Guessing Ohio was considered too red. I think we have to fight for it still though and would put it in the five red states outside of the seven swing states we should invest long term in.
Ohio was the closest red (as opposed to purple) state this year. A normie Dem could probably beat a MAGA Republican for governor in a good cycle for Dems.
We did reference both states in the intro as "stretch" possibilities! We felt 16 states was already _lot_, so we had to draw the line somewhere. But like I say, I am certain we will cover all these and more!
MN-Gov - We haven’t heard too much chatter about a third Walz run and with our huge bench, it’s not necessary nor wanted. It’s been awhile since we’ve had someone go for three terms, let’s not rock the boat. And after the VP loss, it’s a good time to pass the torch.
While I mention our huge bench, it’s Lt Gov Peggy Flanagan’s for the taking for the DFL. Perfect profile of having started working with education non-profits and becoming a Mpls school board member. She served one term and then ran for the state house. The race was a big battle for a North Mpls seat where it was an old white guy incumbent against the young Native woman in a close to equal plurality black/white seat. She ended up having to drop out of the primary due to her mom’s health issues, which bummed out progressives.
She kept up the good fight and eventually won a state house seat in St Louis Park, an upper income first ring suburb. This led to getting picked for Lt Gov by Walz. He already knew he’d be up against someone from the cities for the DFL nod who will attack his record as not liberal enough. So, he picked one of the most beloved progressives who is also now a suburban mom. It was the perfect move for a Greater MN politician facing an endorsement/primary process dominated by the Twin Cities metro.
We’ve never had a female governor and DFLers are getting irritated. Women won the last two competitive DFL endorsements but then lost to Govs Dayton and Walz in the primary. This felt like a silent understanding that we’ll get the safer choice in Walz now and then we’ll get Flanagan after that. And, unlike previous Lt Govs, Flanagan is included in tv ads, is constantly in the news and uses her office for advocacy.
Still, there are plenty of politicians wanting to move up and the spots are limited and already filled up. SoS Steve Simon is young enough to go for a third term. I have a feeling Ellison sits in that seat until a bad midterm year knocks him out or old age.
On a separate note, far better that Jared Golden remain in the House than run for statewide office. While a good fit for ME-02 and probably the best we can do here, I seriously doubt that Golden has the gravitas and intellectual chops to be a good governor. Janet Mills has been excellent!
Roy Cooper withdrew from VP consideration for one simple reason: the minute Cooper left the state, Mark Robinson would have become acting governor. Do I need to add details about such a calamity?
Can she run in NC if she's appointed to replace Rubio in FL? There sure seems to be a groundswell to get her into the Senate. I presume she has a very impressive resume! [sorry, don't know which is the sarcasm emoji]
I think the 2014 predictions were a lot more dire for us than the 2020 census revealed. It's hard to be accurate this far out, especially with the early trendlines of this decade being extenuating circumstances.
I do expect the 2030 census to be bad for us. The question is how bad. Housing policy is something blue states need to work on. People leave for cheaper housing.
I think it's beyond housing. Fairly or infairly, CA/NY and other big blue states/cities are painted as crime-infested, ultra-liberal, and overrun by homelessness. We need new governors who tack to the center on crime while remaining true to progressive social values (kinda like Polis before he went loopy last week) to stop the bleeding.
Yes, Kathy Hochul and Eric Adams are ultra liberals. And people need to leave New York for Florida and Texas, where the murder rate is significantly higher.
Who knows if they "need" to -- but they are. TX and FL population is booming as CA and NY is stagnating. Perception is all that matters. I feel like we just had an election where the Dem argument was "you're wrong, voters -- inflation is down, immigration is under control, and crime isn't as bad as you think" and lost resoundingly?
And since you brought up NY -- I'd bet money that if it's Mike Lawler vs. Kathy Hochul in 2026, Lawler wins. Hope she bows out or gets primaried.
It has very little to do with crime or perceived crime. Cost of living and housing is definitely the top, both of which are harder to solve than a lot of people seem to think.
It isn't just simply just cost of living and housing but also the supply and demand side of things, especially considering the technology industry has made an impact not only on housing costs but also the overall debate on adverse impacts on neighborhoods and social issues.
There are plenty of CA residents fleeing the state for lower cost of living but that isn't bringing the costs down quickly enough.
If only the exodus from California could be optimized for political gain! A few hundred thousand non-MAGA Californians moving to low-population Red states such as Wyoming, Montana, and North and South Dakota, would go a long ways toward helping Democrats win the Senate, and more!
