Here's a question for everyone over the weekend. Most Democrats are assuming (hoping?) that 2026 will be a Democratic wave year, just like 2018 was. In the 2018 House elections, there were a few surprise Democratic pickups that were not competitive in 2016 and that nobody expected to flip (the best examples are SC-01 and OK-05). My question is, if 2026 does end up being a Democratic wave, then what are some of our guesses for surprise Democratic flips this time that weren't competitive in this year's elections?
I anticipate IA will have 1-2 surprise pickups in the House for Democrats depending on the political environment heading to the 2026 midterms. Democrats could pick up two House seats in the state that were close in the 2024 elections and possibly get 1-2 more. IA-04 used to be closer as when Steve King was still in the House and went more nuts.
I think IA-01 and 3 are both decent targets, but both have been close/competitive enough that they wouldn't really be surprises. IA-02 is a possible surprise, and 4 is probably impossible since GOP primary voters yeeted King in 2020.
CO-05 if the floor really falls out in El Paso county. It was actually the best performing district for Republicans (55-41), Bobert slightly underperformed that in the 4th (54-42).
El Paso county actually moved Dem at the top of the ticket Boberts personal baggage is the only reason it was a 12 point race instead of 22. don’t see a path to victory there it’s essentially West Kansas which is why she moved over there in the first place and certain it was Trumps best seat in the state.
It’s actually mostly outer Denver suburbs. Douglas County which is very educated also shifted left and that’s about half the seat. The rural areas is only about a quarter of the seat and the rest are the other exurbs around Loveland.
I wanted to hear what districts others here had in mind before chiming in with my own. One district that definitely comes to my mind here is VA-01. As Mark mentioned above, the Richmond suburbs continue to trend Democratic - Harris +9 in Chesterfield is amazing, and Henrico would've swung Democratic as well if not for the turnout drop among African-Americans. The district also contains James City, which continues to trend Democratic, and even Hanover isn't quite as red as it once was. If the Dem could get solid margins out of Henrico, Chesterfield, James City, and Williamsburg, those areas might be able to outvote the rural counties of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. After all, the suburban areas in Henrico and Chesterfield are the same areas that helped Abigail Spanberger defeat Dave Brat in 2018.
Oops, I didn't see this comment before posting mine. I think a surprise pickup could also come from TX-24 or one of the other districts mentioned in this thread on DKE:
Yeah, the 24th, along with the 38th, are pretty much the only Republican-held districts in Texas that don't include any deep-red rural counties to make them redder. I agree that Dems have a bright future in both of them.
One possibility is VA-01, especially if Republican support in the western suburbs of Richmond continues to erode. I could also see us winning VA-02 in 2026, but I wouldn't categorize that as a surprise flip that would come out of nowhere.
I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Likewise, limiting myself to one unpleasant surprise per state was also beyond my capabilities in many states. My lists are a little less structured this year but I suspect you'll recognize the format.
Pleasant Surprises
Madison County, Alabama--Even as Alabama's PVI took a sharp right turn, its second largest county (I hadn't realized till now it surpassed Mobile County) barely moved and remained a single-digit Trump county. Given its demographics, I can foresee this county flipping in a strong Democratic cycle.
Saline County, Arkansas--Not sure if its increasing racial diversity or college-educated demographics, but this suburban Little Rock county was the Natural State's only county to shift in Harris's direction since 2020.
Mesa County, Colorado--Western Colorado's blue shift was a nice development overall, led by this population center. If Lauren Boebert had tried to win again in CO-03, I bet Adam Frisch would have beaten her this year.
Larimer County, Colorado--Heavily Hispanic jurisdictions swung to the right this year in Colorado as everywhere else, but at least in Colorado, it was largely offset by numerous population centers like the Fort Collins area with smaller Hispanic populations that trended blue.
Kent County, Delaware--We all remember Christine O'Donnell's 2010 Senate race as a national joke, but she still managed to win the county that's home to Delaware's capital city, which was a tough nut to crack back then. Fast forward to 2024 and Harris, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Sarah McBride, and Matt Meyer all pulled off victories here.
Cobb County, Georgia--If you go back only 10 years, it would have been hard to imagine that the suburban Atlanta county that was home to Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district would not only go for the Democratic Presidential nominee by double digits, but that it would be one of a small percentage of counties nationally that moved toward the Democrats in a difficult cycle.
Paulding County, Georgia--The western suburbs of Atlanta moved the most toward Harris this year, and while this one is still quite red, I don't think it's out of the question that it could flip blue by 2032 given its trendline.
Jackson County, Illinois--After a collapse for Biden in 2020, I figured the home of Carbondale would be a goner in 2024, easily flipping to Trump. Surprisingly, it got a full point bluer.
Hamilton County, Indiana--I know we were all hoping that Indianapolis' most populous suburban county would flip this year but it still moved toward Harris (along with neighboring Boone and Hendricks counties) in a year when not many places did.
Johnson County, Kansas--Again, we all hoped we'd see 2022 Sharice Davids numbers at the Presidential level this year, but the Sunflower State's most populous county still did its part and consolidated more moderate Republicans toward Harris compared to four years ago.
Sagadahoc County, Maine--Coastal Maine held up pretty well for Harris this year, which was less the case in upper New England than I expected. Sagadahoc was one of two counties to perform better for Harris than for Biden, and with or without Susan Collins on the ballot, we'll need it in two years.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland--It wasn't that long ago when this used to be bright red, holding out even for Bob Dole and John McCain. Not only did it go for Harris by double-digits this year, it's also the population core for a Democrat-held Congressional seat in MD-03.
Ottawa County, Michigan--The core of Michigan's Dutch Calvinist population, Ottawa County was the state's most Republican county for decades. It's still pretty bright red but it was the only population center in Michigan trending against Republicans in 2024.
Hennepin County, Minnesota--The city of Minneapolis and three rings of its western suburbs all held nearly as tight for Harris as they did for Biden four years ago, again offsetting Minnesota's red realignment outside of the metro area.
Sarpy County, Nebraska--While it didn't move enough to dump Don Bacon, it was one of four Nebraska counties to go for shadow Democrat Dan Osborn in the Senate race, making it clear that any potential winning Democratic coalition put together in Nebraska would almost certainly include Sarpy County.
Burlington County, New Jersey--In a state that was a dumpster fire for Democrats this year, Burlington County didn't slip as much as most places for Harris and native son Andy Kim improved upon Menendez's winning margin six years ago.
Los Alamos County, New Mexico--I'm guessing federal employment at the National Laboratory is driving the city/county's blue shift, but it's striking that we're now winning nearly 2-1 in a place that George W. Bush won twice.
Transylvania County, North Carolina--Perhaps the flooding disaster significantly reduced turnout among the more rural jurisdictions of western North Carolina, but I was still surprised to see the region trended toward Harris compared to four years ago. This county in particular was the most surprising to see in the Josh Stein column.
Montgomery County, Ohio--Even as one industrial city after another in the Buckeye State collapses for Democrats, the party keeps managing to hang on in the Dayton area with another narrow win for Harris after a narrow win for Biden four years ago.
Deschutes County, Oregon--Very quickly went from a McCain-Romney county to a double-digit Harris county.
Erie County, Pennsylvania--Given the horrific trendline of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, I figured we'd do quite a bit worse here. Harris didn't win, but Casey pulled it out, which is better than I expected.
Presidio County, Texas--What's their secret? Nearly every RGV border county shifted double digits toward Trump, with the majority of the counties flipping outright. Presidio County shifted only 2 points toward Trump and still went nearly 2-1 Biden.
Utah County, Utah--Even though it's still more than 2-1 Trump, the home of Brigham Young University once again trended toward Harris even as the country (and to a lesser extent the state) trended toward Trump.
Chesterfield County, Virginia--One of the few unambiguously positive developments of this election cycle was the continued blue shift in the Richmond area, helping to offset the unexpected contraction of Democratic support in northern Virginia.
Clark County, Washington--It took a while for Portland's political influence to be felt on the Washington side of the river but we're finally starting to see sustained Democratic improvement in the Vancouver area, so much so that we've nailed down a difficult House seat two cycles in a row.
Clallam County, Washington--One of the counties that has long been a Presidential bellwether breaks its tradition and goes Democrat when the nation goes Republican.
Door County, Wisconsin--The other county often cited as a Presidential bellwether also stays in the Democratic column as the nation goes the other direction.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin--The Harris campaign massively overestimated the number of NeverTrump Republican votes that hadn't already flipped to Biden four years ago, but I suppose given how Republican it was compared to other demographically similar suburban areas elsewhere in the country, it makes some degree of sense that suburban Milwaukee was one of the few places on the map where Harris actually found some more Trump-skeptical Republicans.
Presidio County is apparently a very artsy area, and the people that attracts have kept the county heavily Democratic.
Regarding Union County, NC, I also found it odd that it swung Republican, especially considering that the less educated suburban county to the west, Gaston, swung Democratic. I had thought it would be the other way around.
And Jasper County, SC's Republican shift is because a lot of white people are moving in. Harris actually got almost a thousand more votes than Biden there. It's just that Trump increased his vote total by about 2,800 votes.
Frederick County, MD: never went Dem for president between 1964 and 2020, and Harris did nearly as well as Biden. Also helped to keep a supposedly competitive open congressional seat blue, by a not-that-close 6 points district-wide. (Fun fact: this is the first presidential race since 1860 in which a Republican won nationally but not in Frederick County.)
Virginia Beach: same as Frederick County in 1960s-2010s presidential voting. Biden flipped and Harris (narrowly) held the state's largest city and second largest jurisdiction, after Fairfax County. However, Jen Kiggans kept it and her district red for the House.
What's amazing about this election is Harris held to Biden margins or improved in many of what would've been considered the "bellweathers" of several swing states (particularly GA and WI) and still lost. For example, if you'd told me Harris would definitely improve in Cobb/Paulding in Georgia, I would've thought Harris had the state in the bag.
At least this year expanding OR-05 to include Deschutes/Bend Democrats finally paid off. Doing so also brought a significant number of rural Republicans into the district, helping flip it red in 2022 and probably pissing off most of its Portland-area voters.
Since when? They were more likely to vote Democrats in the 1990s and 2000s than since. Heath Shuler was the last Democrat to win most of those counties until Josh Stein last month.
Madison County is where the City of Huntsville is located and it happens to be the most populated city in Alabama. This is a good sign as going far back as in 2014 the Alabama Democratic Party was literally in ruins.
I know in AL, it as a state has a heavy defense and military business sector, particularly with contractors working for the Department of Defense.
Apache County, Arizona--As badly as Democrats were rebuked by Hispanic voters this year, it appears based on county-level reports that they also took it on the chin with indigenous voters, with one of the clearest examples coming from this key swing state.
Yuma County, Arizona--Hillary came within a couple points of victory here in 2016. Eight years later, Trump +20. I'm sure there will be plenty who will insist until till their last breath that it had nothing to do with the border though just as they insisted when we saw the first big GOP shift in border counties four years ago.
Mississippi County, Arkansas--Long-time Yellow Dog Democrat stronghold with large black population that was a two-time near miss for Obama. Nearly 2-1 for Trump in 2024, exemplifying the magnitude of Democrats' problems in Arkansas. Not sure if black voters are leaving, realigning, or not showing up in disproportionate numbers for things to have gotten this bad. Perhaps a combination of the three.
Imperial County, California--Right up there with Webb County, TX, in the competition for the biggest Democratic collapse in the country among counties with a population of more than 50,000. It went from a 20+ point Biden win to an outright Trump victory in only four years.
San Bernardino County, California--Twenty years of Democratic progress in the Inland Empire erased in one cycle. Goes from a double-digit Biden win in 2020 to a 2024 Trump victory.
San Joaquin County, California--The first Central Valley county to flip blue (Jerry McNerney flipped the seat in 2006) also shifts double-digits toward the GOP for both Trump and Garvey. Kind of amazing House Democrats held up so well in California given the collapse at the top of the ticket.
Adams County, Colorado--Two regions of Colorado shifted to the right in 2024. The first was the rural southern part of the state. The second was the northeastern part of the Denver metro area. Both are heavily Hispanic. The shift to the GOP could possibly have cost us a House seat in CO-03. The shift to the GOP definitely cost us a House seat in CO-08.
New Haven County, Connecticut--Whenever I make predictions for Connecticut, I fail to take into account the large Puerto Rican population. I'm guessing they played a large role in the state's underperformance, and in this part of Connecticut specifically.
