State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) has emerged as the leading candidate for the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson)’s seat, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed, with Pou picking up the backing of local Democratic party leaders in parts of Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties.
I'm hearing Trump may be a huge orange chicken (with orange sauce 😂) and drop out of the ABC debate on September 10th. If he does, will this yellow/orange cowardise hurt him with undecideds and Independents?! 💙🇺🇲🌊🙏
David Nir posted this to discord yesterday. Andrew Do, an OC (Calif) County supervisor has been under investigation for corruption, and the feds raided his family's houses.
This has several implications for OC elections. First, Do's county district could be in play taking Dems to a 4-1 majority, something I didn't think I would live long enough to see.
Second, Do is very close to Michelle Steel, R incumbent in Cd45, and who has a litany of corruption in her years in public office including inside dealing in real estate transactions and airport access. She is already going into the red baiting mode and again is running scared.
Third, Scott Baugh R running for Porter's open seat against Min has his own baggage including an election felony conviction (overturned on appeal on a technicality). He was behind OC's Latino voter intimidation in the early 80s.
I hope we can highlight the Republican history of bad behavior in the county and hold/pickup seats.
Fortunately, I believe all politicians behind the county having Latino swim day where after they drained and disinfected the pools for white people, are dead.
It's getting less embarrassing to admit you live in OC.
IA-04: Republican Kevin Virgil is calling on his supporters to split their tickets between Trump and Ryan Melton, the Democratic challenger to Rep. Randy Feenstra.
Virgil got nearly 40% in the GOP primary (with Steve King's backing) against Feenstra (who defeated King in the 2020 primary here).
It's not a competitive district but I am curious to see how many Virgil supporters will cross over. If Melton got even 40% of the vote (he got about 30% in 2022) people would notice.
If Democrats can win just 1 House seat in Iowa out of 4, it will be a result. When was the last time they were completely locked out of the entire delegation (House + Senate)?! 😢
At least not yet. I think this is about trying to work the refs to alter the rules of debate to something more favorable to himself, since he knows that in something even somewhat close to a normal debate format he’d get his clock cleaned. Then, if he does not succeed, he can drop out and say it was rigged against him.
He's kind of damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. If he debates, I'd be shocked if Harris doesn't wipe the floor with him. If he doesn't debate, Harris and Walz will ridicule him as a chicken and an incompetent.
I suspect he'll do one debate, the press will desperately try to carry water for him in the lead up to and aftermath of the debate, few minds will actually change, but it'll continue his gradual erosion of soft support and have a marginal, but negative, impact on his chances.
I shared this in the Discord, but Politico out with a great article about how Latino voters are giving Harris a second look in large part because they couldn't stomach Biden's age.
Wow. It seems unusual to me to see a retiring incumbent appearing in a negative as like that in a primary. I’ve seen a lot of ads of incumbents touting how great their endorsed successor is, but not many of them trashing their chosen successor’s rivals. Are there cases I’m missing?
Man, polling this year. Most recent national polls on 538: Morning Consult, Echelon Insights, Kaplan Strategies, Angus Reid, Activote, RMG Research, Outward Intelligence, Redfield and Wilton, Bullfinch Group, YouGov, Farleigh Dickinson, SoCal Strategies, Big Village, Embold Research, Data for Progress, Emerson, and then finally Ipsos/Washington Post!
They also weighted full RV sample relatively old at 29% seniors, and less Black at 10%. Party identification at R+1, generic voting D+2. Trump favorable -10. Harris favorable even.
The write-up says that Harris fails to pull away. Hmm, if this is the best they can find as of now…
If it was indeed done for Red State, I have to admit I'm pretty surprised they didn't bury it because 4 hours ago I would have expected Red State would bury a poll with a Harris + 7 topline
It's actually a very detailed write-up.. Worth the read imo ..it definitely downplays the likely voter numbers, and highlights the registered voter numbers
Looking back, I was glad how smooth the DNC went. Some larpers on Monday broke a fence, but got herded back to the park before hitting the 2nd fence. And then they largely stayed home every day after that. Props to Pritzker and the Mayor for not fudging it.
Glad to hear it. If Trump wins the Presidency, the House might be the only thing that prevents far-right legislation from passing, including a repeal of the minimal gun safety laws we have.
The Donald Trump campaign is placing new ad spending on cable news nets on the Effectv interconnect in West Palm Beach, Fla. Start date is tomorrow, 8/27; 15-second spots
Colorado GOP ousts Dave Williams (maybe?) and the CO GOP is still a mess.