I welcome more CA residents leaving the state, except those who are not wealthy or are artists, filmmakers, musicians, non-profits leaders, etc.
GA and TX are the states that are certainly benefitting the most from transplants although Montana out of all the states you mentioned would likely be more appealing to transplants. WY is so dark red that it would take a complete makeover of the state from the wilderness landscape in order to be friendly to Democrats.
SF and Oakland both kicked out their DAs and mayors. LA as well. Prop 36 passed with the highest margin out of all of the statewide initiatives. Foolish to say crime (or perception of crime) isn't a driving factor here.
Yes, we are talking about why people are leaving blue cities and states, and how perception of crime is a part of that (evidenced by the election results cited).
There seems to be an impulse to exclusively blame lack of housing for the population loss, and while that is certainly a major factor, I do not believe it is the only one.
Breed was kicked out of office because of multiple reasons, not all because she was the same Mayor as Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.
Breed had an ego problem ended up being more divisive for San Franciscans early on with her lackluster handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides the crime problem, Breed was getting way too caught with the YIMBY agenda without seeing things in the rear view mirror enough. She was also tied to corrupt local city government officials (even dated the former public works director who got arrested by the FBI), made not only sexiest but racist remarks towards one of the supervisors and her fellow opponents in the mayoral race. Breed also pissed off the film community early on by banning concession food from being sold during the pandemic. She kept trying to act like she was being hip to San Franciscans but didn’t assert enough bold leadership early on in her tenure. The list goes on.
Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao’s home got raided by the FBI. Nuff said.
CA and NY aren't the only blue states seeing slower than national growth. CA and NY are also far more than SF/LA and NYC. New England's population has seen lackluster growth for generations. The northeast has been losing electoral votes for even longer. These trends far predate those perceptions you mention.
Plus, what you say could prevent people from moving to somewhere, but it's not going to make them move away from that place unless that perception is reinforced by the reality they experience.
The problem is and has been that blue areas are more costly to live in. As that gap gets wider, the problem gets bigger.
This is a constant that applies anywhere, not just blue states. Look at Austin, initially housing was affordable and cheap. Now as demand as spiked and more people move in, housing prices have ballooned. Likewise look at Montana, the massive influx of newcomers have effectively priced out native Montanans homeowners and prospective homebuyers making real estate prices soar. Unfortunately this is a natural consequence of economics. Supply and demand. If more people over time find a place desirable to live and seek it out, demand and thus prices will continue to rise.
Absolutely, but it matters how hard we push to increase supply. Many major cities and their suburbs, especially in blue states, have very high demand to live there. Local leadership should be increasing the housing supply as much as they can. Efforts have been disappointing almost everywhere; more often than not, efforts have been non-existent or even actively working against increasing housing supply.
I said it years and years ago, and if anything I believe it more strongly than I did back then. Housing costs is a major political liability for us, both directly in the ballot box but also indirectly in how it shapes where people live. No one likes paying $2k+/month on rent, and they will blame that on the people in charge, fairly or not — and many of them will instead move to a cheaper red state and be influenced by its politics.
This should be something we really care about, too, on policy grounds. The more densely populated someone's home region is, the easier it is to get them on board with more government services. The more densely people live, the more cost effective those services become. The more densely people live, the more progressive they will become, as they are exposed to people of all walks of life and needs. The more densely people live, the less their impact on the environment.
Democrats have huge electoral and policy incentives to increase housing supply in the places where we hold power. We need to actually do it.
Among other things, Florida will throw a wrench into future calculus and predictions. Climate change is not only wreaking havoc during hurricane season and encroaching on the land, it's fast making Florida's property tax and housing insurance skyrocket. In many cases, it's reached the point where providing insurance has become unprofitable and thus unpalatable, so many insurance companies are increasingly leaving Florida. Florida may continue to siphon in retirees, but it's likely at it's peak population growth now. Georgia and North Carolina will be future priorities for Democrats, and perhaps also winning back Iowa and Ohio.
I think we should be working on Nebraska and Kansas too. Start with anti gerrymandering and building benches. Kansas overreach on school board has already shown that moderate pols can win.
History shows seat projecting this far out is a fool's errand. I'd bet Florida's growth peters out the latter half of the decade as insurance costs cripple the state.
It's probably helpful to put some ot the article into context. First, the reapportionment estimates were done by a Republican outfit. So they are certain to talk up gains in Red states. Second, growth/migration patterns showed a big shift to red states during covid, but since then much less so. (Fewer dark red or blue states on the more recent map.) Third, this is really based in 3 years data. 2024-2030 is a long time.
