confirms what we know: Kennedy Jr. was running a diet MAGA campaign anyway, and that most of his voters were previous Trump voters for 2016 and/or 2020.
I used to be DownstateDemocrat on DailyKos. I wish The Downballot newsletter well, and, of course, I subscribed. I won't be commenting on here much because I have my own Substack newsletter, Apollo Campfire, and I have a ton of other projects that I'm working on (writing over a dozen books, hosting a podcast about books and writing, etc.).
Howdy Aaron! Thank you so much for subscribing, and good luck with your own newsletter! If you think it would be of interest to folks here, please drop a link to it in comments.
My newsletter can be found at https://apollocampfire.substack.com/! Not all of the content on my newsletter will be political in nature (in fact, the next three posts I'm going to write for my newsletter will be about the upcoming Paralympics in Paris), but some of it will be.
For some reason a bunch of the TDB “channels”? topics? seem to have disappeared from my TDB discord? Yesterday I was seeing about 15 or 20, today only the 3 (welcome) etc? Total discord noob. Anybody have a clue I can borrow?
Basically the subscriber channels weren’t showing up. They’ve reappeared. Have a couple theories. Will share if it recurs and it seems proven what’s causing it.
Apologies for the delay of night 3’s release of the DNC Speaker schedule.
The main speaker of tonight is Minnesota Governor and Kamala Harris VP pick Tim Walz.
Other notable Speakers: Bill Clinton, Oprah Winfrey, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Geoff Duncan, Andy Kim, Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg.
Grace Meng and Debbie Wasserman Schultz were initially set to speak on Monday, but got moved to tonight.
Performers: Maren Morris, John Legend, Amanda Gorman (poem), Stevie Wonder
Among those seen as prime contenders are New Jersey Assembly members Shavonda Sumter and Benjie Wimberly, both from Passaic County, as well as Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh.
Well-connected Democrats said no one has emerged as a likely candidate for Pascrell’s seat from the Bergen County towns in the 9th Congressional District.
She's seemingly going to cruise in November and would have a decent chance if she ran against Sullivan next cycle. She probably won't, though, because trading a House seat where you're the incumbent and favorite for a race where you'll be the underdog challenger (and quite possibly let the House seat flip back) is really risky.
The poll out on the LA County prosecutor, Gascon is in line with what I posted about a couple days ago. I suspect Gascon is toast, and that prop 36 overturning crime reform in prop 47 will likely pass statewide.
The Republican propaganda machine has effectively split California Democrats on the crime issue. My hope is this issue doesn't carry into the federal congressional swing districts that we desperately need to reclaim the house.
While I don't think the current California proposition is warranted, I am currently repairing the AZ house that was burglarized and vandalized and is still unsecure. Therefore I have my dog who bit a guy that pushed his way into the Phoenix house about a year ago, and have a loaded 20 gauge shotgun by my bedside. In some areas, crime is a problem.
With the non stop crime stories on the nightly news in the LA, and I suspect SF, market it is not at all surprising that Gascon is toast and Prop 36 is going to pass. People, of all political bents, are fed up and if officials don't do something significant they will be out of a job.
We will be in polical trouble if we let Fox News and sensationalizing mainstream news stations set the narrative without fighting back on crime, immigrants committing crimes, and the economy.
No, crime wasn't lower under Trump, no immigrants don't commit crimes at a higher level than natives, and we were in the worst recession since the 1930s under Trump.
It's bad enough regular news picks up Fox BS, but we should be setting it straight, not letting it stand or repeating it.
It is far from just Fox news, unfortunately. Every tv station in the LA market has 2-5 hours of "news" per day and they lead every hour with endless crime stories...and it is worse today than it was last year. And every time LA mayor Karen Bass is on the screen she has that great big smile working and people are not seeing results so they are losing patience.
People always think crime is higher than it's ever been, yet that's usually false.
"All the crime rates are above average."
LA County and LA the city in general are the largest populated regions in CA. There's also a major problem with housing affordability that impacts LA County at large in a bigger way than cities like San Francisco and San Jose. This adds stress to the crime situation with the way it is.