Miami-Dade County, Florida-- From a 30-point Hillary win in 2016 to an 11-point Trump win in 2024. Has there ever been this big of a partisan shift in this short of a time from an area with this large of a population at any time in American history?
Palm Beach County, Florida--When it comes to House incumbents in the Sunshine State in danger of losing their seats moving forward, I would say the most vulnerable are not Republicans, but the three Democrats in previously deep blue Jewish strongholds. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz all prevailed by single-digit margins this year. We'll see if any of them are still in Congress after four more years of unfriendly demographic shifts.
Duval County, Florida--Four years ago, I'd hoped that the Jacksonville area would cancel out some of the Republican gains elsewhere in the state, but they flipped back to Trump this year too.
Lowndes County, Georgia--The closer you got to the Florida state line, the worse the Democratic numbers were compared to four years ago. The Valdosta area has been locked in place with the same modest GOP advantage for two generations now.
Latah County, Idaho--I didn't see this one coming. The home to the University of Idaho had been trending Democrat for a few cycles but swung hard the other direction this year, giving Trump an 8-point win.
Henderson County, Illinois--We're a generation removed from double-digit Democratic wins for Gore and Kerry in this small rural county across the Mississippi River from Burlington, Iowa. This year it went for Trump by nearly 40 (!) points. It's an extreme reminder that without Chicagoland, Illinois would be in as bad of shape for the Democrats as Iowa.
Lake County, Indiana--Holy hell! What's going on in northwestern Indiana?!? I was caught off balance when Biden won by "only" 13 points in the home of Gary. Four years later, Harris only wins by 5. All of northwest Indiana is a dumpster fire for Democrats, canceling out the gains in metropolitan Indianapolis and then some. Frank Mrvan is probably living on borrowed time. Any idea what's going on here? Demographic changes with black flight and white exurban growth?
Clinton County, Iowa--The Mississippi River Valley counties that were all blue in both Obama elections continued to stampede toward the Republicans this year. Clinton County, home of Rita Hart and a mid-sized industrial city, was Obama's second-strongest Iowa county in 2012 with a 20+ point win. Twelve years later, Trump won by nearly 20 points.
Sedgwick County, Kansas--All of the attention regarding the realignment of moderate Republicans in the Sunflower State tends to be in the Kansas City area, but Laura Kelly's gubernatorial victories wouldn't have happened if she hadn't also flipped Wichita. But it remains stubbornly red in federal races, shifting a point further in Trump's direction this year.
Kenton County, Kentucky--After Andy Beshear's 2023 re-election was made possible with substantial help from the conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati, it was reasonable to expect it might be the sort of place shifting anti-MAGA this year. Nothing doing. Every single one of Kentucky's 120 counties was redder than in 2020, including those that are home to the Cincinnati suburbs.
Cameron Parish, Louisiana--The coastal parish that's most representative of Louisiana Cajun country went twice for Bill Clinton and voted for Mary Landrieu as recently as 2008. Fast forward to 2024 and Donald Trump won the place with an eye-popping 93% of the vote. That's gotta make it the reddest "county" in the nation that ever voted for Bill Clinton.
St. James Parish, Louisiana--Over the last several cycles, one parish after another in the Mississippi Delta has been flipping red. Three more did this year in the Pelican State, including this one. Is black flight really that substantial there or is it just really low turnout among black voters?
Kennebec County, Maine--A generation ago, the counties that were home to Augusta, Lewiston, Waterville, and Auburn frequently went bluer than anywhere in coastal Maine. That's decidedly not the case anymore. Androscoggin County went Trump four years ago and Kennebec County joined them in 2024.
Bristol County, Massachusetts--Gore won this working-class enclave by more than 2-1 in 2000. Democratic support has been steadily plummeting since and held out for Harris by only 1 point in 2024. No Republican has won a single Massachusetts county in a Presidential election since 1988, but I bet Bristol County ends the streak in 2028.
Eaton County, Michigan--Part of the Lansing metro area, this county seems like it should be realigning in the Democratic column, but this year it voted against Harris, voted against their sitting Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin in her bid for the Senate, and voted for a Republican House member to replace Slotkin.
Macomb County, Michigan--Fifteen years after Democrats bailed out the U.S. auto industry from annihilation and 12 years after the Republicans ran a nominee for President vowing to "let Detroit go bankrupt", the county most associated with autoworkers rewards the party that saved their industry by giving Trump a 14-point win.
Blue Earth County, Minnesota--The hometown of Tim Walz seemed to go out of its way to humiliate him last month. In nearly 20 years of past elections with Walz on the ballot, Mankato delivered with above-average numbers for him. I'm truly at a loss as to what went so wrong here.
Marshall County, Mississippi--Technically not part of the Delta, I'm guessing this northern Mississippi county had more whites voting Democrat than most places in the Magnolia State back when it was going 60% Democrat not so long ago. It officially flipped to Trump this year after several cycles of accelerating decline. Not sure if it's Yellow Dog Democrats realigning or exurban sprawl from Memphis driving this fast change.
Jefferson County, Missouri--The southern St. Louis suburbs that were the core of Dick Gephardt's Congressional district went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, with Kerry only narrowly missing a win in 2004. Fast forward to 2024 and the county went 67-31 for Trump and 62-35 for Hawley. Not sure of the demographics here but am assuming they're comparable to Macomb County, Michigan, much more blue-collar than most modern suburbs.
Big Horn County, Montana--The home of the Crow Indian Reservation swung hard to the right and flipped to both Trump and Gianforte. But in a rare example of major ticket splitting, Jon Tester won it with 63% of the vote.
Clark County, Nevada--RIP Reid Machine. We had some great times together. Even in victory, Jacky Rosen did a point worse in Clark County than Joe Biden did four years ago, and Biden's win was considered uncomfortably close at the time. With no Senate race in 2026, I'll be curious to see if turnout is good enough to save the three House Democrats here.
Cheshire County, New Hampshire--The Granite State's bluest county not so long ago took a pretty decisive shift to the right this year. Harris won by a cool 10 points and Joyce Craig prevailed by an even cooler-yet 1 point. I expected a different election from northern New England this year.
Passaic County, New Jersey--There are quite a few localized examples of astonishing Hispanic collapse for Democrats in 2024. Many of them were pretty predictable, but I doubt the home of Paterson, New Jersey, flipping to Trump was on anybody's BINGO card this year.
Hudson County, New Jersey--Locals are gonna have to let me know if they think the congestion pricing debate fueled North Jersey's stampede to Trump even more than general Hispanic malaise and exhaustion with corruption by local Democratic incumbents.
San Miguel County, New Mexico--Unsurprisingly, the most heavily Hispanic rural counties of New Mexico collapsed for Democrats this year. I'm a bit surprised it was substantially less tangible in Albuquerque.
Queens County, New York--New York City's second-largest borough swung double-digits to Trump, giving Harris the wimpiest margin of any Presidential nominee since Michael Dukakis despite overwhelming and presumably Democrat-friendly demographic change since 1988.
Nassau County, New York--Speaking of Michael Dukakis, he was the last Democratic Presidential nominee to lose Nassau County on Long Island until Kamala Harris came around. Kirsten Gillibrand wasn't even able to hold off Michael Sapraicone here in the Senate race!
St. Lawrence County, New York--From the bottom of the Empire State to the top of it, here's another place that had been friendly to Democrats through the Clinton, Bush, and Obama years that has completely collapsed in the Elise Stefanik/Donald Trump years. They gave Trump an 18-point win and high single digits for Sapraicone.
Robeson County, North Carolina--I'd been witness to southeastern North Carolina's realignment for the last few cycles but will admit to being surprised that they're so far gone that even Mark Robinson was capable of a 13-point win in the land of Lumbees.
Union County, North Carolina--The fast-growing exurbs east of Charlotte seemed like a place ripe for a Democratic shift, but they shifted toward Trump, giving him over 60% of the vote, and gave Robinson a decisive win as well.
Pasquotank County, North Carolina--Rural northeastern North Carolina has been collapsing for Democrats about as badly as southeastern NC, but Elizabeth City is home to a black college and they still flipped to Trump and only barely held off Robinson. What's up with that?
Cass County, North Dakota--After a strong Heidi Heitkamp showing in 2018 and Biden coming within 3 points of victory two years later, it seemed like the Fargo area was poised to flip blue and not look back....at least until it swung back to a high-single-digit Trump win in 2024.
Stark County, Ohio--By now, I think we've come to terms with the fact that the Mahoning Valley is gone, but there are so many additional problem areas in Ohio. The county that was held up as Ohio's bellwether in the Bush and Obama years is....not such a bellwether anymore. Trump won it by 22 points and Moreno won it by 13 points.
Erie County, Ohio--Key to the Obama and Sherrod Brown coalitions in the Ohio of yesteryear was outright victory or diminished GOP margins in smaller industrial cities. In 2024, the long-time leanings of the Sandusky area shifted to a 14-point win for Trump, a 4-point win for Moreno and, most stunningly, a 6-point win for Derek Merrin over Marcy Kaptur!
Scioto County, Ohio--Another burned-out industrial area at the bottom of Ohio that never went for Gore, Kerry, or Obama, but none of those Democrats ever lost it by more than 5 points. Sherrod Brown won it twice in the past. How did they fare in 2024? Trump won it by 48 points and Moreno won it by 38 points.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania--Given how blue this county had become since the Bush years, it wasn't on my radar that it might flip back to Trump this year despite my overall bearishness about the Keystone State. It did flip though, with their Democratic Congressman being washed away in the red tide. Does the Stroudsburg area have a large Hispanic population?
Northampton County, Pennsylvania--When asked in October how I thought Northampton County would go this year, I predicted they'd split between Trump and Casey. I was half right, but wasn't pessimistic enough as David McCormick managed to beat Casey here too. And while they narrowly voted for Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild, it wasn't by enough to keep her in Congress.
Providence County, Rhode Island--Not that long ago, the Ocean State's most populous county was the key driver of the state's dark hue of Democratic blue. Now it lags the state average, with its population of Hispanics and ethnic whites increasingly receptive to the MAGA message.
Jasper County, South Carolina--Is it collapsing black population or an influx of wealthy whites buying coastal property driving the state's southernmost county so rapidly toward Republicans? It flipped and flipped hard this year, going from a 1-point Biden win in 2020 to a nearly 10-point Trump win in 2024.
Marion County, South Carolina--On the other side of South Carolina, the intense realignment to the GOP in the Lumberton-Rockingham region of North Carolina has not spared its neighbors on the other side of the state line. Biden won this county by more than 20 points. Harris by only 10. And its smaller neighboring counties like Dillon and Marlboro have either flipped entirely or most likely will next cycle.
Deuel County, South Dakota--The Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle coalitions of the Bush years are long gone, particularly the farm counties along the I-29 corridor. Most striking is this county bordering the heart of Minnesota's equally comatose Farmer-Labor region. Donald Trump got 75% of the vote here this year.
Hardeman County, Tennessee--The last majority-white county of rural Tennessee to flip was this county in the southwest part of the state, going red the first time Trump was on the ballot. This year, the third time Trump was on the ballot, he won this two-time Obama county by more than 24 points. Marsha Blackburn won by 27 points.
Webb County, Texas--Obviously, the Lone Star State could have 50 entries on this list, but it's hard to top the Laredo area swinging from a 23-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Henry Cuellar still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Hidalgo County, Texas--Perhaps the only Texas result more striking than the Democratic collapse in Webb County is a short distance down the Rio Grande River where another county with triple its population swung from a 17-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Vicente Gonzalez still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Orleans County, Vermont--The Green Mountain State certainly has a long way to go to revert back to its days as the bedrock stronghold of the Republican Party, but at least as it applies to Vermont's counties hugging the Canadian border, the reversion is well underway, flipping to Trump this year.
Loudoun County, Virginia--Remember the first "oh shit" moment you had on the evening of November 5, 2024, when it was undeniable that a night from hell was forthcoming? If you're like me, it was when Loudoun County was 100% reported and had shifted 8 points toward Trump compared to four years ago. Tim Kaine's numbers were way down too, above and beyond the inexplicable decline in the rest of northern Virginia.
Lafayette County, Wisconsin--Another terrible year for the counties in Wisconsin's Driftless Region just as is the case in the rest of the Midwestern Mississippi River Valley. The county that collapsed the hardest touches counties with Dane County. It went for Trump by 20 points and Eric Hovde by 12 points.
I think it's resolved now. I tried to post the whole thing as one comment but it said it was too large. Then I had to scramble to chop it up and it was a mess. I think now there's three posts but all different with no duplicates.