Here are some not-too-unlikely things that might occur in the next 7 years that could shift migration patterns... (By far an exhaustive list)
People who have moved to Florida find it "too damn hot/crowded." I'm suprised that with 2 of the fastest growing metro areas in the country in Charleston and Myrtle Beach that SC isn't predicted to pick up a seat. Lots of those folks are "halfbacks" who left "Up North" for Florida and are now moving Florida for SC because they can't take Florida for some reason. Others are moving to coastal NC too. Doesn't shift the balance of electoral votes from blue to red states exactly, but reduces Florida weight in EC.
Related, heat waves, multiple years of hurricanes and the insurance chaos they create, droughts and drought related utility rate increases raise Southern states' cost of living. Northern states, with milder winters and better access to water thanks to glacial landscapes become more attractive. This stems migration to the South or shifts it from Deep South to border states. We are already seeing property insurance rates double (not exaggerating) in SC.
GOP overreach in policy both depress internal immigration and increases emigration from red states. Considering that this overlaps pretty closely spatially with climate events you could have additive effects.
One thing Florida has going for it is that DeSantis is actually relatively good at dealing with natural disasters and planning for sea level rise. Texas, on the other hand, is not, whether hurricanes or cold weather power outages that cause Senators to flee for Mexico.
That said, the article is shot over the bow of Dems that live in growing states. Do like Michigan did last decade and get you ballot initiatives set to counteract gerrymandering and elect judges that will uphold the people's will.
Should have also said thanks to Gina for posting the link. Thinking about the long term for swing states is a good part of the ancestry of this site, imo.
Hot, humid and crowded – that’s my idea of purgatory. Moreover, with inland houses soon to become oceanfront properties, as well as a climate-change-denying governor who has an overabundance of right-wing lunatic supporters, Florida is definitely not on my bucket list of places to visit, let alone a place I ever wish to inhabit.
Not many are left. In some of the counties it is down to ballots that are curable, and the window to do that is closing fast if not already done. There are also some conditional ballots (from E-day voter registration). I would guess that there are fewer than 1000 votes remaining. I am calling it for Gray.
Just using the SoS website, I'm estimating that there are as many as 2200 ballot which could still be cured, but after 27 days and one day left, I doubt very many will be. Otherwise, using the counties' estimated number of ballots left to count, it looks like abut 200-230 in the district. This race should be called.
CA-Gov: In California, Rick Caruso (Ind?) vs. Katie Porter (D) could be a Dem loss if those two make into the runoff. He codes as a Bloomberg-y moderate and she'll be viewed as a liberal continuation of failed progressive policies (certainly unfair to her). Would keep an eye on this one.
We already have a crowded race to begin with considering the following Democrats are running:
Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis
CA State Superintentent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond
Former CA State Controller Betty Yee
State Senate Pro Tem Tony Atkins
Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
If Katie Porter enters the race, she'd be the 7th Democrat running, which might heat up the race depending on where things are the others with fundraising and traction. No doubt she'd be credible.
Rick Caruso's appeal statewide is questionable if he runs as an Independent. Even while he spent $80 million of his own money in the 2022 LA Mayoral Race, he lost to Karen Bass by nearly 10% points. SF Mayor-Elect Daniel Lurie did self-fund his mayoral campaign (he is the heir to the Levi Strauss fortune) and beat incumbent Mayor London Breed by double digits but the difference with his campaign was that he was more focused, had a stronger ground game and as a native San Franciscan listened to a lot of the anger residents had with the city's direction. Caruso is not that politically savvy whereas Lurie is.
I doubt Caruso is even going to advance beyond the top-two primary, especially considering the crowded field. The Democratic Party machine statewide is just a much different beast for Caruso and there's no telling he'll even be able to fight the media market that Democrats have. He's also got another problem: Another wealthy businessman like him, Stephen Cloobeck, is running as a Democrat. Both of them are pretty much in the same caliber.
I'd venture to say the 2026 gubernatorial race will likely be a Kounalakis vs. Porter race in the end if Porter jumps in. If this is the case, it'll be one hell of a race and a historic one considering CA has never elected a woman as Governor.
If Caruso is the only serious non-Dem running (a big "if") then he could absolutely make the top 2. A lot of the issues you cite with his flawed LA run would not necessarily be replicated statewide. I agree if he runs as a Dem then he has no lane.