As for LA Mayor Karen Bass, she's got a tough job reversing problems that have been years in the making. She's also in just her 2nd year as Mayor. Unlike Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao, I'd say Bass has become more proactive. Time is something residents are very impatient with.
very impatient!
Which is why I don't envy Karen Bass.
On the other hand, she is a veteran politician who comes in with experience working in Congress, the State Assembly and in difficult situations (her budget compromise as Assembly Speaker with then-State Senate Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger at the height of the Great Recession is an example). Time will tell how successful she ends up being.
Is the crime really worse, unlike the nationwide trend, or is the media coverage worse? On the media, it's a truism: If it bleeds, it leads.
Even voters liberal jurisdictions are tired of crime. Criminal Justice Reform has noble goals; but, if voters feel like crime isn’t being addressed, even in liberal areas, they’ll vote out such prosecutors.
right, that is why Gascon is toast
Criminal justice reform isn't the issue and isn't by default perfect. The signing of the criminal justice reform law by Trump when he was POTUS isn't the end-all-be-all for reform.
The premise of criminal justice reform is supposed to be providing fairer sentences to those being convicted of a crime. If we argue for harsher-than-needed sentences for the accused, then we're going to run into problems with recidivism, overpopulation in prisons (they are already packed as it is) and the convicted will have a harder time trying to adapt into society. This is an ongoing legal problem that needs to be addressed but it won't happen overnight.
What is a problem is when you have DAs like Alameda County DA Pamela Price handing out light sentences when they are not warranted and using their office as a way to exercise activism on criminal justice reform when they are supposed to be objective and prosecute the crimes. Price for instance has show a bias towards giving black defendents lesser sentences because of their race. Her office has also been toxic for attorneys who have left because of the management by Price and her staff.
Also, the problem with crime is primarily a police and security problem. Criminal justice reform does not apply in this case as we're talking about police officers arresting people without hestitation and the response times of them getting to those breaking into businesses like restaurants, stealing catalytic converters and breaking into homes.
"Price for instance has show a bias towards giving black defendents lesser sentences because of their race."
Has she stated that she's doing that intentionally and given a rationale for it? If not, what statistical evidence is there for this? The default is to give Black people harsher sentences for the same crimes.
I would vote to recall Gascon.
I'm really sorry there's so much crime where you are that you have to take such measures. It sucks not to feel secure in your home.
yes, the mayor's/city councils in LA have been talking tough on crime for decades and doing very little to solve the problems
DM was referring to their home in Arizona (AZ) being insecure, right?
Right.
Yes, the front door got kicked in, the electricity was shut off, everything in the freezer dumped out, "fucking white trash scum" spray painted t/o the house.
The new door and a steel door will be installed this afternoon, then I will unload. But I still have the attack poodle.
That's so awful!
Quite unnerving, and I'm not easily unnerved. In years past, I've walked and ridden the subway in your fair city at 3am without much concern.
I'm more worried legitimate needed corrections for stopping public nuisances, theft & violent crime will be cover for reopening drug war 2.0 and the arrest and jail everyone damn the root causes approach that inevitably leads to more recidivism and incarceration and makes it impossible for people to reenter the workforce.
Yeah. There has to be some middle ground. I'm not in California and not voting on this proposition, so I don't have to make a decision about it, but here in New York, I hate that paying for subway and bus fare now is effectively optional, with crowds of fare-beaters openly sneaking in without consequences, and that traffic regulations don't seem to be enforced anymore, with people riding motorcycles on the sidewalk, etc., etc. It can't be that the only alternatives are for cops to beat the shit out of people and put them in brutal prisons for years unnecessarily or for important laws and regulations to be routinely flouted without consequences.
They should go back to arresting those who don’t pay their fares to ride the subway.
What's wrong with fining them? I'd rather arrest if the fair evaders refuse to pay.
Exactly. That's the way it used to be. The police would give them a summons to appear in court. If they were no-shows, the consequences would get more serious.
I think they should go back to giving them summonses and making offenders pay a heavy enough fine to discourage it, unless they decide to make subway and bus fare free, but that's not possible with the levels of funding for the system. But the main problem is that there aren't enough cops patrolling the turnstiles or buses. And the MTA is losing tremendous amounts of money as a result.