Locally I would add Pitkin, Eagle to the dissapointing counties, Still strong Dem performances but 5-7 point swings to the right. The low population south central CO counties you briefly mentioned Saguache, Conejos, Alamosa Costello and to a lesser extent Pueblo county all zoomed to the right, Saguache almost flipped. Most of these counties do not have too many people so it didn't move the needle statewide much.
Overperformance: Chaffee County, Harris won 55-42, Trump carried it 47-43 in 16.
Chaffee, Ouray, and San Juan have really exploded in Democrats' direction in the last few cycles. Presumably being inundated with demographics similar to Pitkin, Summit, Eagle, and San Miguel I presume.
All counties along NC coast, are getting less rural in nature. A lot of new comers there. When you pick out the shift in declining rural east NC, you go further inland coastal plains. Halifax, Edgecombe, Nash, etc. even Pitt county with ECU sitting there. Each has less total votes than 4 years ago.
On the booming coast, Even in Brunswick county on the other end of the coast, which showed a slight shift BLUE in percentage, Harris lost a whole lot more votes than Biden 4 years ago.
BTW, back in DKE days I mentioned the TWO coasts of North Carolina, the uplifting bluffs around Wilmington to SC, and the gradually sinking swampier OBX (or their population centers IBX). It seems the new retirees flowing there are different as well. Those to Wilmington areas are much more in the middle leaning slightly red, showing as a lot of NPA new registrations. Those to OBX are adding almost purely R registrations.
BTW, rural places in SC as a whole, had even bigger shift than the rural east in NC. It is just not in a battleground and less noted.
Used to be 2/3 of the R edge in SC are from 6 upstate counties along I85. Democrats are behind in other urban/suburban places, Lowcountry, Myrtle, Augusta and Charlotte exurbs, and slightly ahead in Columbia urban area, adding to the other 1/3. Rural small town SC which is only a bit over 1/4 of the state was almost always in parity, with a lot of Black voters.
This year, Harris didn’t lose Upstate much worse. But the deficits were only about half of the whole state. Slides a bit in other urban areas. The biggest drop from rural SC. Lost some 10pt, close to 65000 vote margin.
NC’s inner coastal plains are about twice this size. It only moved about 45000 vote margin. The whole GA “rural” moved about 70000 votes, that is including a lot of northern counties and coasts with significant inflows, which made them much less “rural” nature as the case of NC coasts.
Literally talking about the group of voters, the older ones among them saved Biden’s flailing 2020 primary campaign, and most of them came out in the general again in large numbers for him and Harrison.
Yet 4 years later, a 10pt margin means about 10% or more supposedly most loyal D voters just sat out.
I figured lethargic black turnout was perhaps the biggest issue as to why Trump had the best showing in South Carolina since George W. Bush in 1988....with the same probably true in Mississippi as well. On the other hand, I seem to recall reading that South Carolina was the only state to get "more white" during the last census.
I think SC and FL are the two with a significant increase of non Hispanic White population. Given FL is much larger and diverse, not surprised SC is the only one getting Whiter.
There were some counties with bad trends where I was surprised that they weren't even worse. I think the border issue hurt Harris in Arizona, but I didn't expect Pima and Cochise to have among the smallest red shifts. Dem numbers also largely collapsed in rez counties as they generally did in poorer areas nationwide (presumably mostly due to inflation) but Menominee county WI shifted less than 3 points toward Trump compared to about 6 nationally.
While things have gone to hell for Democrats in Madison County since the 2000s, Harris actually did a tick better than Biden did there four years ago. There weren't too many places in Illinois where that was the case this year.
True, but still nice to see the continued Democratic improvement in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal), which is now bluer than Peoria or Winnebago counties. And interesting that this was finally the election where Dems break 60% in Champaign County.
I decided to look at the Massachusetts results by town and compare the Presidential and Senate results. Overall Warren underperformed Harris by about 5.5%. (Harris got 1.5% more support than Warren, while Trump got 4% less than Dalton.) However, there was a striking difference in this margin from town to town. Overall Warren did much better in the working class and Hispanic areas, while Harris did much better in the bastions of wealth and privilege.
Not to disrespect your post, but was Massachusetts actually contested though? I can't believe that heavy campaigning took place at the statewide level of such a blue state
No, but that's not the point of my post. The data is still interesting I think since Warren and Harris represent different sides of the Democratic coalition.
Yes, Harris did better in working class areas where she fought to persuade those voters. And if we had nominated Warren or a similar left wing populist, we would have had to fight to persuade those wealthy suburbs.
I am not convinced that another nominee would have changed a single vote(I would argue that the election was always about Trump and perceived inflation)
I'm not trying to make the point that Warren (or Bernie) would have done better than Harris. (Especially since she did significantly worse overall.) I think the data is intrinsically interesting, which is why I shared it. If your interpretation of that data is that it's all about Trump, that's a possible explanation. Personally I think the D candidate did make a difference and to claim that it wouldn't have moved a single vote disregards what voters said both in polling and in focus group settings. That being said, Trump does have a tendency to suck up all the oxygen in the room, so voters' feelings about Harris, or another hypothetical nominee, had less weight than what they thought of Trump, but it still had an impact on their decision.
SEIZING DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES – and they are many!
In these dark times, it’s easy to become paralyzed by outrageous news and seemingly-insurmountable challenges. However, the key to remaining effective and building a brighter future is to seize opportunities – and they are there!
Below, I have detailed some concrete examples of our opportunities.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS: We need to fight with our best candidate even in longshot elections. Given Democrats’ recent 2024 wins and Trump plucking nominees from the House, Republicans have a historically narrow margin – a recipe for even greater chaos and paralysis than Johnson & Co have exhibited so far. And Democrats need to be loud about that and squeeze out every concession we can.
However, with skill and luck, the special elections also present a chance to flip the House and make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker already in 2025!
DON’T OBEY IN ADVANCE MEANS A DEM CANDIDATE IN EVERY RACE!
In 2024, Democrats left more than a thousand legislative races uncontested. That is political malpractice! For it is tantamount to conceding defeat and "obeying in advance". (Ref. Timothy Snyder in "On Tyranny") (The fact that Republicans failed to contest even more legislative seats, more than 1300, is NOT a mitigating fact.)
The Florida Democratic Party showed us how to do it: they made sure to run a candidate for every legislative seat! Florida Democrats are getting their mojo back.
Democrats need to duplicate that strategy in all 50 states.
STATE SUPREME COURTS: State supreme court seats are perhaps the most consequential downballot races in our elections – and yet they are often the most overlooked. This lever of power really matters. We can see how important Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s 2023 win was in Wisconsin! The now-liberal court ended some of America’s worst gerrymanders.
We need to make sure that we run the best candidates and best possible campaigns in every upcoming election for state supreme courts. Democrats should focus strongly on and invest resources in *every* such race.
Conversely, we see how costly our narrow loss was of the North Carolina Supreme Court was in 2020, which up until then had a liberal majority. The new conservative supreme court majority immediately overturned previous court decisions in a blatantly partisan fashion.
Tragically, Cheri Beasley lost by just 400 votes out of 5.4 million cast. Part of the story is that local election boards rejected more than 2000 specific absentee and provisional ballots.
Today, North Carolina Republicans are trying to steal Allison Riggs’ recent election victory for the State Supreme Court. Also, the Republican super-majority in the state legislature is trying to strip incoming Governor Josh Stein of key powers. Stopping those undemocratic power grabs is absolutely essential!
DEMOCRATIC TRIFECTAS REALLY MATTER! One of the best ways to show the contrast between Us and Them is to highlight the difference between what Democrats and Republicans do in states where they have a trifecta. That contrast is stark – and it should be publicized far and wide and loud!
With trifecta control of state government, Democrats accomplished incredible things in Michigan under Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and under Governor Tim Walz in Minnesota. (Compare that with e.g. DeSantis’ Florida or Abbott’s Texas.)
Unfortunately, Democrats just narrowly lost their trifectas in both Michigan and Minnesota.
Democratic trifectas are the recipe for getting good stuff done. These Blue states need to be our exhibition windows.
Despite the fact that Trump has transformed the Republican Party into the proto-Fascist MAGA Party, not all Republicans are on board with all of his policies. On specific issues, we can seize the opportunity to form some surprising alliances. For example:
Rand Paul (yes, him!) is deeply skeptical of Trump’s costly border and deportation plans. Importantly, Senator Paul can do something about it; he will chair the Senate committee that oversees the Department of Homeland Security. Because the border & deportation is Trump’s Priority No.1 for early 2025, Democrats can work with Senator Rand Paul to block, modify or slow-walk implementation of Trump’s inhumane policies. Destroying this keystone will politically weaken him, while strengthening us in other upcoming battles.
This article highlights Rand Paul’s views and is well worth reading.
Honestly, from a nakedly political angle and NOT from a humanitarian one, I hope the GOP gives Trump everything he wants re: the border/deportations. Here is why:
-Incoming Presidents always have a fair amount of political capital their first 100 days.
-I think if Trump is serious about what he wants to do, his political capital is depleted quickly, due to both a) Ensuing economic contraction and inflation that mass deportations will result in and b) The horrific images that will flood the news of families getting torn apart and children screaming for their moms/dads as ICE drags them away to the paddy wagon.
-Trump will be therefore weakened and wounded early and the Senate in particular would have the grounds to provide more robust pushback for his other wacky policy proposals (which cumulatively would negatively impact even more people)
-Border/deportations was by far the number #1 issue his campaign ran on; he was basically a resurrected Lewis Charles Levin. Speaking from a democratic standpoint, deportations is what Americans voted for-let them see the consequences of their actions.
100%, absolutely most let them "touch the hot stove" here. Worst thing Dems can do is gum up the works, give Trumpers the ability to back away from their absurd "promises" and effectively blame the powerless libs for it.
Because voters give us ABSOLUTELY NO CREDIT for being the adults in the room.
I get the intent here but I disagree on the political angle.
Political capital is ultimately finite. If it takes half a year to implement their core agenda that's a lot more politically damaging to them than if it takes a month.
I've mentioned in the past that a lot of the damage of doing things when in power is simply that things change as a consequence. I maintain that this is the biggest damage. But a significant, if smaller, cost is wrangling the party on board with any complex legislation. If Obamacare was brought up and passed in a single month it would have hurt us a lot less at the ballot box: that we spent months and months fighting over it (1) kept it in the news, leading to voters constantly being reminded about what was being done, and (2) brought the ideological ends of the party into direct conflict with each other.
We should absolutely force republicans to go through the same process. If they are 100% hellbent on deportations or ending the EPA or what have you, they will make it happen... eventually. And that eventually is important. Force them to fight for it, force them to focus only on their most damaging and least popular agenda items because they don't have time to move on to the more popular (or less unpopular, as it might be) items on the agenda. Force the less extremist republicans to come into conflict with the more extremist republicans. Make it so the news is constantly covering their horribly unpopular agenda for six months straight because they need to maneuver so many little details to avoid losing three votes in the house while fitting it within the rules of reconciliation. Force them to change the rules on filibusters.
Agendas don't become controversial automatically. They need to be opposed, they need to be fought, they need to be something that the public hears about constantly for months and start viewing in a critical angle regardless of their ideology.
This is especially important for democrats. One of our biggest disadvantages with voters, and especially our base, is people think the party isn't willing to fight. So many people think we're weak or that we're also fully bought by corporations. It is absolutely critical that we fight as hard and loudly as we can. The absolute worst thing we could do is avoid fighting to our fullest ability.
I'd concur if the issue was more broady amalagous and unpopular, like healthcare or gutting environmental/safety/labor regs. But what makes immigration different is the GOP position IS NOT unpopular with the electorate. So having it be in the news for the next 6 months when the GOP could be all John Wayne on the border if not for those bleeding heart Democrats, doesn't hurt the GOP . . it hurts Democrats.
"Repeal and replace" was popular (or at least near neutral) until republicans started to try and enact it, until it was in the news for months and months and more people had to mentally digest the actual consequences of it.
"One of our biggest disadvantages with voters, and especially our base, is people think the party isn't willing to fight. So many people think we're weak or that we're also fully bought by corporations. It is absolutely critical that we fight as hard and loudly as we can."
President Biden could and should have used the bully pulpit to name and shame the corporations that obscenely increased their profit margins during the pandemic, and in its aftermath.
And I do think it would have benefited Kamala Harris to more clearly and specifically attack corporate greedflation. That includes highlighting the difference in the rate increases of CEO wages & benefits and that of ordinary workers.