But if the ~35-40% of the electorate who is GOP coalesces around him, it's certainly possible. So far the crowded field is just among Dems -- none of the people you cited are getting Republican votes in thje primary.
There most likely will be some GOP candidates. The two I've heard mentioned are Brian Dahle, who ran in 2022, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is the Trumpier one, I believe.
Is anyone else having trouble with the reply button being impossible to press on longer comments? I tried multiple browsers, disabling all extensions. The comment below ends up overlapping the cancel/reply buttons and makes them inaccessible.
A workaround I found was to make a shorter comment and then edit in the rest of what I wanted to say immediately afterwards; the edit menu still enables longer comments. Post button for this top-level comment works fine too. So it is only replies that are problematic.
Not having that problem, but the only posts that show up on the app are the daily updates. The weekend open threads and things like the "overtime" results tracker don't show up unless I go to TDB on the web first, then when I click those links it shifts to the app.
Yes! I’ve been wondering whether to mention this, thinking I might be the only one having this problem. Notably, this is also happening on another Substack to which I subscribe, so it’s not a Downballot problem per se.
Interestingly, I found the exact workaround that you did!
(My MacBook system and browser: Mac OS X 14.6.1. Firefox 132.0.2.)
I was in the middle of typing out an email to you and taking screenshots of the bug in action... and now I cannot recreate it. Hopefully it was fixed on Substack's end? If it reappears I will send you info as best I can.
Thanks for working quickly to address this for us!
Former CA Governor Jerry Brown was interviewed over a week ago and gave his thoughts on where the Democratic Party is. He's pretty blunt.
He has argued the following:
-Biden should have gotten out a long time ago in running for re-election.
-Democrats should focus on an economic agenda that addresses those who are being left out in the economy whereas the wealthy are benefitting the most.
-On a funny side note, Brown says running for political office is like crack in that politicans continue to get addicted to it.
I'll never forget when Brown as Governor fought the UC Regents over tuition increases. Not to mention having balanced the CA state budget for the first time in ages.
signature cures from Adam Gray's Merced County home turf are in, adding 358 votes that break 62%/38% in Republican John Duarte's favor, netting him 86 votes.
Looks like only Stanislaus and Fresno are left to cure.
3) Florida lawmaker sparks outrage for celebrating Turkish-American activist's killing in West Bank Representative Randy Fine, who has a history of anti-Muslim rhetoric, faces calls for censure over post celebrating Israel’s killing of Aysenur Ezgi Eygi.
It goes on. This seat is pretty damn red and likely out of reach but to me, this is another reminder that cruelty can be an identity and a form of identity politics. The Republican party is not sending us their best.
You forgot Ohio in the list of ‘26 Governors’ races. Sherrod Brown has said he’s thinking about it.
Guessing Ohio was considered too red. I think we have to fight for it still though and would put it in the five red states outside of the seven swing states we should invest long term in.
Ohio was the closest red (as opposed to purple) state this year. A normie Dem could probably beat a MAGA Republican for governor in a good cycle for Dems.
Illinois, too, even though it's just as Blue.
We did reference both states in the intro as "stretch" possibilities! We felt 16 states was already _lot_, so we had to draw the line somewhere. But like I say, I am certain we will cover all these and more!
MN-Gov - We haven’t heard too much chatter about a third Walz run and with our huge bench, it’s not necessary nor wanted. It’s been awhile since we’ve had someone go for three terms, let’s not rock the boat. And after the VP loss, it’s a good time to pass the torch.
While I mention our huge bench, it’s Lt Gov Peggy Flanagan’s for the taking for the DFL. Perfect profile of having started working with education non-profits and becoming a Mpls school board member. She served one term and then ran for the state house. The race was a big battle for a North Mpls seat where it was an old white guy incumbent against the young Native woman in a close to equal plurality black/white seat. She ended up having to drop out of the primary due to her mom’s health issues, which bummed out progressives.
She kept up the good fight and eventually won a state house seat in St Louis Park, an upper income first ring suburb. This led to getting picked for Lt Gov by Walz. He already knew he’d be up against someone from the cities for the DFL nod who will attack his record as not liberal enough. So, he picked one of the most beloved progressives who is also now a suburban mom. It was the perfect move for a Greater MN politician facing an endorsement/primary process dominated by the Twin Cities metro.
We’ve never had a female governor and DFLers are getting irritated. Women won the last two competitive DFL endorsements but then lost to Govs Dayton and Walz in the primary. This felt like a silent understanding that we’ll get the safer choice in Walz now and then we’ll get Flanagan after that. And, unlike previous Lt Govs, Flanagan is included in tv ads, is constantly in the news and uses her office for advocacy.