Yes, my sentiment exactly. We as Democrats (ideally many of us are liberal) should not be regressive but progressive for a reason - To ensure those being convicted of a crime should serve time as needed that's a reasonable sentence.
And also, those convicted should be able to wipe their record off as quickly as possible once they serve time if it means they have to get employment and a fair shot at reentering society. We already have a major problem with overcrowding in prisons.
A lot of Americans don't know or understand that in some European countries with way, way lower murder rates than the U.S., murderers get only a few years in prison, and prisoners aren't routinely assaulted and raped or otherwise treated like crap in some of those systems. There's a strong sentiment for retribution in the U.S., but the most important question is how best to protect society. Putting everyone who violates every kind of law and regulation in prison, not to mention jailing them for years while they are legally presumed and may be innocent, awaiting trial, is not the best way to protect society. But of course, neither is letting people get away with openly violating laws and regulations, whether their names are Donald Trump or Joe Shmoe.
YESSSSS re: Begich! Let them fight!
Best thing I saw from yesterday's elections updates
I liked even more that Peltola is running above 50 percent!
100%!
And Begich didn't even win back in 2022 with Sarah Palin in the race. How on earth is he expected to get any traction this time around?
Is YouGuv A decent pollster??.. If so, Nebraska??.. Wow..gotta believe late deciders are almost all Republican voters making late decisions
It’s a poll done for the Osborne campaign. Nit an independent poll.
Just for fundraising.. See that now..Thanks.. Does anyone know the youguv track record?
Let’s talk macro level political strategy here for a second.
With the 2024 political cycle being full of exceptions, one-offs, first-evers etc, it can be easy to lose sight of what is going on strategically. The DNC is a pretty stark reminder of what the core strategy Harris is running with. The overarching theme is goading Trump, and then give him as much rope as he wants to hang himself with. It’s not a strategy I’ve ever seen in a political campaign before, and is more often seen in TV legal dramas and such. The jury is still out on if it will be successful in the end, but it’s clear that niggling Trump on insecurities he has shown to lash out on is a concerted effort. Last night was a prime example of that with Harris filling the DNC stadium, and the RNC stadium at the same time. Playing ads on FNC specifically talking to Trump by name directly is another example. Even having Pritzker saying “…take it from an ACTUAL billionare” in his DNC speech was on this theme. This is all an untested campaign strategy by Harris, as to my knowledge no one has ever run a camapign based on baiting your opponent into making mistakes out of anger.
Trump’s strategy seems to be far more traditional. “I am better than them. My ideas are better than their ideas. My policies are better than their policies”. This is a far more utilized campaign strategy. This is the strategy Obama used in 2008, and the strategy Reagan used in 1980, both to great success. It’s also the strategy Trump was using against Biden earlier this year, and there has been no discernable pivot on the Trump side after the race was turned on its head 1 month ago today.
The Democrats' strategy is pretty straightforward - make everyone remember why they hate Trump.
It's a strategy that would only work in the type of situation we have now, where a highly polarizing, widely disliked former President is running to retake the office.
I don't think I agree. That was clearly Biden's strategy. A war of attrition where he banked on Trump being less popular than Biden and win that way. Harris has shifted markedly to goading Trump, and isn't banking on his residual unpopularity.
Yes, she is banking on that. She's banking on Trump's reaction to her goading reminding people of why they hate Trump. And so far, it's working.
She's doing it more effectively than Biden was, but he tried. What she's changed is the focus on joy and freedom. That's a change in tone, not in policy or intent.
I think there's a pretty big difference between "The Harris campaign is goading Trump" and "the Harris campaign is only goading Trump." There are, as you describe, many instances of them mocking or goading Trump, but there's also a lot of focus on the policy contrast with respect to abortion, etc.
I agree with this. The Trump trolling is dessert, but the campaign is serving a full-course meal.
Both the negative campaigning (goading/mocking/defining Trump) and the policy campaigning (abortion, middle class, infrastructure, etc.) are subservient to the larger Obama-esque theme of hope and change implicit in "let's turn the page" and "we aren't going back."