Also, just look at the pent-up rage that was released and aimed at insurance companies in the aftermath of the killing of that CEO. That rage could have been tapped during the presidential campaign!
This can be extended out to a broader point, I think.
It's hard to deny that we're in a populist era for politics, one that dems at the top are not leaning into sufficiently. Republicans are working with it by painting the weak and powerless as voters' enemies, punching down to get the electorate on board with them.
We have a wide opening to punch up, to attack the rich and the powerful, and paint them as our foil. We should take it and use it.
I would be careful what you wish for with deportations. The most likely scenario is that Trump proceeds with a controlled number of deportations, declares victory, and then proclaims the problem is solved. If he does, the economic fallout will be minimal and the deportations will be incredibly popular. Unless and until real hardships are felt by consumers because of deportations, Trump will be on the right side of popular opinion by proceeding with them.
We need to be a Greek chorus on this. Point out this is X-thousand out of Y-million, and fuel their own coalition's inherent tensions.
Don't let them avoid copping to their lies, no matter how blatantly obvious they are to anyone with their eyes open.
I honestly don't know what else to do. Just in no way repeating the "resistance" posture from 2017. That just f-cked us over even worse, in the medium-to-long term.
Well that's the whole question at the end of the day-does Trump believe in this issue strongly enough to go the Stephen Miller/Bannon route, or does he do basically a slightly harsher repeat of his prior Administration policy and not stick up the middle finger at the Business Roundtable groups that he both loathes and wishes he was a part of?
IMO tariffs are likelier to harm consumers more quickly and obviously than deportations, and it feels (to me at least) like protectionism bordering on mercantilism is the one thing Trump actually truly in his bones believes in policy wise
It's also something we have a harder time stopping as I understand things. There's more leeway for the executive to impose tariffs regardless of congress' input. Deportations and other matters generally at least require funding apportionment even when the executive branch generally can do them unilaterally.
I don’t have a problem with tariffs depending on the facts and if they’re done for economic reasons. Democrats worshipping at the altar of “free trade”/protecting capital over labor is a big reason why the party has slipped in the Midwest.
That would be the smart thing for him to do. Ironically if he were to do this the biggest problem he would have is pushback from his base that really believes that all undocumented immigrants should be deported, along with their children and they are willing to suffer economic pain to get this.
He could simply bring deportation figures back up to Obama levels and pass the border act he killed and he’d already be more hawkish than in his first term
One important thing you should notice - there is not a single group that turned out at a higher rate than 2020. This was not a surge of voters coming out for Trump (or Harris). It was less apathy among GOPs, especially Hispanics.
Here are the groups that dropped the most in turnout as a % of registration, relative to 2020. Note, they are primarily registered Dems, mostly younger, and more AAPI voters.
Trump and RFK Jr are also talking about eliminating America’s childhood vaccination program.
Somewhere in Russia, a team of schemers are congratulating themselves:
"Yes, we succeeded in re-electing our Agent Orange. Now we shall continue our destruction of America by bringing back Polio, Measles and many other wonderful diseases. Mr Putin will be very pleased!"
We shall see. Let's remember, most of the Republicans who were in the House and Senate during the attempted coup 4 years ago were terrified, and the intimidation worked.
I think if it comes down to them being otherwise able to pass extremist legislation that the filibuster will be tanked. McConnell won’t be in charge to protect it anymore and they’re all terrified of Trump.
If it’s just one or two things that squeak through the house it can survive. If they are able to get things out of the house over and over again, I expect otherwise.
Fortunately I do not think they will be very productive with a three seat house majority.
Only if Virginia Democrats are united. Already there are cries here about a Spanberger “coronation” for Governor. And the AG race is going to be a mess.
I’m very interested in NC’s US Senate election in 2026. Cooper seems more likely to run now than before this year’s election, but I’m also interested in our backups: Wiley Nickel is definitely running if Cooper doesn’t, but he might even try to run anyways. Personally, if Cooper sits it out, I’d prefer Jeff Jackson take a shot at it. However, I see him as more likely to run against Budd in ‘28.
Mecklenburg and Cabarrus Counties’ municipal elections next year and the General Assembly races in 2026 are also high priorities. As a local Democratic Party officer, the North Meck towns are important to me—we just took total control in Huntersville and have held Davidson for some time. Cornelius continues to be difficult, though. Our NC house district, HD98 flipped to the Dems by ~5%. Christy Clark (now Huntersville’s Mayor) won in ‘18 by a few hundred votes and John Bradford regained it in ‘20 by ~2000, before defeating her in ‘22 by ~650 (I managed her campaign that year).
Charlotte is safe for Dems, but City Councilman Tariq Bokhari (R) is likely to face his toughest race yet in the affluent District 6 now that Trump is back in office.
There are a couple issues I haven't heard discussed that I suspect are hurting us among younger male voters. The first is that young men are heavy into crypto and the crypto world is very pro-MAGA. The second issue is that the fitness community is also very pro-Trump. A large part of this is that this is an industry that is full of grifters selling medical vitamins and supplements. The second is that the fitness industry promotes toxic masculinity toward insecure young men. We are losing not on the issues, but because some of our potential voters are being grifted.
Among young people, women are getting the majority of college degrees and young men are much more likely to be hindered by criminal records and substance abuse problems. Therefore, the financial position of many young women is much better than that of their male peers. This is leading to a massive change in the power dynamic between young men and women and many younger men are responding by becoming sexists.
Yep, there’s the sense that men are being ignored and left behind by Democrats. Unfortunately throwing around terms like “sexist” and “patriarchy” only hasten their move to the Republican camp. We Democrats need to drop this “all White men have it made” and “White privilege” nonsense. It’s both false and bad politics.
Young people - particularly women - who dismiss the fact that men are now getting the minority of college degrees and the fact that there isn't nearly as much support for men who don't have built in advantages.
Ok, and how many of them are politicians, rather than random people? If the political dynamic is that voters don't blame the head of the Republican Party for being an actual convicted felon or anything else but their excuse for hating Democrats is something some random individuals say, we might as well give up and just accept that this country will be a violent fascist dictatorship.
Seems to me a significant part of the fitness community is women. I know more than a few who are into rock climbing, weight-lifting, crossfit, Yoga, hiking, skiing, very healthy eating (with wildly varied diets) etc.
Now, it may just be the nature of my social network, but not a single one of them is MAGA.
There's someone I follow on IG who might be a good example of a MAGA fitness guy. He's never hawked vitamins or supplements, he works a union job, and he supports environmental protection (though it's unclear how much of a role he thinks the government should have in that, or if he understands how much the government is needed in that). So theoretically, he should be a winnable voter for Democrats. But he's also complained that Democrats want too much government regulation (not sure how that jives with his support for environmental protection, but nobody ever said that American voters were consistent). And he appears to legitimately believe Trump when Trump claimed he wouldn't interfere with abortion rights in states where it's legal.
And unfortunately for us, this guy lives in Pennsylvania, and in a hotly contested swing district there as well. So his vote really has an impact.
Way too many Americans have this massive disconnect where they want things to happen, but they don't understand that government rules and regulations are the only way to actually make those things happen.
Possibly. That said a lot of the “wellness” world that’s women focused is also kind of grift adjacent. Essential oils, “natural” ingredients, etc. a lot of it isn’t wrong but a lot of it is snake oil-y and it’s often a gateway drug to RFK/Nicole Shanahan contrarianism
Crypto blockchains require a lot of computer technology, and, by extension, a lot of electricity, to maintain, so crypto might start hitting physical constraints, such as power grid capacity, sooner than later. Once that happens, the crypto bubble will burst, as, without the computer blockchains, crypto can't exist.
SCOTUS, believe it or not, recently declined a bid by Nvidia, a major maker of some of the computer chips used to make devices that power crypto blockchains, to invalidate a lawsuit over allegations it downplayed the role of the crypto bubble in its stock price surge. Nvidia's stock price completely tanking would probably be a leading indicator of a looming crypto collapse.
A plurality of American voters will never vote Republicans again, either, after their handling of Covid and ending abortion rights. Just hold your breath; the racist sexist idiots will snap out of it in 5,4,3,2,1 seconds...
Montana State Rep. Zooey Zephyr (D-Missoula) married Erin Reed, the writer of the Erin in the Morning Substack newsletter about issues affecting the transgender community, yesterday.
I was thinking of the killing of UnitedHealthcare's CEO and realizing that the online social media sentiment towards him was more about anger towards the healthcare insurance companies than the attacker, Luigi Mangione. However, Mr. Mangione has had back problems that never got resolved and according to CNN's Sanjay Gupta, the surgical operation in his view was botched. Therefore, there is an underlying problem to how Mangione carried out his attack even while I as a liberal don't like the fact that it had to come to killing a healthcare insurance CEO to make a point about the broken healthcare system.
That said, this whole attack in my view shows that there is potentially an opening in the 2026 midterms if it's about improving the healthcare system. I would venture to say that Democrats running on either a public healthcare or universal healthcare option in the midterms would potentially help them get traction.
Here is a thought: Democrats should propose legislation that bans provider networks. Just like when you have an accident abroad and invoke your travel insurance, you should be absolutely free also in the USA to freely choose your healthcare provider.
While health insurance companies might set a maximum coverage, they should NOT be able to limit which specific providers they pay – unless they are actually blacklisted.
I would also be bold by adding legislation that bans pharmaceutical companies selling directly to doctor practices, especially those who are psychiatrists (they are notorious for being under pressure by pharmaceutical companies). However, key organizations that certify and educate doctors can be sold to by pharmaceutical companies providing such companies.
All doctors should be independent and give their own judgment on the right course of action of treatment without being pressured to sell meds or any of that crap.
All in all though, a public healthcare option is still needed as it shakes up the whole system, allowing those who need coverage and who are not wealthy to be able to get it regardless of cost.
Here's a question for everyone over the weekend. Most Democrats are assuming (hoping?) that 2026 will be a Democratic wave year, just like 2018 was. In the 2018 House elections, there were a few surprise Democratic pickups that were not competitive in 2016 and that nobody expected to flip (the best examples are SC-01 and OK-05). My question is, if 2026 does end up being a Democratic wave, then what are some of our guesses for surprise Democratic flips this time that weren't competitive in this year's elections?
I anticipate IA will have 1-2 surprise pickups in the House for Democrats depending on the political environment heading to the 2026 midterms. Democrats could pick up two House seats in the state that were close in the 2024 elections and possibly get 1-2 more. IA-04 used to be closer as when Steve King was still in the House and went more nuts.
I think IA-01 and 3 are both decent targets, but both have been close/competitive enough that they wouldn't really be surprises. IA-02 is a possible surprise, and 4 is probably impossible since GOP primary voters yeeted King in 2020.
Miller-Meeks & Nunn should really be sitting ducks if 2026 is anything like 2006 or 2018!! 💙🇺🇲
Wouldn’t call beating Miller-Meeks and Nunn a “surprise pickup”. Hinson though, sure.
Right but the races that Democrats nearly won aren't what I'm referring to as surprise pickups.
IA-04 would be the biggest surprise pickup as it's the reddest House district in the state.
CO-05 if the floor really falls out in El Paso county. It was actually the best performing district for Republicans (55-41), Bobert slightly underperformed that in the 4th (54-42).
I think Boebert’s seat is a better target honestly given she won by less. Crank is pretty uncontroversial.
El Paso county actually moved Dem at the top of the ticket Boberts personal baggage is the only reason it was a 12 point race instead of 22. don’t see a path to victory there it’s essentially West Kansas which is why she moved over there in the first place and certain it was Trumps best seat in the state.
It’s actually mostly outer Denver suburbs. Douglas County which is very educated also shifted left and that’s about half the seat. The rural areas is only about a quarter of the seat and the rest are the other exurbs around Loveland.
The Dem would have to win Douglas by a substantial margin to offset the rurals and Weld County.
There’s also the Larimer portion.
I wanted to hear what districts others here had in mind before chiming in with my own. One district that definitely comes to my mind here is VA-01. As Mark mentioned above, the Richmond suburbs continue to trend Democratic - Harris +9 in Chesterfield is amazing, and Henrico would've swung Democratic as well if not for the turnout drop among African-Americans. The district also contains James City, which continues to trend Democratic, and even Hanover isn't quite as red as it once was. If the Dem could get solid margins out of Henrico, Chesterfield, James City, and Williamsburg, those areas might be able to outvote the rural counties of the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula. After all, the suburban areas in Henrico and Chesterfield are the same areas that helped Abigail Spanberger defeat Dave Brat in 2018.