Still, there are plenty of politicians wanting to move up and the spots are limited and already filled up. SoS Steve Simon is young enough to go for a third term. I have a feeling Ellison sits in that seat until a bad midterm year knocks him out or old age.
What is DFL? Democratic Farm Labor Party?
On a separate note, far better that Jared Golden remain in the House than run for statewide office. While a good fit for ME-02 and probably the best we can do here, I seriously doubt that Golden has the gravitas and intellectual chops to be a good governor. Janet Mills has been excellent!
DFL stands for Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party, the official name of the Dems' Minnesota branch.
I mean it is so early as to be completely pointless but... off to the races!
North Carolina Senate Polling:
Roy Cooper (D): 46%
Lara Trump (R): 44%
Roy Cooper (D): 45%
Thom Tillis (R): 44%
Victory Insights / Nov 29, 2024 / n=800
(R-Pollster)
We need this one. I feel like it was implicitly stated that Cooper didn't go for VP so he could run for this?
Roy Cooper withdrew from VP consideration for one simple reason: the minute Cooper left the state, Mark Robinson would have become acting governor. Do I need to add details about such a calamity?
I assume candidates withdraw because they know they're not getting it
According to this poll, Lara has a huge lead over Tillis in the primary.
Can she run in NC if she's appointed to replace Rubio in FL? There sure seems to be a groundswell to get her into the Senate. I presume she has a very impressive resume! [sorry, don't know which is the sarcasm emoji]
Reading that New York and California could lose up to 4 seats each while Texas and Florida could gain then after the 2030 census.
Midwest continues to shrink while the south booms in population.
If Democrats cannot solidify Georgia and gain North Carolina, our House and Electoral Vote margins will be insufficient to win ever again.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/20/census-population-estimates-reapportionment-00132620
I think the 2014 predictions were a lot more dire for us than the 2020 census revealed. It's hard to be accurate this far out, especially with the early trendlines of this decade being extenuating circumstances.
I do expect the 2030 census to be bad for us. The question is how bad. Housing policy is something blue states need to work on. People leave for cheaper housing.
I think it's beyond housing. Fairly or infairly, CA/NY and other big blue states/cities are painted as crime-infested, ultra-liberal, and overrun by homelessness. We need new governors who tack to the center on crime while remaining true to progressive social values (kinda like Polis before he went loopy last week) to stop the bleeding.
Yes, Kathy Hochul and Eric Adams are ultra liberals. And people need to leave New York for Florida and Texas, where the murder rate is significantly higher.
Who knows if they "need" to -- but they are. TX and FL population is booming as CA and NY is stagnating. Perception is all that matters. I feel like we just had an election where the Dem argument was "you're wrong, voters -- inflation is down, immigration is under control, and crime isn't as bad as you think" and lost resoundingly?
And since you brought up NY -- I'd bet money that if it's Mike Lawler vs. Kathy Hochul in 2026, Lawler wins. Hope she bows out or gets primaried.
“Perception is all that matters.” Maybe for people thinking of moving in, but not for people already there.
It has very little to do with crime or perceived crime. Cost of living and housing is definitely the top, both of which are harder to solve than a lot of people seem to think.
It isn't just simply just cost of living and housing but also the supply and demand side of things, especially considering the technology industry has made an impact not only on housing costs but also the overall debate on adverse impacts on neighborhoods and social issues.
There are plenty of CA residents fleeing the state for lower cost of living but that isn't bringing the costs down quickly enough.
If only the exodus from California could be optimized for political gain! A few hundred thousand non-MAGA Californians moving to low-population Red states such as Wyoming, Montana, and North and South Dakota, would go a long ways toward helping Democrats win the Senate, and more!
I welcome more CA residents leaving the state, except those who are not wealthy or are artists, filmmakers, musicians, non-profits leaders, etc.
GA and TX are the states that are certainly benefitting the most from transplants although Montana out of all the states you mentioned would likely be more appealing to transplants. WY is so dark red that it would take a complete makeover of the state from the wilderness landscape in order to be friendly to Democrats.
SF and Oakland both kicked out their DAs and mayors. LA as well. Prop 36 passed with the highest margin out of all of the statewide initiatives. Foolish to say crime (or perception of crime) isn't a driving factor here.
Aren't we talking about population loss, not cities kicking out their left leaning leaders?
Yes, we are talking about why people are leaving blue cities and states, and how perception of crime is a part of that (evidenced by the election results cited).