"“My job is to get this thing back on track as fast as possible and make sure it’s rebuilt correctly to support Republican candidates,” said Bremer, a former chair of the El Paso County Republican Party and a 2022 candidate for U.S. Senate, on Monday.
But Williams, in a text message to The Denver Post, called the contention that he was no longer the head of the GOP in Colorado “beyond absurd.” He said a “fringe party faction” that met in Brighton over the weekend does not “get to decide for 400 plus members (of the central committee) at a fake meeting.”
It's always a state bylaws issue.. Some states have different forms of removal, but all state party's have bylaws that National party has approved.. More Republicans in disarray stories, the better.. Rachel Maddow was discussing this, as well as the Michigan State party kicking out the past chairman at the state convention over the weekend
Food for thoughts on a Monday night - between Florida and Texas, which state do we think will be closer in the Presidential and Senatorial elections and why?
TX Pres closer than FL Pres - 1) TX's influx population is decidedly younger, more left-leaning and diverse than the snowbirds settling in FL, possibly enough to erase the 2 point gap between them in 2020
TX Sen closer than FL Sen - Ted Cruz is uniquely disliked while Scott while not loved is more of a generic GOP politician
I’d argue FL and TX will be more likely to go in the following direction:
FL Presidential Race - More likely to give Kamala Harris a win vs. Texas.
TX Presidential Race - Yes, TX is growing in more Democratic Party-friendly demographics but President Biden lost the state by less than 6% points. Not certain Kamala Harris will get enough turnout for an actual win but it’s more probable she’ll cut the margin of loss to lower than how much Biden got in the state back in 2020.
TX-SEN Race - Ted Cruz is a fool and could very well lose. He won re-election by less than 3% points back in 2018 thanks to Beto O’Rourke’s outstanding all-county campaign and robust turnout machine. Cruz is making no effort to appeal to independents and moderates.
It has less likelihood to flip simply because of the Lean Red nature of Florida these days and also Rick Scott’s ability to win elections by narrow or tiny percentages. Scott has mainly benefitted from low turnout elections but he’s also a freshman Senator who was the worst NRSC Chairman the GOP ever had. He has the personality of a stiff but still has the advantage even amid this.
NJ 9
State Sen. Nellie Pou (D-North Haledon) has emerged as the leading candidate for the late Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson)’s seat, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed, with Pou picking up the backing of local Democratic party leaders in parts of Bergen, Hudson and Passaic counties.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/pou-emerging-as-clear-frontrunner-in-race-for-pascrells-seat/
All three Democratic county chairmen in NJ-9 endorse @NelliePou
as their candidate for Congress to replace Bill Pascrell.
https://x.com/wildstein/status/1828100217884885267
Now the question is which state house rep moves up to replace her in the senate and who takes the state house seat.
Sumter will take the senate seat would be my guess.
And they give Bergen the newly open state house seat.
I'm hearing Trump may be a huge orange chicken (with orange sauce 😂) and drop out of the ABC debate on September 10th. If he does, will this yellow/orange cowardise hurt him with undecideds and Independents?! 💙🇺🇲🌊🙏
Evidently the Harris campaign wants hot mics during the debate, since they believe they can goad him into a meltdown on live TV.
It certainly doesn't help him..weakness is not a good strategy
Trump isn’t winning Independents to begin with and they’re only going to be further turned off by this.
Undecideds may follow the direction of Independents but it remains to be seen by how much percentage wise this is to be the case.
Trump à l'orange?
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-23/calls-for-orange-county-supervisor-andrew-do-to-resign-grow-amid-federal-probe
David Nir posted this to discord yesterday. Andrew Do, an OC (Calif) County supervisor has been under investigation for corruption, and the feds raided his family's houses.
This has several implications for OC elections. First, Do's county district could be in play taking Dems to a 4-1 majority, something I didn't think I would live long enough to see.
Second, Do is very close to Michelle Steel, R incumbent in Cd45, and who has a litany of corruption in her years in public office including inside dealing in real estate transactions and airport access. She is already going into the red baiting mode and again is running scared.
Third, Scott Baugh R running for Porter's open seat against Min has his own baggage including an election felony conviction (overturned on appeal on a technicality). He was behind OC's Latino voter intimidation in the early 80s.
I hope we can highlight the Republican history of bad behavior in the county and hold/pickup seats.