Oops, I didn't see this comment before posting mine. I think a surprise pickup could also come from TX-24 or one of the other districts mentioned in this thread on DKE:
https://www.dailykos.com/comments/2137503/85046750#comment_85046750
Yeah, the 24th, along with the 38th, are pretty much the only Republican-held districts in Texas that don't include any deep-red rural counties to make them redder. I agree that Dems have a bright future in both of them.
One possibility is VA-01, especially if Republican support in the western suburbs of Richmond continues to erode. I could also see us winning VA-02 in 2026, but I wouldn't categorize that as a surprise flip that would come out of nowhere.
Great minds think alike!
I'm returning with my biannual analysis of counties that were pleasant surprises versus those that were unpleasant surprises for Democrats in Election 2024. I had to reformat a bit compared to prior cycles as finding "pleasant surprises" was an impossible task in more states than not no matter how much I twisted myself into a pretzel. Likewise, limiting myself to one unpleasant surprise per state was also beyond my capabilities in many states. My lists are a little less structured this year but I suspect you'll recognize the format.
Pleasant Surprises
Madison County, Alabama--Even as Alabama's PVI took a sharp right turn, its second largest county (I hadn't realized till now it surpassed Mobile County) barely moved and remained a single-digit Trump county. Given its demographics, I can foresee this county flipping in a strong Democratic cycle.
Saline County, Arkansas--Not sure if its increasing racial diversity or college-educated demographics, but this suburban Little Rock county was the Natural State's only county to shift in Harris's direction since 2020.
Mesa County, Colorado--Western Colorado's blue shift was a nice development overall, led by this population center. If Lauren Boebert had tried to win again in CO-03, I bet Adam Frisch would have beaten her this year.
Larimer County, Colorado--Heavily Hispanic jurisdictions swung to the right this year in Colorado as everywhere else, but at least in Colorado, it was largely offset by numerous population centers like the Fort Collins area with smaller Hispanic populations that trended blue.
Kent County, Delaware--We all remember Christine O'Donnell's 2010 Senate race as a national joke, but she still managed to win the county that's home to Delaware's capital city, which was a tough nut to crack back then. Fast forward to 2024 and Harris, Lisa Blunt Rochester, Sarah McBride, and Matt Meyer all pulled off victories here.
Cobb County, Georgia--If you go back only 10 years, it would have been hard to imagine that the suburban Atlanta county that was home to Newt Gingrich's old Congressional district would not only go for the Democratic Presidential nominee by double digits, but that it would be one of a small percentage of counties nationally that moved toward the Democrats in a difficult cycle.
Paulding County, Georgia--The western suburbs of Atlanta moved the most toward Harris this year, and while this one is still quite red, I don't think it's out of the question that it could flip blue by 2032 given its trendline.
Jackson County, Illinois--After a collapse for Biden in 2020, I figured the home of Carbondale would be a goner in 2024, easily flipping to Trump. Surprisingly, it got a full point bluer.
Hamilton County, Indiana--I know we were all hoping that Indianapolis' most populous suburban county would flip this year but it still moved toward Harris (along with neighboring Boone and Hendricks counties) in a year when not many places did.
Johnson County, Kansas--Again, we all hoped we'd see 2022 Sharice Davids numbers at the Presidential level this year, but the Sunflower State's most populous county still did its part and consolidated more moderate Republicans toward Harris compared to four years ago.
Sagadahoc County, Maine--Coastal Maine held up pretty well for Harris this year, which was less the case in upper New England than I expected. Sagadahoc was one of two counties to perform better for Harris than for Biden, and with or without Susan Collins on the ballot, we'll need it in two years.
Anne Arundel County, Maryland--It wasn't that long ago when this used to be bright red, holding out even for Bob Dole and John McCain. Not only did it go for Harris by double-digits this year, it's also the population core for a Democrat-held Congressional seat in MD-03.
Ottawa County, Michigan--The core of Michigan's Dutch Calvinist population, Ottawa County was the state's most Republican county for decades. It's still pretty bright red but it was the only population center in Michigan trending against Republicans in 2024.
Hennepin County, Minnesota--The city of Minneapolis and three rings of its western suburbs all held nearly as tight for Harris as they did for Biden four years ago, again offsetting Minnesota's red realignment outside of the metro area.
Sarpy County, Nebraska--While it didn't move enough to dump Don Bacon, it was one of four Nebraska counties to go for shadow Democrat Dan Osborn in the Senate race, making it clear that any potential winning Democratic coalition put together in Nebraska would almost certainly include Sarpy County.
Burlington County, New Jersey--In a state that was a dumpster fire for Democrats this year, Burlington County didn't slip as much as most places for Harris and native son Andy Kim improved upon Menendez's winning margin six years ago.
Los Alamos County, New Mexico--I'm guessing federal employment at the National Laboratory is driving the city/county's blue shift, but it's striking that we're now winning nearly 2-1 in a place that George W. Bush won twice.
Transylvania County, North Carolina--Perhaps the flooding disaster significantly reduced turnout among the more rural jurisdictions of western North Carolina, but I was still surprised to see the region trended toward Harris compared to four years ago. This county in particular was the most surprising to see in the Josh Stein column.
Montgomery County, Ohio--Even as one industrial city after another in the Buckeye State collapses for Democrats, the party keeps managing to hang on in the Dayton area with another narrow win for Harris after a narrow win for Biden four years ago.
Deschutes County, Oregon--Very quickly went from a McCain-Romney county to a double-digit Harris county.
Erie County, Pennsylvania--Given the horrific trendline of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, I figured we'd do quite a bit worse here. Harris didn't win, but Casey pulled it out, which is better than I expected.
Presidio County, Texas--What's their secret? Nearly every RGV border county shifted double digits toward Trump, with the majority of the counties flipping outright. Presidio County shifted only 2 points toward Trump and still went nearly 2-1 Biden.
Utah County, Utah--Even though it's still more than 2-1 Trump, the home of Brigham Young University once again trended toward Harris even as the country (and to a lesser extent the state) trended toward Trump.
Chesterfield County, Virginia--One of the few unambiguously positive developments of this election cycle was the continued blue shift in the Richmond area, helping to offset the unexpected contraction of Democratic support in northern Virginia.
Clark County, Washington--It took a while for Portland's political influence to be felt on the Washington side of the river but we're finally starting to see sustained Democratic improvement in the Vancouver area, so much so that we've nailed down a difficult House seat two cycles in a row.
Clallam County, Washington--One of the counties that has long been a Presidential bellwether breaks its tradition and goes Democrat when the nation goes Republican.
Door County, Wisconsin--The other county often cited as a Presidential bellwether also stays in the Democratic column as the nation goes the other direction.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin--The Harris campaign massively overestimated the number of NeverTrump Republican votes that hadn't already flipped to Biden four years ago, but I suppose given how Republican it was compared to other demographically similar suburban areas elsewhere in the country, it makes some degree of sense that suburban Milwaukee was one of the few places on the map where Harris actually found some more Trump-skeptical Republicans.
Presidio County is apparently a very artsy area, and the people that attracts have kept the county heavily Democratic.
Regarding Union County, NC, I also found it odd that it swung Republican, especially considering that the less educated suburban county to the west, Gaston, swung Democratic. I had thought it would be the other way around.
And Jasper County, SC's Republican shift is because a lot of white people are moving in. Harris actually got almost a thousand more votes than Biden there. It's just that Trump increased his vote total by about 2,800 votes.
Thanks for that clarification, especially about Jasper County, SC.
In the DMV, I'd also honourably mention:
Frederick County, MD: never went Dem for president between 1964 and 2020, and Harris did nearly as well as Biden. Also helped to keep a supposedly competitive open congressional seat blue, by a not-that-close 6 points district-wide. (Fun fact: this is the first presidential race since 1860 in which a Republican won nationally but not in Frederick County.)
Virginia Beach: same as Frederick County in 1960s-2010s presidential voting. Biden flipped and Harris (narrowly) held the state's largest city and second largest jurisdiction, after Fairfax County. However, Jen Kiggans kept it and her district red for the House.
What's amazing about this election is Harris held to Biden margins or improved in many of what would've been considered the "bellweathers" of several swing states (particularly GA and WI) and still lost. For example, if you'd told me Harris would definitely improve in Cobb/Paulding in Georgia, I would've thought Harris had the state in the bag.
Deschutes is booooming. Not quite to the extent of the 2010s but Bend is still a very hot area for the “mountain-biking and beer” set
At least this year expanding OR-05 to include Deschutes/Bend Democrats finally paid off. Doing so also brought a significant number of rural Republicans into the district, helping flip it red in 2022 and probably pissing off most of its Portland-area voters.
Yes. It’s sprinting left but just hadn’t quite gotten there two years ago
The counties surrounding Asheville NC have been moving left for a while.
Since when? They were more likely to vote Democrats in the 1990s and 2000s than since. Heath Shuler was the last Democrat to win most of those counties until Josh Stein last month.
I would say at least from Early 2010. Older time the Democratic coalition there was way different, I think you know that. :)
Madison County is where the City of Huntsville is located and it happens to be the most populated city in Alabama. This is a good sign as going far back as in 2014 the Alabama Democratic Party was literally in ruins.
I know in AL, it as a state has a heavy defense and military business sector, particularly with contractors working for the Department of Defense.
Biggest Disappointments
Apache County, Arizona--As badly as Democrats were rebuked by Hispanic voters this year, it appears based on county-level reports that they also took it on the chin with indigenous voters, with one of the clearest examples coming from this key swing state.
Yuma County, Arizona--Hillary came within a couple points of victory here in 2016. Eight years later, Trump +20. I'm sure there will be plenty who will insist until till their last breath that it had nothing to do with the border though just as they insisted when we saw the first big GOP shift in border counties four years ago.
Mississippi County, Arkansas--Long-time Yellow Dog Democrat stronghold with large black population that was a two-time near miss for Obama. Nearly 2-1 for Trump in 2024, exemplifying the magnitude of Democrats' problems in Arkansas. Not sure if black voters are leaving, realigning, or not showing up in disproportionate numbers for things to have gotten this bad. Perhaps a combination of the three.
Imperial County, California--Right up there with Webb County, TX, in the competition for the biggest Democratic collapse in the country among counties with a population of more than 50,000. It went from a 20+ point Biden win to an outright Trump victory in only four years.
San Bernardino County, California--Twenty years of Democratic progress in the Inland Empire erased in one cycle. Goes from a double-digit Biden win in 2020 to a 2024 Trump victory.
San Joaquin County, California--The first Central Valley county to flip blue (Jerry McNerney flipped the seat in 2006) also shifts double-digits toward the GOP for both Trump and Garvey. Kind of amazing House Democrats held up so well in California given the collapse at the top of the ticket.
Adams County, Colorado--Two regions of Colorado shifted to the right in 2024. The first was the rural southern part of the state. The second was the northeastern part of the Denver metro area. Both are heavily Hispanic. The shift to the GOP could possibly have cost us a House seat in CO-03. The shift to the GOP definitely cost us a House seat in CO-08.
New Haven County, Connecticut--Whenever I make predictions for Connecticut, I fail to take into account the large Puerto Rican population. I'm guessing they played a large role in the state's underperformance, and in this part of Connecticut specifically.
Miami-Dade County, Florida-- From a 30-point Hillary win in 2016 to an 11-point Trump win in 2024. Has there ever been this big of a partisan shift in this short of a time from an area with this large of a population at any time in American history?
Palm Beach County, Florida--When it comes to House incumbents in the Sunshine State in danger of losing their seats moving forward, I would say the most vulnerable are not Republicans, but the three Democrats in previously deep blue Jewish strongholds. Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz all prevailed by single-digit margins this year. We'll see if any of them are still in Congress after four more years of unfriendly demographic shifts.
Duval County, Florida--Four years ago, I'd hoped that the Jacksonville area would cancel out some of the Republican gains elsewhere in the state, but they flipped back to Trump this year too.
Lowndes County, Georgia--The closer you got to the Florida state line, the worse the Democratic numbers were compared to four years ago. The Valdosta area has been locked in place with the same modest GOP advantage for two generations now.
Latah County, Idaho--I didn't see this one coming. The home to the University of Idaho had been trending Democrat for a few cycles but swung hard the other direction this year, giving Trump an 8-point win.
Henderson County, Illinois--We're a generation removed from double-digit Democratic wins for Gore and Kerry in this small rural county across the Mississippi River from Burlington, Iowa. This year it went for Trump by nearly 40 (!) points. It's an extreme reminder that without Chicagoland, Illinois would be in as bad of shape for the Democrats as Iowa.