There seems to be an impulse to exclusively blame lack of housing for the population loss, and while that is certainly a major factor, I do not believe it is the only one.
Breed was kicked out of office because of multiple reasons, not all because she was the same Mayor as Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao.
Breed had an ego problem ended up being more divisive for San Franciscans early on with her lackluster handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides the crime problem, Breed was getting way too caught with the YIMBY agenda without seeing things in the rear view mirror enough. She was also tied to corrupt local city government officials (even dated the former public works director who got arrested by the FBI), made not only sexiest but racist remarks towards one of the supervisors and her fellow opponents in the mayoral race. Breed also pissed off the film community early on by banning concession food from being sold during the pandemic. She kept trying to act like she was being hip to San Franciscans but didn’t assert enough bold leadership early on in her tenure. The list goes on.
Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao’s home got raided by the FBI. Nuff said.
CA and NY aren't the only blue states seeing slower than national growth. CA and NY are also far more than SF/LA and NYC. New England's population has seen lackluster growth for generations. The northeast has been losing electoral votes for even longer. These trends far predate those perceptions you mention.
Plus, what you say could prevent people from moving to somewhere, but it's not going to make them move away from that place unless that perception is reinforced by the reality they experience.
The problem is and has been that blue areas are more costly to live in. As that gap gets wider, the problem gets bigger.
This is a constant that applies anywhere, not just blue states. Look at Austin, initially housing was affordable and cheap. Now as demand as spiked and more people move in, housing prices have ballooned. Likewise look at Montana, the massive influx of newcomers have effectively priced out native Montanans homeowners and prospective homebuyers making real estate prices soar. Unfortunately this is a natural consequence of economics. Supply and demand. If more people over time find a place desirable to live and seek it out, demand and thus prices will continue to rise.
Austin's also a red hot hub for the tech industry so there's that to take into account as well. Elon Musk moved Tesla Motors to the city.
Absolutely, but it matters how hard we push to increase supply. Many major cities and their suburbs, especially in blue states, have very high demand to live there. Local leadership should be increasing the housing supply as much as they can. Efforts have been disappointing almost everywhere; more often than not, efforts have been non-existent or even actively working against increasing housing supply.
I said it years and years ago, and if anything I believe it more strongly than I did back then. Housing costs is a major political liability for us, both directly in the ballot box but also indirectly in how it shapes where people live. No one likes paying $2k+/month on rent, and they will blame that on the people in charge, fairly or not — and many of them will instead move to a cheaper red state and be influenced by its politics.
This should be something we really care about, too, on policy grounds. The more densely populated someone's home region is, the easier it is to get them on board with more government services. The more densely people live, the more cost effective those services become. The more densely people live, the more progressive they will become, as they are exposed to people of all walks of life and needs. The more densely people live, the less their impact on the environment.
Democrats have huge electoral and policy incentives to increase housing supply in the places where we hold power. We need to actually do it.
Among other things, Florida will throw a wrench into future calculus and predictions. Climate change is not only wreaking havoc during hurricane season and encroaching on the land, it's fast making Florida's property tax and housing insurance skyrocket. In many cases, it's reached the point where providing insurance has become unprofitable and thus unpalatable, so many insurance companies are increasingly leaving Florida. Florida may continue to siphon in retirees, but it's likely at it's peak population growth now. Georgia and North Carolina will be future priorities for Democrats, and perhaps also winning back Iowa and Ohio.
I think we should be working on Nebraska and Kansas too. Start with anti gerrymandering and building benches. Kansas overreach on school board has already shown that moderate pols can win.
History shows seat projecting this far out is a fool's errand. I'd bet Florida's growth peters out the latter half of the decade as insurance costs cripple the state.
It's probably helpful to put some ot the article into context. First, the reapportionment estimates were done by a Republican outfit. So they are certain to talk up gains in Red states. Second, growth/migration patterns showed a big shift to red states during covid, but since then much less so. (Fewer dark red or blue states on the more recent map.) Third, this is really based in 3 years data. 2024-2030 is a long time.
Here are some not-too-unlikely things that might occur in the next 7 years that could shift migration patterns... (By far an exhaustive list)
People who have moved to Florida find it "too damn hot/crowded." I'm suprised that with 2 of the fastest growing metro areas in the country in Charleston and Myrtle Beach that SC isn't predicted to pick up a seat. Lots of those folks are "halfbacks" who left "Up North" for Florida and are now moving Florida for SC because they can't take Florida for some reason. Others are moving to coastal NC too. Doesn't shift the balance of electoral votes from blue to red states exactly, but reduces Florida weight in EC.