Ultimately, the anti-Trump stuff helps to define a contrast between the same old strife and bad feelings, and an fresh and optimistic view forward.
I don't think this whole performance has just been about bating Trump. It doesn't take much to get his goat. It's been about presenting an energetic, youthful, strong, happy, but pissed off, counterpoint to Trump and Republicans. We've been puffing ourselves up and taking on the enemy to show that we aren't afraid, because voters back strength. As an aside, damn is Warnock a good speaker. And normally really can't stand preacher speak.
So proud of my senator! He's a great speaker and a wonderful human being!
"Trump’s strategy seems to be far more traditional. “I am better than them. My ideas are better than their ideas. My policies are better than their policies”. "
You must be listening to some Trump impersonator, not the man himself, because what i hear him campaigning on is a blizzard of bullshit, bigotry, and personal grievances as a narcissist who inherited lots of money and property and thinks he's entitled to own everything and everybody and the least they can do is shut up and take it. You actually think he's campaigned on superior ideas and policies?
He's not very good at it, but yes I do believe that's his strategy. He frequently mentions "failed policies" "bad Bidem/Harris economy" "failed nursery policy" "there was peace in the middle easy when I was president". He is a horrible mouth piece to anyone who isn't his loyalist (which we shouldn't forget are 45% of the country), but that's what he is campaigning on.
That's just part of his bullshit con game. He's not selling real policies; he's selling himself as the "biggest, best [everything]."
You are way too credulous. Trump has not introduced any policies, other than not taxing tips and claiming that he will not sign a national abortion ban. He also claimed that the US hostages in Russia would only be freed when he came back to office, but that one just imploded. I suppose mass deportation of all (illegal) immigrants would be a policy issue he does avow. The one major policy document he (or at least many of his advisors) had a hand in was Project 2025, but he is running away fast from that one. I ask that you enumerate some of Trump's policies before leveling the claims you are making.
Which policies are being promoted by Trump, other than not taxing tips? It seems his main strategy is that things were good under him and bad under Biden, even though in certain areas (crime), that was not the case.
It doesn't have to be logical. Nor does he have to be specific. He plays into the fears/anxieties/anger of his base. He speaks in vague terms so he can be everything to everyone.
That's the opposite of a policy argument.
Thank you!
NJ 9: Bill Pascrell has passed away.
https://x.com/BillPascrell/status/1826284560499261692
This was published this morning, so it appears Democrats have until a week from tomorrow to name a replacement.
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-jersey-playbook/2024/08/21/pascrell-deadline-looms-large-00175205
Sorry to hear. I always had the feeling that he was a good Representative and good person.
May he rest in peace. Pascrell certainly went through pain prior to passing away.
This is just me but since NJ-09 includes Passaic County which is where the City of Passaic is located, I'd be interested to see a Democratic replacement be located there. My father grew up in Passaic in the 40's and 50's but the city has changed significantly in demographics since his time. Might be ideal to have a representative reflect how NJ-09 is these days.
Bill Pascrell was a great guy. So in 2000 i was getting married. I worked for a Democratic Member and was leaving that day for my wedding. I went to vote with my boss and as we left started talking with Bill Pascrell and told him i was leaving to get married. He told me some stories about his wedding. He wish me luck and two weeks later saw me in the Rayburn hallway and asked how things went.
ABC is reporting that RFK Jr. is going to drop out. He is making a speech tomorrow. Most likely will endorse Trump.
That's certainly going to piss off the Kennedy family.
I wonder how Thanksgiving dinner is going to be like with them and RFK Jr. I'd imagine there's going to be fighting.
I'd expect he won't be invited. Even before now he'd have been the stereotypical "crazy uncle" that everyone else complained about.
I doubt rat f*ck jr is invited to a family TG dinner
RFK speaks in Phoenix at noon on Friday. Trump plans to speak at a rally near Phoenix at 4. People are cautioning that the endorsement is not a done deal but it looks pretty likely. Per Washington Post, RFK wanted a cabinet post from Harris but "Harris allies have rebuffed requests for a meeting, and dismissed Kennedy as a 'MAGA-funded fringe candidate.' "
Remarkable that a man (RFK) who has considered himself an environmental hero would support an anti-environment champion. I would compare it to his father, RFK Sr., endorsing George Wallace.