Lake County, Indiana--Holy hell! What's going on in northwestern Indiana?!? I was caught off balance when Biden won by "only" 13 points in the home of Gary. Four years later, Harris only wins by 5. All of northwest Indiana is a dumpster fire for Democrats, canceling out the gains in metropolitan Indianapolis and then some. Frank Mrvan is probably living on borrowed time. Any idea what's going on here? Demographic changes with black flight and white exurban growth?
Clinton County, Iowa--The Mississippi River Valley counties that were all blue in both Obama elections continued to stampede toward the Republicans this year. Clinton County, home of Rita Hart and a mid-sized industrial city, was Obama's second-strongest Iowa county in 2012 with a 20+ point win. Twelve years later, Trump won by nearly 20 points.
Sedgwick County, Kansas--All of the attention regarding the realignment of moderate Republicans in the Sunflower State tends to be in the Kansas City area, but Laura Kelly's gubernatorial victories wouldn't have happened if she hadn't also flipped Wichita. But it remains stubbornly red in federal races, shifting a point further in Trump's direction this year.
Kenton County, Kentucky--After Andy Beshear's 2023 re-election was made possible with substantial help from the conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati, it was reasonable to expect it might be the sort of place shifting anti-MAGA this year. Nothing doing. Every single one of Kentucky's 120 counties was redder than in 2020, including those that are home to the Cincinnati suburbs.
Cameron Parish, Louisiana--The coastal parish that's most representative of Louisiana Cajun country went twice for Bill Clinton and voted for Mary Landrieu as recently as 2008. Fast forward to 2024 and Donald Trump won the place with an eye-popping 93% of the vote. That's gotta make it the reddest "county" in the nation that ever voted for Bill Clinton.
St. James Parish, Louisiana--Over the last several cycles, one parish after another in the Mississippi Delta has been flipping red. Three more did this year in the Pelican State, including this one. Is black flight really that substantial there or is it just really low turnout among black voters?
Kennebec County, Maine--A generation ago, the counties that were home to Augusta, Lewiston, Waterville, and Auburn frequently went bluer than anywhere in coastal Maine. That's decidedly not the case anymore. Androscoggin County went Trump four years ago and Kennebec County joined them in 2024.
Bristol County, Massachusetts--Gore won this working-class enclave by more than 2-1 in 2000. Democratic support has been steadily plummeting since and held out for Harris by only 1 point in 2024. No Republican has won a single Massachusetts county in a Presidential election since 1988, but I bet Bristol County ends the streak in 2028.
Eaton County, Michigan--Part of the Lansing metro area, this county seems like it should be realigning in the Democratic column, but this year it voted against Harris, voted against their sitting Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin in her bid for the Senate, and voted for a Republican House member to replace Slotkin.
Macomb County, Michigan--Fifteen years after Democrats bailed out the U.S. auto industry from annihilation and 12 years after the Republicans ran a nominee for President vowing to "let Detroit go bankrupt", the county most associated with autoworkers rewards the party that saved their industry by giving Trump a 14-point win.
Blue Earth County, Minnesota--The hometown of Tim Walz seemed to go out of its way to humiliate him last month. In nearly 20 years of past elections with Walz on the ballot, Mankato delivered with above-average numbers for him. I'm truly at a loss as to what went so wrong here.
Marshall County, Mississippi--Technically not part of the Delta, I'm guessing this northern Mississippi county had more whites voting Democrat than most places in the Magnolia State back when it was going 60% Democrat not so long ago. It officially flipped to Trump this year after several cycles of accelerating decline. Not sure if it's Yellow Dog Democrats realigning or exurban sprawl from Memphis driving this fast change.
Jefferson County, Missouri--The southern St. Louis suburbs that were the core of Dick Gephardt's Congressional district went for Gore in 2000 and Obama in 2008, with Kerry only narrowly missing a win in 2004. Fast forward to 2024 and the county went 67-31 for Trump and 62-35 for Hawley. Not sure of the demographics here but am assuming they're comparable to Macomb County, Michigan, much more blue-collar than most modern suburbs.
Big Horn County, Montana--The home of the Crow Indian Reservation swung hard to the right and flipped to both Trump and Gianforte. But in a rare example of major ticket splitting, Jon Tester won it with 63% of the vote.
Clark County, Nevada--RIP Reid Machine. We had some great times together. Even in victory, Jacky Rosen did a point worse in Clark County than Joe Biden did four years ago, and Biden's win was considered uncomfortably close at the time. With no Senate race in 2026, I'll be curious to see if turnout is good enough to save the three House Democrats here.
Cheshire County, New Hampshire--The Granite State's bluest county not so long ago took a pretty decisive shift to the right this year. Harris won by a cool 10 points and Joyce Craig prevailed by an even cooler-yet 1 point. I expected a different election from northern New England this year.
Passaic County, New Jersey--There are quite a few localized examples of astonishing Hispanic collapse for Democrats in 2024. Many of them were pretty predictable, but I doubt the home of Paterson, New Jersey, flipping to Trump was on anybody's BINGO card this year.
Hudson County, New Jersey--Locals are gonna have to let me know if they think the congestion pricing debate fueled North Jersey's stampede to Trump even more than general Hispanic malaise and exhaustion with corruption by local Democratic incumbents.
San Miguel County, New Mexico--Unsurprisingly, the most heavily Hispanic rural counties of New Mexico collapsed for Democrats this year. I'm a bit surprised it was substantially less tangible in Albuquerque.
Queens County, New York--New York City's second-largest borough swung double-digits to Trump, giving Harris the wimpiest margin of any Presidential nominee since Michael Dukakis despite overwhelming and presumably Democrat-friendly demographic change since 1988.
Nassau County, New York--Speaking of Michael Dukakis, he was the last Democratic Presidential nominee to lose Nassau County on Long Island until Kamala Harris came around. Kirsten Gillibrand wasn't even able to hold off Michael Sapraicone here in the Senate race!
St. Lawrence County, New York--From the bottom of the Empire State to the top of it, here's another place that had been friendly to Democrats through the Clinton, Bush, and Obama years that has completely collapsed in the Elise Stefanik/Donald Trump years. They gave Trump an 18-point win and high single digits for Sapraicone.
Robeson County, North Carolina--I'd been witness to southeastern North Carolina's realignment for the last few cycles but will admit to being surprised that they're so far gone that even Mark Robinson was capable of a 13-point win in the land of Lumbees.
Union County, North Carolina--The fast-growing exurbs east of Charlotte seemed like a place ripe for a Democratic shift, but they shifted toward Trump, giving him over 60% of the vote, and gave Robinson a decisive win as well.
Pasquotank County, North Carolina--Rural northeastern North Carolina has been collapsing for Democrats about as badly as southeastern NC, but Elizabeth City is home to a black college and they still flipped to Trump and only barely held off Robinson. What's up with that?
Cass County, North Dakota--After a strong Heidi Heitkamp showing in 2018 and Biden coming within 3 points of victory two years later, it seemed like the Fargo area was poised to flip blue and not look back....at least until it swung back to a high-single-digit Trump win in 2024.
Stark County, Ohio--By now, I think we've come to terms with the fact that the Mahoning Valley is gone, but there are so many additional problem areas in Ohio. The county that was held up as Ohio's bellwether in the Bush and Obama years is....not such a bellwether anymore. Trump won it by 22 points and Moreno won it by 13 points.
Erie County, Ohio--Key to the Obama and Sherrod Brown coalitions in the Ohio of yesteryear was outright victory or diminished GOP margins in smaller industrial cities. In 2024, the long-time leanings of the Sandusky area shifted to a 14-point win for Trump, a 4-point win for Moreno and, most stunningly, a 6-point win for Derek Merrin over Marcy Kaptur!
Scioto County, Ohio--Another burned-out industrial area at the bottom of Ohio that never went for Gore, Kerry, or Obama, but none of those Democrats ever lost it by more than 5 points. Sherrod Brown won it twice in the past. How did they fare in 2024? Trump won it by 48 points and Moreno won it by 38 points.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania--Given how blue this county had become since the Bush years, it wasn't on my radar that it might flip back to Trump this year despite my overall bearishness about the Keystone State. It did flip though, with their Democratic Congressman being washed away in the red tide. Does the Stroudsburg area have a large Hispanic population?
Northampton County, Pennsylvania--When asked in October how I thought Northampton County would go this year, I predicted they'd split between Trump and Casey. I was half right, but wasn't pessimistic enough as David McCormick managed to beat Casey here too. And while they narrowly voted for Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild, it wasn't by enough to keep her in Congress.
Providence County, Rhode Island--Not that long ago, the Ocean State's most populous county was the key driver of the state's dark hue of Democratic blue. Now it lags the state average, with its population of Hispanics and ethnic whites increasingly receptive to the MAGA message.
Jasper County, South Carolina--Is it collapsing black population or an influx of wealthy whites buying coastal property driving the state's southernmost county so rapidly toward Republicans? It flipped and flipped hard this year, going from a 1-point Biden win in 2020 to a nearly 10-point Trump win in 2024.
Marion County, South Carolina--On the other side of South Carolina, the intense realignment to the GOP in the Lumberton-Rockingham region of North Carolina has not spared its neighbors on the other side of the state line. Biden won this county by more than 20 points. Harris by only 10. And its smaller neighboring counties like Dillon and Marlboro have either flipped entirely or most likely will next cycle.
Deuel County, South Dakota--The Tim Johnson and Tom Daschle coalitions of the Bush years are long gone, particularly the farm counties along the I-29 corridor. Most striking is this county bordering the heart of Minnesota's equally comatose Farmer-Labor region. Donald Trump got 75% of the vote here this year.
Hardeman County, Tennessee--The last majority-white county of rural Tennessee to flip was this county in the southwest part of the state, going red the first time Trump was on the ballot. This year, the third time Trump was on the ballot, he won this two-time Obama county by more than 24 points. Marsha Blackburn won by 27 points.
Webb County, Texas--Obviously, the Lone Star State could have 50 entries on this list, but it's hard to top the Laredo area swinging from a 23-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Henry Cuellar still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Hidalgo County, Texas--Perhaps the only Texas result more striking than the Democratic collapse in Webb County is a short distance down the Rio Grande River where another county with triple its population swung from a 17-point Biden win to a 2-point Trump win. Kind of amazing Vicente Gonzalez still found a way to win. He probably won't for much longer.
Orleans County, Vermont--The Green Mountain State certainly has a long way to go to revert back to its days as the bedrock stronghold of the Republican Party, but at least as it applies to Vermont's counties hugging the Canadian border, the reversion is well underway, flipping to Trump this year.
Loudoun County, Virginia--Remember the first "oh shit" moment you had on the evening of November 5, 2024, when it was undeniable that a night from hell was forthcoming? If you're like me, it was when Loudoun County was 100% reported and had shifted 8 points toward Trump compared to four years ago. Tim Kaine's numbers were way down too, above and beyond the inexplicable decline in the rest of northern Virginia.
Lafayette County, Wisconsin--Another terrible year for the counties in Wisconsin's Driftless Region just as is the case in the rest of the Midwestern Mississippi River Valley. The county that collapsed the hardest touches counties with Dane County. It went for Trump by 20 points and Eric Hovde by 12 points.
Just FYI, these two comments are double-posted.
I think it's resolved now. I tried to post the whole thing as one comment but it said it was too large. Then I had to scramble to chop it up and it was a mess. I think now there's three posts but all different with no duplicates.
Appreciate you taking the time to put these together.
Locally I would add Pitkin, Eagle to the dissapointing counties, Still strong Dem performances but 5-7 point swings to the right. The low population south central CO counties you briefly mentioned Saguache, Conejos, Alamosa Costello and to a lesser extent Pueblo county all zoomed to the right, Saguache almost flipped. Most of these counties do not have too many people so it didn't move the needle statewide much.
Overperformance: Chaffee County, Harris won 55-42, Trump carried it 47-43 in 16.
Chaffee, Ouray, and San Juan have really exploded in Democrats' direction in the last few cycles. Presumably being inundated with demographics similar to Pitkin, Summit, Eagle, and San Miguel I presume.
All counties along NC coast, are getting less rural in nature. A lot of new comers there. When you pick out the shift in declining rural east NC, you go further inland coastal plains. Halifax, Edgecombe, Nash, etc. even Pitt county with ECU sitting there. Each has less total votes than 4 years ago.
On the booming coast, Even in Brunswick county on the other end of the coast, which showed a slight shift BLUE in percentage, Harris lost a whole lot more votes than Biden 4 years ago.