Related, heat waves, multiple years of hurricanes and the insurance chaos they create, droughts and drought related utility rate increases raise Southern states' cost of living. Northern states, with milder winters and better access to water thanks to glacial landscapes become more attractive. This stems migration to the South or shifts it from Deep South to border states. We are already seeing property insurance rates double (not exaggerating) in SC.
GOP overreach in policy both depress internal immigration and increases emigration from red states. Considering that this overlaps pretty closely spatially with climate events you could have additive effects.
One thing Florida has going for it is that DeSantis is actually relatively good at dealing with natural disasters and planning for sea level rise. Texas, on the other hand, is not, whether hurricanes or cold weather power outages that cause Senators to flee for Mexico.
That said, the article is shot over the bow of Dems that live in growing states. Do like Michigan did last decade and get you ballot initiatives set to counteract gerrymandering and elect judges that will uphold the people's will.
Should have also said thanks to Gina for posting the link. Thinking about the long term for swing states is a good part of the ancestry of this site, imo.
Hot, humid and crowded – that’s my idea of purgatory. Moreover, with inland houses soon to become oceanfront properties, as well as a climate-change-denying governor who has an overabundance of right-wing lunatic supporters, Florida is definitely not on my bucket list of places to visit, let alone a place I ever wish to inhabit.
I wonder if mass deportations could hold down the gains for Texas and Florida.
CA 13 San JOaquin County has posted its last votes. Grey picks up 4 and now is at +231.
https://x.com/rpyers/status/1863655212830838913
Any idea how many CA-13 votes remain to be counted, and where?
Not many are left. In some of the counties it is down to ballots that are curable, and the window to do that is closing fast if not already done. There are also some conditional ballots (from E-day voter registration). I would guess that there are fewer than 1000 votes remaining. I am calling it for Gray.
Tomorrow is the last day to cure. I agree that Gray has this one.
Just using the SoS website, I'm estimating that there are as many as 2200 ballot which could still be cured, but after 27 days and one day left, I doubt very many will be. Otherwise, using the counties' estimated number of ballots left to count, it looks like abut 200-230 in the district. This race should be called.
Looks like it’s 229 now.
CNN has the lead down to 143. Is that out of date? Usually their numbers have matched comments here exactly.
CA-Gov: In California, Rick Caruso (Ind?) vs. Katie Porter (D) could be a Dem loss if those two make into the runoff. He codes as a Bloomberg-y moderate and she'll be viewed as a liberal continuation of failed progressive policies (certainly unfair to her). Would keep an eye on this one.
What is this in reference to? I don’t think Porter is running for anything.
My bad -- edited comment. California Governor. It's rumored that she's considering.
We already have a crowded race to begin with considering the following Democrats are running:
Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis
CA State Superintentent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond
Former CA State Controller Betty Yee
State Senate Pro Tem Tony Atkins
Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
If Katie Porter enters the race, she'd be the 7th Democrat running, which might heat up the race depending on where things are the others with fundraising and traction. No doubt she'd be credible.
Rick Caruso's appeal statewide is questionable if he runs as an Independent. Even while he spent $80 million of his own money in the 2022 LA Mayoral Race, he lost to Karen Bass by nearly 10% points. SF Mayor-Elect Daniel Lurie did self-fund his mayoral campaign (he is the heir to the Levi Strauss fortune) and beat incumbent Mayor London Breed by double digits but the difference with his campaign was that he was more focused, had a stronger ground game and as a native San Franciscan listened to a lot of the anger residents had with the city's direction. Caruso is not that politically savvy whereas Lurie is.
I doubt Caruso is even going to advance beyond the top-two primary, especially considering the crowded field. The Democratic Party machine statewide is just a much different beast for Caruso and there's no telling he'll even be able to fight the media market that Democrats have. He's also got another problem: Another wealthy businessman like him, Stephen Cloobeck, is running as a Democrat. Both of them are pretty much in the same caliber.
I'd venture to say the 2026 gubernatorial race will likely be a Kounalakis vs. Porter race in the end if Porter jumps in. If this is the case, it'll be one hell of a race and a historic one considering CA has never elected a woman as Governor.
If Caruso is the only serious non-Dem running (a big "if") then he could absolutely make the top 2. A lot of the issues you cite with his flawed LA run would not necessarily be replicated statewide. I agree if he runs as a Dem then he has no lane.