The question is what does the 2-5% who say they are voting for him do? Stay home? Trump? Harris?
The 0.2% who would have actually voted for him vote Trump (or waste their vote) and affect essentially nothing.
I would think that he would also be unqualified.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a lifelong Democrat, is ending his independent run for the Presidency and will endorse Republican nominee Donald Trump. Kennedy initially ran as a Democrat in the 2024 primaries, then left that primary to run as an independent.
This confirms what we know: Kennedy Jr. was running a diet MAGA campaign anyway, and that most of his voters were previous Trump voters for 2016 and/or 2020.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-plans-speech-path-forward-talk-potentially-backing-trump-rcna167606
BFD!!
Potentially big: UNH just dropped a poll of Kamala LEADING in ME-02, 49-44
https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1809&context=survey_center_polls
Maybe we don't need NE-2. Maine poll Harris by 5 in ME-2
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1826337666943910303
Maybe we don't need NE-2. Maine poll Harris by 5 in ME-2
https://x.com/Politics_Polls/status/1826337666943910303
That would be a surprising outcome.
UNH is iffy and fickle though.
I used to be DownstateDemocrat on DailyKos. I wish The Downballot newsletter well, and, of course, I subscribed. I won't be commenting on here much because I have my own Substack newsletter, Apollo Campfire, and I have a ton of other projects that I'm working on (writing over a dozen books, hosting a podcast about books and writing, etc.).
Wow! Good luck on all your projects!
Welcome to The Downballot, AAC.
Howdy Aaron! Thank you so much for subscribing, and good luck with your own newsletter! If you think it would be of interest to folks here, please drop a link to it in comments.
My newsletter can be found at https://apollocampfire.substack.com/! Not all of the content on my newsletter will be political in nature (in fact, the next three posts I'm going to write for my newsletter will be about the upcoming Paralympics in Paris), but some of it will be.
For some reason a bunch of the TDB “channels”? topics? seem to have disappeared from my TDB discord? Yesterday I was seeing about 15 or 20, today only the 3 (welcome) etc? Total discord noob. Anybody have a clue I can borrow?
Basically the subscriber channels weren’t showing up. They’ve reappeared. Have a couple theories. Will share if it recurs and it seems proven what’s causing it.
Apologies for the delay of night 3’s release of the DNC Speaker schedule.
The main speaker of tonight is Minnesota Governor and Kamala Harris VP pick Tim Walz.
Other notable Speakers: Bill Clinton, Oprah Winfrey, Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Geoff Duncan, Andy Kim, Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries, Josh Shapiro, and Pete Buttigieg.
Grace Meng and Debbie Wasserman Schultz were initially set to speak on Monday, but got moved to tonight.
Performers: Maren Morris, John Legend, Amanda Gorman (poem), Stevie Wonder
https://demconvention.com/news/news/program-schedule-democratic-national-convention-night-3-a-fight-for-our-freedoms/
NJ 9: Possible Pascrell replacements.
Among those seen as prime contenders are New Jersey Assembly members Shavonda Sumter and Benjie Wimberly, both from Passaic County, as well as Paterson Mayor Andre Sayegh.
Well-connected Democrats said no one has emerged as a likely candidate for Pascrell’s seat from the Bergen County towns in the 9th Congressional District.
https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/paterson-press/2024/08/21/heres-who-might-replace-the-late-rep-bill-pascrell-jr-on-ballot/74889509007/
I heard an interview of Mayor Sayegh on WNYC. He was very impressive.
Anyone note how Mary Peltola broke 50% in the AK-AL jungle primary last night? That's a great omen I take it.
She's seemingly going to cruise in November and would have a decent chance if she ran against Sullivan next cycle. She probably won't, though, because trading a House seat where you're the incumbent and favorite for a race where you'll be the underdog challenger (and quite possibly let the House seat flip back) is really risky.