BTW, back in DKE days I mentioned the TWO coasts of North Carolina, the uplifting bluffs around Wilmington to SC, and the gradually sinking swampier OBX (or their population centers IBX). It seems the new retirees flowing there are different as well. Those to Wilmington areas are much more in the middle leaning slightly red, showing as a lot of NPA new registrations. Those to OBX are adding almost purely R registrations.
BTW, rural places in SC as a whole, had even bigger shift than the rural east in NC. It is just not in a battleground and less noted.
Used to be 2/3 of the R edge in SC are from 6 upstate counties along I85. Democrats are behind in other urban/suburban places, Lowcountry, Myrtle, Augusta and Charlotte exurbs, and slightly ahead in Columbia urban area, adding to the other 1/3. Rural small town SC which is only a bit over 1/4 of the state was almost always in parity, with a lot of Black voters.
This year, Harris didn’t lose Upstate much worse. But the deficits were only about half of the whole state. Slides a bit in other urban areas. The biggest drop from rural SC. Lost some 10pt, close to 65000 vote margin.
NC’s inner coastal plains are about twice this size. It only moved about 45000 vote margin. The whole GA “rural” moved about 70000 votes, that is including a lot of northern counties and coasts with significant inflows, which made them much less “rural” nature as the case of NC coasts.
Literally talking about the group of voters, the older ones among them saved Biden’s flailing 2020 primary campaign, and most of them came out in the general again in large numbers for him and Harrison.
Yet 4 years later, a 10pt margin means about 10% or more supposedly most loyal D voters just sat out.
I figured lethargic black turnout was perhaps the biggest issue as to why Trump had the best showing in South Carolina since George W. Bush in 1988....with the same probably true in Mississippi as well. On the other hand, I seem to recall reading that South Carolina was the only state to get "more white" during the last census.
I think SC and FL are the two with a significant increase of non Hispanic White population. Given FL is much larger and diverse, not surprised SC is the only one getting Whiter.
Pasquotank county in northeast NC was particularly galling this year
There were some counties with bad trends where I was surprised that they weren't even worse. I think the border issue hurt Harris in Arizona, but I didn't expect Pima and Cochise to have among the smallest red shifts. Dem numbers also largely collapsed in rez counties as they generally did in poorer areas nationwide (presumably mostly due to inflation) but Menominee county WI shifted less than 3 points toward Trump compared to about 6 nationally.
Forking depressing, ain't it?
Madison County, Illinois should be on the list of biggest Dem disappointments, and so should Will County.
While things have gone to hell for Democrats in Madison County since the 2000s, Harris actually did a tick better than Biden did there four years ago. There weren't too many places in Illinois where that was the case this year.
True, but still nice to see the continued Democratic improvement in McLean County (Bloomington/Normal), which is now bluer than Peoria or Winnebago counties. And interesting that this was finally the election where Dems break 60% in Champaign County.
I decided to look at the Massachusetts results by town and compare the Presidential and Senate results. Overall Warren underperformed Harris by about 5.5%. (Harris got 1.5% more support than Warren, while Trump got 4% less than Dalton.) However, there was a striking difference in this margin from town to town. Overall Warren did much better in the working class and Hispanic areas, while Harris did much better in the bastions of wealth and privilege.
Top Warren overperformances:
Lawrence – 23.1%
Revere – 9.1%
Chelsea – 8.5%
Everett – 8.1%
Lynn – 7.1%
Fall River – 5.7%
New Bedford – 5.6%
Lowell – 5.3%
Springfield – 5.2%
North Adams – 3.9%
Top Harris overperformances:
Dover – 24.3%
Weston – 21.6%
Wellesley – 21.6%
Sherborn – 21.6%
Cohasset – 21.0%
Medfield – 19.4%
Hingham – 18.9%
Gosnold – 18.6%
Wenham – 17.7%
Manchester-by-the-Sea – 17.5%
Not to disrespect your post, but was Massachusetts actually contested though? I can't believe that heavy campaigning took place at the statewide level of such a blue state
No, but that's not the point of my post. The data is still interesting I think since Warren and Harris represent different sides of the Democratic coalition.
Yes, Harris did better in working class areas where she fought to persuade those voters. And if we had nominated Warren or a similar left wing populist, we would have had to fight to persuade those wealthy suburbs.
I am not convinced that another nominee would have changed a single vote(I would argue that the election was always about Trump and perceived inflation)
I'm not trying to make the point that Warren (or Bernie) would have done better than Harris. (Especially since she did significantly worse overall.) I think the data is intrinsically interesting, which is why I shared it. If your interpretation of that data is that it's all about Trump, that's a possible explanation. Personally I think the D candidate did make a difference and to claim that it wouldn't have moved a single vote disregards what voters said both in polling and in focus group settings. That being said, Trump does have a tendency to suck up all the oxygen in the room, so voters' feelings about Harris, or another hypothetical nominee, had less weight than what they thought of Trump, but it still had an impact on their decision.
I think a male nominee not named Biden would have done better
Not really surprising as Warren has always gone out of her way to make an economically populist pitch.
SEIZING DEMOCRATIC OPPORTUNITIES – and they are many!
In these dark times, it’s easy to become paralyzed by outrageous news and seemingly-insurmountable challenges. However, the key to remaining effective and building a brighter future is to seize opportunities – and they are there!
Below, I have detailed some concrete examples of our opportunities.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS: We need to fight with our best candidate even in longshot elections. Given Democrats’ recent 2024 wins and Trump plucking nominees from the House, Republicans have a historically narrow margin – a recipe for even greater chaos and paralysis than Johnson & Co have exhibited so far. And Democrats need to be loud about that and squeeze out every concession we can.
However, with skill and luck, the special elections also present a chance to flip the House and make Hakeem Jeffries Speaker already in 2025!
DON’T OBEY IN ADVANCE MEANS A DEM CANDIDATE IN EVERY RACE!
In 2024, Democrats left more than a thousand legislative races uncontested. That is political malpractice! For it is tantamount to conceding defeat and "obeying in advance". (Ref. Timothy Snyder in "On Tyranny") (The fact that Republicans failed to contest even more legislative seats, more than 1300, is NOT a mitigating fact.)
The Florida Democratic Party showed us how to do it: they made sure to run a candidate for every legislative seat! Florida Democrats are getting their mojo back.
Democrats need to duplicate that strategy in all 50 states.
STATE SUPREME COURTS: State supreme court seats are perhaps the most consequential downballot races in our elections – and yet they are often the most overlooked. This lever of power really matters. We can see how important Justice Janet Protasiewicz’s 2023 win was in Wisconsin! The now-liberal court ended some of America’s worst gerrymanders.
We need to make sure that we run the best candidates and best possible campaigns in every upcoming election for state supreme courts. Democrats should focus strongly on and invest resources in *every* such race.
Conversely, we see how costly our narrow loss was of the North Carolina Supreme Court was in 2020, which up until then had a liberal majority. The new conservative supreme court majority immediately overturned previous court decisions in a blatantly partisan fashion.
Tragically, Cheri Beasley lost by just 400 votes out of 5.4 million cast. Part of the story is that local election boards rejected more than 2000 specific absentee and provisional ballots.
https://apnews.com/article/state-elections-north-carolina-elections-courts-voting-f306377fbc13ff2675ee33b897750de2
Today, North Carolina Republicans are trying to steal Allison Riggs’ recent election victory for the State Supreme Court. Also, the Republican super-majority in the state legislature is trying to strip incoming Governor Josh Stein of key powers. Stopping those undemocratic power grabs is absolutely essential!
DEMOCRATIC TRIFECTAS REALLY MATTER! One of the best ways to show the contrast between Us and Them is to highlight the difference between what Democrats and Republicans do in states where they have a trifecta. That contrast is stark – and it should be publicized far and wide and loud!
With trifecta control of state government, Democrats accomplished incredible things in Michigan under Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and under Governor Tim Walz in Minnesota. (Compare that with e.g. DeSantis’ Florida or Abbott’s Texas.)
Unfortunately, Democrats just narrowly lost their trifectas in both Michigan and Minnesota.
Democratic trifectas are the recipe for getting good stuff done. These Blue states need to be our exhibition windows.
SEEK BIPARTISAN OBSTRUCTION OF TRUMP’s AGENDA
Despite the fact that Trump has transformed the Republican Party into the proto-Fascist MAGA Party, not all Republicans are on board with all of his policies. On specific issues, we can seize the opportunity to form some surprising alliances. For example:
Rand Paul (yes, him!) is deeply skeptical of Trump’s costly border and deportation plans. Importantly, Senator Paul can do something about it; he will chair the Senate committee that oversees the Department of Homeland Security. Because the border & deportation is Trump’s Priority No.1 for early 2025, Democrats can work with Senator Rand Paul to block, modify or slow-walk implementation of Trump’s inhumane policies. Destroying this keystone will politically weaken him, while strengthening us in other upcoming battles.
This article highlights Rand Paul’s views and is well worth reading.
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/13/rand-paul-trump-thune-border-immigration
Honestly, from a nakedly political angle and NOT from a humanitarian one, I hope the GOP gives Trump everything he wants re: the border/deportations. Here is why:
-Incoming Presidents always have a fair amount of political capital their first 100 days.
-I think if Trump is serious about what he wants to do, his political capital is depleted quickly, due to both a) Ensuing economic contraction and inflation that mass deportations will result in and b) The horrific images that will flood the news of families getting torn apart and children screaming for their moms/dads as ICE drags them away to the paddy wagon.
-Trump will be therefore weakened and wounded early and the Senate in particular would have the grounds to provide more robust pushback for his other wacky policy proposals (which cumulatively would negatively impact even more people)
-Border/deportations was by far the number #1 issue his campaign ran on; he was basically a resurrected Lewis Charles Levin. Speaking from a democratic standpoint, deportations is what Americans voted for-let them see the consequences of their actions.
100%, absolutely most let them "touch the hot stove" here. Worst thing Dems can do is gum up the works, give Trumpers the ability to back away from their absurd "promises" and effectively blame the powerless libs for it.
Because voters give us ABSOLUTELY NO CREDIT for being the adults in the room.
I get the intent here but I disagree on the political angle.
Political capital is ultimately finite. If it takes half a year to implement their core agenda that's a lot more politically damaging to them than if it takes a month.
I've mentioned in the past that a lot of the damage of doing things when in power is simply that things change as a consequence. I maintain that this is the biggest damage. But a significant, if smaller, cost is wrangling the party on board with any complex legislation. If Obamacare was brought up and passed in a single month it would have hurt us a lot less at the ballot box: that we spent months and months fighting over it (1) kept it in the news, leading to voters constantly being reminded about what was being done, and (2) brought the ideological ends of the party into direct conflict with each other.
We should absolutely force republicans to go through the same process. If they are 100% hellbent on deportations or ending the EPA or what have you, they will make it happen... eventually. And that eventually is important. Force them to fight for it, force them to focus only on their most damaging and least popular agenda items because they don't have time to move on to the more popular (or less unpopular, as it might be) items on the agenda. Force the less extremist republicans to come into conflict with the more extremist republicans. Make it so the news is constantly covering their horribly unpopular agenda for six months straight because they need to maneuver so many little details to avoid losing three votes in the house while fitting it within the rules of reconciliation. Force them to change the rules on filibusters.
Agendas don't become controversial automatically. They need to be opposed, they need to be fought, they need to be something that the public hears about constantly for months and start viewing in a critical angle regardless of their ideology.
This is especially important for democrats. One of our biggest disadvantages with voters, and especially our base, is people think the party isn't willing to fight. So many people think we're weak or that we're also fully bought by corporations. It is absolutely critical that we fight as hard and loudly as we can. The absolute worst thing we could do is avoid fighting to our fullest ability.
I'd concur if the issue was more broady amalagous and unpopular, like healthcare or gutting environmental/safety/labor regs. But what makes immigration different is the GOP position IS NOT unpopular with the electorate. So having it be in the news for the next 6 months when the GOP could be all John Wayne on the border if not for those bleeding heart Democrats, doesn't hurt the GOP . . it hurts Democrats.
"Repeal and replace" was popular (or at least near neutral) until republicans started to try and enact it, until it was in the news for months and months and more people had to mentally digest the actual consequences of it.
Same deal here.
This!
"One of our biggest disadvantages with voters, and especially our base, is people think the party isn't willing to fight. So many people think we're weak or that we're also fully bought by corporations. It is absolutely critical that we fight as hard and loudly as we can."
President Biden could and should have used the bully pulpit to name and shame the corporations that obscenely increased their profit margins during the pandemic, and in its aftermath.