Fortunately, I believe all politicians behind the county having Latino swim day where after they drained and disinfected the pools for white people, are dead.
It's getting less embarrassing to admit you live in OC.
One thing for sure:
Orange County isn’t in the Reagan era anymore.
IA-04: Republican Kevin Virgil is calling on his supporters to split their tickets between Trump and Ryan Melton, the Democratic challenger to Rep. Randy Feenstra.
https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2024/08/24/feenstra-challenger-urges-split-ticket-vote-for-democrat-in-ia-04/
Virgil got nearly 40% in the GOP primary (with Steve King's backing) against Feenstra (who defeated King in the 2020 primary here).
It's not a competitive district but I am curious to see how many Virgil supporters will cross over. If Melton got even 40% of the vote (he got about 30% in 2022) people would notice.
Moreover ... these voters are largely in the Omaha media market's Dem advertising campaign zone.
It sounds purely spiteful. I doubt it will be successful. How many Trumpers would actually vote Democratic out of spite?
If Democrats can win just 1 House seat in Iowa out of 4, it will be a result. When was the last time they were completely locked out of the entire delegation (House + Senate)?! 😢
1955-56. The only Democrat to win an Iowa congressional seat in either chamber from 1942-54 was Sen. Guy Gillette in 1948.
They're completely locked out now. It's possible not everyone reading knew that. Here's a good source for the composition of U.S. House seats: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/IA#representatives
Be pretty strange if IA-04 was where we broke thru.
If that’s the case, IA-01 and IA-02 would likely follow.
-Very- strange!
Yes, they'd see it that he's afraid of her. I don't think he'll drop out.
At least not yet. I think this is about trying to work the refs to alter the rules of debate to something more favorable to himself, since he knows that in something even somewhat close to a normal debate format he’d get his clock cleaned. Then, if he does not succeed, he can drop out and say it was rigged against him.
I can actually see him not debating
He's kind of damned if he does, damned if he doesn't. If he debates, I'd be shocked if Harris doesn't wipe the floor with him. If he doesn't debate, Harris and Walz will ridicule him as a chicken and an incompetent.
I suspect he'll do one debate, the press will desperately try to carry water for him in the lead up to and aftermath of the debate, few minds will actually change, but it'll continue his gradual erosion of soft support and have a marginal, but negative, impact on his chances.
I shared this in the Discord, but Politico out with a great article about how Latino voters are giving Harris a second look in large part because they couldn't stomach Biden's age.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/08/26/kamala-harris-latino-voters-00173976
NH-02
Annie Kuster narrates a Colin Van Ostern attack ad against Maggie Goodlander.
https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/7a81bf05-af65-48c7-b253-f48db12130dc/
Wow. It seems unusual to me to see a retiring incumbent appearing in a negative as like that in a primary. I’ve seen a lot of ads of incumbents touting how great their endorsed successor is, but not many of them trashing their chosen successor’s rivals. Are there cases I’m missing?
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1828126050359919035
New General Election poll
🔵 Harris 52% (+7)
🔴 Trump 45%
Kaplan S. #N/A - 1190 LV - 8/24
RV at 50-46. It seems to be a poll done for RedState.com.
Is it a partisan pollster??.. Kaplan S..??
Kaplan Research is run by Doug Kaplan, who ran Gravis Marketing. Gravis does NOT have a good reputation.
Man, polling this year. Most recent national polls on 538: Morning Consult, Echelon Insights, Kaplan Strategies, Angus Reid, Activote, RMG Research, Outward Intelligence, Redfield and Wilton, Bullfinch Group, YouGov, Farleigh Dickinson, SoCal Strategies, Big Village, Embold Research, Data for Progress, Emerson, and then finally Ipsos/Washington Post!
Anyone seen any other post convention polls??
They also weighted full RV sample relatively old at 29% seniors, and less Black at 10%. Party identification at R+1, generic voting D+2. Trump favorable -10. Harris favorable even.
The write-up says that Harris fails to pull away. Hmm, if this is the best they can find as of now…
If it was indeed done for Red State, I have to admit I'm pretty surprised they didn't bury it because 4 hours ago I would have expected Red State would bury a poll with a Harris + 7 topline
It's actually a very detailed write-up.. Worth the read imo ..it definitely downplays the likely voter numbers, and highlights the registered voter numbers
Looking back, I was glad how smooth the DNC went. Some larpers on Monday broke a fence, but got herded back to the park before hitting the 2nd fence. And then they largely stayed home every day after that. Props to Pritzker and the Mayor for not fudging it.