But if the ~35-40% of the electorate who is GOP coalesces around him, it's certainly possible. So far the crowded field is just among Dems -- none of the people you cited are getting Republican votes in thje primary.
There most likely will be some GOP candidates. The two I've heard mentioned are Brian Dahle, who ran in 2022, and Riverside Sheriff Chad Bianco, who is the Trumpier one, I believe.
Unless Caruso changes his campaign to being more than about what might appeal to the LA Chamber of Commerce would approve of, he’s got nothing.
Caruso needs a real campaign strategy, not just $$$$.
Is anyone else having trouble with the reply button being impossible to press on longer comments? I tried multiple browsers, disabling all extensions. The comment below ends up overlapping the cancel/reply buttons and makes them inaccessible.
A workaround I found was to make a shorter comment and then edit in the rest of what I wanted to say immediately afterwards; the edit menu still enables longer comments. Post button for this top-level comment works fine too. So it is only replies that are problematic.
Not having that problem, but the only posts that show up on the app are the daily updates. The weekend open threads and things like the "overtime" results tracker don't show up unless I go to TDB on the web first, then when I click those links it shifts to the app.
Yes! I’ve been wondering whether to mention this, thinking I might be the only one having this problem. Notably, this is also happening on another Substack to which I subscribe, so it’s not a Downballot problem per se.
Interestingly, I found the exact workaround that you did!
(My MacBook system and browser: Mac OS X 14.6.1. Firefox 132.0.2.)
I'm really sorry about this! Shoot me an email and we'll touch base with Substack tech support, which is usually quite responsive.
I was in the middle of typing out an email to you and taking screenshots of the bug in action... and now I cannot recreate it. Hopefully it was fixed on Substack's end? If it reappears I will send you info as best I can.
Thanks for working quickly to address this for us!
I can't take credit but... I'll take credit! 😊
Yes, thanks for the tip
It has been hard to reply for several days for me.
Me too! I've done exactly what you had specified in your 2nd paragraph and it's worked fine for me.
Not sure what's been going on her for the last number of days.
Former CA Governor Jerry Brown was interviewed over a week ago and gave his thoughts on where the Democratic Party is. He's pretty blunt.
He has argued the following:
-Biden should have gotten out a long time ago in running for re-election.
-Democrats should focus on an economic agenda that addresses those who are being left out in the economy whereas the wealthy are benefitting the most.
-On a funny side note, Brown says running for political office is like crack in that politicans continue to get addicted to it.
I'll never forget when Brown as Governor fought the UC Regents over tuition increases. Not to mention having balanced the CA state budget for the first time in ages.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEcTfo20bKw
One more CA13 county done. Madera-a big R county- only found 2 votes for Duarte. Grey still leads by 229. https://x.com/catargetbot0001/status/1863731983962038659?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
A better county for Duarte-Merced. Grey now leads by 143. https://x.com/djsokespeaking/status/1863743034287886783?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
signature cures from Adam Gray's Merced County home turf are in, adding 358 votes that break 62%/38% in Republican John Duarte's favor, netting him 86 votes.
Looks like only Stanislaus and Fresno are left to cure.
FL-06. Randy Fine the likely Republican nominee fits right in with the current Republican Party.
1) "The “Hebrew Hammer” is coming. @RashidaTlaib and @IlhanMN
might consider leaving before I get there. #BombsAway"
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/115740418.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/randy-fines-bombs-away-threat-to-muslim-congresswomen-ilhan-omar-rashida-tlaib/articleshow/115740418.cms
2) Judge holds Rep. Randy Fine in contempt, orders anger-management course for actions during video hearing.
https://mynews13.com/fl/orlando/news/2024/10/01/judge-holds-rep--randy-fine-in-contempt--ordered-to-complete-anger-management-course-for-actions-during-video-hearing
3) Florida lawmaker sparks outrage for celebrating Turkish-American activist's killing in West Bank Representative Randy Fine, who has a history of anti-Muslim rhetoric, faces calls for censure over post celebrating Israel’s killing of Aysenur Ezgi Eygi.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/fire-away-randy-fine-sparks-outrage-celebrating-killing-us-turkish-activist-west-bank
4) Florida Rep. Randy Fine threatened Special Olympics funding over school board member feud, texts show
https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/04/23/randy-fine-threatened-special-olympics-city-funding-over-personal-spat/7416445001/
It goes on. This seat is pretty damn red and likely out of reach but to me, this is another reminder that cruelty can be an identity and a form of identity politics. The Republican party is not sending us their best.