And I do think it would have benefited Kamala Harris to more clearly and specifically attack corporate greedflation. That includes highlighting the difference in the rate increases of CEO wages & benefits and that of ordinary workers.
Also, just look at the pent-up rage that was released and aimed at insurance companies in the aftermath of the killing of that CEO. That rage could have been tapped during the presidential campaign!
This can be extended out to a broader point, I think.
It's hard to deny that we're in a populist era for politics, one that dems at the top are not leaning into sufficiently. Republicans are working with it by painting the weak and powerless as voters' enemies, punching down to get the electorate on board with them.
We have a wide opening to punch up, to attack the rich and the powerful, and paint them as our foil. We should take it and use it.
I would be careful what you wish for with deportations. The most likely scenario is that Trump proceeds with a controlled number of deportations, declares victory, and then proclaims the problem is solved. If he does, the economic fallout will be minimal and the deportations will be incredibly popular. Unless and until real hardships are felt by consumers because of deportations, Trump will be on the right side of popular opinion by proceeding with them.
We need to be a Greek chorus on this. Point out this is X-thousand out of Y-million, and fuel their own coalition's inherent tensions.
Don't let them avoid copping to their lies, no matter how blatantly obvious they are to anyone with their eyes open.
I honestly don't know what else to do. Just in no way repeating the "resistance" posture from 2017. That just f-cked us over even worse, in the medium-to-long term.
Well that's the whole question at the end of the day-does Trump believe in this issue strongly enough to go the Stephen Miller/Bannon route, or does he do basically a slightly harsher repeat of his prior Administration policy and not stick up the middle finger at the Business Roundtable groups that he both loathes and wishes he was a part of?
IMO tariffs are likelier to harm consumers more quickly and obviously than deportations, and it feels (to me at least) like protectionism bordering on mercantilism is the one thing Trump actually truly in his bones believes in policy wise
It's also something we have a harder time stopping as I understand things. There's more leeway for the executive to impose tariffs regardless of congress' input. Deportations and other matters generally at least require funding apportionment even when the executive branch generally can do them unilaterally.
I don’t have a problem with tariffs depending on the facts and if they’re done for economic reasons. Democrats worshipping at the altar of “free trade”/protecting capital over labor is a big reason why the party has slipped in the Midwest.
Correct. Though I’m surprised unilateral tariff authority is constitutional seeing as it’s a tax and thus within the purview of Congress
The thing is, if Trump does that, his base won't think the problem is solved because they'll still hear Spanish spoken in their towns.
That would be the smart thing for him to do. Ironically if he were to do this the biggest problem he would have is pushback from his base that really believes that all undocumented immigrants should be deported, along with their children and they are willing to suffer economic pain to get this.
He could simply bring deportation figures back up to Obama levels and pass the border act he killed and he’d already be more hawkish than in his first term
Tom Bonior is breaking down the New Jersey vote.
One important thing you should notice - there is not a single group that turned out at a higher rate than 2020. This was not a surge of voters coming out for Trump (or Harris). It was less apathy among GOPs, especially Hispanics.
Here are the groups that dropped the most in turnout as a % of registration, relative to 2020. Note, they are primarily registered Dems, mostly younger, and more AAPI voters.
https://x.com/tbonier/status/1868018227047178733
https://x.com/tbonier/status/1867763332184518815
The more the candidates listening to the likes of Tom, the sooner they can turn New Jersey into a battleground.
Yet another deranged and terrible policy idea from Donald Trump is on the horizon: He is eyeing the privatization of the USPS.
Such a move would impact rural areas, which heavily voted for him, the most.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/14/trump-united-states-postal-service-privatization
Trump and RFK Jr are also talking about eliminating America’s childhood vaccination program.
Somewhere in Russia, a team of schemers are congratulating themselves:
"Yes, we succeeded in re-electing our Agent Orange. Now we shall continue our destruction of America by bringing back Polio, Measles and many other wonderful diseases. Mr Putin will be very pleased!"
It would be their biggest coup in favor of disease since when they convinced some developing nations that HIV/AIDS was an American bioweapon.
Perhaps we should be rename Robert F Kennedy Jr’s department as the Disease Efficiency Advancement Department (DEAD).
Needs congressional sign-off and they will never do that.
You're really sure what the Republicans' limits are?
With a tiny House majority and privatization screwing over rural mail delivery . . Yes.
We shall see. Let's remember, most of the Republicans who were in the House and Senate during the attempted coup 4 years ago were terrified, and the intimidation worked.
They don’t have the votes to break a filibuster even if it gets by their 3 seat House majority
I think if it comes down to them being otherwise able to pass extremist legislation that the filibuster will be tanked. McConnell won’t be in charge to protect it anymore and they’re all terrified of Trump.
If it’s just one or two things that squeak through the house it can survive. If they are able to get things out of the house over and over again, I expect otherwise.
Fortunately I do not think they will be very productive with a three seat house majority.
Lots of talk here about 2026. Let’s grab the opportunities that present themselves already next year! Her are some
. "Consequential State Elections to Watch In 2025".
https://www.democracydocket.com/analysis/consequential-state-elections-to-watch-in-2025/
They forgot to mention Sherrill and Gottheimer for some reason.
With a Republican in the White House, and the candidates in question, I think Virginia will be a fairly easy pickup.
Only if Virginia Democrats are united. Already there are cries here about a Spanberger “coronation” for Governor. And the AG race is going to be a mess.
I’m very interested in NC’s US Senate election in 2026. Cooper seems more likely to run now than before this year’s election, but I’m also interested in our backups: Wiley Nickel is definitely running if Cooper doesn’t, but he might even try to run anyways. Personally, if Cooper sits it out, I’d prefer Jeff Jackson take a shot at it. However, I see him as more likely to run against Budd in ‘28.
Mecklenburg and Cabarrus Counties’ municipal elections next year and the General Assembly races in 2026 are also high priorities. As a local Democratic Party officer, the North Meck towns are important to me—we just took total control in Huntersville and have held Davidson for some time. Cornelius continues to be difficult, though. Our NC house district, HD98 flipped to the Dems by ~5%. Christy Clark (now Huntersville’s Mayor) won in ‘18 by a few hundred votes and John Bradford regained it in ‘20 by ~2000, before defeating her in ‘22 by ~650 (I managed her campaign that year).
Charlotte is safe for Dems, but City Councilman Tariq Bokhari (R) is likely to face his toughest race yet in the affluent District 6 now that Trump is back in office.
There are a couple issues I haven't heard discussed that I suspect are hurting us among younger male voters. The first is that young men are heavy into crypto and the crypto world is very pro-MAGA. The second issue is that the fitness community is also very pro-Trump. A large part of this is that this is an industry that is full of grifters selling medical vitamins and supplements. The second is that the fitness industry promotes toxic masculinity toward insecure young men. We are losing not on the issues, but because some of our potential voters are being grifted.
Sexism is an issue.
Among young people, women are getting the majority of college degrees and young men are much more likely to be hindered by criminal records and substance abuse problems. Therefore, the financial position of many young women is much better than that of their male peers. This is leading to a massive change in the power dynamic between young men and women and many younger men are responding by becoming sexists.
This dynamic is much much more evident among African-Americans and Latinos. I suspect that this in part explains our struggles in those communities.
Considering the hardline social conservatism in large parts of both communities, it is no surprise though.
Yep, there’s the sense that men are being ignored and left behind by Democrats. Unfortunately throwing around terms like “sexist” and “patriarchy” only hasten their move to the Republican camp. We Democrats need to drop this “all White men have it made” and “White privilege” nonsense. It’s both false and bad politics.
That's a caricature, isn't it? Who says all white men have it made? That's obviously false and idiotic.
Young people - particularly women - who dismiss the fact that men are now getting the minority of college degrees and the fact that there isn't nearly as much support for men who don't have built in advantages.
Ok, and how many of them are politicians, rather than random people? If the political dynamic is that voters don't blame the head of the Republican Party for being an actual convicted felon or anything else but their excuse for hating Democrats is something some random individuals say, we might as well give up and just accept that this country will be a violent fascist dictatorship.
Definitely agreed.
Seems to me a significant part of the fitness community is women. I know more than a few who are into rock climbing, weight-lifting, crossfit, Yoga, hiking, skiing, very healthy eating (with wildly varied diets) etc.
Now, it may just be the nature of my social network, but not a single one of them is MAGA.
There's someone I follow on IG who might be a good example of a MAGA fitness guy. He's never hawked vitamins or supplements, he works a union job, and he supports environmental protection (though it's unclear how much of a role he thinks the government should have in that, or if he understands how much the government is needed in that). So theoretically, he should be a winnable voter for Democrats. But he's also complained that Democrats want too much government regulation (not sure how that jives with his support for environmental protection, but nobody ever said that American voters were consistent). And he appears to legitimately believe Trump when Trump claimed he wouldn't interfere with abortion rights in states where it's legal.
And unfortunately for us, this guy lives in Pennsylvania, and in a hotly contested swing district there as well. So his vote really has an impact.
Way too many Americans have this massive disconnect where they want things to happen, but they don't understand that government rules and regulations are the only way to actually make those things happen.
Possibly. That said a lot of the “wellness” world that’s women focused is also kind of grift adjacent. Essential oils, “natural” ingredients, etc. a lot of it isn’t wrong but a lot of it is snake oil-y and it’s often a gateway drug to RFK/Nicole Shanahan contrarianism
I'm at a bit of a loss as to how we could improve on those issues with that demographic.
I suspect that when the crypto bubble bursts we will get back a lot of the victims of the crypto scams.
I've been waiting a long time on that bubble.
Crypto blockchains require a lot of computer technology, and, by extension, a lot of electricity, to maintain, so crypto might start hitting physical constraints, such as power grid capacity, sooner than later. Once that happens, the crypto bubble will burst, as, without the computer blockchains, crypto can't exist.
SCOTUS, believe it or not, recently declined a bid by Nvidia, a major maker of some of the computer chips used to make devices that power crypto blockchains, to invalidate a lawsuit over allegations it downplayed the role of the crypto bubble in its stock price surge. Nvidia's stock price completely tanking would probably be a leading indicator of a looming crypto collapse.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-supreme-court-tosses-case-involving-securities-fraud-suit-against-nvidia-2024-12-11/
A plurality of American voters will never vote Republicans again, either, after their handling of Covid and ending abortion rights. Just hold your breath; the racist sexist idiots will snap out of it in 5,4,3,2,1 seconds...
Crypto is good for crypto-fascists and only appeals to an elite slice of the “young” electorate.
Crypto is Amway for incels
Montana State Rep. Zooey Zephyr (D-Missoula) married Erin Reed, the writer of the Erin in the Morning Substack newsletter about issues affecting the transgender community, yesterday.
Photos by Florida State Rep. Anna Eskamani (D-Orlando): https://www.instagram.com/p/DDlneuoM1tK/?img_index=1&igsh=MTFoeTJiZjFocXNsbw==
Regarding the 2026 midterms:
I was thinking of the killing of UnitedHealthcare's CEO and realizing that the online social media sentiment towards him was more about anger towards the healthcare insurance companies than the attacker, Luigi Mangione. However, Mr. Mangione has had back problems that never got resolved and according to CNN's Sanjay Gupta, the surgical operation in his view was botched. Therefore, there is an underlying problem to how Mangione carried out his attack even while I as a liberal don't like the fact that it had to come to killing a healthcare insurance CEO to make a point about the broken healthcare system.
That said, this whole attack in my view shows that there is potentially an opening in the 2026 midterms if it's about improving the healthcare system. I would venture to say that Democrats running on either a public healthcare or universal healthcare option in the midterms would potentially help them get traction.
Any thoughts?
Here is a thought: Democrats should propose legislation that bans provider networks. Just like when you have an accident abroad and invoke your travel insurance, you should be absolutely free also in the USA to freely choose your healthcare provider.
While health insurance companies might set a maximum coverage, they should NOT be able to limit which specific providers they pay – unless they are actually blacklisted.
Interesting thought!
I would also be bold by adding legislation that bans pharmaceutical companies selling directly to doctor practices, especially those who are psychiatrists (they are notorious for being under pressure by pharmaceutical companies). However, key organizations that certify and educate doctors can be sold to by pharmaceutical companies providing such companies.
All doctors should be independent and give their own judgment on the right course of action of treatment without being pressured to sell meds or any of that crap.
All in all though, a public healthcare option is still needed as it shakes up the whole system, allowing those who need coverage and who are not wealthy to be able to get it regardless of cost.