It appears the pro-Palestine protestors didn’t cause havoc, which is good.
I saw that Chicago police prepared for up to 25k protestors a night, but no single night ended up having more than around 4k.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mike-bloomberg-drops-10m-boost-113019584.html&ved=2ahUKEwjsz5Xly5OIAxXok4kEHY1kFCwQxfQBKAB6BAgFEAI&usg=AOvVaw2R1HfHhGUX19lh1HVGHAm6
Mike Bloomberg gives $10mil cash infusion to House Majority PAC
Glad to hear it. If Trump wins the Presidency, the House might be the only thing that prevents far-right legislation from passing, including a repeal of the minimal gun safety laws we have.
Bloomberg did something similar in 2018 and it helped multiple moderate Democrats win key House races.
This should help Democrats in CA and NY with pickup opportunities.
Couch cushion change for Bloomberg.
R internal for VA-7 Vindman by 1.
https://x.com/samshirazim/status/1828187139701399783?s=61&t=5copDbz1aPl7ASsRCUclLg
That would be a hold. This is Spanberger's district.
Didn’t the district move more to the left in recent redistricting?
The Donald Trump campaign is placing new ad spending on cable news nets on the Effectv interconnect in West Palm Beach, Fla. Start date is tomorrow, 8/27; 15-second spots
https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1828087585664815170
The Trump campaign is now spending money running ads just so Trump sees them.
Maybe they're also afraid of losing Florida...
If Kamala Harris wins FL, then the math Trump faces will not work for him.
We're all aware of that, but can he count, other than to grift?
You mean his chances in FL?
Well, Trump can certainly turn out his most vocal base and DeSantis supporters will likely go in droves for Trump.
Outside of this, FL can be a swingy state even if it’s a Lean Red state nowadays. I don’t know how Trump would address this.
Colorado GOP ousts Dave Williams (maybe?) and the CO GOP is still a mess.
"“My job is to get this thing back on track as fast as possible and make sure it’s rebuilt correctly to support Republican candidates,” said Bremer, a former chair of the El Paso County Republican Party and a 2022 candidate for U.S. Senate, on Monday.
But Williams, in a text message to The Denver Post, called the contention that he was no longer the head of the GOP in Colorado “beyond absurd.” He said a “fringe party faction” that met in Brighton over the weekend does not “get to decide for 400 plus members (of the central committee) at a fake meeting.”
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/08/26/colorado-republican-party-chair-dave-williams-ousting-eli-bremer/
It's always a state bylaws issue.. Some states have different forms of removal, but all state party's have bylaws that National party has approved.. More Republicans in disarray stories, the better.. Rachel Maddow was discussing this, as well as the Michigan State party kicking out the past chairman at the state convention over the weekend
Food for thoughts on a Monday night - between Florida and Texas, which state do we think will be closer in the Presidential and Senatorial elections and why?
TX Pres closer than FL Pres - 1) TX's influx population is decidedly younger, more left-leaning and diverse than the snowbirds settling in FL, possibly enough to erase the 2 point gap between them in 2020
TX Sen closer than FL Sen - Ted Cruz is uniquely disliked while Scott while not loved is more of a generic GOP politician
None of them are likely to flip to DEM though.
Polling has been suggesting that FL will be closer. Who knows? Either result wouldn't shock me.
I’d argue FL and TX will be more likely to go in the following direction:
FL Presidential Race - More likely to give Kamala Harris a win vs. Texas.
TX Presidential Race - Yes, TX is growing in more Democratic Party-friendly demographics but President Biden lost the state by less than 6% points. Not certain Kamala Harris will get enough turnout for an actual win but it’s more probable she’ll cut the margin of loss to lower than how much Biden got in the state back in 2020.
TX-SEN Race - Ted Cruz is a fool and could very well lose. He won re-election by less than 3% points back in 2018 thanks to Beto O’Rourke’s outstanding all-county campaign and robust turnout machine. Cruz is making no effort to appeal to independents and moderates.
Also, regarding the FL-SEN Race:
It has less likelihood to flip simply because of the Lean Red nature of Florida these days and also Rick Scott’s ability to win elections by narrow or tiny percentages. Scott has mainly benefitted from low turnout elections but he’s also a freshman Senator who was the worst NRSC Chairman the GOP ever had. He has the personality of a stiff but still has the advantage even amid this.